Eyes Of the Guru - NFC Preseason Report

  Posted 8/7 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Hello again IDP junkies and welcome to the 11th edition (part two) of the preseason Eyes of the Guru. This time I'll be covering the NFC. If your looking for in depth coverage on the defensive side of the ball you have come to the right place. No one covers the game better than The Football Guys and I am proud that both I and the EOTG are part of the team. You will find nothing but fantasy football in this report. No contract talk, no police reports. Only the stuff that matters.

For reference, when I mention where guys finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the recently updated Football Guys scoring system which is nearly identical to the North American Fantasy Football Addicts (NAFFA) league I have run for the past 11 years. Feel free to check it out. Defensive scoring in this league is the standard stuff but keep in mind rankings will vary a bit from league to league. From time to time I will reference the "rookie corner rule". Those of you who are familiar with the EOTG report know what that is. For those who are new, the rookie corner rule is basically the fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie at corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses thus these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Most often these guys are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon) and their numbers will begin to drop sharply after their rookie seasons. When I mention tackle numbers, I do not lump assists and solo tackles together. Unless I make a reference one way or the other, I am talking about solo tackles. This will likely be the last you hear from me before the season opens so I want to wish everyone the best of luck. Starting with week 1, I will be doing a weekly version of the EOTG that will run through week 17. The season is almost here so lets get this going.

Philadelphia Eagles

Defensive Line

The Eagles are firm believers in rotating defensive linemen to keep everyone fresh both in the 4th quarter of games and in the 4th quarter of the season. Injuries effected their plan last year and helped to give us strong production from Trent Cole, but there were some side effects that really hurt down the stretch. Philly entered '06 with Jevon Kearse and Darren Howard as the unquestioned starters at defensive end while Cole and Juqua Thomas were suppose to spell them every other series. The plan began to crumble almost immediately when Kearse barely made it out of training camp before tearing up his knee in week 2. The injury promoted Cole to starter and boosted former 1st round pick Jerome McDougle into a place in the rotation. When McDougle failed to perform, that plan was quickly tossed aside as well. By the end of September it was pretty much Cole and Howard with Thomas spelling them once in a while in a 3 man rotation. This worked out great for Cole, at least for a while. The second year pro went on a tear posting 34 solo tackles and 8 sacks by week 11, prompting the club to sign him to a lucrative contract extension. Unfortunately for the Eagles and those fantasy owners who had grown to depend on him, Cole hit a wall starting in week 12. Maybe he was worn down from playing full time and maybe there was some other explanation but Cole sure went in the tank down the stretch. Over the final 6 games he produced just 9 tackles and no sacks. When the season ended Cole was a top 15 defensive lineman but the late season plunge brings up some big questions... McDougle is gone, Kearse's knee wasn't as bad as originally thought and the club used a second round pick on Victor Abiamiri. So basically we have the same situation and same game plan heading into this season. The only question now is where does everyone fit in the grand scheme of things? Kearse is reportedly healthy and looking great. He'll be ready for training camp and probably ready to resume the starters role. It's just hard to get excited about him at this point. On the upside, he was absolutely on fire in the two games he played last season, recording 3.5 sacks in about 7 quarters of action. On the downside, Kearse has seemingly been fighting one injury or another for ever. He has neither played a full season nor reached double digits in sacks since '01, and hasn't come near 40 tackles since his rookie campaign in 99. Kearse did manage 15 starts for the Eagles in '05 when he put up 35-3-8 and forced three fumbles. Those are respectable overall numbers but they don't reflect his true value, or rather lack of. He slipped into the top 30 that season but was wildly inconsistent. Three of those sacks came in one contest with only one coming after week 11. He recorded 2 or fewer tackles 10 times and twice failed to make a single stop. There are a lot of people who will be too high on him this year based on name recognition and/or the reports of how strong he is looking. Don't be one of those people... Howard was far from impressive last season. He managed to stay healthy but at just 23-12-5, he sure didn't give the Eagles much bang for all their bucks, and he was nothing short of a complete bust in fantasy terms. Maybe the Eagles and the fantasy masses just expected too much from him. In 7 pro seasons he has never put up more than 36 tackles and posted 6 or fewer sacks 4 times. Between a healthy Kearse, a productive and very well paid Cole and a very disappointing first season in Eagle green, Howard may end up working with the rookie on the 2nd DL... Barring injuries, there is very little chance that Abiamiri will see time as a starter but if he performs well at all he will get on the field regularly. He was very productive at Notre Dame though a lot of his numbers came against lesser competition. He's a smart, durable, hard worker who stands up well against the run but needs to be more polished and add some more moves to be successful as a pass rusher at the pro level. There's nothing wrong with this kid that can't be fixed with a little good coaching... In the past Philly has use a lot of players on the inside as well but in '06 they got away from that plan. Mike Patterson and Darwin Walker were the headliners with first round pick Broderick Bunkley and veteran Sam Rayburn seeing very little action. Despite finishing second on the team with 8 sacks, Walker was traded to the Bills and Rayburn was sent packing. The Walker move was based on the all mighty dollar as much as anything but the fact that they had a first round pick in Bunkley sitting on the bench, certainly made the decision easier. The Eagles style of play doesn't call for a wide body type so they restocked the shelves with former Bear Ian Scott and former Colt Montae Reagor. These guys fit the mold of 280 pound "athletes" who are quick and mobile. After last year it's hard to say if Peterson and Bunkley will be spelled often but there is clearly a drop off in talent to the new backups. If they play full time, either of the starters may prove to be a decent option for owners who start tackles. However, it's been a long time since an Eagles interior lineman reached 40 solo stops, and with Walker gone they have no proven pass rush threat on the inside. Patterson has 38 solo stops in each of his two season and might be worthy as a backup while Bunkley can be called a sleeper just because he's an unknown, but the bottom line here is that we would probably be better served to look elsewhere.

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Jevon Kearse - Inconsistency/injury concerns, might make decent depth
  
• DE Darren Howard - Depth at best
  
• DE Trent Cole - Potential top 15 but there are risks
  
• DE Victor Abiamiri - Injury/dynasty sleeper
  
• DT Mike Patterson - Depth for owners who must start tackles
  
• DT Broderick Bunkley - Sleeper for owners who must have tackles
  
• DT Montae Reagor - Minimal value at best
  
• DT Ian Scott - Injury sleeper for tackle required leagues

Linebacker

The Eagles have invested several first day draft picks in linebackers over the past three seasons but it's '06 fifth rounder Omar Gaither that fantasy owners need to know about. Especially dynasty owners. Gaither logged a considerable amount of playing time last season including a starting assignment at WLB over the team's final 7 games. In 5 of those games he recorded at least 5 solo stops and 3 times he posted double digit fantasy points. It's no secret that the coaches like this kid so when the club traded for Takeo Spikes and announced that he will start on the weak side, they quietly slid Gaither over to the middle where there are a growing number of people who believe he is the future of the position. There have even been grumblings about him possibly starting ahead of Jeremiah Trotter at some point this season. Trotter has served the Eagles well but it's commonly known that the organization is pushing for improvement at the linebacker positions. He has been a solid run stuffer over the years but has never excelled in coverage, and has become somewhat of a liability of late. More importantly, he just doesn't make enough game changing plays. The Eagles let him walk once before then brought him back in '04 when they were desperate for someone to stop the run. If they believe Gaither is their future, they might just do it again. Chances are Trotter will have a significant roll this year. He may even have good numbers, but he will be big risk and a 2 down player at best. Gaither is expected to compete for the nickel LB job and will probably start by pairing with Spikes on passing downs. Who knows where it goes from there. One thing we do know is that the MLB position in Philly can be an absolute fantasy gold mine. In five of six seasons as their starter, Trotter has totaled 88 or more solo stops and twice hit triple digits. He put up 88 last year despite not playing on passing downs for much of the season. Gaither might be a sleeper steal as early as this season. At the least he's a very good late round sleeper with a lot of potential and a serious dynasty candidate. He'll be flying under the radar in most leagues so know your competition and grab this guy at the right time... Spikes is an interesting prospect here. He's never been a tackling machine but when healthy he is a serious big play contributor. The problem is he hasn't been healthy since '04. That season Spikes only made 64 solo tackles but still managed a top 10 finish due to 4 sacks, having a hand in 9 takeaways and defending 18 passes. It's a big stretch to think he can come close to those numbers again but Spikes has the ability to be a very good player if healthy and used to the best of his talents. He had to pass a physical before the trade could be official so the Eagles obviously believe he is fine. Some question if he ever be the same player after the Achilles injury in '05? All I know is that there are a lot of NFL players who have recovered from the same injury. My guess is yes. We just need to see what the coaches plan to do with him... Last year's third round pick Chris Gocong is the leading candidate for the SLB job but will have to hold of this year's third round pick Stewart Bradley to hold onto it. Neither of these guys are likely candidates to win one of the nickel jobs and Eagles SLBs just don't produce in the box scores... One other very important note, Eagles statistics keepers are very stingy with assists. Trotter for example, has 190 solo tackles over the past two seasons but only 44 assists. If your scoring counts tackles and assists the same, Eagles players are going to take a hit.

Fantasy Prospects

• MLB Jeremiah Trotter - Probably a decent backup, possibly a third starter
  
• MLB Omar Gaither - Sleeper/Dynasty alert
  
• WLB Takeo Spikes - Sleeper, potential top 25 who will be overlooked
  
• SLB Chris Gocong - No value
  
• SLB Bradley Stewart - Deep sleeper at best

Defensive Back

Pro-Bowls are nothing new to Brian Dawkins who has been voted to several of them. What is new to him is the sudden surge of tackle production. He is entering his 12th season yet in each of the past two has set new career highs in tackle solo tackles. Maybe that has something to do with the state of the team and maybe he is just being used a little differently at this point in his career but one thing is certain, it sure boosts his value. Dawkins is no stranger to the top 12 of the fantasy rankings but in the past he has gotten there with weak and/or inconsistent tackle numbers, boosted by a lot of big plays. Because he was so inconsistent I always considered him to be over rated. Dawkins is going very early in a lot of drafts this season and after 70+ tackles and top 10 finishes in each of the past two seasons, who can blame them. At this late stage of his career Dawkins remains one of the best free safeties in the game. Most importantly to us, he seems to have finally beaten the inconsistency bug. Over the past 32 games Dawkins has reached 5 fantasy points 25 times and has hit 9 or more 13 times. He'll be 34 this season but has shown no signs of slowing down and has missed just 1 start in 3 seasons. It's simply hard to find a reason not to put him among the top 10 on any DB list... Six games into last season Eagles coaches decided to move Sean Considine past Michael Lewis into the starting lineup. According to the team, Lewis just didn't provide the speed and athleticism that they desired and Considine does. Lewis is a much more physical presence who makes a big contribution in run support. Considine is a smaller, more athletic, finesse type, who is much better in coverage. Considine may be better suited for where the coaching staff wants to go but one has to wonder how much the absence of Lewis contributed to the team's 26th rating versus the run? From a numbers perspective Considine may be more valuable than he is given credit for in most fantasy circles. People will glance at his 60 solo stops and pass him bye. We need to look a little closer though. He didn't take over the starting job until week 7. In the 12 games he played (including the playoffs) he totaled 54 solo stops, defended 5 passes, had a sack and a half and had a hand in 4 takeaways. He totaled 6 or more fantasy points in 8 of those 12 games. Project those numbers over a full season and you get 72 tackles with enough big play contribution to make him a decent 3rd starter at the least. And don't overlook the fact that Lewis made 21 tackles even after being replaced. Some of those numbers should come to Considine as well... Anyone looking for help at corner is not going to find it here. Both Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown have been mainstays for the Eagles at corner for the past 4 seasons. Between them they have 2 top 50 fantasy rankings and one season with over 50 tackles. For the record, all of those belong to Brown who led the team's corners last season with only 37 tackles. 

Fantasy Prospects

• FS Brian Dawkins - Quality #1 starter
  
• SS Sean Considine - Sleeper who is flying was under the radar
  
• CB Lito Sheppard- No value
  
• CB Sheldon Brown- Minimal value at best for owner who use corners
  
• CB Josellio Hanson - Injury sleeper for owners who must start corners

New York Giants

Defensive Line

It's pretty rare for a club to place 2 players in the top 10 at any given position and it's nearly unheard of for one team to boast 2 in the top 5. The Giants were able to do it in '05 when Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora pulled off that trick. Unfortunately neither of them fared so well last season when both missed significant time with injuries. Strahan has been an ageless wonder but he'll be 36 in November and is coming off as second season ending injury in the past three years. Reports over the offseason have consistently claimed that he probably won't be ready for, or will be limited at the beginning of training camp. Of course Strahan claims to be completely healthy and still the best in the game. I don't know about either of those claims at this point but if he is 90% he's going to be a very good player. As of "press time", Strahan has not reported to camp and there are a lot of rumors swirling that he is considering retirement. At this time the club is looking at their options, one of which may be to sign recently released Simeon Rice. This could get interesting. Is Strahan really hanging up the cleats or is this a ploy to keep the veteran out of training camp for a couple of extra weeks? Proceed with caution if you draft before any better intelligence becomes available... A very talented Umenyiora exploded for 48 tackles, 14.5 sacks and a #2 finish in '05 but don't put on blinders that keep you from seeing beyond that one great year. He doesn't come without a little risk. In 4 pro seasons he has missed 14 games and played a full schedule just once. In 11 games last Season Umenyiora was on pace for a mark of 34-10-8.5. Granted there were a lot of extenuating circumstances surrounding that situation and he played at less that 100% late in the season. I'm not trying to scare anyone away from Umenyiora and I believe he will recapture a top 10 spot, but there is enough concern to drop him out of my top 5. Especially if Strahan isn't ready to go on the other side... With Kiwanuka shifting to SLB Justin Tuck once again becomes the top backup at end. At least he's projected to be at this point. The '05 third round pick hasn't shown much thus far. After seeing action in 14 games as a rookie with 26 tackles and 1 sack, Tuck missed most of last season with an injury similar but apparently worse than Strahan's. Tuck has been practicing some but is not full speed and may not be ready until at least late in the preseason In fact the injury could prove to have long term implications. The reality of it is that if either Strahan or Umenyiora aren't available, and/or the club fails to add Rice, Kiwanuka will very likely move back to end and will be a hot pickup... The Giants DE position has been a perennial gold mine of production for several years but the interior guys haven't given us much since Cornelius Griffin put up 47 tackles way back in '01. Last years starters Fred Robbins and Barry Cofield produced only 31 and 37 tackles respectively and combined for 6 sacks. There are those who believe Cofield could really step up in his second year. He could be considered a sleeper for tackle required leagues. Robbins on the other hand, has had 7 years to prove himself but last year's 31 stops were a career high.

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Michael Strahan - Potential top 10 with considerable injury risk
  
• DE Osi Umenyiora - Top 10 stud with potential to lead the league in sacks
  
• DE/DT Justin Tuck - Injury sleeper with is own injury concerns, could see some time at tackle
  
• DT Fred Robbins - Backup at best in tackle required leagues
  
• DT William Joseph - No value
  
• DT Barry Cofield - Sleeper in tackle required leagues

Linebacker

The Giants have struggled at linebacker over the past couple of seasons so it comes as no surprise that they have made a lot of personnel changes. Gone are LaVar Arrington, Carlos Emmons and Brandon Short all three of whom either played or were supposed to have played a significant role last year. What remains to be seen is how the new pieces fit into the puzzle. We kind of know what the plan is at the moment but as we've seen already this offseason, it remains subject to change. By now everyone has heard about Mathias Kiwanuka making the move to SLB. If Strahan and Umenyiora remain healthy he'll probably stay there for now but no one really believes this move is going to be a long term thing. Strahan may make it through this year but he can't play forever, and Kiwanuka is clearly the heir apparent at DE. For the short term there is a chance that Kiwanuka could be somewhat productive. They want him on the field to take advantage of his talent in general and his rush skills in particular. He might fit very well if used correctly but lets face it, while playing defensive end throughout his college career, he hasn't spent much time working on coverage skills. The coaching staff hopes he can be an Adalius Thomas type SLB and will likely be very aggressive with him. However there are not many box score productive strong side backers in the game. At Best Kiwanuka is a long shot in fantasy terms... When the Giants signed free agent Kawika Mitchell they initially told us that he would play on the strong side. At 6'1" and 250 Mitchell has the size and is physical enough to play a conventional SLB role but he's not a pass rush threat. Recently it's been reported that he has been switched to the weak side. I'm not so sure how well that plan is going to work out. Mitchell has played MLB his entire 4 years in the pros and to the best of my knowledge, his entire college career. He's also not particularly fast which is generally a prerequisite of the WLB position, and he's not a big play guy. Simply put, Mitchell is best cast as a physical presence in the middle which is why every other coach he's had since grade school has put him there. One of the things that got the Giants in trouble last season was playing guys out of position. They tried to move career SLB Brandon Short to the weak side and it didn't work very well. In all, three different players made starts at WLB last season but the way guys were shuffled around, it's tough to get a fix on just what kind of numbers the position produced. With 80+ tackles in each of his 2 years as the Chiefs starting MLB, Mitchell was productive enough to earn a spot as a decent LB3 or quality depth. If he starts at WLB there is a reasonable chance he could put up similar numbers here. A lot would depend on who plays in the nickel package. Mitchell will be available in the very late rounds and is worth a flyer as a 5th or 6th LB... The wild card in this mix is young Gerris Wilkinson. Last season we heard lot about how much the coaching staff supposedly liked this kid, but when he got a chance to play he didn't particularly impress. If he can improve in his second year he might earn a shot and there is some chance that he could team with Antonio Pierce in the nickel package. Call him a deep sleeper... The only sure thing with this group is Pierce. Were it not for missing 3 games in '05, he would have reached triple digit solo tackles in each of his two seasons with the Giants. He's even strong in coverage and has 20 passes defended over the past 29 games. With great tackle numbers and decent big play stats, Pierce is the total package. On draft day he is sometimes a little underrated but he belongs securely in the top tier of linebackers. One observation I want to throw out. This is not a prediction in any way but keep in mind that Pierce entered the league as a WLB. I wonder if they might at some point consider Mitchell in the middle with Pierce on the weak side? 

Fantasy Prospects

• MLB Antonio Pierce - Solid #1 starter
  
• SLB Mathias Kiwanuka - Risky sleeper for leagues that emphasize sacks
  
• WLB Kawika Mitchell - Sleeper, decent depth with a little upside potential
  
• OLB Reggie Torbor - Injury sleeper
  
• WLB Gerris Wilkinson - Deep/Injury sleeper

Defensive Back

New York finished 28th versus the pass last year which obviously reflects poorly on the secondary. The way I see it, no one should blame safeties Gibril Wilson or Will Demps for this problem but apparently someone does. I thought these two guys were very good in '06. You can hardly blame them for having to make so many tackles. That said, the Giants threw us a curve when camp opened and Demps was on the bench, Wilson at FS and third year pro James Butler working with the first team at SS. At this early stage I'm not sure what to think of this situation. Is there a message being sent to someone here or is this something the staff is serious about? If Butler has been impressing anyone it's been kept quiet up until now. This is a situation we should take very seriously and Mr. Butler has very definitely become "a person of interest in this case"... Over the past 31 games Wilson has averaged 5.5 tackles, been involved in 11 takeaways and recorded 3 sacks. That's outstanding production for any DB. So how much of it is pure Wilson and how much is the scheme/situation? Only time will tell, but I can offer this insight; the year before Wilson took over, Brent Alexander was the leading tackler among the teams DBs with 56-24-2. Regardless of where he lines up, if Wilson is on the field I believe he will be the fantasy headliner. Just look at the numbers he's put up. His 92 tackles in '05 fell just one shy of tying Michael Lewis for the league lead among defensive backs. Wilson slipped a little last season but would still have reached 85 tackles had he not missed a game and been banged up down the stretch. Playing while wounded he still secured a second straight top 15. Another thing in Wilson's favor is consistency. Over his past 31 starts he's hit double digit fantasy points 9 times while falling short of 5 points in only 4 games. Both safety positions were fantasy productive last season when Demps went 74-26-1 and made his debut as a top 20 DB. Demps is an interesting prospect. He got off to a very slow start in '06, totaling just 31 fantasy points over the first 8 games. Over the final 8 he put up 80. It's hard to say if the jump in numbers was due to his finding a comfort zone in the scheme or because the Giants struggled greatly over the second half of the season. Demps showed a lot of FF promise late last year but we don't know where he stands at this point. The bottom line here is that although there is a bigger risk factor involved now, Wilson is a relatively safe bet and probably won't miss a beat regardless of position. Everyone else is a big risk until this situation resolves itself... A weak pass rush gets some of the blame for the Giants poor showing versus the pass last season but a lot of the burden fell on the collection of patchwork corners the club had assembled. Sam Madison is a very good cover corner who matches up well with the leagues speed receivers but at just 5'11" and 180, he can be pushed around by the games more physical pass catchers. In his first three years as a starter Madison racked up 20 interceptions but since '00 he's averaged only 2 a season. He's not a physical guy and would rather let someone else have credit for the tackle. As such Madison has never recorded more than 47 tackles in a season and he's broken 40 just twice in 10 years. Madison is still a very good corner but even the great ones can only cover one side of the field at a time. The Giants needed to get him someone to work with. R.W. McQuarters and Corey Webster are both decent players who would make very good nickel or dime backs but there are a lot of teams out there with 2 or even 3 very good receivers. To bolster the needy position the Giants used their 20th overall pick on Aaron Ross. Ross has both the physical tools and the intangibles to become one of the leagues finest corners over the next couple of years. He's bright, fast, has great hands, character and most importantly to us, loves to hit. He hasn't been anointed the starter yet but it will be a surprise if he doesn't open the season opposite Madison. McQuarters played in the slot over the first 8 games of last year and didn't move into the lineup full time until game 9, but he still managed to put up 55 solo stops. If Ross wins the starting job in camp the rookie corner rule would very likely come into play. 

Fantasy Prospects

• SS/FS Gibril Wilson - Quality #2 starter at worst, top 10 potential
  
• FS Will Demps - Possibly a decent #3 starter, big risk
  
• SS James Butler - Sleeper, potentially in a very productive situation
  
• CB Sam Madison - No value
  
• CB R.W. McQuarters - Injury sleeper
  
• CB Aaron Ross - Sleeper, rookie corner rule in effect
  
• CB Corey Webster - Injury sleeper for corner required leagues

Dallas Cowboys

Defensive Line

There is no need to rehash the 3-4 DL thing so here are some quick numbers. In '06 Jason Ferguson led the Dallas DL with 32 tackles and Kenyon Coleman led them in sacks with 4. That sums it up for the most part but there is one twist. Dallas ran a 3-4 scheme under Parcells but it wasn't the same 3-4 they are playing this year. The Wade Phillips version is leaner and more aggressive. The results can be seen in the numbers. San Diego linemen combined for 18 sacks in '06, while the Dallas unit could muster just 13. The Phillips 3-4 made Luis Castillo the leagues hottest 3-4 lineman last year. All we need to know is who will be "Luis Castillo" for the Cowboys? Or for that matter, is he a player to be named later? Many people have pegged Marcus Spears as the most likely candidate. It's hard to say what a little tweak in the scheme could bring about, but I would keep an eye on Jason Hatcher as well. His 2.5 sacks last season equal Spears first two seasons totals combined and Hatcher has seen one heck of a lot less action. Phillips is going to look for ends that can make things happen. Keep an eye open as the situation unfolds. There is no one here worth drafting at this point but someone could emerge as a decent in-season pickup. 

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Jason Hunter - Deep sleeper with limited upside
  
• DE Marcus Spears - Deep sleeper with limited upside
  
• DE Kenyon Coleman - No value
  
• NT Jason Ferguson - No value
  
• DE Chris Canty - No value

Linebacker

There is little doubt who will be cast as Shawne Merriman under the new coaching staff. Last season Demarcus Ware became the first Cowboys LB this decade to finish among the top 20, but he didn't do it the conventional way. Twelve sacks and 7 takeaways will do a lot to dress up weak tackle numbers but it generally doesn't help much with consistency. In better than 1 of every three games last season, Ware scored 4 points or fewer. Inconsistency is nearly always a concern with OLBs in a 3-4 scheme but Ware is a guy who could very well give us Merriman type production. There are few defenders in the game who fit their position better than these two. The OLB position opposite Ware remains wide open. Most depth charts still have Greg Ellis penciled in and Phillips continues to insist that Ellis is his starter, but he's coming off an Achilles injury and the club didn't use a first round pick on Anthony Spencer to make him a water boy. The writing is on the wall for Ellis who read it very clearly and the voiced his displeasure just as loudly. There is no guarantee that Ellis will even be able to play and if he does it might end up being for someone else. At best he is a seat warmer for the rookie and is unlikely to finish the year as the starter... If Anthony Spencer is everything the Cowboys believe he is, within a couple of years we are going to talking about Ware/Spencer in the same breath as Merriman/Phillips and maybe someday even Lloyd/Greene. Spencer's scouting reports are enough to make a 3-4 coordinator drool. 4.73 in the 40 at 261 pounds. Strong, quick, Powerful, yadda yadda.. The most telling tale may be that he comes from the same school that in recent years has turned out Rosevelt Colvin, Chike Okeafor and yes, Shaun Phillips. As a senior at Purdue Spencer piled up 93 solo tackles and 10.5 sacks in 14 starts against some of the college games best competition. His future seems very bright but with all the uncertainty surrounding this situation we should look at Spencer as no more than a risky sleeper for the short term. He could put up 50 tackles and 8-9 sacks or could just as easily go 20 tackles and 3 sacks in '07... There is some potential fantasy impact at the OLB positions in Dallas but it's the inside guys that I'll be watching closest. During Parcells tenure he pretty much stuck with Bradie James and Akinola Ayodele on the inside. Unfortunately neither of these guys ever stood out or made much of an impact. Unless the tweaks of the new coaching staff brings them to life, I don't expect either of them to last long under Phillips. Over the past couple of years many of us, including Bill Parcells, have been expecting a break out season by James. In two years as a starter the best James has been able to provide is the 73 tackles and 2.5 sacks he put up in '05. Maybe he was handicapped a little by the previous scheme and will finally have that big year. I think it more likely he will simply hold down the fort until the club can better address the position... Ayodele's 64 solo stops last year were pedestrian at best but at least he does have one 85 tackle campaign on his resume. In '03 Ayodele broke into the top 30 while playing WLB for the Jaguars. There is one point that is very noteworthy here. There are basically 2 different schools when it comes to 3-4 schemes. In Cleveland and Pittsburgh the left ILB is the centerpiece and holds the most fantasy value. When the Ravens and Texans ran a 3-4, Ray Lewis and Jamie Sharper were box score studs who worked from the LILB position. However, in the "Phillips" school it is the right ILB who has the most opportunity. Just look at what Donnie Edwards has done over the past couple of years for confirmation. For what it's worth, heading to training camp James is listed on the left with Ayodele on the right... There is a wild card in play here. One of the first things the new defensive coaches did was to move '06 first round pick Bobby Carpenter to ILB and leave him there. The previous coaching staff just couldn't settle on where he should play. As a result he was moved all over the map and was never given the opportunity to learn one position well enough to become comfortable with it or to contribute. Carpenter is a gifted football player with a ton of upside. He' 6'2" and 255 pounds but runs a 4.61 in the 40. He's tough, will make plays all over the field and can rush the passer. Carpenter was wasted as a rookie but now that he's settled at the right position he might be able to make some noise. 

Fantasy Prospects

• ILB Akinola Ayodele - Sleeper with a little upside potential
  
• ILB Bradie James - Sleeper with a little upside
  
• ILB Bobby Carpenter - Deep sleeper with big upside
  
• OLB Demarcus Ware - Strong Sleeper, major big play potential, may have consistency issues
  
• OLB Anthony Spencer - Sleeper/dynasty alert
  
• OLB Kevin Burnett - Deep sleeper at best
  
• OLB Greg Ellis - Minimal value at best

Defensive Back

Strong safety Roy Williams deservedly gets the majority of the fantasy attention each year but he hasn't always lived up to expectations. At least not in the box scores. The problem doesn't lie with Williams himself but rather the decisions of the coaching staffs he has worked with. As a rookie in '02 he was allowed to play up near the line and was turned lose to wreak havoc on offenses, and wreak havoc he did. That year Williams put up 88 solo tackles, 2 sacks and accounted for 8 takeaways on the way to a #2 fantasy rating. The following season the coaching staff determined that he could make even more big plays from the free safety position. That was a horrible decision for everyone involved, including the Cowboys. His numbers plummeted in nearly every category and he ended up outside the top 50. During the '04 season Williams returned to SS but was saddled with a lot of down field responsibilities. The result was a rebound to respectable tackle numbers but a considerable decline in big plays. In '05 Parcells decided it was time to put Williams back in his element. He was moved back up near the line in many situations and once again was given some freedom. Williams responded with a very solid season in which he totaled 72 solo stops, a career tying 2.5 sacks, 10 passes defended and had a hand in 7 takeaways on the way to a top 15. Unfortunately the team was hurting for a quality option at FS and having Williams in that role created a weakness behind him that was too often exploited. When the team failed to address that need last offseason they had no choice but to pull him back into a center field role once again, which of course sent his tackle numbers into a tailspin. When the club inked Ken Hamlin this offseason my ears perked up. When the report hit the wire that Wade Phillips planned to have Williams line up just 7 yards deep, I immediately began scanning all my dynasty leagues looking for anywhere I could get my hands on him. Strong safeties are generally very productive in 3-4 schemes to begin with. Sean Jones, Kerry Rhodes, Troy Polamalu and Rodney Harrison (before the injuries) are all very good examples. What makes me even more giddy about Williams, is Phillips ability to get the most out of his playmakers. It will be interesting to see what he can do with such a talent. A lot of owners have been burnt by Williams in the past, others are going to look at last years numbers and vastly undervalue this guy. That just means he will likely be available much later in most drafts than he should be... When it comes to box scores, Hamlin's presence will have a strong positive impact on Williams but the move from Seattle was likely a steak in the heart to his own. In three of his first four seasons Hamlin was a top 30 DB with the lone exception being '05 when he missed 10 games after being shot. He's a very active big play threat who averaged better than 70 tackles, 5 takeaways and 10 passes defended over his 3 full seasons. The Cowboys defense will welcome his skills but the situation he come to is nearly certain to curtail his production. While Williams is up there getting acquainted with the linebackers, Hamlin will be lining up 15 yards deep and playing a lot of center field. He will have a fair share of big play opportunity but may be hard pressed to reach the 60 tackle mark. For the sake of comparison, look at Marlon McCree who tallied just 42 solo stops in 14 starts for the Chargers a year ago. Hamlin is a much better player than McCree and might still be worthy as depth for some owners but his days of FF glory have passed... Terance Newman is the poster boy for the rookie corner rule. The 5th overall pick in '03 was immediately inserted as a starter. That season he recorded a career best 66 tackles, 5 takeaways and a top 20 FF rating. Hit totals have declined in every season since. In '04 he finished 29th, '05 he was 46th and last season Newman checked in at #94 with career lows in nearly every category. On the flip side, while offenses were avoiding Newman, Anthony Henry was able to lead the club in tackles. Henry is a decent player but it's easy to understand why offenses would choose to challenge him over Newman. With no significant additions to the corner position, this year should produce similar results making Henry a solid top 15 option for owners in need of corners. 

Fantasy Prospects

• SS Roy Williams - Probable stud, should return to the top 10
  
• FS Ken Hamlin - Third starter at best, likely no better than respectable depth
  
• CB Terance Newman - Minimal value in corner required leagues
  
• CB Anthony Henry - Probable starter in leagues that require corners
  
• FS Keith Davis - Injury sleeper with marginal potential
  
• FS Pat Watkins - Injury sleeper with marginal potential
  
• CB Aaron Glenn - Injury sleeper for corner required leagues

Washington Redskins

Defensive Line

The Redskins finished in the bottom half of the league in '05 with 35 sacks. They entered last season expecting improvement despite doing very little in the way of raising the talent level. In fact the only significant addition was free agent pickup Andre Carter. The results were nothing short of ugly when Washington totaled a league low 19 sacks in '06. Despite the glaring futility, the organization again elected to direct all their offseason personnel efforts to other areas, leaving defensive coaches the same collection of mostly average talent and/or under achievers to work with. Phillip Daniels is an 11 year veteran who has generally been a very serviceable option as a starting DE. In '05 he turned in one of his best seasons with a respectable 37 solo tackles and 8 sacks. However, the 24-13-3 mark of '06 represents the lowest production of his career for a non injury season. Daniels has never been more than decent depth to fantasy owners but after last year he doesn't even qualify for that... Cornelius Griffin joined Washington as a free agent in '03 and promptly turned in the best performance of his 7 year career. The 55-15-6 mark landed him among the top 15 in most scoring systems and made him the #1 defensive tackle in the fantasy game. Unfortunately his numbers returned to normal in '05 when he once again fell short of 40 tackles and posted just 4 sacks. In fact, over the other 6 years of his career, Griffin has finished no better than #52. He might be a serviceable backup in tackle required leagues but nothing more. At the other tackle position there will be competition between career backup Joe Salave'a and last year's 6th round pick Kedric Golston who started much of last season. Neither of these guys are anything to be excited about. Washington had only 1 draft pick in the first 4 rounds this year and it was used on another position of serious need, but I really have to wonder what this team was thinking about during free agency? Maybe they still plan to add some veteran help once the training camp cuts start coming... There is one silver lining to this otherwise very dark cloud. While Andre Carter didn't exactly explode last season, he did manage to lead the club with 6 sacks and lead the team's defensive line with a commendable 47 solo stops. Even more importantly for us, he was very hot down the stretch. We have to consider that Carter spent most of the '04 season on IR and then was horribly miscast at OLB in the Niners 3-4 in '05. He hadn't played end in over 2 years, had lost a lot of weight in an effort to fit at linebacker and was very rusty. Over the final 5 weeks of last season Carter finally showed his old form by totaling 27-6-4. He was a top 10 DL in '02 when he put up 44-10-12 so there is history behind him. Obviously Carter isn't going to put up 80+ tackles as the numbers from that 5 game stretch would suggest when projected over 16 games, but he is capable of 50 tackles and/or double digit sacks. Carter could be a great late round steal as your 3rd or 4th lineman. 

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Phillip Daniels - Minimal value at best
  
• DE Andre Carter - Strong sleeper, solid depth at the least with plenty of upside
  
• DE Renaldo Wynn - No value
  
• DT Cornelius Griffin - Decent backup if you must start tackles
  
• DT Joe Salave'a - No value
  
• DT Kedric Golston - No value

Linebacker

Maybe the reason that the defensive line got no attention after last season is because the team spent all its money on London Fletcher. The organization made a huge mistake by letting Antonio Pierce get away after the '04 season. They tried to replace him with Lemar Marshall but he failed to impress and after 2 years of mediocrity, the club was forced to suck it up and give Fletcher the money they should have spent on Pierce to begin with. Better late than never I suppose. At any rate, what Washington bought themselves is one of the leagues premier middle linebackers. Fletcher is a little on the short side at 5'10" and is 32 years old but he's a well proven commodity with plenty of gas in the tank. Since the '99 season Fletcher has hit triple digits in tackles 3 times, including each of the past two seasons, and has not fallen short of 89. He's a proven playmaker as well. In 7 seasons as a starter he's totaled 27.5 sacks, intercepted 11 passes forced 10 fumbles and recovered 7. For 7 consecutive seasons he's finished among the fantasy games top 15 linebackers and 5 times he's been well inside the top 10. They just don't come any more dependable than that. Some may make the argument that with the change of teams Fletcher's numbers could suffer. Don't drink that cool-aid. It would be different if he had gone to a great defensive unit and were suddenly surrounded by outstanding players, but that isn't the case. In fact the Redskins were even worse than Buffalo in most areas a year ago. Fletcher made the move from the Rams to the Bills in '02 and never missed a beat. I believe the same will be the case with this move. Don't hesitate to grab him as your #1 linebacker and smile all the way to the bank... In his first two seasons with the Redskins Marcus Washington established himself as one of the few strong side linebacker with real fantasy value. During those seasons he put up 83 and 74 tackles respectively, accounted for 11.5 sacks, had a hand in 8 takeaways and finished among the top 25 both times. Unfortunately last season was not as kind to him. Although he missed just 2 starts, Washington was banged up much of the season. The most important factor is that the coaching staff didn't use him the same as they had previously. During '04 and '05 Washington remained on the field in most passing situations and was often turned lose to get after the passer. Last season he was pulled in a lot of those situations. It's entirely possible that the decision to pull him on passing downs was related to the nagging hip injury that eventually required surgery. The important factor at this point is that the coaches have vowed to get Washington more involved in the pass rush in '07. That could mean rushing from the OLB position or he could be asked to replace Phillip Daniels at end on third downs. Consistency was somewhat of an issue with Washington even in his most productive year and it will likely continue to be a problem even if he returns to form. But if he is healthy and the coaches follow through on their promise, he should provide us with solid depth at the least... Rocky McIntosh was expected to lay claim to the WLB job last season. The fact that he was unable to beat out a very average Warrick Holdman for the job tells us that either McIntosh or the coaching staff didn't do a very good job. The one shred of evidence that is available points in favor of the player. McIntosh started just 1 contest in '06. In that late season game versus the Rams, he recorded 10 solo tackles. McIntosh has been penciled in as the starter for '07 though he could face a challenge from both Marshall and Khary Campbell. With Holdman holding the job for most of last season it's hard to get a fix on what kind of production the position might provide once a good player is in place. There is also the consideration that if the coaching staff keeps their word, Fletcher and Washington could be the nickel linebackers. At this point we have to consider McIntosh a sleeper. He could prove to be a quality backup or maybe even a decent 3rd starter. 

Fantasy Prospects

• MLB London Fletcher - Stud, top 10
  
• WLB Rocky McIntosh - Sleeper, with some upside
  
• SLB Marcus Washington - Sleeper with risk, could be a decent 3rd starter
  
• WLB Lemar Marshall - Injury sleeper with limited potential
  
• WLB Khary Campbell - Injury sleeper
  
• MLB H.B. Blades - Deep dynasty/injury sleeper

Defensive Back

Carlos Rogers is a big physical corner who can match up with the leagues bigger receivers like T.O. and Plaxico Burress, but he also has the speed and athleticism to stick with the smaller more nimble guys. Rogers overall numbers as a rookie weren't impressive at a glance (44-4-0 with 2 picks) but consider that he didn't play much prior to week 4 and then missed 3 games at the end of the season with an injury. Over the 10 games he started Rogers averaged just under 5 tackles a game and was on pace for 70+. In his second season those numbers played out as he started 15 games and totaled 68 tackles. The one thing that held Rogers back in '06 was a glaring lack of big plays. In 15 starts he recorded just 1 interception and forced one fumble. The tackle numbers were enough to land Rogers in the top 35 last year but the rookie corner rule will likely apply here and we can expect those numbers begin a slow decline over the next couple of seasons. At this point he should at the least remain a solid option for corner required leagues... Shawn Springs is also a very talented player. He was originally drafted third overall by Seattle back in '97. He's not as big as Rogers but is big enough to play a very physical style of coverage and has the veteran savvy to go with the physical skills. In fantasy terms Springs is a perfect example of why we shouldn't depend on corners for fantasy production from year to year. In '00 Springs recorded his career best of 74 solo tackles and was a top 25 DB. Since that time he's not reached 55. When he joined Washington in '04 he put up 52 tackles but lead all defensive backs with 6 sacks and picked off 5 passes to finish in the top 20. He followed that in '05 with a mark of 47-3-0 with just 1 pick and a triple digit ranking. Last season Springs missed 7 games with injury and was on a very mediocre pace when he did play. The club brought back Fred Smoot supposedly as an insurance policy but it would come as little surprise to see him bypass Springs for the starting job. Neither of these guys supply us with much promise... At this time last season it was Sean Taylor that we were talking about for being in trouble. Fortunately he wasn't fighting dogs or even chickens, and managed to avoid jail time. Taylor is still serving his 18 month probation term but the threat of a league suspension is behind him and he's ready for another big season. He had been a major fantasy disappointment over his first two seasons in the league. In '04 Taylor tallied only 59 tackles but made enough big plays to finish among the top 25. In '05 his 62 tackles were again pedestrian but the big play numbers left him and he finished with a ranking in the mid 40 range. After lulling us to sleep with a pair of very average seasons, Taylor followed last year's legal hoopla with a major breakout. The 89 solo tackles left Taylor tied for the league lead among defensive backs and even his weak big play numbers (3 FF, 1 INT) weren't enough to keep him out of the top 15. Impressive consistency made Taylor even more valuable than his final rating would suggest. He scored 5 or more fantasy points in a whopping 15 games. So what happened between '05 and '06 that made so much difference in Taylor's numbers? The most important factor is undoubtedly that the Redskins were among the very worst defenses in the league last season. The line was weak and the linebackers even weaker. Adding Fletcher to the front 7 is going to have a negative effect on Taylor's production but the addition of first round pick Laron Landry might be enough to really cramp it. When the Redskins signed Adam Archuleta last season they thought their problems at SS were solved. Maybe they should have looked at some game film before spending all that dough. Archuleta has never been particularly fast and he's never been more than just adequate in coverage. So the Redskins coaching staff shouldn't have been surprised when he didn't fit their need for a guy with strong safety size and mentality but free safety skills. Landry is that guy. He's 6'1" and 213 pounds, runs like a deer and hits like a truck. He's instinctive, rarely misses a tackle and is more experienced than most rookies having been a 4 year starter at LSU. No wonder he was the 6th overall pick. Landry has all the tools to become a Pro-Bowl type player and he will very likely make a huge fantasy impact right out of the gate. It doesn't hurt that he has landed on a club that still has problems in the front 7. Both Taylor and Landry will likely put up good numbers but Landry is likely to be the more productive even in the short term. Don't be surprised when both guys finish among the top 20 at the position. 

Fantasy Prospects

• FS Sean Taylor - Strong #3 starter at the least, plenty of upside
  
• SS Laron Landry- Probable stud with top 5 potential
  
• CB Shawn Springs - Minimal value at best
  
• CB Fred Smoot - Injury sleeper in corner required leagues
  
• CB Carlos Rogers - Possible starter in corner required

Green Bay Packers

Defensive Line

The Packers have made a lot of moves to improve on defense over the past couple of seasons and it began to pay off big in '06 with the defensive line leading the way. This unit accounted for an impressive 37.5 of the Packers 46 sacks in '06 with 4 different players contributing at least 6 of them. Aaron Kampman is the headliner. Heading into last season I called him "a solid #2 starter with upside". Wow what upside! In '04 and '05 Kampman gave us strong tackle numbers but mediocre sack totals held his value in check. All he did last season was to nearly triple his career best sack totals while his 59 tackles were 4th best among the leagues defensive linemen. In nearly any scoring system Kampman finished as one of the fantasy games top 3 linemen in '06. His excellent tackle numbers have been proven over three seasons. The only question now is can he sustain the gaudy sack numbers over the long haul? Jumping from 5.5 all the way to 15 is a big leap but this guy has gotten better with every year he's been in the league. I can't predict that he will beat last season's numbers but I feel comfortable that he will again top 50 tackles and will reach double digit sacks. Kampman has earned a spot among the leagues elite defensive ends and is a very strong #1 starter... Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila had been a mainstay at end for the Packers in recent years but late in '06 his rein seemingly came to an end. From '01 through '04 KGB established himself as one of the leagues premier pass rushers with a string double digit sacks. His pass rush prowess made it possible for coaches to overlook his difficulty versus the run. In '05 his sack total dropped to 8 and last season he had just 6 through 13 games when the coaching staff elected to pull the plug. Cullen Jenkins was inserted at end over the final three games. At 292 pounds the former tackle brought a lot more beef and run stuffing ability to the field and he may not be much of a step down when it comes to the pass rush either. Upon becoming the starter Jenkins abruptly recorded 3 sacks against the Lions giving him a total of 6.5 on the season. He only totaled 24 tackles but keep in mind that he started only 5 game on the year and 2 of those starts came at tackle. In his three starts at end Jenkins recorded a mark of 9-2-3 with a fumble recovery. When the preseason gets started we need to see what the plan is going to be on passing downs. The initially expected plan was for KGB to return to a role as a pass rush specialist, replacing Jenkins in those situations. However it has been rumored that if Jenkins performs well, he could capture an every down role and KGB could even be released. If Jenkins plays on every down he could be a very strong sleeper... The Packers used a lot of players at tackle last season thus the numbers were spread out among several contributors. Ryan Pickett, Corey Williams, Colin Cole and Cullen Jenkins all saw considerable playing time on the inside in '06. Pickett was the most productive when it comes to tackles with 31 solos and 33 assists, but he failed to land a single sack. Williams made a very strong showing. In 11 games as a starter he managed to lead the club's interior linemen with 7 sacks. Cole did a decent job working in the rotation and on short yardage downs. With Jenkins move to end, the club used their first round pick on Justin Harrell. There will be heated competition to determine the pecking order on the inside and it's a safe bet that all 4 guys will see plenty of action. Harrell wasn't a great pass rusher at Tennessee so don't let his draft position fool you. The best bet here would be Williams. Consider him a sleeper who could be worthy of a starting spot in tackle required leagues. 

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Aaron Kampman - Stud! possible top 5
  
• DE Cullen Jenkins - Sleeper, keep an eye on the KGB situation
  
• DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila - Injury sleeper, rush specialist with limited potential
  
• DE Mike Montgomery - Injury sleeper at best
  
• DT Corey Williams - Sleeper, potential starter in tackle required leagues
  
• DT Ryan Pickett - Possible backup for those who need tackles
  
• DT Justin Harrell - Deep sleeper at best for those who use tackles
  
• DT Colin Cole - No value

Linebacker

From his rookie season in '03 through the '05 campaign Nick Barnett Led the Packers in tackles and was among the fantasy games top linebackers. When the team drafted A.J. Hawk last season it was generally agreed that having another player of that caliber lined up beside him would put a dent in Barnett's production. No one expected it to be completely ruined. After finishing the '05 season with a mark of 92-47-2 and a top 10 FF rating, Barnett's numbers plunged to 61-44-1.5 and a ranking on the cusp of the top 40. Meanwhile the rookie stole his thunder with an 84-37-4 and a top 15. So what do we expect going foreword? On one hand you have Barnett who has proven to be a very good player and will enter '07 hungry to prove himself again. On the other hand you have Hawk who will enter just his second season and probably hasn't played his best football yet. This is a risky situation to become involved in. After last year it's pretty obvious that Hawk is going to be top dog and will hold the most value. There are however, several teams to give us 2 productive players at the LB position. Urlacher/Briggs, Lewis/Scott, and Tatupu/Peterson are just a few who come to mind. With the exception of the Bears tandem, what you notice with these examples is that one guy is clearly a stud while the other is a solid 3rd starter. I expect this will become the case with Hawk and Barnett as well. Barnett is too good a player for 60 tackles to be his norm. He may never be the star he once was but I would expect him to rebound from last year's disappointing totals and return to the top 25. Hawk should become the perennial team tackle leader and a solid #1 option but having Barnett by his side will probably be just enough to keep Hawk from joining the ranks of the fantasy elite. The other factor at play here is that the Packers are quickly becoming one of the leagues better defenses. This is going to lead to fewer defensive plays in general and less opportunity for both guys down the road. Last season the Packers were on the field for approximately 715 snaps. In comparison the Chiefs faced 790 defensive snaps and the Giants were on the field for over 820. If the Packers get down around the 685 mark, its going to be tough for them to support 2 quality linebackers. At this point I believe that a lot of people will have Barnett rated too low and will very possibly have Hawk ranked too high. Until we see where these two end up once the waves die down, this is might be a situation best avoided... Last season there was some speculation that Abdul Hodge might push Barnett out of the MLB job completely. Speculation ragged that Barnett could be relegated to fantasy purgatory at SLB. There are at least 3 good reasons why that will never happen. First and foremost, Barnett is not suited to play on the strong side. At 233 pounds he is much more of a quickness and anticipation guy than a smash mouth type. Second is the fact that Brady Poppinga has endeared himself to the coaching staff. The 257 pounder is a better physical fit and has earned the respect of everyone in the organization after returning from knee surgery very quickly to start the entire '06 season. And finally there is the fact that Hodge can't stay healthy. He played in just 8 games as a rookie and is struggling to recover from a knee injury. 

Fantasy Prospects

• MLB Nick Barnett - Possible #3 starter, quality depth at worst
  
• WLB A.J. Hawk - Solid #1 or excellent #2
  
• SLB Brady Poppinga - Minimal value at best
  
• MLB Abdul Hodge - Deep/injury sleeper
  
• OLB Tracy White- Injury sleeper

Defensive Back

There are no proven studs for us to pluck out of the Packers secondary, but there are some sure contributors and a lot of potential. In 2 years on the job FS Nick Collins has turned in 66 and 67 tackles respectively. He's never going to be a tackling machine but this guy is a Darren Sharper clone who is ripe to breakout in the big play department. The Packers drafted Collins when they were looking to replace Sharper who had been their playmaker in the secondary. He played 8 years in Green Bay and though he got off to a slow start, over the final 6 he averaged nearly 6 interceptions a season. Collins is following the same path but just might be a year ahead of schedule. As a rookie it was all Collins could do to find his balance and hold his own. His big play numbers were limited to 1 sack, 2 forced fumbles a pick and 8 passed defended. In his second season Collins was more comfortable and was given more freedom. The result was an improvement to 3 interceptions and 14 passed defended. If you look at Sharper's career it just so happens that he put up 3 picks in his third season. In his forth he broke out for 9. I'm not going to predict that Collins will pick off 9 passes, but with the overall improvement of the defense and Collins being in his third year, 6 or 7 would come as no surprise. You can't go wrong with Collins as your 4th DB and by mid season you might have a hard time keeping him out of you lineup... The other very interesting prospect here is corner Charles Woodson. In 8 seasons with the Raiders he had never finished inside the top 20 and had recorded a total of 17 interceptions, with just 2 of those coming over the past 32 games. Woodson came to Green Bay and didn't do much early, but he broke out for 8 interceptions over the final 11 games and finished in the top 15. In all Woodson had a hand in 13 turnovers, had a sack and 20 passes defended. With the inconsistent nature of the corner position it would be a bad idea to expect a repeat of such impressive numbers but the point remains that Woodson is likely to give us much better production now than we had expected from him in Oakland. He's as sure a starter as can be had in corner required leagues but he may be drafted too high after last season's explosion... Al Harris starts opposite Woodson. He's a very good cover man and an asset to the Packers defense but he's reached 50 tackles in a season just once in 10 years and hasn't recorded more then 3 picks since '99. No help here... There is a sleeper in play at the Packers SS position. Veteran Marquand Manuel is the incumbent but it's no secret that the club is seeking a LeRoy Butler to go with their new Darren Sharper. For those of you who weren't using IDP back then or aren't Packer fans. Butler was a very physical, head busting strong safety and was a perennial top 10 DB. Enter rookie third round pick Aaron Rouse. This kid is not blazing fast but he's a former linebacker who still plays like one. He's 6'4" and 223 pounds, has good ball skills, is very stout in run support and plays faster than he times. There is a growing contingent of people who believe he might overtake Manuel before the season opens. All I know is that they sure haven't hesitated to start their young guys before. If they believe Rouse is their long term answer I would be surprised if they didn't start him. I don't know how many tackles will be available to anyone playing behind the Packers front 7 but Rouse still deserves a sleeper rating and a dynasty shout out.

Fantasy Prospects

• FS Nick Collins - Decent 3rd starter with big play potential
  
• SS Marquand Manuel - Minimal value at best
  
• SS Aaron Rouse - Sleeper, injury sleeper, dynasty alert, with good upside
  
• CB Charles Woodson - Solid starter if you must have corners
  
• CB Al Harris - No value
  
• CB Will Blackmon - Injury sleeper

Minnesota Vikings

Defensive Line

The Vikings have had some horrible luck at the DE position in recent years. In '04 and '05 they used first round picks on Knechi Udeze and Erasmus James respectively. Upon selecting James they thought the DE position would become a strength of the defense. It hasn't worked out that way. Udeze was plugged in as a starter from day one. As a rookie he had an average season with 25 tackles and 5 sacks but showed some promise. In '05 he was lost to a knee injury in week 3. Udeze returned to play in all 16 games last season but was a complete non-factor with a mark of just 19-10-0. Heading into training camp this season, his job is on the line. James appeared in 15 games as a rookie, starting most of them and like Udeze, had a very unspectacular rookie campaign in which he produced 23-5-3. Minnesota got Udeze back last year but in week 2 James was lost to a knee injury that he has been struggling to recover from. To sum it all up, two first round picks in the past 3 drafts have combined for 9 sacks and the club may be starting Darrion Scott and Ray Edwards in week one... As backups go Scott and Edwards may be pretty good ones. Scott is far from a Pro-Bowl candidate but he is a very serviceable backup with 65 tackles and 10 sacks in 27 starts over the past two seasons. Edwards on the other hand, is an intriguing prospect. He didn't see a lot of action as a rookie 4th round pick in '06, but he did get the call as a pass rusher once in a while. The result was 8 tackles, 3.5 sacks and a couple of passes defended in very limited playing time. At just 260 pounds it's hard to say how he will hold up versus the run but at this point it looks like he may get a chance to show us. Pencil Edwards in as a deep sleeper and keep an eye on him in the preseason In Pat and Kevin Williams the Vikings boast one of the NFL's best tackle tandems. Unfortunately the fruits of their labors don't show up brightly in the box scores. Kevin career has been a head scratcher. As a rookie he played both tackle and end during the season and racked up 10.5 sacks with a top 15 ranking. In his second season he continued seeing time at both positions and was a top 5 lineman with 52 tackles, 11 sacks, 6 takeaways and even 8 passes defended. Over the past two seasons Williams has played solely at tackle and has combined for just 59 stops and 8.5 sacks. So why is it that he isn't seeing time at end? At best Kevin Williams will have value as a backup in tackle required leagues... There was a time when Pat Williams could be counted on for 50+ tackles a season. Since making the move to Minnesota he's averaged just 39. Pat isn't much of a pass rusher either. He has just 5 sacks to show for the past 5 seasons. No help here. 

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Kenechi Udeze - Not worth a draft pick
  
• DE Erasmus James - Sleepers at best, may not be back from injury
  
• DE Darrion Scott- Injury sleeper with limited potential
  
• DE Ray Edwards - Deep sleeper, a player to keep an eye on, possible dynasty alert
  
• DT Kevin Williams - Potential backup in tackle required leagues
  
• DT Pat Williams - Minimal value
  
• DT Spencer Johnson - Injury sleeper, could see some time at end

Linebacker

When the Vikings entered training camp last year there was a lot of uncertainty at linebacker. That isn't the case in '07. Napoleon Harris is off to Kansas City making room for E.J. Henderson's return home to the MLB position which in turn opens the door for last year's top pick Chad Greenway to claim the WLB job. Greenway spent all of last season on IR after tearing up his knee during camp. At least the injury happened very early so he's had a full year to recover. Greenway has never played a down in the NFL but he brings a lot of potential to the table. Much like the Tampa-2 run by the Buccaneers, the scheme in Minnesota is centered around the WLB position. It's basically the same scheme that has made Derrick Brooks a top 20 linebacker in 9 of his 12 seasons as a pro. Last year E.J. Henderson shifted to WLB after Greenway was injured. While the coaching staff pretended to be elated with his play, the reality of it is that Henderson was a natural MLB who did a good job while playing out of position due to necessity. Even so he was the Vikings second leading tackler behind Antoine Winfield and managed to finish among the top 25 linebackers. There are a lot of similarities between Greenway and Brooks. Both are quick, athletic and smart, can make plays all over the field and have good coverage skills. Maybe the most important factor is that like Brooks, Greenway is a natural leader. This is something the Vikings have been in need of at linebacker since Jack Del Rio retired. He still has a long way to go before we can proclaim him the next Derrick Brooks but Greenway has the physical skills and the intangibles to be a very good player and is in the most productive position/situation that the Vikings defense has to offer. There is a lot of reason for optimism... In 14 starts at MLB for the Vikings last season Napoleon Harris could muster just 42-17-2.5, but don't pin those weak numbers on Edwards. There are a lot of differences between the players and even more between the way Harris was used and what will be done with Henderson. As the Chiefs will soon learn, Harris is far from a great player. He is good against the run but very average in most other aspects. Thus Harris played almost exclusively on early/running downs. Henderson is a much better all around linebacker who will almost certainly pair with Greenway in the nickel package and will rarely leave the field. Middle backer is not the most productive position in the Vikings scheme but we should expect much better numbers that the position produced in '06. Henderson should qualify as decent depth at the least... In the case of an injury, Dontarrious Thomas could become a player of interest. He hasn't held down a full time job in any of his three seasons with the team but has turned in a handful of strong single game performances when called upon as a sub. Thomas will serve as the top backup to all three positions though there could be a shuffle depending on who were injured... Like many strong side linebackers in the league Ben Leber doesn't make much splash in the box scores but is a solid contributor to the Minnesota defense. 

Fantasy Prospects

• MLB E.J. Henderson - Quality backup with a little upside
  
• WLB Chad Greenway - Strong sleeper with the potential to land in the top 20, excellent dynasty option
  
• SLB Ben Leber - No value
  
• WLB Dontarrious Thomas - Injury sleeper could produce backup numbers if he gains a full time role

Defensive Back

I'm sure it's happened before but I can't remember a team every finishing with the #1 run defense and the #32 pass defense in the same season. The '06 Vikings have that somewhat dubious honor. The secondary will shoulder the burden of last season's poor showing versus the pass but it's hard to cover any NFL receiver indefinitely and the Minnesota pass rush was among the weakest in the league. That however won't necessarily stop the coaching staff from making wholesale personnel changes in the secondary. Fred Smoot has already been sent packing in favor of '06 second round pick Cedric Griffin and the safety positions are said to be a wide open battle between 5 players entering camp. Of last year's starters only corner Antoine Winfield is safe. It just so happens that Winfield is also the best fantasy option the Vikings has to offer at DB as well. He's one of a rare breed of corners who is annually among the leagues leading tacklers at the position. It doesn't hurt that he plays left corner in a cover 2 but Winfield was productive even without the help of the scheme. Had he not missed a couple of games in '04, Winfield would have a run of 4 consecutive seasons with 80+ tackles dating back to his final season in Buffalo when he piled up 94. He put up a lot of tackles during his tenure with the Bills but since coming to Minnesota, Winfield has come alive in the big play department as well. Over his first 5 pro seasons Winfield recorded 6 interceptions. Over three season in Minnesota he's put up 11 and has finished among the fantasy games top 12 DBs in each of the past two seasons. No matter what changes are made, Winfield is going to remain the one constant. At least for this season... Griffin gained experience last season by serving at the nickel corner and the coaching staff believes (or at least hopes) that he is ready to take over a starting role. He couldn't be any worse than Smoot who was lit up like a fireworks show much of last season. Whenever there is a first time starter in place it creates the potential for fantasy production. Griffin may not be a rookie but it's the same concept as the rookie corner rule. His chances of being highly productive are slim but owners who use corners should keep Griffin on the radar... Darren Sharper and Dwight Smith were last years starting safeties but they are going to get a lot of heat from Tank Williams, Mike Doss and Greg Blue during training camp. Or so the story goes at least. Williams was supposed to be a factor last season but a knee injury during camp took him out of the mix. He is battling back from surgery and is expected to be part of the competition but lets face it. He couldn't get the job done in Tennessee. For several years Williams was the Titans starter but he never made much of an impact. It got to the point that everyone assumed it was something about the scheme that made Tennessee safeties so average. After seeing Chris Hope in action for the Titans last year, that explanation no longer holds water. I don't see Williams as a serious contender and he'll likely be the odd man out when it comes time to trim the roster. Next on the list is Mike Doss. A pretty good player when healthy and a guy who could make a splash at SS. He has experience in the cover 2 and could be a great fit. He also has a great deal of experience working with trainers. In his 4 year career Doss has yet to complete a full schedule of games. Twice he has come close but even in those seasons he was slowed by nagging problems and his production was pedestrian... Greg Blue may well be the most serious contender for one of the jobs. The second year pro has the physical skills and though he didn't play a lot as a rookie, he has some experience under his belt. If the club is looking to get younger, Blue could be the answer. After looking at all the challengers and taking everything into consideration, It's very possible if not probable that nothing will change. Sharper has 13 interception in 2 years with the club, including 4 last season. He's entering his 11th year and may be a player in decline but he's still a big play threat and probably the best safety on the roster. Smith was far from spectacular last season but he's a very serviceable veteran player. I just don't see anyone else here that would provide much of in improvement. It took a lot of words to get to this point but the bottom line is that if you don't get Winfield, there is no point drafting a Minnesota DB.

Fantasy Prospects

• SS Darren Sharper - Possible depth with limited potential
  
• FS Dwight Smith - Depth at best
  
• SS Greg Blue - Deep sleeper
  
• CB Antoine Winfield - Decent #2 starter or excellent #3
  
• CB Marcus McCauley - Injury sleeper, probably serves as nickel corner
  
• CB Cedric Griffin - Sleeper for leagues that require corners
  
• SS Mike Doss - Sleeper with limited potential and serious injury risk

Chicago Bears

Defensive Line

The Bears haven't had any perennial pro bowl types on their DL in recent years but that could change with the emergence of Mark Anderson. As a rookie 5th round pick in '06 Anderson didn't even hold a starting job. Working in a rotation with Adewale Ogunleye and Alex Brown, Anderson managed to lead the club with 12.5 sacks. The coaching staff was so impressed with him that not only has he been moved into a starting role ahead of Brown, but the club has been shopping Brown on the trade market. There is no doubt Anderson can get after the passer, what we don't know for certain is how he will hold up versus the run or even more importantly for us, what kind of tackle numbers we can expect. At 255 pounds he's not as big as many of the leagues every down ends but his 24 solos last year were pretty respectable for a part time player, especially when you consider that Brown had 48 and Ogunleye 37. The key here may be what happens with Brown. If the club is able to trade him, it would be a plus for Anderson's stock. If Brown remains with the team, he will likely continue to see a good deal of playing time and will take a bite out of Anderson's tackle opportunities. Even if Brown moves on there will be a third man in the mix. The club used a second round pick in this year's draft on Dan Bazuin who comes with a lot of potential himself. This kid racked up 26.5 sacks over his final 2 seasons at Central Michigan. It looks as if the Bears might be doing a little planning for the future here. Brown is already on the trade block and Ogunleye is approaching the end of his contract. Not to mention that he had just 5.5 sacks last season. If Bazuin can translate his collegiate success to the pro game, we might just have a new pair of bookends in Chicago as early as next season. For '07 the fantasy outlook breaks down like this. Anderson has clearly become the headliner. This kid looks like the real deal and could leap into the top 10 if his tackle numbers can catch up. After Anderson there is a lot of risk. Brown was a top 20 guy last season but he's no longer a starter and may not even be with the team by the end of camp. Ogunleye seems safe as a starter but he's had trouble staying healthy and hasn't been as productive as the team would like. In three seasons with the Bears he's missed 8 games, reached double digit sacks just once and has never totaled more than 36 tackles. He's probably a guy best left for someone else on draft day. Bazuin had big college number but hasn't played against the best competition. He brings a lot of potential to the table but at this point he's no more than an injury sleeper or a dynasty prospect that should be tucked away on a taxi squad... The Bears have a little mud on their face over the Tank Williams fiasco. After standing behind him through the worst of times, they elected to cut him lose over a traffic stop only to find out after the fact that the man had done nothing wrong. Oops! Now we know why clubs always wait for the legal process to run it's course. It's much better than shooting themselves in the foot for the sake of public opinion. At any rate, the team lost a very good football player when they sent Johnson packing. Chicago also lost capable backups Alfonso Boone and Ian Scott to free agency, leaving the cupboard a little bare. They will count on free agent addition Anthony Adams, '06 third round pick Dusty Dvoracek and recently acquired Darwin Walker to pick up the slack on the inside. Adams was a starter for the Niners in '04 but fell out of grace when the Mike Nolan regime turned to a 3-4 scheme. He put up 41 tackles in 13 games in '04 but doesn't pose much threat of a top 50 finish. Dvoracek is a player the Bears coaches were high on last season but an early injury landed him on IR. Walker was added on the eve of training camp after being unable to come to terms on a contract extension with Buffalo. He's a proven commodity who is a good inside pass rusher and was somewhat productive (for a tackle) while with the Eagles. Walker is the odd on favorite to start alongside Tommie Harris but the Bears like to rotate their linemen so all three of these guys are going to get a look... With Johnson gone and Walker expected to be plugged in at nose tackle, Tommie Harris becomes the teams biggest inside threat. He's a mobile and athletic big man who is strong versus the run and above average as a pass rusher. Harris has 10 sacks over three seasons in the pros, including 5 last year in just 12 games. There is some chance that he could provide value in tackle required leagues but in reality, none of these guys have much promise when you consider that over the past three seasons no Chicago interior lineman has reached 35 tackles and none has recorded more than Harris's 5 sacks. Harris himself has a career high of only 29 tackles and he's the best option of the group.

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Adewale Ogunleye - Quality depth at best
  
• DE Alex Brown - Injury sleeper with limited potential
  
• DE Mark Anderson - Quality #2 starter with big upside, potential top 10
  
• DT Darwin Walker - Possible depth in tackle required league
  
• DT Dusty Dvoracek - No value
  
• DT Anthony Adams - No value
  
• DT Tommy Harris- Possible depth in tackle required leagues

Linebacker

Now that Lance Briggs has come to his senses and signed his franchise tender, there isn't much left to wonder about when it comes to the Bears linebackers. The closest thing to a training camp competition will be Jamar Williams, Leon Joe and rookie Michael Okwo trying to get noticed so they can get a shot next season when Briggs may be gone. Brian Urlacher remains the headliner and top fantasy dog in most peoples eyes but it's hard to argue with Lance Briggs 113 tackles in '06. I look at them as sort of 1 and 1A at this point. Both guys finished well inside the top 10 last season and both have a proven track record. Since joining the team as the 9th overall pick in '00, Urlacher has been fantasy gold. With the exception of an injury shortened '04 campaign, he's never fallen short of 87 solo tackles and has topped 95 three times including a mark of 117 in '02 when he was the #1 fantasy LB in most scoring systems. He generally kicks in some very respectable big play numbers as well. In 7 seasons Urlacher has recorded 32.5 sacks, 10 interceptions and been involved in 14 fumbles. He had a hand in 5 takeaways last season but if there is any concern with Urlacher, it's that for the first time in his career he failed to record a single sack in '06. This after totaling 11.5 in the previous 25 games. Obviously this has more to do with the way he is used than Urlacher's ability, but just a couple of sacks would have been enough to bump him inside the top 5 last year. Even without the sack opportunities Urlacher is consistent, dependable and should be among the first 5 linebacker off the board in any league... In '04 Briggs showed signs of great things to come when he racked up his first triple digit season. A glaring lack of big plays however, kept his fantasy value somewhat in check and landed him just inside the top 15. In '05 the tackle production dipped to only 83 solos but Briggs stepped up in the other columns to the tune of 2 sacks and 5 takeaways. In '06 everything came together for him. 113 solo stops, a sack and a hand in 7 takeaways landed Briggs his first top 5 finish. If he's smart enough to stay with the Bears where he obviously is a perfect fit, another season like the last will ensure Briggs a place among the fantasy elite for years to come. If he is hell bent on getting out of Chicago after the season, who knows, it could prove to be career suicide... Hunter Hillenmeyer has secured his place in the starting lineup but the SLB position in the Bears scheme is a job destined for obscurity... There are those who believe the Bears selected Michael Okwo with the specific intent to have him replace Briggs whenever the time comes. Briggs signed his franchise tender with the promise that he would not be tagged again next year, which would allow him to become an unrestricted free agent. If you have a taxi squad or room on your dynasty roster, it might be a good idea to tuck Okwo away for safe keeping. 

Fantasy Prospects

• MLB Brian Urlacher - Top 10 stud
  
• WLB Lance Briggs - Likely top 10 stud
  
• SLB Hunter Hillenmeyer - Injury sleeper
  
• WLB Leon Joe - Injury sleeper
  
• MLB Jamar Williams - Injury sleeper
  
• WLB Michael Okwo - Injury/dynasty sleeper

Defensive Back

Charles Tillman is one of the few corners in the game who brings both excellent production and consistency to the box scores. As a rookie in '03 he posted 74 solo stops, a sack and 4 picks, for a top 20 ranking. Tillman was injured in '04 and missed 9 games but prior to the injury he was on pace for 73 tackles. In '05 he upped the stakes even further by finishing with 85-11-1, 4 forced fumbles and 5 picks for a top 5 finish. Had he not missed a pair of games last season Tillman would have finished in the area of 78 tackles and would likely have added a second consecutive top 10. Corners are generally very inconsistent and I don't like to take chances on them but Tillman has proven himself to be one of the rare exceptions. Four years in a row is enough for even me. He should be one of the top dozen DBs off the board in any league... Nathan Vasher is penciled in to start opposite Tillman with Ricky Manning handling the nickel back duties, but there is a wild card in play here. Injuries forced a shuffle that had '06 second round pick Daniel Manning seeing a great deal of time at FS last season. The return of a supposedly healthy Mike Brown and the free agent addition of Adam Archuleta have the second year pro spending time at corner during this offseason The coaching staff likes Manning's big play potential at FS but the versatile youngster played both positions with great success during his college career. At this point the objective seem to be simply to get him on the field in some capacity. From the fantasy perspective, Bears corners have a lot of big play potential but after Tillman, there isn't much consistency or fantasy value to be found in this group... There is a wide range of speculation surrounding the Bears safeties this offseason The club signed Adam Archuleta to bolster a SS position that became a problem last year when Mike Brown was injured. There is a contingent of people who point to last year's benching of Archuleta by the Redskins and claim he is finished, and that signing him was a waste of precious money. Don't be one of those people. The Redskins simply made a personnel blunder by signing him to begin with. If they wanted a speedy, finesse kind of safety, maybe they should have looked at some game film before trying to shove a square peg into a round hole. Fantasy owners should take note that prior to being benched, Archuleta put up 8 or more solo stops in 4 of the first 6 games. He is an excellent in the box, run support safety who doesn't particularly excel in coverage but is adequate. What he brings is strong run support and an intimidation factor in the passing game. Lovie Smith coached Archuleta in St. Louis when he put up 94 solo tackles and was a top 5 fantasy DB. There is no doubt that Smith knows his strengths and how to take advantage of them. There is also the consideration that Archuleta already knows the system, and there is zero chance that he will not fit into it. The only question here is health. Not so much Archuleta's health but Mike Brown's. Archuleta had missed a few games with shoulder problems in recent years but that was a non-factor last season. Brown on the other hand, has missed 28 games over the past 3 seasons including 10 last year with a serious foot injury. He has participated in the offseason program with no setbacks and claims to be ready for action. A healthy Brown gives the coaching staff a lot of options. He is a very good strong safety but is also a very capable free safety with plenty of experience at the position having played there for 3 seasons early in his career. The recent trade of Chris Harris to the Panthers sends a very loud message that the coaching staff is comfortable with Brown and Archuleta as their starters. During minicamp and into training camp these to have been featured with the first team defense. If everyone remains healthy, that alignment should stick and Archuleta could return to the top 20. At FS, Brown wouldn't be in line for a lot of tackles but some of you may remember the '01 season in which he picked off 5 passes, recorded 3 sacks, forced 3 fumbles, recovered 2 and scored 3 times. All while working at free safety. There is a lot of risk with him but he can be productive if healthy even at FS. Should either of the starters go down, the trade of Harris makes Manning the next in line at the position. 

Fantasy Prospects

• FS/SS Mike Brown - Sleeper, possible #3 starter, major injury risk
  
• SS Adam Archuleta - Sleeper to an extent, top 20 potential but there is risk
  
• CB Charles Tillman - Quality #2 at worst, top 5 among corners
  
• CB Ricky Manning - Injury sleeper for owners who must start corners
  
• CB Nathan Vasher - Big play value but too few tackles, minimal value at best
  
• S Danieal Manning - Injury sleeper

Detroit Lions

Defensive Line

The Lions were near the bottom of the league with just 30 sacks last season and the run defense finished 21st. Both are statistics that reflect directly on the poor performance of the defensive line. It's easy to point blame at the run of injuries that left them short 3 starters by mid October, but in reality this club was in desperate need of a talent infusion or at the very least, some change. In typical "bass akwards" style, Matt Millen started the process by trading away James Hall who was the team's best pass rusher. The move appeared to be financially motivated as Hall would have been due a significant roster bonus, but injuries may have played a part in the decision as well. Whatever the reason for the trade, it opened the door for the team to sign free agent Dwayne White. At a glance this doesn't seem like such a good move. In 4 years as a pro, White has started only 12 games and has just 12.5 sacks to his credit. He played very little as a rookie second round pick in '03. During the '04 and '05 seasons he served a bigger but still limited role as a passing down replacement. In week 9 of last season White finally got his chance when he replaced an injured Simeon Rice. In 8 starts he was hardly impressive totaling a respectable 21 tackles but recording only 2 sacks. Obviously White's numbers aren't very impressive. However, half a season in a bad situation where the club is getting hammered every week, hardly counts as giving the guy a chance. White bolted to Detroit not only for the money but for an opportunity to start. He'll get his shot this year, and you never know what a change of scenery can do. Keep White in mind as a very late round sleeper. He's a money saving alternative for the Lions who could prove to be a pleasant surprise for us... Kalimba Edwards is penciled in opposite White but don't be surprised if that pencil has an eraser. The Lions have been trying to turn Edwards into an every down player since he joined the team in '02. He's had more than ample opportunity to prove himself but has never shown himself to be much more than average. Edwards played virtually full time over the final 11 games of last season but put up just 20 tackles and 3 sacks in those contests. Maybe having the starting job right from the start of camp will help in some way. Edwards is not completely without potential. He does have 23.5 sacks in 5 seasons and a career high of 7 that came just two years ago. He might be worthy of a backup role in some leagues... If Edwards doesn't produce early and often, he may soon be looking over his shoulder at second round pick Ikaika Alama-Francis. The rookie is somewhat of a raw talent but has the potential to be a very good player. If he plays well and/or if Edwards doesn't, the coaching staff may want to get Alama-Francis involved early. He is definitely worthy as a late round dynasty sleeper... Every rain cloud has a silver lining and for the Lions otherwise dismal '06, that was Cory Redding. Redding is a versatile lineman who spent his first 3 seasons in Detroit playing end. When the club lost both Shaun Rogers and Shaun Cody to injury last year, Redding was moved inside and he took to the position like a fish to water. He started 10 games at tackle on the season, recording 6.5 of his 7 sacks from that position. He was tough against the run as well. It didn't take long for the coaching staff to realize that Redding was at home on the inside, thus it is now his permanent residence. In those last 10 games Redding totaled 26 solo tackles. Project his numbers over a full season and you get 42-5-10.5. There are not many tackles who give us that kind of production. I see Redding as a solid #3 or excellent #4 in any league and he may well be #1 at the tackle position... A determination on who starter beside Redding may come down to who is healthy between Rogers and Cody. A healthy Rogers would be the clubs first choice but he is set to begin training camp on the PUP list and is said to be very overweight as he recovers from knee and shoulder injuries. In '03 and '04 Rogers gave us numbers worthy of starter status in tackle required leagues but he's done nothing over the past two seasons. 

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Dewayne White - Sleeper with some upside, should make at least a decent backup
  
• DE Ikaika Alama-Francis - Sleeper/dynasty sleeper, raw talent with big upside
  
• DE Kalimba Edwards - Sleeper, decent depth at worst with a little potential
  
• DE Cory Redding - Solid depth for anyone, probable stud if tackles are required
  
• DT Shaun Rogers - Big risk for minimal value return
  
• DT Shaun Cody - Wildcard, possible value if you must start tackles

Linebacker

There is a strange phenomenon at work in Detroit. When a team is bad on defense it usually means that their linebackers and/or safeties will put up a lot of tackles. Despite finishing in the bottom third of nearly every defensive category for 4 consecutive seasons, WLB Ernie Sims was the first Lion to reach 80 solo tackles since Earl Holmes hit 96 back in '02. Last year the Lions defense was on the field for 780+ defensive snaps but Sims was the only player on the roster to put up more than 55 tackles. That says an awful lot about the talent level of the Lions other linebackers. When the club drafted Sims with the 9th overall pick last season it was a huge step in the right direction. When they failed to get him some help this offseason it was huge mistake. You can't ask much more from a first year player than to lead the club in tackles. Sims outdistanced his closest competitor by a whopping 27 solo stops. He is beyond doubt the best, and very possibly the only, fantasy option to be found among this collection of average and/or injury prone linebackers. Sims however, was far from a stud in '06. His tackle production of 83-43 was respectable but with very little contribution in the big play columns, he didn't even make the top 30. He'll easily lead the club in tackles again in '07, and a year of experience should go a long way toward helping his big play potential, but with recent history being what it is, Sims shouldn't be counted on as more than a decent 3rd starter or quality backup... The Lions list Paris Lenon as their starting MLB going into camp. Lenon started all 16 games last year but totaled just 51 tackles. He's a career backup thrust into a starting role out of necessity. Don't expect a lot of improvement... When the Lions drafted Teddy Lehman in '02 he was expected to take over as their starter in the middle. An injury to Boss Bailey and the presence of Earl Holmes forced the club to move him to SLB as a rookie. Lehman remained on the field in passing situations and managed to finish as the team's second leading tackler. He was expected to take over the MLB job in his second season when injury struck and derailed that plan. Lehman has been fighting to return from that serious foot injury ever since. He played in a hand full of games in '05 but was able to suit up only 4 times last season. If he ever fully recovers Lehman can be a fine middle backer. Unfortunately it's looking like he may never be the same... There's a deep sleeper at the MLB position. Rookie 5th round pick Johnny Baldwin was an outside linebacker at Alabama A&M but has been shifted inside by the Lions coaching staff. Considering the guys who are in front of him, it would be no surprise to see Baldwin get a shot. He couldn't be any worse... Alex Lewis and Boss Bailey will contend for the SLB position. Lewis held the job for most of last season while the coaches experimented with Bailey in the middle. That experiment was a rousing failure. The competition may come down to who can stay healthy. Lewis has missed 20 games over the past two seasons while Bailey has been out 21 times in the last three seasons. Regardless of who wins the job, neither of these guys have any value to us. 

Fantasy Prospects

• MLB Teddy Lehman - Deep sleeper with serious injury concerns but big potential
  
• WLB Ernie Sims - Solid #3 starter or excellent backup with upside
  
• SLB Boss Bailey - No value
  
• MLB Paris Lenon - No value
  
• MLB Johnny Baldwin - Deep/injury sleeper, could get a shot at some point
  
• OLB Anthony Cannon - Injury sleeper
  
• SLB Alex Lewis - No value

Defensive Back

It's a darn good thing that the Lions have Mike Martz and his high powered offense. With this secondary they are going to need to score a lot of points. Fernando Bryant and Stanley Wilson are the projected starters at corner. Bryant is a decent cover man but is best suited in a #2 role. He's an 8 year veteran who has only 5 career interceptions, none of which have come during his 3 seasons with the Lions. Injuries have been a major problem for Bryant as well. He's missed 26 games since '04... Wilson was the team's 3rd round pick in '05. He saw very little action as a rookie and played in 13 games last season when he worked in the nickel package. Like Bryant, Wilson is a decent cover corner but also like Bryant, he has yet to intercept a pass since joining the Lions. Detroit is taking a huge chance by going with these two as their starters. It will come as little surprise to see projected nickel corner Travis Fisher claim a starting job by the time training camp ends... In Daniel Bullocks and Kenoy Kennedy the Lions have a pretty solid pair of safeties. Which makes their decision to use a second round pick on Gerald Alexander a real head scratcher, especially considering all their other glaring needs. Nothing has been said about it yet but Alexander spent a year starting at corner for Boise State before moving to FS in '04. He doesn't have great speed but is smart, quick to react and physical. He just might be a good fit at left corner in the Lions cover 2. Keeping in mind that the left corner in a cover 2 often has SS like run support responsibilities, Alexander's may best help the club at corner and his best chance at making a box score impact may lie there as well... Kenoy Kennedy was the Lions leading tackler and a top 30 fantasy option in '05 when he totaled 75-24 and had 3 takeaways. He missed 6 games last season but was on pace for similar tackle numbers and double the big play production. With the state of the linebacker position, if Kennedy can play a full schedule, he should be right on Sims heels in the race for the team tackle lead. With last year's injury shortened production Kennedy will be overlooked by many owners. He will likely be available as a late round sleeper and barring injury, will provide at least quality depth... Though he only posted 55 solo stops, it's note worthy that Bullocks was the team's second leading tackler in '06. Over the first 7 games of the seasons Bullocks never fell short of 5 fantasy points. His numbers dropped of during the second half when the club was forced to shift players around to cover for injuries. He's not going to be a major factor but there is at least some chance that Bullocks will provide numbers worthy of quality depth... 

Fantasy Prospects

• FS Daniel Bullocks - Sleeper with limited upside due to the scheme
  
• SS Kenoy Kennedy - Possible #3 starter, decent depth in most leagues
  
• CB Fernando Bryant - No value
  
• CB Stanley Wilson - Deep sleeper in leagues that use corners
  
• CB Travis Fisher - No value
  
• S/CB Gerald Alexander - Deep sleeper, could see time at corner

San Francisco 49ers

Defensive Line

Going into their third year in the 3-4, the Niners have assembled a solid group of linemen who fit the bill. Bryant Young has been a cornerstone in San Francisco for well over a decade and still has game. At 36 he is approaching the end of a great career and just might be playing his last season, but he can still get the job done. In '06 he led the team's linemen with 5 sacks and posted a respectable 41 tackles on the way to a top 40 ranking. Not bad numbers at all but don't let them sucker you in. In 14 seasons Young has reached 40 tackles just 4 times. The last coming in '98. At the very best he might serve as a decent backup in a 14 team league... The Niners have prepared for Young's eventual retirement by drafting Ray McDonald in the third round and signing Sam Rayburn during free agency. McDonald's scouting report read like a blueprint for a 3-4 end. Strong at the point of attack, sheds blockers well, great hand fighter, fast enough to make plays outside the tackle box etc. It's hard to say what all of that will amount to in the box scores but he is clearly the heir apparent to Young... 3-4 linemen are rarely great fantasy options and are generally very inconsistent from year to year. Marques Douglas is a very rare exception. He's the only 3-4 end to reach 40+ tackles in each of the past 4 seasons. As a member of the Ravens 3-4 defense Douglas posted top 25 numbers in '03 and '04 when he totaled 52 and 49 tackles respectively and combined for 10 sacks. In his fist season with a rebuilding Niners club that was new to the 3-4, his tackle production remained solid at 44 but he managed to land just 1 sack and finished barely inside the top 50. San Francisco improved as a team last season and Douglas's numbers with them. A 47-14-3 moved him back up near the top 30. Douglas is a fine player and a good fit at end in a 3-4. He's an athletic, above average pass rusher who holds up well versus the run despite being only 270 pounds, and is surprisingly consistent in the tackle columns despite the limitations of the scheme. The Niners have continued to add talent to their young defense and seemingly have turned the corner. As a general rule, the more playmakers a defense has on the field, the easier it is for each of them to make plays. With that in mind, don't be surprised if Douglas gives us 5-6 sacks and a hand full of other big plays to go with his 40+ tackles in '06, and makes a return to the top 25... Aubrayo Franklin won't have any fantasy value but the 334 pounder will be instrumental to the success of this defense. It will be his responsibility to anchor the run defense and to suck up blockers in order to keep the inside linebackers clean. 

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Bryant Young - Depth in large leagues at best
  
• DE Marques Douglas - Quality depth with a little upside
  
• DE Ray McDonald - Dynasty deep sleeper, save your draft pick until we see something from him
  
• DE Sam Rayburn - Injury sleeper with marginal potential
  
• NT Aubrayo Franklin - No value
  
• NT Isaac Sopoaga - No value

Linebacker

In any successful 3-4 defense the linebackers, and particularly the outside linebackers, need to be difference makers. In '06 the Niners were hurting across the board at this position. They must have someone step up if they are to take their game to the next level. The club used a first round pick on Many Lawson last season in hope that he would be their Shawne Merriman. As a rookie he sure didn't look the part. In a full 16 games he was able to muster only 48 tackles and a disappointing 3 sacks. Obviously much bigger things are expected from Lawson going foreword but expectations don't score us any points. Until/unless he shows us something he is not worthy of much consideration... Some of Lawson's lacking performance can be blamed on a weak supporting cast. The Niners recorded just 34 sacks as a team in '06 with only about 8 of those coming from the OLB positions. That simply won't get it done. In an effort to address the situation San Francisco inked free agent Tully Banta-Cain who has been plugged in opposite Lawson. Banta-Cain was a 4 year project for the Patriots who began to step up last year. The former 7th round pick saw very little action over his first three seasons but played a more significant role in '06 when he made 5 starts and posted a 31-12-5.5 mark in spite of the limited playing time. Banta-Cain was eager for the opportunity to start and could prove to be one of the off-season's free agent steals. As an OLB in a 3-4 he has limited upside but for those in leagues that emphasize the big play, both he and Lawson should be considered late round sleepers... When talking about the Cowboys I mentioned the two different schools of 3-4 defense. The Niners are another example of the "Wade Phillips" branch, which means 2 things. A) Their success is largely dependent on pressure and taking advantage of big play opportunity. B) The scheme favors the right inside linebacker to lead the club in tackles. For years Derek Smith has been the Niners leading tackler. He played the middle in the 4-3 before the Nolan regime took over and in the first two years under Nolan he held the right inside job. In '05 Smith led the club with 90 solo stops and he was on pace to capture that honor again last season before missing the final 4 games with injury. Prior to last season Smith had been dependable as they come both for the Niners and fantasy owners. The only problem is, he simply isn't a playmaker. In 74 starts dating back to '02, Smith has 6.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 4 recoveries and 1 interception. The vast majority of those meager numbers came prior to the implement of the 3-4. Enter rookie Patrick Willis. As a senior at Mississippi Willis was a first team all American, led the SEC in tackles, was named defensive player of the year in the conference and took home the Butkus award as the best linebacker in college football. Willis is blazing fast for a man of 242 pounds and is a great athlete but most importantly he is a playmaker. According to the coaches there will be a competition between Willis and Smith for the starting job at right ILB. Sure there will. Smith has about as much chance at winning that job as I do. I would be more excited about Willis if he were at MLB in a 4-3 but there is no doubt he is going to be very productive. His situation is not as good as that of fellow rookie Paul Posluszny but the way I see it, one of those two is going to lead all rookies in tackles this year... Brandon Moore is pretty well cemented as the other starter on the inside. He opened last season at OLB opposite Lawson but was shifted inside early on. Aided by the injury to Smith, Moore was able to claim the club tackle title in '06 but more significantly he led the club with 6.5 sacks, most of which came wile lining up on the inside. He'll make a good compliment to Willis and might prove to be a solid third starter... One very important note here. The Niners were the only team in the league last season who had no defender reach the 70 tackle mark. Moore led the club with a mere 63. Chances are this was a fluke caused by the shuffling of players due to injury, but it is something I find hard to blowing off completely. 

Fantasy Prospects

• OLB Manny Lawson - Sleeper in leagues that emphasize sacks
  
• OLB Tully Banta-Cain - Sleeper in leagues that emphasize sacks
  
• OLB Parys Haralson - Injury sleeper
  
• LILB Brandon Moore - Sleeper, possibly a 3rd starter, probably solid depth
  
• RILB Patrick Willis - Quality #2 starter at the least with huge upside, preseason favorite for defensive rookie of the year
  
• RILB Derek Smith - Injury sleeper with limited potential

Defensive Back

After finishing with the 26th ranked pass defense in '06, improvement in the secondary was high on the Niners priority list this offseason Their answer was to sign arguably the best corner and best safety free agency had to offer. There are some who believe Nate Clements is over rated and now over paid to boot, but it's hard to argue with his numbers. In 6 years with the Bills he totaled 23 interceptions, forced 13 fumbles and scored 7 times. At 6'1" and 215 he is a physical corner who can handle the leagues bigger receivers yet Clements is fast and athletic enough to stick with the speed guys. Durability has been a big problem for San Francisco corners in recent year but the club is confident they have solved that problem with Clements who hasn't missed a game in since joining the league in '01. As a fantasy option Clements is unusually predictable for a corner. In six seasons he's never recorded fewer than 51 solo tackles and only once posted more than 58. In '05 he broke out for 81 solos but those numbers were influenced by a change in scheme that landed him at left corner in a cover 2. The other half of this equation is the history in San Francisco. In '05 Shawntae Spencer led the clubs defensive backs with a strong 74 tackles, in '06 both he and Walt Harris finished in the 50+ range. The bottom line here is that Clements has the potential to put up 70+ tackles and be a quality #3 starter. However, as with the vast majority of corners, he's not a guy you want to count on as more than a backup... The Niners have been looking for a player like Michael Lewis since well before Mike Nolan took over the team. Don't make the mistake of looking at what happened to Lewis last season when he was made a scapegoat for a struggling Eagles defense. He didn't suddenly stink after three solid seasons as their starting strong safety, and his benching obviously didn't help Philadelphia. In fact it probably made a substantial contribution to their finishing 26th versus the run. The Philly defense made some changes that made Lewis a less than perfect fit for their scheme, but it certainly doesn't mean that he can't be successful in the right situation. San Francisco is about as right a situation as can be found for a guy with Lewis' talents. The 3-4 scheme gives us some of the most consistent and productive defensive backs in the fantasy game, guys like Kerry Rhodes, Troy Polamalu, Sean Jones and Rodney Harrison. All four of whom are likely to finish among the top 20 this season, and all of them play SS in 3-4 schemes. There are good reasons that the Niners didn't produce a top shelf DB last season. They had no one with the skill set and/or talent that Lewis brings to the table, but most significantly, the position was a revolving door with 3 different guys making starts over the course of the year. Keith Lewis made 10 starts at the position. In those games he totaled 55-16-1 with a fumble recovery, a fumble forced and 2 picks. Project those numbers over a full season and you get 88-26-2 with a hand in 6 turnovers. That from a guy who is a marginal starter from a talent perspective. Pass defense is not Lewis' strength but at 211 pounds he is a very physical presence over the middle, is excellent in run support and will make a solid contribution in the big play columns. In '05 he tied Adrian Wilson for the second most tackles in the league by a DB with 93 and prior to last year's fiasco in Philly, he had finished among the fantasy games top 25 defensive backs in three straight seasons, including a top 10 in '05. He's a perfect fit in the Niners scheme, he's durable and he's a proven commodity. If you don't see him as a top 12 DB you just might be missing the boat... Walt Harris will be highly overrated on draft day by some owners. He exploded for a career best 8 interceptions and a top 10 ranking in '06 but the soon to be 33 year old journeyman averaged just 2 picks over his first 10 seasons and hasn't reached 50 solo tackles since '99 when he was with the Bears. I suppose there is at least some chance that his big year was due to the scheme or situation but we're talking about a guy who ranked in triple digits in each of the 6 previous seasons. Let someone else take the chance... Mark Roman has been penciled in at FS but with the addition of Michael Lewis, Keith Lewis will be looking for a place to play. Neither of these guys are great players but Lewis would probably be an upgrade over a very average Roman. 

Fantasy Prospects

• SS Michael Lewis - Quality #3 at worst with top 10 potential
  
• FS Mark Roman - No value
  
• FS Keith Lewis - Sleeper with limited upside
  
• SS Darnell Bing - Injury sleeper
  
• CB Walt Harris - Possible starter if you much play corners
  
• CB Shawntae Spencer - Injury sleeper in corner required leagues
  
• CB Nate Clements - Possible #3 starter, potential stud in corner required leagues

St. Louis Rams

Defensive Line

Leonard Little was a one man show for the Rams in '06 when he piled up a career best 56 tackles, 12 sacks and a top 5 fantasy ranting. No one else on the St. Louis line reached 35 tackles and they all combined for only 8.5 sacks. What's most impressive is that he was so productive despite being the focal point of most blocking schemes and facing a multitude of double teams. In fantasy circles Little is an underrated player at this point in his career. He's put up 9.5 or more sacks 5 times in the past 6 years but has only reached 40 tackles three times in his career. What many owners overlook is the fact that all three of those 40 tackle seasons have come within the past 4 years. Veteran owners tend to think of Little as the guy who put up 14.5 sacks in '01 and 12 in '02 but had just 28 and 37 tackles to go with them. He began his career as a flyweight linebacker who was transformed into a pass rush specialist early on and has spent much of his 10 year career working to get bigger and tougher versus the run. He now check in at about 265 pounds and has become one of the leagues most productive every down ends. I don't know that we should expect 50+ tackles from him every season but 45-50 tackles and double digit sacks is a legitimate expectation, especially now that he has someone on the other end that offenses have to pay attention to... When the Rams traded for James Hall the move didn't get much attention. Once the season starts it might get a lot more. St. Louis has been searching for a good player to pair with Little since Grant Wistrom left for Seattle. Granted there is some risk with Hall who has struggled through injuries for the past couple of years, but the reward could be huge. In '05 Hall fought a nagging groin problem that restricted his quickness and took a serious bite out of his sack totals. Ultimately he missed only 2 games and though his 5 sacks were far from stellar, the 52 solo tackles and 3 forced fumbles are hard to ignore. He showed no lingering effect in '06 when he was on pace to go 41-14-12.5 before suffering a shoulder injury that ended his season after just 7 games. There are a ton of NFL players who have had very similar injuries, had the same surgery and have never had a problem again. At 30 years of age, Hall is not a spring chicken in NFL terms but he's hardly over the hill either. The injury history simply doesn't scare me, especially when you look at the potential production. Hall has produced or been on pace for 40+ tackles in four consecutive seasons. In two of the past three years he's produced or been on pace for 11+ sacks. Were it not for the injuries he would almost surely have 3 consecutive top 20 finishes to his credit. Like Little, Hall has been putting up strong numbers with very little help. In Detroit he had been the only significant pass rush threat since Robert Porcher retired and has been the focus of pass blocking schemes since his breakout year in '04 when he buried the QB 11.5 times. For the first time in his career Hall will be working as an every down player with a stud bookend opposite him to help take the heat off. He's a proven 40+ tackle and double digit sack guy, in the best situation of his career. Barring injury Hall is a serious threat to make the top 15 this season... La'Roi Glover is one of the few players to ever lead the league in sack from the tackle position, but that was a long time ago in a galaxy far far away. Since that huge season in '00, Glover has remained one of the games best interior pass rushers but his numbers have been much more "human". Take away the '05 campaign in which he didn't hold a full time role with the Cowboys, and Glover has averaged about 34 tackles and 6.5 sacks over the past 6 seasons. He hasn't been a dominating player for a long time but can be a quality option as a backup in tackle required leagues... The Rams used a first round pick on Adam Carriker in hope that he can be the first player since Glover to put up 17 sacks from an inside position. They won't get that much production from him but Carriker does seem to have a very bright future. He has all the tools to become a dominating player. At nearly 300 pounds Carriker is exceptionally strong and very tough to move. He's fast for a big man, instinctive, plays with great intensity and has excellent intangibles. From a production standpoint there is a lot to be excited about. In his final 2 seasons at Nebraska he totaled 95 solo tackles and 16.5 sacks, against very good competition. He's also a versatile player who could easily make the transition to end if called upon to do so. Everyone should consider this kid a sleeper but owners in tackle required leagues should be drooling. 

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Leonard Little - Quality #2 starter with strong top 10 potential
  
• DE James Hall - Quality depth at the least with big upside
  
• DE Victor Adeyanju - Injury sleeper
  
• DT La'Roi Glover - Decent depth in tackle required leagues
  
• DT/DE Adam Carriker - Sleeper, possible stud for tackle required leagues
  
• DT Claude Wroten - Injury sleeper, short yardage guy

Linebacker

When the Rams signed Will Witherspoon last offseason they expected him to be a difference maker and so did we here at FBG. He didn't disappoint anyone. Witherspoon not only led the club with and impressive 102 solo stops but was active in the big play columns as well with 3 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and a recovery. He was on pace for a top 10 finish before a late season mini-slump dropped him back a couple of places. The one concern with Witherspoon is size. He's only 231 pounds and the pounding of a 16 game schedule seemed to catch up with him a little in December. Over the first 12 games of '06 he averaged just a hair under 7 solo tackles a game and with the exception of 1 sack, recorded all of the previously mentioned big plays along with collecting 9 passes defended. Over the final 4 games he averaged just under 5 tackles a game with a week 17 sack as his lone contribution outside the tackle columns. No one in the Rams organization is happier to see Adam Carriker than Witherspoon. La'Roi Glover is a good player but neither he nor last year's starter Jimmy Kennedy are guys who do a great job jamming up offensive linemen and keeping them off the linebackers. Carriker is that kind of guy and should make Witherspoon even better. One thing that left me a little puzzled at the end of last season is that Witherspoon failed to intercept a pass. This after picking off 6 and totaling 28 passed defended over his final two seasons in Carolina. At this point I am chalking that one up as a fluke. He is an outstanding linebacker in a very productive situation and will land in or around the top 10 again in '07... Pisa Tinoisamoa missed 5 games last season but even when healthy he was very disappointing. In 11 starts he totaled just 29-7-2. He's a very fast and athletic player but is not the most physical of linebackers and has never been better than decent depth in fantasy terms. There is no reason to expect that he will suddenly step up this year and with the addition of Chris Draft there is even a chance that Tinosiamoa could be busted to a backup role. Draft is a tad smaller and not nearly as fast or athletic as Tinoisamoa but he is a head buster who brings a much more physical presence to the table. Draft has become a journeyman who is playing for his 3rd different team in 4 seasons, but he can be productive. He totaled 103 tackles as an injury replacement for the Falcons in '03 and put up his second top 20 finish last season with an 83-26-6.5 as Carolina's replacement for Dan Morgan. Heading to camp Draft is supposedly the team's top backup at all three LB positions but the coaching staff wants this defense to be physical so don't be surprised if he ousts Tinoisamoa at some point... Brandon Chillar is the biggest of the Rams linebackers at 250+ pounds and has solidified himself as the team's SLB. He's very good at blowing up lead blockers and stands up well at the point of attack. While Chillar does a fine job for the Rams, he is in a traditional SLB role which means his box score production will be limited by the scheme... One quick note here, St. Louis stats keepers are extremely stingy when it comes to handing out assists. There are just a handful of clubs that awarded fewer than 200 of them last season and several teams that handed them out like candy with over 300. St. Louis was by far the lowest giving only 88. In contrast, the next lowest total was in the area of 148. If your scoring counts assists equal to tackles, Rams players are at a significant disadvantage and their value should be adjusted accordingly. 

Fantasy Prospects

• MLB Will Witherspoon - Excellent #2 starter with top 10 potential
  
• WLB Pisa Tinoisamoa - Decent depth at best
  
• SLB Brandon Chillar - Minimal value
  
• OLB/MLB Chris Draft - Sleeper/Injury sleeper, potentially a decent #3 starter

Defensive Back

St. Louis had new faces in the secondary last season but they pulled together quickly to make their 8th ranked pass defense the strength of the unit. Journeyman Corey Chavous was plucked from the free agent market and did a fine job replacing long time starter Adam Archuleta at SS. Chavous is a dependable player who makes all the routine plays and rarely makes mistakes but he's not a particularly physical guy and doesn't make many special plays. In '03 he blew up for 74 solo tackles, a career best 8 picks and the only top 20 finish of of his 9 pro seasons. Since that time he has just 4 interceptions with only 1 coming in '06. On the positive side, his first season in St. Louis did provide a new career best of 77 solo stops for Chavous, landing him in the top 35 and making him a consistent and dependable backup. He never reached double digit fantasy points in '06 but turned in 5 or more 13 times, averaging nearly 7 in those games. Having just one season with the team, it's hard to say if those numbers are going to be the norm for Chavous but they do give reason for optimism... Oshiomogho Atogwe (otherwise known as O.J.) earned his first starting role at FS in '06 and performed very well. As is often the case with free safeties, his tackle production was respectable but unimpressive. Atogwe however, was able to make a significant big play impact that elevated him into the top 25 by seasons end. He had 3 picks, a fumble recover and a sack and seemed to have a particular knack for separating the ball from the carrier. His 5 forced fumbles were second best on his own team (Leonard Little had 6) but still rated among the top dozen or so in the league. Too much dependency on big plays makes for very inconsistent fantasy production but Otogwe's 66 tackles were enough to help him score 5+ points in 11 contests, reaching double digits 4 times. Otogwe is entering just his third season so chances are he hasn't played his best football yet. At this point he's not a guy you want in your lineup every week but he should make a solid backup and there is an upside... In last year's first round pick Tye Hill the Rams have a long term solution at one of their corner positions. He has great natural cover skills to go along with blazing 4.30 speed. The one knock on Hill is a lack of size. He checks in at only 5'10" and 185 pounds and is not the most physical of corners. In his first pro season Hill opened in the nickel role but by the end of October he had moved into the lineup. His numbers picked up a little as a starter but the rookie corner rule didn't come into play. In just his second season he is already established as the Rams best corner and will certainly not be picked on. Especially when you consider the situation opposite him. Fakhir Brown was supposed to be paired with Hill but like so many others he has been bitten by the commissioners office and will sit the first 4 games. In his absence veterans Lenny Walls, Ronald Bartell and third round pick Jonathan Wade are expected to contend for the job. Bartell has the early advantage. He was working with the first unit during mini camps and into the first days of training camp. He's a talented player and a former second round pick but Bartell spent most of his first 2 seasons working at safety. Walls is no better than a serviceable veteran and is no threat to capture the position long term. Wade on the other hand, may be the future of the position anyway. If he plays well enough to earn the job in camp it may be tough for Brown to recapture it come week 5. The bottom line here is that the Rams corners offer very little in fantasy terms and are at best, unstable. 

Fantasy Prospects

• FS O.J. Atogwe - Quality depth with potential to be a solid #3
  
• SS Corey Chavous - Quality depth
  
• SS Jerome Carter - Injury sleeper with some potential
  
• CB Tye Hill - Possible depth in corner required leagues
  
• CB Fakhir Brown - Minimal value at best, suspended for first 4 games
  
• CB Ronald Bartell
  
• CB Lenny Walls - No value
  
• CB Jonathan Wade - Deep sleeper, rookie corner rule could come into play

Arizona Cardinals

Defensive Line

It's not a matter of if the Cardinals will commit to a 3-4 scheme but when. Early in the offseason the new Arizona coaching staff told us that they were going to add a 3-4 package to their playbook but would continue to work out of a 4-3 base defense. As we get closer to the regular season we are hearing a lot more about their 3-4 than anything else. The coaching staff knew where they wanted to go from day one. How fast they got there was destined to depend on how quickly they could acquire the correct talent. The more they see of their current players, the better they feel about making the switch sooner rather than later. Any way we look at it the 3-4 is in the mix now and is the future for certain, making this a very shaky situation for us. Bert Berry and Chike Okeafor will likely see more time at OLB than at DE. You need to know if your league is going to call them linemen or linebackers. Many software programs and league hosting sites are slow to react when players change positions. Particularly defensive players. For example, Myfantasyleague.com still has the Jets Bryan Thomas at DE. I was able to take advantage of this glitch and play him at DL all season. Berry and Okeafor may prove to be very good at their new positions but neither of them are going to put up great fantasy numbers as linebackers. However if they can still be played as DL, they could have very good value... When the Cards are in the 3-4 they will plant 335 pound rookie Alan Branch at the nose tackle position where he will be asked to anchor the run defense and keep the play side guard from releasing clean on the inside linebackers. It's very rare for a player at this position to have a big fantasy impact but it's not impossible. Kelly Gregg once went 63-17-3 with a top 15 ranking in the Ravens 3-4. Branch is a gifted player with a rare combination of size and skills. The cards are stacked heavily against him but there is a chance he could give us some production, especially those in tackle required leagues... Darnell Dockett and Antonio Smith will start at end in the 3-4. Both of them have the right physical traits to be successful in that role. Neither are great pass rushers but they are mobile and stand up well versus the run. That said, it would be a surprise to see either of them be productive enough to suit our purposes. 

Fantasy Prospects

• DE/OLB Bert Berry - Good sleeper if you can play him at end
  
• DE/OLB Chike Okeafor - Good sleeper if you can play him at end
  
• DE/DT Darnell Dockett - Possible backup in tackle required leagues,
  
• NT Alan Branch - No value
  
• DE/DT Antonio Smith - Minimal value at best
  
• NT/DE Gabe Watson - No value

Linebacker

I talked about Bert Berry and Chike Okeafor with the linemen but it's one of the inside guys who will have the most value here anyway. The problem for us is going to be guessing which inside guy. After loosing most of his first three seasons to injury, Gerald Hayes finally stepped up in '06. Hayes didn't completely beat the injury bug last year but he was on pace for nearly 92 tackles before sitting out the final 2 games with sore ribs. Hayes did an excellent job at MLB in a 4-3 and even made a fair contribution in the big play department with 3 picks, a couple of forced fumbles, 6 passes defended and a sack. Though he is certainly not a liability in coverage, Hayes is a physical player with decent size, and is particularly strong versus the run. His style of play reminds me a lot of Cleveland's Andra Davis. When/if the club lines up in a 4-3, Hayes will be the middle backer. In the 3-4 he could prove to be a very good fit at one of the ILB positions. Hayes has the tools to be very box score productive in either alignment. In fact the only things likely to stop him are injury or Karlos Dansby. With the previous coaching regime Dansby worked at SLB and was one of the leagues most productive from that position. Rarely do strong side backers reach the 75 tackle plateau but had Dansby not missed a game in '05 and 2 in '06, he would have reached that mark in each of the past two season. He is fast, very physical, loves to hit and maybe most importantly, is an excellent pass rusher who is coming off a career best 8 sacks. There have been instances in the past where both inside guys in a 3-4 were very productive. Most notably the '02 & '03 Texans who had both Jamie Sharper and Jay Foreman at or very near triple digit tackles. Sharper commanded a little more value due to superior big play production but both players were top 15 guys. I don't see both Dansby and Hayes being that productive here, but anything is possible. There has been no definitive word as to which side these guys have been lining up on during workouts but it's noteworthy that Ken Wisenhunt comes from the coaching tree that favors the left ILB position. The info that is available suggests that Dansby is playing that position. My educated guess is that both guys will finish in the area of 80 solo stops but due to his rush skills Dansby is likely to show up stronger in the big play columns so if forced to choose between the two I would have to take Dansby... Dynasty owners in particular should keep an eye on rookie Buster Davis. Davis weighs in at a solid 239 but at just under 5'10", his height probably played a role in his drop to the third round in April. This kid is going to be a good player. He's strong, smart, instinctive and strong in coverage but the two things I like most about Davis are his durability and the nasty streak he displays. The organization didn't draft this kid to have him be a backup. With both Dansby and Hayes having a history of injuries, Davis could get his chance early and once he gets on the field it will be tough to get him off it. At worst he takes over the next time someone's contract is up. 

Fantasy Prospects

• ILB Karlos Dansby - Quality #3 at the least with major upside
  
• ILB Gerald Hayes - Should be a quality backup at the least, lots of upside but plenty of risk to go with it
  
• ILB Buster Davis - Injury sleeper, dynasty alert

Defensive Back

This is the year that Antrell Rolle shows us what he's really made of. As a rookie in '05 Rolle made just three starts, but in those three games he recorded a monstrous 25 tackles and an interception. After missing nearly his entire first year with a knee injury, Rolle qualified for the rookie corner rule in '06. He finished with a very respectable 79 solo stops but only 1 interception. Having 19 starts under his belt, Rolle is at the stage where most talented young corners begin to show a lot of improvement on the field, which generally translates to a decline in the box scores. By the end of this year we will know if Rolle is another Antoine Winfield/Charles Tillman type who can be counted on regularly, or if he was a one year wonder who will steadily decline into fantasy obscurity. On the positive side, Rolle is not a little guy and doesn't shy away from contact. There is also the point that many great defensive backs don't make a lot of big plays as rookies, but improve greatly in the second and third years. A decline in tackle numbers could be offset by improvement in other areas. On the other hand, there aren't many 3-4 corners who can be counted on for much in the fantasy game. The ones who do make a splash tend to do it with a whole lot of help from the big play. If you have to start corners Rolle still belongs high on your value chart. For everyone else, I would be very hesitant to look at him as more than a 4th or 5th DB... With David Macklin moving on, Eric Green returns to the starting role. Green worked as the nickel corner last year after starting 13 games when Rolle was injured in '05. He does a more than adequate job in coverage but doesn't seem to have a knack for making big plays and is not very physical. Green is a fairly talented player who could emerge as a very good compliment to Rolle, but he's not the kind of player we can expect to make much of a statistical splash... Strong safety Adrian Wilson has a long history of quality fantasy production that includes 4 top 10 finishes in the past 5 years. He's very consistent, makes a good number of big plays and is durable, having missed only 2 starts in 6 years due to injury. There is also the 3-4 factor. In some of the previous team blocks I pointed out that many 3-4 schemes favor the strong safety to be very productive. Last season Wilson was among the top 5 defensive backs in nearly any scoring system. It would be hard to for him to improve, but at the least the scheme change shouldn't have much of a negative impact. With any major scheme or head coaching change, there comes an element of risk. Wilson has that element but all signs point to yet another big season for him... Aaron Francisco and Terrence Holt will compete throughout camp for the starting job at FS. Both of these guys are decent players but they are far from stars. That said, either of them will be an improvement over Robert Griffith who held the position last season. As for fantasy consideration, I'll just point out that no 3-4 FS finished among the top 100 last season. 

Fantasy Prospects

• SS Adrian Wilson - Stud! possible top 5
  
• FS Terrence Holt - Minimal value at best
  
• FS Aaron Francisco - Minimal value at best
  
• CB Roderick Hood - Minimal value
  
• CB Antrell Rolle - Starter in corner required leagues, depth for the rest of us
  
• CB Eric Green - No value

Seattle Seahawks

Defensive Line

After leading the league with 50 sacks for the '05 season, Seattle fell back to the pack with a thud in '06, totaling 41. There are a lot of clubs who would be excited to knock down 40+ sacks but the Seahawks are far from satisfied. Especially considering that their starting ends accounted for just 8 of those sacks. When the season ended Seattle wasted little time in sending a worn out and injury prone Grant Wistrom packing, and replacing him with former Falcon Patrick Kerney. Kerney isn't exactly risk free himself. His career numbers show a good deal of inconsistency and he's coming off a season ending pectoral injury. At 30 years of age Kerney still has plenty of fuel in the tank. He had missed only three games in his seven seasons prior to last year's injury and pectoral surgery, while serious, is rarely a long term problem. It's something that numerous players have successfully recovered from. Kerney sat out the teams mini camps and is expected to be eased back into action during the preseason A large part of his being tagged as inconsistent, relates to the period of time when the Falcons turned to a 3-4 scheme and Kerney was stuck in a very challenging and numbers restrictive situation. He's had trouble shaking that rap despite the fact that he's reached double digits in sacks three times since '01 and was on pace to make it four when last season was cut short. There is no doubt he has the potential to be a very productive player and the situation Kerney landed in with Seattle only adds to the optimism. The Seahawks play a high pressure, attacking style of defense and have totaled 40+ sacks three times in the past four seasons. Kerney is a great fit in this scheme and is a guy who will be overlooked by most owners on draft day. He will very likely make an excellent DL2... Bryce Fisher has been penciled in to return as the other starting end but he will get a lot of pressure from last year's second round pick. Darryl Tapp is a rising young talent who recorded 3 sacks while working in a limited role in '06. Scouts and draft experts were divided on him last season. Some loved his heart, hustle and work ethic while others would sight his lack of ideal size and pure speed. The coaching staff believes that Tapp has a bright future. I believe he will capture the starting job opposite Kerney at some point this season, possibly very early. Fisher slipped into the top 25 two years ago with 35 tackles and 9.5 sacks, but if he doesn't play a lot better than he did last season, he won't be starting for long. Heading into the first round of preseason games Fisher owns the job but is a huge risk. Tapp is still in chase mode and should be considered a sleeper with considerable upside... In '05 Rocky Bernard was among the fantasy game's 3 most productive defensive tackles. The 43-9-8.5 mark was good enough to land him among the top 20 linemen and make Bernard a stud for those required to play interior guys. Unfortunately it appears that he was a one year wonder. In '06 none of the Seattle interior guys were able to reach even 30 tackles. This season Bernard, Chartric Darby and Marcus Tubbs are likely to work in a 3 man rotation with Craig Terrill getting in the mix a little as well. After last seasons weak numbers there is little reason to give any of these guys much attention on draft day. That said, don't write them off completely. There is some talent here and the position has some history. One of these guys just might step up and make a good in season pickup for those who require DTs.

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Patrick Kerney - Quality #2 with upside and a little risk
  
• DE Bryce Fisher - Depth at best, on thin ice as a starter
  
• DE Darryl Tapp - Sleeper/dynasty sleeper
  
• DT Chartric Darby - Minimal value at best
  
• DT Marcus Tubbs - Sleeper if you must play DT
  
• DT Rocky Bernard - Sleeper for owners required to play tackles

Linebacker

Over the past two seasons Seattle has put together possibly the leagues fastest and most productive trio of linebackers. Lofa Tatupu is the headliner of the group. In two seasons as a pro he has 179 solo tackles, 6 sacks, 8 takeaways, 17 passes defended and a pair of top 15 rankings. Being barely 6 feet tall Tatupu may lack ideal size, but that's about all he is lacking. He's fast, smart, instinctive, consistent and is both a tackling machine and a play maker. He makes plays sideline to sideline and has quickly established himself as one of the leagues premier linebackers as well as one of the fantasy game's best options. The scary part is that he hasn't even reached the peak of his ability yet. The only thing that keeps Tatupu from taking his place among the fantasy game's elite, is the presence of Leroy Hill and last year's free agent gem Julian Peterson. No other team had all three of their starting linebackers finish with 70+ tackles last season. In fact I can't remember this ever happening. Peterson put up a mediocre 71 solo stops last season but his 10 sacks were second only to Adalius Thomas among the leagues 4-3 linebackers, and were enough to elevate Peterson to a career best top 25 fantasy rating. The question is, will he be able to repeat, much less improve upon that production? In 6 seasons with the Niners Peterson reached 60 or more tackles only twice and put up more than 4 sacks just once. But we need to keep in mind that he was lining up on the strong side during those years. The guy is only 235 pounds with speed and athleticism as his biggest assets. I never understood why San Francisco insisted on wasting his talent on that side but then who am I? Seattle is among the handful of teams who line their outside guys up as left and right rather than strong and weak. Peterson works on the right side which turns out to be the weak side roughly 75% of the time against most offenses. Last year's production proves that he is an excellent fit in the Seahawks scheme and the numbers lend a lot of reason for optimism. As is always the case when someone has a breakout season, there is some chance that he will prove to be a one year wonder, but I seriously doubt it. I believe the change of scenery and the opportunity to play predominantly on the weak side will continue to make him very fantasy friendly player... In '05 Seattle went to the Super Bowl with 2 rookies at linebacker. While Tatupu received all the attention, the coaching staff was quietly just as pleased with their "other rookie linebacker" Leroy Hill. Hill didn't jump into the fire as quickly as Tatupu but the third round pick was able to capture a starting job by mid season. He saw action at both OLB positions before settling in at left OLB where he was very productive, particularly as a pass rusher. At only 6'1" and 225, Hill isn't the prototypical SLB who plays smash mouth with lead blockers. Instead he's an extremely fast and elusive guy who excels by making it tough for those big bulky blockers to get a mitt on him. In the 8 games he started as a rookie Hill totaled 38-17-4.5. In his first full season as a starter Hill reached 70 solo tackles. A very respectable number for a guy who works from the strong side most of the time. Unfortunately his sack total fell to just 2. This had much more to do with the play calling than with any deficiency on Hill's part. With Peterson being so productive as a pass rusher, Hill's number simply wasn't called as often. Hill has been assured that his number will come up much more often in '07. We all know that saying it in June and doing it in September are two very different things, but Hill is an excellent pass rusher who is capable of making a significant contribution, so just maybe they will follow through on this one. He finished just outside the top 50 last season and wasn't much of a factor. If they are more aggressive with him this year, Hill could prove to be a quality backup for us.

Fantasy Prospects

• MLB Lofa Tatupu - Excellent #2 starter with top 10 potential
  
• ROLB Julian Peterson - Solid #3 or excellent backup
  
• LOLB Leroy Hill - Quality depth with a little upside
  
• MLB Niko Koutouvides - Injury sleeper

Defensive Back

The Seattle pass defense finished in the middle of the pack in '06 but the the vigor in which they addressed the secondary over the offseason tells us that they weren't at all satisfied with the play of last year's backfield. The '07 Seahawks will take the field with three new starters in place. Only stud corner Marcus Trufant survived the purge. As a rookie in '03 Trufant was somewhat productive and in '04 he broke out with 83 tackles, 5 picks and a top 10 rating. Over the past two seasons he has just 2 interceptions, hasn't posted more than 60 tackles and has finished outside the top 65 twice. This is not an unusual turn of events for an outstanding young corner like Trufant. It simply means that he has the respect of his opponents. Even with the weak big play numbers Trufant's 55-60 tackles probably makes him worthy of consideration as a backup in corner required leagues but that's about where his value ends... '05 first round pick Kelly Jennings didn't start many games in '06 (2) but he did see a lot of action as a nickel corner. Talent and the experience gained have him ready to take his place opposite Trufant in the starting lineup. Seattle corners have some history when it comes to fantasy production and having a player of Trufant's stature opposite him will be added incentive for offenses to test the first time starter. He's not a rookie at this point but the rookie corner concept could still come into play. If you must start corners Jennings could prove to be an excellent late round pickup... Jennings is a new starter but at least he was with the team last season. The coaching staff was so pessimistic about last years collection of safeties that they replaced them both. The decision to let Ken Hamlin walk undoubtedly had a lot to do with money but they still made very little effort to retain him. The money Seattle saved by not resigning Hamlin was spent on free agent journeymen Deon Grant and Brian Russell. Many people expect this move to provide an upgrade but I'm not so optimistic. Grant has bulked up a little since coming over from Jacksonville and will slide over from his customary FS position to replace Michael Boulware at strong safety. I have mixed emotions about Grant. During his 7 years with Carolina and Jacksonville he never produced more than 65 tackles or ranked in the top 35. He was never a particularly physical player and just seemed very average to me. In his defense, Grant played in the less box score friendly FS position for both of those teams. Russell simply doesn't impress me at all. His reputation is still riding on the one dream season he had 5 years ago with the Vikings when he posted 72 tackles and picked off 9 passes. Unfortunately for Russell and the Seahawks, he awoke from that dream a long time ago. In his other 4 seasons as a pro he has never reached 60 tackles and has a combined 6 interceptions. I see both Grant and Russell as journeymen types who may do an adequate job but are certainly nothing special. All the history considered, there is another side to the coin here. Despite some shuffling of players over the course of last season, both of the Seattle safety positions were rather productive. Hamlin was a top 15 performer with 75 solo stops, a hand full of big plays and 11 passed defended. At strong safety Boulware and Jordan Babineaux combined to go 75-20 with 5 takeaways and 11 passed defended. With this in mind we should probably consider both Grant and Russell to be at least late round sleepers with potential to be quality backups, but personally I would be less surprised to see Boulware retake his position than to see either of these guys make the top 20. 

Fantasy Prospects

• SS Deon Grant - Sleeper with potential to be a decent #3
  
• FS Brian Russell - Sleeper with limited upside, possible backup
  
• SS Michael Boulware - Deep sleeper, pick him up off waivers if something happens
  
• CB Marcus Trufant - May be worthy as a backup for owners who must start corners
  
• CB Kelly Jennings - Corner required sleeper with a little upside
  
• CB Josh Wilson - Injury sleeper in corner required leagues

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Defensive Line

After concentrating on offense for the past couple of offseasons the Bucks finally got around to the needy defensive line. The addition of first round pick Gaines Adams is a big step in the right direction but it's way too little and way too late. Adams has great long term potential and could prove to be a cornerstone for a rebuilding defense, but in the short term he simply doesn't have any help. Greg Spires has done a very serviceable job as the starter opposite Simeon Rice in recent years but he's not a "special" player. After spending his first 4 pro seasons serving as a backup for New England and Cleveland, Spires joined the Bucks in '02. For two seasons he worked mostly on running downs but in '04 he shed a few pounds to improve his rush skills and played virtually full time recording career best numbers across the board (47-14-7.5, 3 FF, 2 FR) and a top 15 ranking. His success was short lived however as the numbers fell considerably in '05 and '06 with 35 and 33 tackles respectively and rankings well outside the top 40 in both seasons. The departure of Dewayne White might give Spires a little boost this year since White won't be there to steal any playing time. On the other hand, it didn't help Spires last season when White replaced Rice for much of the year... The Bucks tackle positions have been a black hole for fantasy production since Warren Sapp moved on. Chris Hovan led the interior guys with 40 tackles in '06 but he could muster just 2 sacks. Booger McFarland was traded to the Colts mid season and no other interior lineman put up more than 19 tackles. To fill the void left by McFarland, the club added journeyman Kevin Carter via free agency and Ryan Sims via trade. Carter turns 34 very soon and is obviously not a long term answer. One thing he does bring to the table is a little versatility. The Bucks are very thin at end. A position that Carter played for much of his career. Sims is a long shot at best. The former 6th overall pick never panned out for the Chiefs who finally tired of waiting and threw in the towel. Hovan and Carter are both capable of decent tackle production and Carter has consistently produced 5-6 sacks over the past 4 years. Either or both of them could be decent contributors for owners in need of DTs... There are a lot of people out there who are going to think I'm smoking crack when I say this, but don't be surprised if/when we see the Bucks throw out a 3-4 look at times during this season. We here at FBG have heard from a reliable source that the club was working on/experimenting with a 3-4 during mini camps. This would actually make a lot of sense looking at their personnel. Spires and Carter would fit well at end in a 3 man front while Hovan would make a strong nose tackle. This would allow the somewhat undersized Adams to shift to OLB where he could take full advantage of his athleticism and pass rush skills. Don't overlook the fact that Adams has experience working from both the 2 and 3 point stance while at Clemson. Adams is a great athlete with a chest full of awards and accolades to prove it. He is versatile and will be successful regardless of how the Bucks line up. 

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Gaines Adams - Probable #3 with a ton of long term upside
  
• DE Greg Spires - Minimal value, depth at best
  
• DT/DE Kevin Carter - Sleeper with limited potential, possible starter in tackle required
  
• DT Chris Hovan - Depth in tackle required leagues
  
• DT Ellis Wyms - No value
  
• DT Ryan Sims - Injury deep sleeper for tackle required leagues

Linebacker

For over a decade Derrick Brooks has helped make the linebacker position a strength of the Tampa Bay defense. As the only returning starter he hopes to continue that tradition into '07. Brooks is an iron man who has not missed a game in his 12 NFL seasons. He's an annual pro-bowl consideration and is hands down one of the best linebackers ever to buckle a chin strap. Over the years Brooks has been just as huge in the fantasy realm. At age 34 he has thus far shown no sign of slowing down. In fact Brooks has played just as well over the past three seasons as he did during his first 10, and has a trip to Hawaii in each of the past three seasons to prove it. Brooks is not quite as dominating in the box score as he had been earlier in his career, but he does have 4 top 20 finishes in the past 5 seasons including a top 5 as recently at '04. There is just one point of concern to consider with Brooks. He's 34 years old and has been in on 1500+ tackles during his career. Sooner or later all those hits have to take a toll. Until he shows us different Brooks has to be considered a very solid #2 starter at the least... Age and injuries finally forced Shelton Quarrels into his next career (a scouting job with the organization) and opened the door for Barrett Ruud to get his shot at the MLB job. It's an opportunity that both Ruud and a large number of dynasty owners have been patiently awaiting since Tampa Bay made him their second round pick in '05. Ruud made 6 starts as an injury replacement last season. If the numbers he put up over those games can be used as an indicator, he should have a very solid season. In those 6 games Ruud totaled 32-13 and he scored at least 5.5 fantasy points in each of them. If you project his tackles over a full season you get a very respectable 86-35. Being one of those owners who has been sitting on Ruud for 3 years, I am cautiously optimistic about his chances. I do however have some concerns. Granted six games is not much to go on, but the fact that Ruud failed to place a single mark in any big play column (including passes defended) doesn't help ease my anxiety or my concern that he may not be on the field in passing situations. Brooks is clearly an every down player so it basically comes down to Ruud or SLB Cato June as the other nickel linebacker. Ruud is adequate as a pass defender but his strength comes versus the run where his physical style suits him well. June, while not nearly as physical or intimidating, is faster, more athletic and undoubtedly the better of the two in coverage. In three seasons as a starter for the Colts, June was only adequate versus the run but he excelled in coverage and proved to be a playmaker by totaling 10 picks and defending 20 passes. I sincerely hope to be wrong on this one but I can see Ruud being a 2 down player with Brooks and June handling passing situations. Even in a 2 down role Ruud could prove to be reasonably productive, and would probably provide serviceable depth. If he somehow lands the every down role he could be a solid 3rd starter... At the SLB position there is absolutely no chance that June will come anywhere near the 96 tackles he posted in Indy last season. In fact, if he doesn't play passing downs he may not reach half that number. There is speculation floating around that June will eventually replace Brooks on the weak side. That's the same thing people were saying a few years back when the club picked up Ian Gold. June is a decent football player but don't pick him up thinking he will some day be Derrick Brooks. He couldn't carry Brooks jock. At the very best June might make decent depth in a 14+ team league in '07... If Tampa Bay uses some 3-4 it's safe to assume Ruud will be an ILB and Gaines Adams an OLB but where do we fill in after that? During training camp Brooks was reportedly working on the outside. There was no word as to what role June might have in this alignment but third round pick Quincy Black was reportedly getting some work along with Ruud on the inside. This is an unfinished story that we need to keep reading through the preseason 

Fantasy Prospects

• WLB Derrick Brooks- Quality #2 starter at the least
  
• MLB Barrett Ruud - Sleeper with strong potential
  
• SLB Ryan Nece - No value
  
• OLB Quincy Black - Injury/dynasty sleeper, 
  
• OLB Cato June - No value so long as he remains on the strong side

Defensive Back

When looking for fantasy production in the Tampa Bay secondary you must first understand what sets this scheme apart from the standard 4-3 or even the traditional cover two alignments. I'll give you the cliffs notes version but if you want an outstanding, in depth look at the scheme, check out the article by Jene Bramel titled "The Tampa-2 Defense and IDP"... In the Tampa-2 the safeties generally play off the ball and are responsible for anything deep and outside the hash marks while the MLB covers the middle zone including deep between the hash. The corners play up at the line and use a lot of aggressive physical techniques designed to throw off the timing of a pass play. By the nature of where the players line up the corners are called upon to make a lot more plays in the run game and have more freedom to go for big plays. Meanwhile the safeties start 15 yards or more off the ball and aren't allowed the freedom to take many chances because they are the last line of defense. With this in mind its easy to understand why Ronde Barber is the most consistent and dependable corner in the fantasy game. Most teams that use this scheme like to have big corners that are very physical. Checking in at about 185, Barber is not particularly big but pound for pound he's tough as any player in the game and is as close as it gets to a sure thing at the corner position. Since '02 Barber has averaged nearly 82 tackles per season with a low of 77 and he is very active in the big play columns as well. In the past 4 seasons Barber's totals are 7 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, 4 recoveries, 12 picks and a whopping 55 passes defended. No other corner and just a few safeties even comes close to his four consecutive top 12 finishes... For the 10th consecutive season Brian Kelly will start opposite Barber, making them by far the longest tenured corner tandem in the league. While Kelly generally plays the same technique and has many of the same responsibilities, he usually finds himself on the weak side of the offensive formation which is often on the back side of a running play. As a result Kelly's tackle production is significantly lower than Barber's. Over his career Kelly has averaged a little less than 50 solo stops per 16 games. That drops him out of the realm of usefulness for most of us but for those who need corners, his big play numbers are enough to give Kelly some value. He missed nearly all of last year after having surgery on a toe, but in his last 3 full seasons has a total of 16 picks... It's rare for any cover 2 safety to have more than mediocre fantasy value. The nature of the scheme has them playing off the ball in most cases and limits their freedom to gamble. In '06 Jermaine Phillips became the first cover 2 safety to ever break into the fantasy game's top 10. With 89 tackles, a hand in 8 takeaways, a sack and 9 passed defended, he was a top 5 guy in many scoring systems. So why then is he not high in any of the rankings here at FBG? Actually there are a few important considerations. First and foremost in my mind, I believe his big numbers were a complete fluke. On both sides of the ball, Tampa Bay finished in the bottom half of the league in most statistical categories last season. That translated to the defense being on the field for over 835 snaps. That's a lot of opportunity. On paper they don't look a whole lot better defensively heading into '07 but the offense should be able to give them more rest. A bigger factor to me is history. Phillips became the Bucks starting SS in '04. He played 8 games that season before being injured and was on pace for 62 tackles with 2 interceptions and 8 passed defended. In '05 he managed 13 games before being injured and was on pace for 56 tackles with 6 passed defended. In fact, to find a Tampa Bay safety who totaled more than 65 tackles you have to look all the way back to the '99 season when John Lynch hit 80. The scheme is simply stacked against the safeties in terms of box score production. The final point is that the coaching staff was not completely satisfied with Phillips last season. He gave up some big plays and missed a few tackles early in the year which prompted reports that he was on the verge of being demoted. It was even reported in mid October that the club was trying to trade him. Enter rookie second round pick Sabby Piscitelli. There is a lot of speculation that the rookie will claim the starting job at some point this season. Only time will tell on this one but there are plenty of reasons to let someone else take the chance... If he wins the job Piscatelli faces many of the same obstacles in fantasy terms. He has been a popular mid round selection in dynasty rookie drafts this year and has some potential but I believe his upside will be limited by the situation/scheme. 

Fantasy Prospects

• SS Jermaine Phillips - Possible starter with a lot of risk
  
• FS Will Allen - No value
  
• SS Sabby Piscitelli - Sleeper/dynasty option
  
• CB Brian Kelly - Depth in leagues that start corners
  
• CB Ronde Barber -The fantasy game's #1 corner hands down
  
• CB Phillip Buchanon - Injury sleeper with minimal potential

Atlanta Falcons

Defensive Line

Over the past couple of years the Falcons have been snake bitten when it comes to injuries, particularly along the front 4. Heading into '06 they looked to have one of the leagues premier DE tandems in John Abraham and Patrick Kerney. Expectations built when Abraham came out of the gate with 2 sacks and a pair of forced fumbles in the season opener but you could see the wind go out of their sails when he left late in that game with a groin injury. By the time the season ended Kerney had played in 9 games and Abraham 8. When healthy Abraham is one of the leagues elite defensive ends. Over his career, when he has played a full slate of games, Abraham has totaled 44 or more tackles and 10+ sacks every time. Unfortunately he's managed to play a full schedule just 3 times in 7 seasons. Abraham has missed time with everything from a sprained knee to torn ligaments in his thumb but the injury that is of the most concern to us is his groin. The rest have healed and are behind him but this one just won't go away. Abraham is a warrior in that he has played through this injury a number of times since it first flared up back in '03, but he simply hasn't been the same player in those games. No matter how bad the injury history, you just can't ignore the potential here. Depending on Abraham as your stud #1 lineman is a huge risk that should be avoided. On the other hand, he's not going to last into the rounds where you would normally pick up depth at the position. Someone is going to gamble on him as their #2 starter, if that happens to be you, just be sure you land some quality depth... In what was largely thought to be a financial decision, the Falcons let Kerney take the free agent bus to Seattle after last season. To replace him they used the 8th overall pick on Jamal Anderson who was arguably the best DE available in the draft. At 288 pounds he has the size and physical tools to be an excellent every down end. The Falcons are counting on him right from the start and have already plugged him into that role. Despite his being a rookie, I have high expectations for Anderson. He started 14 games last year in one of the toughest division one conferences in college football, and put up 65 tackles while leading the SEC in sacks with 13.5. Run support is not going to be a strength for him at the outset but he has the tools to get the job done and that is a skill that can be coached and improved upon through hard work. With Abraham on the other side, Anderson will not be the focus of offensive blocking schemes. Despite the talent and expectations he will be viewed as a rookie until he lights up a few people and gains some recognition, which means he is likely to see plenty of single blocking. The Falcons will run an aggressive scheme that is a perfect fit for Anderson's skill set. Granted he is unproven at this level but the whole point of a fantasy draft is to identify big potential guys and pick them up at the right time. Because he's a rookie Anderson will fall a long way in most drafts but he could very well prove to be a top 15 DL this season... The Falcons hope to leave their injury woes behind them but they are already off to a somewhat ominous start. Since coming to the Falcons in '04 Rod Coleman's 27 sacks is among the league leaders by an interior lineman. This despite his having missed 4 games over that span. He has been a very important contributor to the Falcons front line but they may have to live without him for much of this season after Coleman ruptured a quad in a boating accident early this summer. He is fighting his way back, but according to the most recent reports, it's anticipated that he may not be ready until well into the season. In his place the club will start '05 second round selection Jonathan Babineaux. Babineaux has seen a relatively significant amount of action over the past couple of years. He's not nearly the pass rush threat that Coleman is but the youngster should prove to be more effective versus the run. He probably won't light up the box scores but anyone looking for a sleeper at the tackle position will want to keep an eye on this guy... Grady Jackson joined the Falcons in the preseason last year but was still able to make a significant contribution to the team. He enters this season as the starting nose tackle and the anchor of the run defense. Jackson has given us some very respectable numbers in years past but it's been a long time since he reached 40 tackles and he has just 1.5 sacks over his last 41 games. Don't look to him for much box score help. 

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Jamal Anderson - Strong sleeper with top 15 potential even as a rookie
  
• DE John Abraham - Top 10 stud if he can beat the injury bug
  
• DE Chauncy Davis - Minimal value
  
• DE Paul Carrington - Injury sleeper with limited upside
  
• DT Rod Coleman - One of the most productive tackles in the game but he could miss half the season with injury
  
• DT Grady Jackson - Minimal value
  
• DT Jonathan Babineaux - Sleeper for owners that need tackles

Linebacker

Mike Zimmer takes over as defensive coordinator for the Falcons under Bobby Petrino. Zimmer spent last season in Dallas where he coordinated the Cowboys 3-4. Don't be concerned, he's a long time 4-3 guy and there is no major scheme change on the horizon. There will however, be some tweaks. For many years the WLB position has been the focal point of the Falcons scheme. The result of those tweaks will very likely shift the focal point of the defense to the MLB where Zimmer has moved his best player. There are differences of opinion surrounding the move of Keith Brooking to MLB on a permanent basis. One article I read suggests that Brooking was moved to the middle because the new coaching staff had "replaced" him with Demorrio Williams, and that Brooking will have to "hold off" Jordan Beck to keep a starting job at all. I have to wonder what that guy was smoking? We do agree that the new staff likes Williams a lot but getting him on the field is more like an added benefit and something that will make the club better as a whole. The reason Brooking was moved inside is simply that he is the best middle linebacker on the roster. Brooking prefers to play on the weak side and is not particularly pleased about the move but he is a team player who is willing to do what is best for the club. He remains a cornerstone of the Falcons defense and has been their leading tackler 5 times in the past 6 seasons. He has 6 consecutive top 20 fantasy finishes with 4 of those being top 10. While most people think of him as a weak side linebacker, injuries have caused Brooking to spend a lot of time in the middle in recent years. It did little to dampen his production even when the scheme clearly favored the WLB position. At worst Brooking will continue to be a very strong #2 starter and he could very well add another top 10 to his resume'... When Ed Hartwell was injured in '05 the previous coaching staff also moved Brooking inside and inserted Williams at WLB. The move resulted in Williams leading the club with 100 solo tackles and landing inside the top 10 on the fantasy charts (for the record, Brooking was #7 and Williams #8 that season). Williams made a lot of very good plays and was impressive in many ways, but he was just second year player at that point and made a few mistakes along the way. Rather than building on his production and all the things he did well, the previous coaching staff decided to send Williams back to the pines. Heading into last season Williams was slated to play only on passing downs. By the end of the campaign he was 59-33-1 with 4 takeaways despite starting only 9 games. Williams doesn't have to look over his shoulder this year and even with the tweaks to the scheme, is a very strong sleeper candidate. The one big concern is that he tore a pectoral muscle during a workout in April and is recovering from surgery. He was cleared to practice when camp opened but may not yet be at 100%. If Williams is unable to go at the beginning of the season, look for rookie Stephen Nicholas to fill in for him... Michael Boley was productive for a strong side linebacker in '06 but don't put too much investment in his future box scores. He only put up 68 tackles and his significant contribution in the big play columns were largely influenced by his seeing action as a rush end on passing downs. If Abraham and Anderson remain healthy, Boley won't see those snaps this year. 

Fantasy Prospects

• MLB Keith Brooking - Excellent #2 starter with top 10 potential
  
• WLB Demorrio Williams - Strong sleeper, solid #3 starter with upside
  
• SLB Michael Boley - Minimal value at best
  
• WLB Stephen Nicholas - Injury sleeper with some potential

Defensive Back

After finishing last season with the leagues 29th rated pass defense it's surprising that the new coaching staff didn't clean house. I guess there is a limit to what you can do in just one offseason At least the secondary wasn't completely ignored. The club used a second round pick on Chris Houston and added veteran Lewis Sanders to fill the void at corner. Scouts and draft experts were divided on Houston. Some pointed to his toughness and blazing speed while others compared him to former first round bust Ahmad Carroll and insisted that he should be a second day pick at best. Only time will tell us who is right. One thing is certain, with no one other than Sanders between him and the starting lineup, we should get a look at Houston very soon. Sanders is little more than a journeyman seat warmer who would be no better than depth on most teams. Not to mention that he has spent vastly more time in the trainers room over the past 5 seasons than on the field. If/when Houston breaks into the lineup the rookie corner rule is likely to come into play. Especially when you consider that he will line up opposite one of the leagues outstanding corners in DeAngelo Hall. Hall is the total package. Good size, speed, athletic ability and even great hands. Unfortunately, like most of the better corners in the league, offenses will avoid throwing at him, especially if they have a rookie target on the other side. Hall is yet another example of the rookie corner rule in action. In his first full season as a starter ('05) Hall totaled 59 tackles and 6 picks in 15 games. Last season those numbers dropped to 51 and 4 in 16 games. If history holds true, he will be lucky to break the 50 tackle mark this season... Atlanta addressed the safety positions last offseason when they added veterans Lawyer Milloy and Chris Crocker. These guys were upgrades over the players they replaced but neither of them are anyone to get excited about. There was a time when Milloy was one of the leagues premier safeties. He is still a serviceable player but will soon be 34 years old and has not been the stud of old for several years. In fact, prior to the Bills defensive collapse in '05 which would have made any safety look good in the box scores, it had been 3 seasons since he last reached 70 solo tackles. In his early years Milloy was a serious big play contributor as well, yet he has just 3 interceptions in 74 games over the past 5 seasons. Historically Falcons safeties have been non factors in fantasy terms. The lone exception over the past 10 years was Bryan Scott's '04 campaign. Milloy managed 72 tackles last season and might be worthy as a backup in some leagues but he has no upside at this point in his career and/or in this situation... Crocker is a decent player but don't pencil him into a pro bowl and don't waste a draft pick. In the 15 years that I have been playing with IDPs, no Falcons FS has ever amounted to a hill of beans in fantasy terms. Crocker put up a career best 51 tackles as the Browns starter in '05 but despite the Falcons defensive struggles, could muster just 44 in 16 starts last season. He's a smart and dependable player who doesn't make many mistakes but he doesn't contribute in the big play department. It would take an act of God to land him in the top 40... There is one wildcard in play here. In '05 the Falcons picked up Jimmy Williams in the second round. For the past two seasons he floundered at corner and made virtually no impact at all. The new coaching staff hopes to resuscitate Williams career by moving him to safety. At 6'3" and 216 pounds, Williams sure has the size to make the switch and he has experience at the position having played there during his college career at Virginia Tech. At this point he is working at FS which means he has little chance of making a fantasy impact but keep an eye on him, if he somehow lands at SS there could be a little value.

Fantasy Prospects

• SS Lawyer Milloy - Quality depth at best
  
• FS Chris Crocker - No value
  
• FS Jimmy Williams - Deep sleeper at best
  
• CB Chris Houston - Sleeper, rookie corner rule could apply
  
• CB DeAngelo Hall - Possible depth if you must play corners, big play value
  
• CB Lewis Sanders - No value

Carolina Panthers

Defensive Line

It was not so long ago that the Panthers had one of the leagues most lethal defensive end tandems in Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker. Peppers continues to hold up his end of the deal. In 5 seasons with Carolina he has racked up 52.5 sacks including a team and career high of 13 last season. After getting of to a bit of a slow start in the tackle columns over his first two seasons, Peppers has averaged nearly 47 solos and has a pair of top 5 fantasy finishes over the past 3 years. It's no coincidence that he has made three consecutive trips to Hawaii as well. Peppers is in the prime of his career and has clearly taken his place among the game's elite. He should be among the first 3 defensive linemen off the board in any league and it would be hard to argue against him being #1... Although he has never received the attention from the media, between '01 and '03 Rucker was every bit a productive as Peppers has been recently. During those three seasons Rucker averaged 50 tackles, piled up 31 sacks and landed a pair of top 5 fantasy finishes despite missing three games in '03. Unfortunately it has all unraveled for Rucker since that time. He has struggled to stay healthy, has played through nagging injuries and has seen his production plummet to a career low of 25 tackles and 4.5 sacks in '06. Rucker ended last season in week 14 when he suffered a torn ACL. After the injury there was a lot of speculation that he would retire but Rucker has decided that he still wants to play. He is reported to be ahead of schedule in his recovery and could be available for the season opener. That's all good but it doesn't change the fact that the 32 year old was struggling even before the injury. There are many, myself included, who doubt that he can ever make it all the way back... When their pick came up in round three the Panthers were tickled to see Georgia DE Charles Johnson still on the board. Johnson is not the most gifted of athletes but he has a great motor and overcomes the lack of natural talent with effort. He is a very strong player and at 270 pounds, has the size to stand up versus the run and the ability to be an every down player. Johnson holds his ground well at the point of attack but it's his pass rush ability that made him attractive to the Panthers. He entered the draft as a junior so he only started for one season at Georgia. In that season Johnson posted 44 tackles and 9.5 sacks. Having a guy like Peppers on the other end of the line will be a huge plus for the rookie and will ensure that he gets single blocking on most pass plays. Rucker is still officially listed as the starter but it's pretty much a given that Johnson will see a lot of action right away and it's very likely that he will start from day one. Consider Johnson a sleeper in the short term and dynasty owners in particular will want to keep an eye on his progress... When healthy Kris Jenkins is among the best interior lineman in the league. At 335 pounds he is brutally strong as a run stuffer yet is quick and athletic as players 50 pounds lighter. Early in '04 he was lost to a shoulder injury that required season ending surgery. Jenkins returned in '05 when he checked into training camp at a plump 350 pounds. He was able to start the opener but never finished the game after tearing his ACL. Last July Jenkins tipped the scale at a "trim" 335 pounds and was able to make it through a full season injury free, but his production of 32-9-2.5 was well below the standard he had set before the injuries. That however, didn't stop him from asking for more money and then skipping the team's offseason program when he didn't get it. Jenkins was subsequently shopped around in trade talks which didn't sit well with him. He showed up for training camp and with any luck, will play this season with a chip on his shoulder. In '02 and '03 Jenkins recorded 75 tackles and 12 sacks while ranking in the low 40 range both years. Those are not special numbers by normal standards but if your league requires tackles, Jenkins has a lot of potential and should be considered a strong sleeper... Damione Lewis and Maake Kemoeatu will compete for the other tackle job. Kemoeatu is a 340 pound road block who is an asset versus the run but is not a guy who will make many plays. Lewis checks in right at 300 pounds, is much more mobile and has the ability to use his quickness to be disruptive. Chances are both guys will see considerable action at the position as was the case last season when Kemoeatu worked on early downs and Lewis in pass rush situations. Lewis also provides a little insurance behind Jenkins.

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Julius Peppers - Top shelf stud
• DE Mike Rucker - Sleeper with some potential but a lot of risk
• DE Charles Johnson - Sleeper/dynasty special with a bright future
• DT Damione Lewis - Injury sleeper if tackles are required
• DT Kris Jenkins - Strong sleeper for tackle required leagues
• DT Ma'ake Kemoeatu - No value

Linebacker

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Panthers linebacker here in the first weeks of August. In his six NFL seasons Dan Morgan has never played in more than 13 games and has suffered at least 5 concussions. Yet surprisingly, he has made the decision to continue his playing career even though he is one good hit away from not being able to remember his own name. Morgan is going to put his trust in technology and will play with specially designed equipment that he hopes will do the trick. Obviously Morgan is a huge risk to himself let alone the FF world, but don't overlook the fact that when he plays Morgan is a box score animal. For example, in '04 he played in just 12 games yet managed to post 79 tackles, a couple of sacks, 5 takeaways and a top 20 ranking. Had he played the entire season he would likely have been the fantasy games best defensive player. The cards are stacked against him and chances are it will be a very short season for Morgan but his potential makes him a guy that is hard to pass up in the very late rounds... When the club used their first round pick on Jon Beason they tried to tell us that the plan was to play him on the weak side. Under the circumstances that was the politically correct thing to say. Beason will actually line up at that position so long as Morgan is still in the mix, but the move was obviously made with the expectation that he will eventually replace Morgan in the middle. Beason was a great pick for Carolina in their situation. He is a natural middle backer but is versatile enough to play well on the weak side. He isn't blazing fast but his ability to anticipate and react quickly allows Beason to make plays sideline to sideline. He was very productive in college where in '06 he went 74-8-1.5 despite missing 3 games. The only real downside to Beason is that he has some history of injury. Just how box score productive he will be as a rookie depends largely on what happens with Morgan. If Beason lands in the middle he is a candidate to lead all rookies in tackles and be this year's version of DeMeco Ryans. If he ends up on the weak side he should still be a solid contributor and likely a quality #3 starter. As of the first weekend in August Beason remains a contract holdout. If that drags out too far it could impact his playing status early in the season, but once he reports, it won't be long before he is in the lineup... When the club moved Thomas Davis to SLB they envisioned him as a playmaker from the position. Davis hasn't exactly blossomed into that role yet but there is still hope. He recorded only 1.5 sacks last season but that may be a little deceiving. Without Morgan the Panthers were hurting at LB, so instead of turning Davis loose to rush the passer, he was called upon to spend most of his time in the nickel package in coverage. When you look at his meager 71 tackles from last season, consider that he missed a couple of games. The addition of Beason and a healthy Morgan could free Davis up to take more chances and make more game changing plays. He's far from a stud but Davis should continue to provide respectable depth for most of us.

Fantasy Prospects

• MLB Dan Morgan - Stud potential but a major risk
• WLB James Anderson - Injury/Sleeper, could start at WLB if Morgan is injured
• SLB Thomas Davis - Sleeper with moderate potential
• MLB Adam Seward - Injury sleeper at best
• WLB Na'il Diggs - Dark horse at best
• WLB Jon Beason -Strong sleeper short term, huge dynasty potential

Defensive Back

The questions don't stop at linebacker for the Panthers who find themselves doing some shuffling at the safety positions as well. Long time starter Mike Minter told the club early on that he plans to retire after this season. More recently it has come out that he is dealing with a knee issue that could cause him to turn in the papers even earlier. At best Minter will serve in a backup role this season which leaves the Panthers in search of new starters at both positions. '06 4th round pick Nate Salley is in line to fill one of them and the club recently acquired Chris Harris in a trade from the Bears to fill the other opening. It remains to be seen who will ultimately fit into which position but for the time being Salley will work at free safety and Harris at strong. The problem here is that by skill set, both guys are actually strong safeties. Salley's strengths are his size and experience. He checks in at 6'3" 220 pounds, and is an intimidating hitter who was a 3 year starter for Ohio State. The decision to shift him to FS is obviously not based on his skill set but rather the fact that he has a year in the system under his belt. Salley appeared in just 7 games as a rookie and has just 4 career tackles in the NFL but he does know the scheme better than Harris who arrived from Chicago on the eve of training camp to find that the Panthers speak a completely different language. The free safety position requires more discipline and understanding of responsibilities while strong safety is probably a little easier to learn. Harris played mostly at strong safety for the Bears but he does have NFL game experience at FS and in the long run may be a better fit in that role than Salley. Where these two guys line up may be a mute point when it comes to fantasy terms. History tells us that neither of the Panthers safety positions has provided us with much production. In 11 seasons at SS Minter reached the 70 tackle mark just 3 times and only once graced the top 20. In fact no Panther safety has finished in the top 35 since Minter put up 92 tackles way back in '00. There is one important consideration here. From '97 until last season, Minter was the only player to see a full season at SS in Carolina. I am reminded of the situation in Tennessee where the blame for a long drought of lacking production was laid on the scheme, only to have Chris Hope come in and blow that theory out of the water with a huge season. So has Minter been an average player for all of these years or has his production been handicapped by his surroundings? We may know that answer very soon. The possibility that it was Minter all along is enough to make Harris worthy as a late round sleeper. Dynasty owners in particular should keep an eye on this situation as either Harris or Salley could prove to be a quality long term option... The '06 Panthers showed us both ends of the spectrum when it comes to the rookie corner rule. In his first pro season ('04) Chris Gamble totaled 60 tackles and 6 interceptions for a top 30 finish. He actually improved on those numbers in his second season with a mark of 66 tackles and 7 picks for a top 15. Enter rookie Richard Marshall in '06. Prior to November Marshall saw most of his action in the nickel package. Granted the Panthers injury issues forced them to use the nickel as their base defense at times, but the important fact is that in 8 starts the rookie was the team's 3rd leading tackler with 70 solo stops and finished among the top 20. Meanwhile, in his third season, Gamble's numbers slipped to just 53 tackles and 3 picks which landed him soundly outside the top 50. Skill and experience have made Gamble a player that offenses will continue to avoid as much as possible. His numbers may not fall much further but unless he blows up in the big play columns, Gamble may never see the top 25 again. Marshall on the other hand, will open the season as a starter for the first time and will very likely give us one more quality season before his numbers begin to take a dive. 

Fantasy Prospects

• SS Chris Harris- Sleeper, likely quality depth with potential to be a #3 starter
  
• FS Nate Salley - Sleeper with particular interest to dynasty owners
  
• FS Mike Minter - No value
  
• CB Chris Gamble - Quality #2 starter in corner required leagues
  
• CB Ken Lucas - Injury sleeper in corner required leagues
  
• CB Richard Marshall - Stud in corner required leagues, quality depth for the rest of us

New Orleans Saints

Defensive Line

The Saints made no important changes or additions to their defensive line over the offseason so there is not a lot of mystery here. New Orleans gives us a pair of perennial top 15 defensive ends in Charles Grant and Will Smith. Both players are productive across the board but each has his own particular strength. In Grant's case that would be tackle production and consistency. In '05 he played through a turf toe injury that severely limited the first step in his his pass rush. As a result Grant collected only 2.5 sacks, but even with the injury he managed a very solid 44 tackles. If we throw out that season and look at the other three that he has spent as a starter, Grant's numbers are simply impressive. In those seasons he averaged 55 tackles and totaled 27.5 sacks. All three of those campaigns saw Grant finish among the top dozen at the position and he was the fantasy games best lineman in '04. Last season he was able to rebound from the toe injury and finish at #12 but Grant was dissatisfied with himself after posting just 6 sacks. To that end he has dedicated his off season to regaining his pass rush edge. I expect big things from him again in '07 and will not be the least surprised when he give us 50+ tackles and double digit sacks for the third time in his career... Smith is not a tackling machine like Grant but his sack numbers just keep climbing. Over his first two seasons Smith was forced to share time with Darren Howard. As a rookie in '04 he totaled 32 tackles with 7.5 sacks and a league leading 6 forced fumbles. Impressive numbers indeed for a part time player. In '05 he continued to time share over most of the season but an injury to Howard gave Smith 4 starts and a bigger role in general. The result was an impressive 48 tackles, 8.5 sacks and his first top 15 ranking. Howard moved on to Philly last season opening the door for Smith to start at last. He ended up missing a couple of games with minor injury but was on pace for 38 tackles and 11 sacks. In just 14 games Smith managed to finish in the top 20. He enters only his 2nd season as a starter and at age 26 is just hitting the prime of his career. Smith may never reach the 50 tackle plateau but we should get used to seeing him in the area of 40+ and he has the potential to challenge for a league sack crown at any time. Both Grant and Smith should be among the first 10 linemen off the board in nearly any draft... Brian Young is hardly a household name, even among IDP owners. But owners in leagues that require tackles will know who he is. Young finished outside the top 40 in most scoring systems last season but his 36-10-6 mark made him #10 at the tackle position. The Saints have a long tradition of productive interior linemen that dates all the way back to the mid 90s when Wayne Martin ruled the roost and continued with La'Roi Glover who along with Warren Sapp, are the only interior linemen in at least the past 15 years to lead the league in sacks. Young has a long way to go if he is to reach the standards set by those two guys but he should continue to be a quality option for anyone in need of DTs and is a guy who will likely be overlooked well into the late rounds. There is one big problem with Young. In mid July he underwent surgery on a broken foot. There has been no news as to how serious this is or how long it will keep him out... If Young doesn't make it back for the opener it will likely be Hollis Thomas and Antwan Lake at the tackle positions. Thomas won't do much for us but Lake is an interesting prospect. He saw very limited action last season with the Saints but in '05 he started 3 games for Atlanta. In those games Lake was 8-2-3.5 with a forced fumble. He's a deep sleeper buy may prove to be a player of interest if Young is out for an extended period. 

Fantasy Prospects

• DE Charles Grant Solid #1 starter, top 10 likely
  
• DE Will Smith - Stud! probable top 15, possible top 5
  
• DE Rob Ninkovich - Injury sleeper
  
• DT Brian Young - Starter in leagues that require tackles, injury concerns
  
• DT Hollis Thomas - No value
  
• DT Antwan Lake - Deep/Injury sleeper

Linebacker

New Orleans made it all the way to the NFC championship game last season with a linebacker corps made up completely of free agent castoffs. It worked so well for them, they are continuing the tradition into '07. This collection of lunch box totin' blue collar football players proved yet again that teamwork rules the day, even in the pro game. There was very little fantasy production to be found here in '06. Scott Shanle recorded a team leading 74 tackles while 65 stops and a hand full of big plays gave Scott Fujita the highest fantasy rating with a mid 30s finish. Both of these guys had a little value as depth in most leagues but there aren't many owners who started one of them in a championship game. This year's additions to the mix are former Bengals long time starter Brian Simmons and journeyman Dhani Jones. Jones has one big season on his resume' when he racked up 92 tackles for the Giants in '03 but he isn't a difference maker and will very likely be relegated to a backup role behind Fujita. Simmons on the other hand, could make things interesting. The reason Fujita and Shanle were the Saints top 2 linebackers in '06 is because MLB Mark Simoneau is simply a very average player who doesn't make enough plays. Despite being the starter at MLB his season totals were a mere 34-28-1 and his lack of big play production resulted in his standing by the coaches in passing situations. Simmons on the other hand, was a 9 year starter for the Bengals, excels in coverage and is a proven playmaker with 23 sacks, 11 interceptions and 11 forced fumbles to his credit. As of the first weekend in August nothing has changed with the Saints lineup only because Simmons is recovering from offseason knee surgery and hasn't been able to compete. Once he is healthy it won't be a matter of who starts in the middle but rather who sits in passing situations. Simmons is very similar to both Shanle and Fujita in that he's not flashy and doesn't rack up huge tackle numbers. In fact during his career in Cincy Simmons surpassed the 75 tackle mark just once. The bottom line here is that none of these guys are going to win you a championship but 1 or 2 of them might help you to pick up a couple of wins during the bye weeks. At this point the best plan may be to leave them all in the draft pool and pickup the one who stands out in the middle of September. 

Fantasy Prospects

• SLB Scott Fujita - Depth in most leagues
  
• MLB Brian Simmons - Sleeper with moderate upside, quality depth at best
  
• WLB Scott Shanle - Depth in most leagues
  
• SLB Dhani Jones -No value
  
• MLB Mark Simoneau - Marginal player with limited potential in any situation

Defensive Back

Much like the situation at linebacker, the Saints secondary gave us very little to work with in '06. FS Josh Bullocks came in at #76 last season and was the only New Orleans DB to rank in the top 80. Mike McKenzie, Jason David and Fred Thomas will be the top 3 corners. The pecking order between this trio is yet to be determined for certain but in all likelihood it will be McKenzie and David as the starters with Thomas handling the nickel duties. All three of these players are decent corners but the Saints desperately need a true stud to lead the pack. The entire New Orleans secondary accounted for just 8 picks last season with the corner position being credited for only 4, and no individual posting more than 2. David is expected to replace Thomas only because the club spent free agent dollars to bring him in. He's not an improvement in any form other than he makes the club deeper by giving them another above average corner. David cashed in on his Super Bowl ring but in reality he is overrated because of it... There is one fantasy sleeper in this mix. That being SS Roman Harper. Bullocks played all 16 games at FS last season and totaled 63 solo stops. After loosing their rookie second round pick to a knee injury in week 5, Omar Stoutmire and Jay Bellamy each spent time at SS. Obviously there is a little overlap in playing time involved but between the three players they totaled 92-22-1. Harper was actually off to an excellent start when the injury struck. Over the season's first 5 games he was 25-2-1 with a forced fumble and 3 passed defended, and in 4 of his 5 starts he put up 7 or more fantasy points. Harper is fully recovered from the knee injury and has been running with the first team since mini camps. Looking at the guys around him, it would be no surprise to see Harper lead the club in tackles and make a serious contribution in the big play department as well. He's a player who will slide way down the board in most leagues and would be an absolute steal as the #3 DB... In an effort to improve their big play production, the Saints added Kevin Kaesviharn via free agency. He will push Bullocks for playing time at FS and could end up with a lot of playing time as the nickel corner. That is a role he held with the Bengals in '06. Over the past two seasons Kaesviharn proved himself worthy of a starting job with 5.5 sacks and 9 interceptions for Cincy. Were he not stuck behind Madieu Williams he would be a starter for the club. This was an excellent pickup for the Saints. If/when he captures the starting job, he could have some fantasy value as well. 

Fantasy Prospects

• SS Roman Harper - Strong sleeper, potential top 15
  
• FS Josh Bullocks - Depth at best
  
• FS Kevin Kaesviharn- Sleeper with some upside
  
• CB Mike McKenzie - No value
  
• CB Fred Thomas - No value
  
• CB Jason David- No value

That about does it for the preseason edition of the EOTG. I'm going to go sleep for a few days but I'll be back for the weekly version starting in week 1

Best of luck to everyone and as my hero Al Davis says, Just Win Baby!!