Eyes Of the Guru - AFC Preseason ReportPosted 7/25 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.comHello fellow fantasy addicts and welcome to the 11th edition of the annual Eyes of the Guru preseason IDP report. If you're looking for in depth coverage on the defensive side of the ball you have come to the right place. No one covers the game better than The Football Guys and I am proud that both I and the EOTG are a part of the team. You will find nothing but fantasy football in this report. No contract talk, no police reports. Only the stuff that matters. For reference, when I mention where guys finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the recently updated Football Guys scoring system which is nearly identical to the North American Fantasy Football Addicts (NAFFA) league I have run for the past 11 years. Feel free to check it out. Defensive scoring in this league is the standard stuff but keep in mind rankings will vary a bit from league to league. From time to time I will reference the "rookie corner rule". Those of you who are familiar with the EOTG report know what that is. For those who are new, the rookie corner rule is basically the fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie at corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses thus these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Most often these guys are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon) and their numbers will begin to drop sharply after their rookie seasons. When I mention tackle numbers, I do not lump assists and solo tackles together. Unless I make a reference one way or the other, I am talking about solo tackles. Without further adieu... on to the meat and potatoes. Buffalo Bills Defensive Line The Bills enter training camp with more questions than answers along the defensive front. In fact the group has just one sure thing. Aaron Schobel has quietly become one of the leagues best every down defensive ends. He tends to be a slow starter but over the past 4 seasons has averaged 44-20-11 with 12 forced fumbles, 6 recoveries a pair interceptions and 4 consecutive top 10 finishes. It just doesn't get much better than that. Unfortunately for the Bills, after Schobel it gets a little ugly. Chris Kelsay has been listed as the other starting end in recent years but he's been in a time share with Ryan Denney. The coaching staff keeps waiting for one of them to step up and win the position outright but after three seasons it's becoming apparent that it just isn't going to happen. Together they combined for 79 solo tackles and 10 sacks last season but unless one of them can garner the majority of the playing time, they are both doomed to continued mediocrity in fantasy terms. To make things worse, the club acquired Anthony Hargrove from the Rams last season. He didn't make much of an impact in St. Louis but is a talented player who could throw his name in the hat for playing time as well. The position obviously has good production potential so this is a situation to keep an eye on during training camp... The water is even muddier at the tackle positions. The club spent a first round pick on John McCargo last year only to have him miss most of the season with a foot injury. Many believe the Bills reached big time for McCargo to begin with and no one knows what they really have with him. He continues to struggle with the injury and may not be 100% when camp opens or possibly even into the season. Larry Triplett was supposed to be a big free agent addition last offseason. He was a starter but failed to make an impact and proved to be very ordinary. Buffalo traded for Darwin Walker to fill the void but he has thus far refused to report until he gets a new contract and may end up being shipped back to the Eagles. By the time this all pans out Tim Anderson and Kyle Williams may end up seeing a lot of playing time. The bottom line here is that after Schobel there is very little to be excited about.
Linebacker There will be new faces at the linebacker positions in Buffalo this season. Rookie second round pick Paul Posluszny will replace star veteran London Fletcher in the middle, Keith Ellison has been inserted at WLB and Angelo Crowell will move over to the SLB position in place of Takeo Spikes. At a glance this seems to be a considerable downgrade but time may prove differently. Fletcher's wisdom, leadership and production will be missed but the rookie may ease the pain quickly. In many ways Posluszny is a younger version of Fletcher. He's undersized and not exceptionally fast but is a smart, hard working player with excellent intangibles, leadership skills and a motor that never stops. He'll suffer some growing pains that may hurt his team at times but is in a golden situation when it comes to fantasy production. Fletcher's lowest tackle total over the past five seasons was 94 solo stops but it was his big play production that helped propel him to four top seven fantasy finishes. Posluszny will find himself in a target rich environment and should have no problem posting big tackle numbers, what remains to be seen is if he can provide the same playmaking presence. If he can, Posluszny may be this year's version of DeMeco Ryans... Heading into the '05 season Crowell was a little known backup. By the time that season was over he was anything but. Crowell replaced an injured Takeo Spikes in the lineup early in the campaign and made a grand showing. Not only was he second on the team with 80 solo stops but with 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and a pair of interceptions, he proved to be just as much a playmaker as Spikes had been. The club rewarded Crowell with a new contract followed by a promotion to starting WLB which bumped Spikes to the strong side in '06. Crowell now finds himself in Spikes shoes. On his way to a very solid statistical '06 season, Crowell was injured. In his place the Bills inserted another young unknown backup in Keith Ellison. In four starts Ellison made a good showing averaging 5-3-0 with an interception. Money, durability and age obviously had a lot to do with the Bills decision to part ways with Spikes and Fletcher but the play of Crowell and Ellison certainly made the decision easier. What we need to figure out now is how the production will break down. It's been announced that Crowell will play on the strong side with Ellison weak but heading into camp it's unclear if the Bills will play a true strong/weak alignment or if the outside backers will line up as right and left as do several other cover 2 teams. The other important intangible is who will play in the nickel package? We already know that Crowell can be very productive in the right situation but the SLB position can be very restrictive, particularly in the tackle columns. The WLB position is more productive by design but Ellison's numbers will suffer if he leaves the field on passing downs, which is possible if not likely. This is a situation that will require some scrutiny during the preseason My early guess is that Ellison will out-produce Crowell in the tackle columns but playmaking opportunities will make Crowell the slightly better fantasy option overall... One problem the Bills are going to have this year is depth. Mario Haggan has only 27 tackles to show for his three years in the league with most of those coming on special teams. Coy Wire is also a special teams ace who made the switch from strong safety to linebacker last season, and has very little experience at the new position.
Defensive Back Linebacker wasn't the only position where the Bills shed some high priced veteran weight. Corner Nate Clements didn't live up to expectations last season and was ushered out the door, leaving even more questions to be answered. Terrence McGee now becomes the Bills number one corner but there are those (myself included) who question his ability to handle that role. McGee is a good cover man but not a great one. He does a good job against #2 receivers but can he handle the upper echelon guys? We're going to find out because we know that Jason Webster, Kiwaukee Thomas and second year man Ashton Youboty aren't #1 guys. It's hard to get a read on what to expect out of this group. In the cover 2, the corners tend to play closer to the line and often take on some of the safeties run support responsibilities, thus giving them safety like tackle numbers. In '04 Clements was able to ride a flurry of big plays to a top 10 finish despite just 58 solo tackles. A year later when the cover 2 was implemented his tackle production leapt all the way to 81 and he again finished in the top 10. Unfortunately last season was not so kind as his tackle production plummeted and he barely made the top 40. McGee will step into Clements role at left corner which means he will often have strong safety like run support duties. In three years as a starter he's averaged a solid 65 tackles but can he be counted on in the big play department? In his first three pro seasons McGee posted 9 picks but last year he failed to collect even one. There are very few corners who don't present a lot of risk from year to year or even week to week for that matter. McGee comes with plenty of risk but with the situation as it is, he is likely to be a busy guy. If your league requires corners he deserves fairly high consideration. If you don't require corners he may still be worthy of a late round flier as a backup with upside... We don't even know for certain who will start opposite McGee but it really doesn't make much difference. The right corner in a cover 2 generally doesn't get a great deal of opportunity... Donte Whitner was the 8th overall pick of last year's draft so it was expected that he would be a starter but the Bills threw us a curve when they handed the FS position to fellow rookie Ko Simpson. There were a ton of fantasy owners who overspent on Whitner based on his draft position, physical attributes and collegiate production. Those of you who read this report weren't among those owners. Whitner may be an excellent football player and could prove to be a solid fantasy option at some point but in a cover 2 scheme the safeties generally line up well of the line of scrimmage and are responsible for a deep half of the field. Rarely do these guys have enough opportunity to be consistently productive. In a different situation Whitner might be a top 10 fantasy DB but it came as little surprise that he finished at #52 last season. Simpson may prove to be a very good player as well but he lacks the physical presence that Witner brings to the table. As a rookie he landed at #82. Both of these player will improve with experience and the Bills are counting on them to make a much bigger contribution in the big play columns, but neither will ever be near the top of the fantasy game so long as they remain in this system. Whitner might provide solid depth this season and had the potential to be a decent #3 starter but let someone else spend a middle round or earlier pick on him.
New England Patriots Defensive Line Ty Warren, Richard Seymour and Vince Wilfork are arguably the most talented trio of linemen ever to line up in a 3-4. Unfortunately the nature of the scheme makes it very difficult for any of them to sustain any consistent fantasy value. Injuries forced the Patriots to use a 4-3 at times last season and it will likely remain a part of their defensive package but there is little to no chance that there will be a major scheme change in New England... Richard Seymour gets a lot of exposure and is an exceptional player. He's been voted to the past two Pro-Bowls but due to injuries, has been forced to take a rain check for both of them. In fact Seymour has missed time with injuries in four of his six pro seasons. He managed a full slate of games last year but even then nagging injuries limited his role making him virtually a part time player. Seymour was a top 15 DL in '03 when he posted career highs of 35 solo tackles and 8 sacks, but he's not made the top 40 since. In fantasy terms he is at best a deep sleeper... Ty Warren had a huge '07 campaign and as such will be highly over rated on many draft boards this season. Warren finished with an impressive 56-28-7.5 last season and a top 10 finish but keep in mind that he had finished no better than #48 in any of his previous three years. In fact he had only 6 total sacks in 43 games from '03 to '05. It's hard to say how much the team's use of the 4-3 factored into his big numbers last season but history tells us that 3-4 ends rarely repeat great production. Since '02 there have been just two 3-4 linemen other than Warren to finish among the top 15. Aaron Smith was #5 in '02 and Orpheus Roye was 12th in '05. Neither of those players has another top 25 finish to his credit. Like Seymour, Warren is an excellent player but like all the 3-4 ends that have come before him, Warren will be hard pressed to repeat a top 20 ranking. Draft him for depth but let someone else take the chance on Warren in the top two thirds of the draft... At 325 pounds Vince Wilfork is the prototype nose tackle. He has the ability to hold ground against double teams and eat up blockers which is the measuring stick by which the position is judged. Nose tackles in a 3-4 scheme are double teamed on nearly every running play that doesn't go outside the offensive tackles. As such they have very little opportunity to contribute in the box scores. Kelly Gregg is the only 3-4 nose tackle in recent memory to provide any fantasy value at all. He was a top 20 guy on '03. In short, Wolfork may be a stud on his team but he won't do much for yours... Jarvis Green was a factor in the club's decision to use more 4-3 last season. While they were hurting at LB, Green gave them a very good 4th option on the DL. He's not a Pro-Bowl talent but is a very capable contributor who provides solid depth. Green's 7 sacks last season is enough to get our attention. Situations change as the season unfolds and should he land in the right circumstance, Green could make a good in season pickup.
Linebacker For the past several years, when thinking about quality fantasy linebackers, New England hasn't been among the first teams that come to mind. In fact the last time the Pats had a triple digit tackler was back in the mid 1990s when Ted Johnson did it. Tedy Bruschi had a couple of top 10 final rankings in '03 & '04 but that is somewhat of a mirage. He's never reached 80 solo stops in a season but gets huge assist totals, and for those two years, was in the right place at the right time to make a lot of big plays (including 4 touchdowns). Bruschi is 34 years old and has been through a lot over the past couple of years between the stroke and some nagging injuries. He played a full season in '06 pulling off the very difficult feat of recording more assists (59) than solo tackles (54). Obviously Bruschi has a lot more value in leagues that lump assists in at the same value as a solo tackles but for most of us he's no better than decent depth at best... Rosevelt Colvin will start at one of the outside linebacker positions. After recovering from a serious injury in '02-'03, Colvin has been everything the Pats hoped he would be when they gave him the big contract. With 8 sacks in each of the past two seasons, Colvin is a very productive player in leagues that emphasize sack and big plays. Unfortunately he is plagued by the same problem all 3-4 outside backers have, pedestrian tackle production. Colvin has only 43 solo stops in each of the past two seasons... Bruschi and Colvin are set in their positions but after that it gets real interesting. When the Patriots went out and spent the bucks for Adalius Thomas everyone assumed he would step in at OLB where the club missed Willie McGinest last year. Not so fast say the Pats. Thomas has been working at the ILB position as well. He was very successful as an OLB in the Raven 3-4 a few years back so he can be a presence on the outside, but the coaches like Mike Vrabel as an outside guy as well. Vrabel posted 9 sacks in 12 games back in '03, had 7 in '06 and has averaged better than 5 a season over the past five years. This is a situation we need to watch VERY CLOSELY during camp and preseason If Vrabel stays on the inside he will be a 70-35-5 kind of guy who will provide decent depth in most leagues. On the outside, he is a 45-15-8 guy with minimal value to most owners. On the other hand, if Thomas lands on the inside, he could be a cross between Andra Davis and Bart Scott with 90+ tackles and 8 sacks. Thomas is 270 pounds with a rare combination of power, speed and quickness. At RILB he could be a force against the run but still have plenty of opportunity to use his outstanding rush skills. If they elect to leave him inside, Thomas could change the entire dynamic of the New England defense and could become a dominating figure in the Ray Lewis mold. If he lands outside Thomas should still make some fantasy impact and would likely be a solid backup or possibly a #3 starter. What would be a disaster for us here is for the coaches to get cute and shift Vrabel and Thomas around all the time. That would really be no surprise coming from this organization and could basically ruin them both... Depth remains an issue for New England. They resigned Junior Seau who has a great heart but a lot of mileage. After him the rest of the backup linebackers have about 45 career tackles between them with most of those coming on special teams.
Defensive Back Over the past few seasons the Patriots have done so much shuffling and used so many guys in the secondary, that it's hard to get is fix on what to expect in '07. In his first two seasons with the team SS Rodney Harrison was an absolute animal. He finished the '03 season with 94 tackles and a number 1 ranking. In '04 his 89 tackles led to a #2 overall finish among defensive backs. Early in '05 Harrison was lost to a severe knee injury that most speculated would end his career. Harrison wasn't himself last season even before a broken collar bone knocked him out for an extended period, but the fact that he was on the field in week one was amazing. He'll turn 35 during this season and may have lost a step between the injury and age, but Harrison is a team leader who should have little trouble regaining his starting role and could still be very productive... Eugene Wilson has been working at the FS position for the past four seasons but rumor has it he could see time at corner in '07. It's unclear if this is because the coaching staff believes he can give them an upgrade at that position or because they believe that replacing him would give them an upgrade at safety. Wilson missed much of the '07 season after a hamstring injury eventually landed him on IR. There has been little reported about Wilson since the injury so we can only assume that no news is good news when it comes to his rehab. On the other hand, the club spent their first round pick on FS Brandon Meriweather. At 192 pounds, Meriweather has the physical attributes and the skill set to play free safety or maybe corner but he doesn't seem to be SS material, at least not at this point. So what is the plan? Does he eventually replace Harrison or Wilson? The key here for us is to land whom ever ends up with the SS job. The nuances of the Patriots scheme work to make that position the most productive. Harrison's past seasons are one indicator and to reinforce this observation we can look at Cleveland where former Patriots DC Romeo Crennel is running the same system, and where SS Sean Jones emerged as a top 10 DB last season. Meriweather may eventually be that guy but we shouldn't overlook the fact that he is nearly 20 pounds lighter than either Harrison or Jones and probably isn't a good fit... With a league leading 10 interceptions and a strong (for a corner) 60 solo tackles, Asante Samuel was the #1 DB at the end of last season. Like most players he believes that one great season makes him a hall of fame player, or at least that he should be paid like one. Samuel is threatening a hold out etc. We've heard all this so many times that we don't even have to listen to the reports anymore. Just insert a different name and it's all the same. I'll make the same argument that the club is making right now. If last year wasn't a fluke and Samuel is such a great player, where the hell was he for the first three years of his career? From '03 to '05 Samuel totaled just 6 interceptions and never recorded more than 44 tackles. Go back and look at the guys who have led the league in picks over the past decade. Notice how few of those guys are on the list twice? Most of them came back the next season with about half as many. If you are in a corner required league, Samuel should be near the top of the list but the rest of us should let some rookie owner over react to his one big season... There will be a battle royal between Former Bengal starter Tory James, Randall Gay, Chad Scott, Ellis Hobbs and possibly Wilson and/or Meriweather, to establish the pecking order after Samuel or to establish who starts if he should hold out. James is the front runner of that group heading to camp... One problem the Pats don't have is depth in the secondary. In fact they actually have too much depth for our good. Part of the club's success comes from their ability to make sure every player has a role and a chance to contribute. The effect of this approach is that the numbers are spread too thin.
Miami Dolphins Defensive Line There is one big question that surrounds the Miami defense heading to the '07 season, are they a 3-4 or 4-3 club? You will get varying answers depending on who you ask. The reality of it is that they are a hybrid which can change base schemes from play to play, week to week or situation to situation. This unit is unique in that they can do this with great success. Most clubs who attempt this feat do it on a short term basis out of necessity due to injuries or as they are transitioning personnel from one scheme to the other. The Dolphins on the other hand, seem to be doing it by design. They have assembled a unique group of players who can function very successfully in either alignment without requiring wholesale substitutions. The versatility of Jason Taylor is a huge key. He is one of the best hand on the ground 4-3 ends in the game today, yet he can be just as effective in a 2 point stance as a 3-4 OLB. With the hybrid scheme comes the argument, is Taylor a DE or a LB? A players position shouldn't be changed unless there is undisputed evidence that he has switched. At this point Taylor still lines up as an end often, thus he will continue to be considered a lineman in nearly all leagues and all scoring software. The snaps at linebacker are simply a plus for Taylor who is nothing short of the best, most dependable DL in the fantasy game. In the past five seasons he's been the #1 lineman three times and among the top ten in all five. In fact, the two times he fell short of #1 were seasons that he missed a little time. He's averaged 44-23-13 and in the past three seasons has 15 forced fumbles, 8 recoveries, 3 picks and a whopping 32 passes defended, which is unheard of for a defensive lineman. Taylor will turn 33 during this season but age and durability have not yet become a factor as he's missed only a hand full of starts over his 10 seasons and none since '04. It would be difficult to make an argument against Taylor being the first DL off the draft board... Once you get past Taylor the shuffle between schemes takes it's toll on fantasy production among the remainder of the linemen. Matt Roth might make a quality option in a full fledged 4-3 but where Taylor moves to LB, Roth remains at end in the 3-4 alignment. As such his production potential is very limited by the scheme... Vonnie Holliday is one of the most productive interior linemen in the league. His 47 solo stops and 8 sacks were enough to land him on the outskirts of the top 20 last season. In the 4-3 he lines up as the under tackle or "3-technique". This allows him to see single blocking in many instances. When the 3-4 is called, Holliday lines up at end which is not a huge change when it comes to responsibilities but it does put him in position to be double teamed more often. His '06 numbers equaled career highs in both tackles and sacks so there probably isn't much upside for the soon to be 32 year old, but if your league requires interior linemen he deserves to be near the top of your list. For the rest of us he should make a solid #3 guy... Keith Traylor works at nose tackle in either scheme and as such, rarely makes an impact in the box scores. At age 37 he's a fossil by NFL standards and may soon be replaced by rookie Paul Soliai who is basically a younger, bigger model... Depth could be an issue for the Dolphins as they have youthful enthusiasm but very little practical experience behind the starters.
Linebacker If there were a fantasy hall of fame Zach Thomas would be a shoe in. Year after year he is among the top 10 and often among the top 5 at the position. Entering his 12th season Thomas doesn't seem to be slowing down at all. In fact he tallied 103 solo tackles last season and played a full 16 game schedule for the first time since '02. Over the past 5 seasons Thomas has finished lower that #7 only once, that coming in '04 when he was #15 despite missing 3 games. Owners in leagues that score total tackles (combine solo and assists) will place Thomas on an even higher pedestal as he is perennially among the league leaders in assists. Only twice in 11 seasons has he totaled fewer than 50. One of those was the '00 campaign when he missed the final 5 games and still finished with 43. Thomas has shown no signs of slowing down but at age 34 there has to be a little concern. Since '99 he's played a full slate of games only twice and with over 1500 solo tackles in his career, Thomas has a lot of miles on him. Shuffling between schemes obviously had little box score impact on Thomas who lines up at the generally more productive left inside position in the 3-4. Even with the risk and the uncertainty of scheme, he should be considered among the elite fantasy linebackers... The club spent a third round pick on Channing Crowder in '05 with hope that he can be the eventual successor to Thomas. As a rookie he was inserted at WLB where he displayed signs that made many think he could some day be just as good. Crowder showed improvement in his second season both on the field and in the box scores. When the 3-4 is called he lines up at right inside linebacker but the question is, who leaves the field on passing downs? Crowder has a good deal of potential but so long as Thomas remains in the picture everyone else at LB will take a back seat. Dynasty owners should be patient here if you can afford to. Sooner or later Crowder with get his chance... Joey Porter was the Dolphins free agent jewel this offseason. He'll lineup at his usual OLB position in the Dolphins 3-4 where he will pair with Jason Taylor to give Miami their best pass rush tandem since Adewale Ogunleye bolted for Chicago after the '03 season. It's basically a given that Porter will produce in that role. There are two factors that will make or break his fantasy value. How well/quickly he can make the adjustment to SLB when the 4-3 is called, and will he remain on the field in ALL passing situations? Porter hasn't played in a 4-3 since his days at Colorado State 9 years ago. The Dolphins hope he can be to their 4-3 what Adalius Thomas was to the Ravens last season. Porter would seem to have the skill set to get the job done but it's certainly not a given. He has the potential to be a 65 tackle 10 sack guy but its just as likely he'll put up 45 and 7... The Dolphins have no young studs in the wings but they do have capable veteran backups in Donnie Spragen and Derrick Pope.
Defensive Back Heading into last season the Dolphins were unsettled and downright questionable in the secondary. They somehow managed to finish the season with the 5th rated pass defense but that doesn't tell the whole story and it doesn't necessarily prove that the secondary isn't still the Achilles heel of this defense. A strong pass rush and a sound scheme went a long way toward masking the deficiency last season but the tell tale statistic is that Jason Taylor actually tied for the team lead in interceptions with 2 of the club's 8, while the defensive backs managed just 5 picks among them. Surprisingly the secondary received no off season attention. Will Allen was the first round pick of the Giants back in '01. He's a good cover man but New York eventually grew weary of the lack of big play production and cut him lose. In six seasons as a starter Allen has just 9 interceptions with 4 of those coming in his rookie campaign. When the #1 corner averages one interception a year, you know there is a problem. In his last two seasons with the Giants Allen put up pretty strong tackle numbers for a corner but his 43 solo stops and single pick last year are a strong indicator to stay away, even if your league requires corners... There will be competition to determine who starts at the other corner position this year. Being a first round pick in '06, one would assume that Jason Allen would have a strong upper hand over journeyman type Andre' Goodman and third year man Travis Daniels but that isn't necessarily the case. The previous coaching staff tried to make Allen a safety last season and when that experiment failed he spent most of the season on the bench. Allen could bring some pop to the corner position but there has to be some reason behind the hesitation of Saban's coaching staff to play him, and he is learning a new position. If he should win the starting gig Allen could fall under the rookie corner rule as an inexperienced first time starter but keep in mind that Miami corners rarely produce more than 45 or so tackles. Even if you must roster corners, you would almost certainly be better of to look elsewhere... In most situations it's the strong safety who provides the better fantasy option but in Miami it's former corner converted to FS Renaldo Hill. Yeremiah Bell captured the starting SS job last season and turned in a few relatively productive games but he is nothing to get excited about. For that matter, Hill didn't exactly set the world on fire with his 64 tackles and 2 interceptions. The bottom line here is that no Miami DB has provided quality fantasy production in at least a decade and there is certainly no one on the roster who is likely to break the curse. Avoid them all like the plague.
New York Jets Defensive Line New York made the major transition to a 3-4 scheme last season. Most clubs struggle initially when making this switch and find themselves in need of a personnel overhaul. The Jets may be a player or two short of having all the right people, but actually performed surprisingly well for a first year 3-4 club. In most cases coaches change the personnel to fit the desired scheme. With the jets it may have been more of situation in which they changed the scheme to fit the personnel. '03 first round pick Dewayne Robertson was a good player in the 4-3 but he is the prototype 3-4 nose tackle. At nearly 320 pounds he has the girth and power to anchor the run defense and eat up blockers, yet is quick and agile for a big man. Robertson creates problems for opposing offenses in that unlike most 3-4 nose tackles who are relatively immobile, he has enough range to make plays outside the tackles. The nature of the scheme and position are severely limiting when it comes to box score production but it's very noteworthy that Robertson posted career best numbers in '06 and finished among the top 45 defensive linemen. Owners who must start interior linemen might find him to be a very useful option... When clubs switch to the 3-4 it's often the undersized 4-3 defensive tackles who make the best fit at end. Shaun Ellis is an exception. At 280 pounds Ellis is bigger than most ends and while he is a strong pass rusher, run support has always been his strength. Ellis had a couple of very successful seasons in the 4-3, finishing '03 among the top 10 with a mark of 48-21-12.5, and landing in the top 20 in '04 at 38-18-9.5. The change of scheme will put a cramp in his sack totals but Ellis is very capable of repeating his 37-21-5 of last season, which landed him on the cusp of the top 30. Ellis has the ability to be one of the guys who bucks the norm and makes an appearance in the top 20 despite the scheme but don't count on it. Owners in large leagues might pick him up for depth... The other DE position will be wide open heading to training camp. Kimo von Oelhoffen handled the job most of last season but he struggled with injuries and didn't play particularly well. Maybe the cheap shot he put on Carson Palmer the year before weighed on his conscience (sorry, I'm a Bengals season ticket holder). At any rate, the Jets have added plenty of competition for von Oelhoffen. Kenyon Coleman saw a great deal of action as a 3-4 end with the Cowboys over the past couple of years, including several starts in '06. Former Chiefs starter Eric Hicks could be a good fit. He's 291 pounds, plays the run well and is an adequate pass rusher. Michael Haynes rounds out the competition. A first round pick of the Bears in '03, Haynes never panned out for Chicago and is looking for a fresh start. One of these guys should step up and resolve a need for the Jets but they are all very long shots when it comes to our needs... One problem the Jets don't have is DL depth. There is plenty of experience among the backups and several guys who should fit well if plugged in.
Linebacker Linebacker is a position where the Jets found both questions and answers in '06. The big question being, can Jonathan Vilma succeed in the 3-4. The big answer, Bryan Thomas was made to play OLB in this scheme. Vilma was an absolute animal in '05 when he was the fantasy game's top linebacker with 128 solo stops and a very respectable run of big play production. When the club announced the change of schemes prior to last season, there were many who anticipated a drop in production for Vilma. No one expected the plummet that occurred. His 71 solo stops and near complete absence of game changing plays dropped Vilma all the way out of the top 40 in '06 and possibly contributed to the Jets selection of David Harris with their second round pick in April. The question now becomes will Vilma rebound or is Harris destined to become the new centerpiece of the New York defense? Harris is the prototype 240+ pound, bust'em in the mouth, run stuffing, physical presence that many successful 3-4s are built around, but he's a rookie. The smaller, faster Vilma may not be a great fit but he's an excellent player with a year in the system and three in the league. There are some subtle differences between 3-4 schemes that will impact which inside backer is the most productive and there have even been a few instances where both ILBs have been top 15 guys. Rarely however, has there been a 3-4 that didn't produce at least 1 quality fantasy option. It's pretty much a given that Vilma and Harris will start side by side from week one but how the production breaks down is anyone's guess. Is Vilma another Donnie Edwards? Is Harris an Andra Davis clone with speed? It's a situation that warrants our close attention throughout the preseason Bryan Thomas was a tweener out of college that the Jets believed could be an excellent pass rushing defensive end. Over his first four seasons Thomas struggled to earn playing time and floundered when opportunity came as an injury replacement for John Abraham. His first four seasons produced just 7 sacks, but Thomas took to his new role as an OLB in the 3-4 like a fish to water, posting 58 tackles and 8.5 sacks. The scheme will limit him in the tackle columns but Thomas has found a home and could be a 60 tackle 10 sacks guy going foreword. There are leagues in which those numbers would be very desirable... Victor Hobson will round out the starting lineup at OLB opposite Thomas. Hobson actually did a solid job in the first season at his new post, totaling a strong (for the position) 67 solo stops and a solid 6 sacks. Not bad numbers but ultimately the Jets are going to want more from this position. Hobson played well enough to earn another chance and allow the team to address more pressing needs. He's a good player who is well on his way to becoming a quality 3-4 outside backer, but he'll be hard pressed to ever be a great one... With Eric Barton and Brad Kassell backing up, the Jets are set for talent and depth at the inside positions but an injury to Thomas or Hobson would be a serious blow. Backup Matt Chatham has all of 45 tackles and 2.5 sacks to show for his 4 pro seasons and David Bowens is a converted 4-3 end who is learning the position.
Defensive Back The Jets pass defense finished in the middle of the pack last season despite having one of the leagues youngest defensive backfields. They appeared to be heading in the right direction, but that didn't stop them from making Darrelle Revis the first corner off the board in April. They got no argument as many experts rated Revis the top cover man in this years draft. He should step right into a starting role and as such the rookie corner rule could be in effect. Revis is a big physical corner who loves to hit, has good ball skills and will put his nose in there on run support. Jets corners haven't been very productive over the past couple of years but then they haven't had a player like Revis in the fold. In '03 and '04 David Barrett led all Jets corners with 69 and 64 tackles respectively, so there is some history here. There is also the possibility that Revis is another Antoine Winfield or Ronde Barber type. Unfortunately he doesn't have a cover 2 scheme working for him. In corner required leagues he should rate high despite being unproven. For the rest of us Revis should make decent depth with the potential to be a solid #3 starter... Andre Dyson is the favorite to line up opposite Revis. He's a solid veteran who is strong enough to influence offenses to pick on the rookie more often that they test him, but has little chance of improving much over last years 51 tackles and 4 picks. Dyson might make decent depth in corner required leagues... Over the past two seasons SS Kerry Rhodes has emerged not only as a team leader for the Jets but a fantasy stud at the DB position. His team leading 76 solo tackle last season ranked 11th in the league among defensive backs. Add in his bevy of big play production that included 5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, a recovery and 4 picks, and you get a solid top 5 DB in any scoring system. As a rookie Rhodes finished in the top 20 so there is very little concern that his production might be a fluke. In fact he is just entering his prime so we probably have yet to see his best. The general consensus places Adrian Wilson at the top of the DB charts but I see Rhodes as #1B... Heading into last season there were a lot of prognosticators who wanted to argue that Eric Coleman would be the Jets most valuable DB. He had a decent season with 70 solo stops and a top 40 finish but as I mentioned in this article a year ago, the FS position in the 3-4 just doesn't produce great box score production. Just take a look at what last season shows us. Brian Russell 43 tackles in 12 games for Cleveland, Mark Roman 47 solos for the Niners, Ryan Clark 48 stops in 13 games for the Steelers and Marlon McCree 42 in 14 games. To top it off, none of these guys had more than 1 interception. The moral of the story, Coleman is a good player but don't count on him for more than decent depth in large leagues... Depth is another thing the Jets have going for them in the secondary. Former starter David Barrett and '05 second round pick Justin Miller give them relatively strong talent and plenty of experience at corner. There is less experience behind the starters at safety but second year man Eric Smith was a first day draft pick while Rashad Washington two years of experience and saw time in the dime package over his first two seasons.
Cincinnati Bengals Defensive Line Defense remained the Achilles heel of the Bengals in '06 but this time around the deficiencies couldn't be blamed on the line. The Cincinnati run defense ranked in the top half of the league for the first time in years and the pass rush generated a respectable 35 sacks with 26 of them compliments of the DL. Robert Geathers was the main reason for the 25% increase in sack production. In '05 the club tried to make him an every down player. He bulked up a little for the role but lost his explosiveness in the process. Last season Geathers trimmed back down, regained his quickness and became the first Bengal to reach double digits in sacks in nearly a decade. Unfortunately for us, the trade off included giving up his every down role and becoming a passing down specialist. Thus his tackle production slumped to a mark of 28-13. Geathers will remain in the same role this season and is a strong candidate to produce similar numbers. The sacks totals are sufficient to land him a roster spot as depth in most leagues... Justin Smith has been a very steady and consistent contributor over the course of his NFL career, but after six seasons, it's probably time to give up the expectations that he'll some day break out with double digit sacks. At least with Smith you know what you are getting. Over the past five years he's averaged a solid 45-23-6.5. Not great numbers, but over that span he's never fallen short of 41 tackles or 5 sacks and last season's 50-31-7 tied his career best fantasy ranking at #13. Smith will never be an elite NFL or FFL player but he's a very good every down end who is strong versus the run, makes a lot of tackles and is a worthy #2 starter or an excellent #3... Sam Adams was the only significant offseason departure but with the emergence of Domata Peko, Adams may not be missed much. Peko saw significant playing time as a rookie when he spelled Adams often and replaced him all together at times. He's not a road grader like Adams was but at 306 pounds Peko has enough size and strength to get the job done, has a great motor and is much more mobile Adams. As a rookie playing part time Peko put up 21-23-3 with a pair of forced fumbles. He's not Warren Sapp but now that he'll be playing virtually full time, Peko could have decent value for owners who must start tackles... John Thornton is a bit undersized but is a mobile type interior lineman. Unfortunately he has never been able to turn his assets into box score production. Over the past three seasons he's averaged only about 31 tackles and just over 2 sacks. Chances are he will remain the starter but Thornton could lose playing time to free agent addition Michael Myers... Bryan Robinson is likely to remain the official starter at DE but he will give way to Geathers on passing downs. He's a strong run defender but has just 4 sacks to show for his past 5 pro seasons and offers no fantasy value... One guy to keep an eye on here is Frostee Rucker. He was the Bengals 3rd round pick a year ago but spent his rookie season on IR with a shoulder injury. The coaching staff likes his upside and pass rush potential. He's a long shot but will likely get some opportunity over the course of the season. Lets see what he does with it.
Linebacker Cincinnati lost Brian Simmons to free agency and David Pollack to what is likely a career ending neck injury, but they could actually be improved at the linebacker positions overall. Second year man Ahmad Brooks is the player to watch here. The Bengals added Brooks in last year's supplemental draft after he was booted off the Virginia football team for off field issues. At 6'3" and 259, Brooks is a dominating physical presence who has enough speed and athleticism to make plays sideline to sideline. He was widely considered a first round talent and made a big impression by going 10-1 with a pass defended in his first pro start against Tampa Bay in week 6. Brooks started a few more games but having come to the team late in training camp, he was way behind the learning curve and inexperience eventually caught up with him. Once opposing offensive coordinators got some game film they were able to take advantage of his being so raw. This eventually landed Brooks back on the bench but not before the coaching staff and his teammates had seen what he could bring to the field. Everyone in the organization seems to be excited about this kid. With the experience and a full offseason to prepare, there are big expectations. He's obviously unproven but Brooks belongs at or near the top of our sleeper list. The only thing likely to stop him is injury or another off-field problem, and thus far he's been a model citizen... Marvin Lewis was the defensive coordinator in Baltimore when Ed Hartwell was drafted in '01. Hartwell had a somewhat brief but relatively successful 4 year run with the Ravens. The question now being, is he the same player after two injury plagued seasons in Atlanta that resulted in a ruptured Achilles and double knee surgery? Adding to the fog is the plan to play Hartwell at the WLB position which he's never played before. If he can stay healthy Hartwell can be a strong addition to the run defense but pass coverage has never been his strength and he's was not particularly fast even before the injuries. He probably belongs on everyone's sleeper list but I'm not very high on him. Even if he manages to hold onto the starting role, chances are he will give way Landon Johnson in the nickel package. Johnson was the Bengals leading tackler last season and is their best coverage linebacker. They will find a role for him which is likely to include pairing with Brooks on passing downs... Undrafted free agent Rashad Jeanty stepped in at SLB after Pollack was injured last season, and did a solid job. Unfortunately he doesn't bring the pass rush ability that the Bengals believed they had in Pollack. Jeanty proved to be a very serviceable player and will likely continue as the starter on the strong side, but it's highly unlikely he will be able to overcome the restrictions of the position and provide any fantasy value... Caleb Miller got plenty of opportunity last season due to injuries, and played well. If an injury lands him in the right place he could prove a good in season pickup... The big wild card here is Odell Thurman. As a rookie he played outstanding football, made a ton of big plays (5 FF & 5 INT) and was very box score productive. After watching the NFL from his living room last year due to a suspension, Thurman is up for reinstatement. The club plans to give the young man a second chance when/if the NFL elects to do so. He has a lot to prove but if he can return to form, Thurman would easily be one of the Bengals top linebackers. The question is, where would he fit in? He's not SLB material but don't be surprised if the day comes when Thurman lines up at WLB alongside Brooks. Lets just hope it doesn't happen in a penal league.
Defensive Back Just two years ago the Bengals boasted a league leading 31 interceptions but they've finished 24th and 31st in passing yards allowed over the past two seasons respectively. With that in mind the organizations has spent their first round draft pick on the corner position two years in a row. In '05 it was Johnathan Joseph, who was considered an excellent but raw talent by most scouts. He saw a great deal of action as a rookie, gained invaluable experience and gave the coaching staff a lot to be optimistic about. This year the Bengals used the 18th pick on Leon Hall who will eventually pair with Joseph. Hall is much more polished coming out of college and could push for a starting job as a rookie. 34 year old Tory James was sent packing to make room for Joseph and veteran Deltha O'Neal has basically been put on notice that another performance like last season's will not be tolerated. O'Neal led the league with 10 interceptions in '05 but managed just 1 last year in a rather poor overall performance. The club will enter camp with Joseph and O'Neal as starters while Hall will initially handle the nickel duties. It will come as no surprise however, for Hall to win the starting job before the opener. If this happens the rookie corner rule could come into play. The lack of experience could be a problem for the Bengals but the talent is hard to overlook. Even if Hall doesn't start he will be on the field often. Joseph didn't put up big numbers as a rookie but then he wasn't a full time player for the entire season. Both Hall and Joseph are worthy of sleeper consideration for owners who must start corners. One or both of them should prove to be at least fairly productive... Madieu Williams is the top fantasy prospect of this group. As a rookie in '04 he started games at every secondary position, playing the majority of the time at strong safety on the way to a top 10 fantasy ranking. Injury negated his '05 season and a move to free safety dampened his tackle production a little in '06, but Williams still landed in the top 25. He's not going to be an 80 tackle guy but Williams is very capable of 70 solo stops and he's already a proven big play option with 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 2 recoveries, 7 interceptions and 27 passed defended in just 35 career games. He'll make a very solid #3 starter or excellent depth... The Bengals signed Dexter Jackson to help bolster a sagging run defense. When healthy he served his purpose well but in fantasy terms he's basically a tease. The last time Jackson played a full season was '03 when he rode 73 tackles and 6 interceptions to a top 10 finish as a member of the Cardinals. Since that time he's missed 20 of 48 games and done very little. If he could be counted on to play, Jackson would make a solid option. Over the final 5 games of '06 he averaged 5-2 with a sack and a half and an interception. There is good potential here but it comes with plenty of risk. Pick him up late for depth and you won't be hurt... Dynasty owners need to take a look at Marvin White. The 4th round pick will backup Jackson at SS and is likely the future of the position. He's a physical player who will drop the hammer on a ball carrier, is athletic and was productive in college. Tuck him away on a practice squad if you can, or snatch him up the first time Jackson gets a hang nail.
Cleveland Browns Defensive Line Cleveland finished 27th in total defense last season. They struggled at every level so it's no surprise they will have three or four new defensive starters this season. The only surprise is that they didn't do more. The DL basically swapped Alvin McKinley for Robaire Smith. The same Robaire Smith that played end for a Houston club that may well have been the weakest attempt ever made at running a 3-4 scheme. Smith is a serviceable player with experience in the scheme but it's difficult to see him as an upgrade... In '05 Orpheus Roye had his name etched on the wall of fame for those few DL who have ever overcome the 3-4 scheme to be highly fantasy productive. While his 5 sacks were nothing to write home about, Roye somehow managed to rack up 65 solo tackles to lead not only all 3-4 linemen but all linemen in any scheme. This was an impressive feat but one that's highly unlikely to be repeated... Ted Washington is the prototype nose tackle in this scheme. He's a 330 pound road grader who was once among the most feared interior linemen in the game. However, at age 39, he no longer strikes fear into opponents. Washington can still make a pile but he has very little mobility, rarely makes a play outside the tackles and hasn't recorded a sack since '04. The Browns addressed the nose tackle position by adding Shaun Smith via free agency. Smith played in short yardage situations for the Bengals over the past two seasons. He has the size to get the job done and is a solid insurance policy behind Washington. He may even be a serviceable starter at some point but he's not going to make a big impact... We've already covered the effects of the 3-4 on the box scores of the linemen so I won't beat that dead horse again. The bottom line is that you need to look elsewhere for DL help.
Linebacker If anyone is safe in Cleveland it's ILB Andra Davis, who has established himself as the leader and centerpiece of the Browns 3-4. He's a 255 pound run stuffer who anticipates well and is above average in zone coverage despite being relatively slow. He's smart, physical and comes with a nasty streak which all adds up to strong box score production. In '03 Davis totaled 96-40-4 and finished among the top 10 fantasy linebackers. In '05 he went 89-60-2 with a top 12. Both '04 and '06 were injury shortened seasons in which he was on a strong pace before going down. Davis blew out a knee in '04 and sat the final three games of last season with a concussion but he's not Dan Morgan, so don't let the injuries scare you off. He doesn't make a huge number of big plays but Davis is a tackling machine on a bad team. He can be counted on for 90+ solo tackles while providing very good consistency. Pick him up as a strong LB2 in most scoring systems... The Browns used a second round pick on D'Qwell Jackson last year and paired him with Davis on the inside. Jackson's rookie campaign met with mixed reviews. He did an adequate job versus the run and proved to be a dependable tackler but he made absolutely no contribution in the big play department. Not so much as a single fumble forced or pass defended. The coaching staff expects Jackson to step it up in his second season but they may have stumbled on another option if he doesn't. In the 4th round last year Cleveland picked Leon Williams, who was almost an afterthought with Jackson already on board. Williams replaced Davis for the final three games and really turned some heads. In just three starts he totaled 22-9-1 and forced a fumble. Jackson will get every chance but dynasty owners need to keep Williams on the radar and/or the taxi squad. I just have a good feeling about this kid... Any successful 3-4 must have very athletic outside backers who can get after the passer as well as shut of the outside running lanes. To that end the club spent the 13th pick last year on Kamerion Wimbly, who gave them exactly what they were looking for. Wimbley proved to be a solid run defender but made his mark with 11.5 sacks, which was second in the league among rookies. Wimbley was impressive and will get nothing but better. Unfortunately his 44 tackles were not an apparition. Outside backers in these 3-4 schemes often post tackle totals in the 40-50 range. If your scoring heavily favors sack production, Wimbley will have a lot of value but for most of us he barely makes viable depth... Willie McGinest was able to hold down the fort opposite Wimbley last season but he'll turn 36 in December and is in the twilight of his career. He's recorded more than 5.5 sacks only once in the past 5 years. The team picked up Antwan Peek who was cast off by the Texans after he didn't fit into their new 4-3 scheme. Peek wasn't able to become a difference maker in Houston but is young and has experience in the scheme. A change of scenery could make a big difference for him but if Peek never takes over for McGinest, he is at least an upgrade over Matt Stewart who was the top backup on the outside last season.
Defensive Back The Browns pass defense actually finished in the middle of the pack last season but that may be more of a testament to their 29th ranked run defense than to actual success versus the pass. Still it was the secondary that received the majority of the attention over the offseason Gary Baxter and Daylon McCutcheon were both lost to knee injuries in '06. McCutcheon before the season ever started and Baxter in week 3. McCutcheon is no longer with the club while Baxter is fighting his way back from double knee surgery. He's progressing well but there is serious doubt that he will be ready for the beginning of the season and a real chance that he may not play at all in '07. If he does return to the field this year it will likely be in a limited role. This situation left the club in dire straights and forced them to restock the shelves. Leigh Bodden missed 7 games last year while fighting an ankle sprain but is expected to be ready for camp. He's been penciled in as the #1 corner but is he up to that task? Bodden is a solid veteran and a good complimentary corner but he may be overmatched against the leagues top receivers. Add in the fact that he's missed 35 games over his 4 years as a pro, and you get a guy who is a huge risk at best... The Browns spent their second round pick this year on Eric Wright, who is expected to start opposite Bodden. He's fast and athletic but is not a very physical player. Wright wasn't particularly productive at UNLV and has a tendency to miss tackles. The rookie corner rule could certainly apply here but all things considered, it's not easy to get excited about this youngster in fantasy terms. By default he is a sleeper for owners who must start corners... Cleveland supposedly signed veteran journeyman Kenny Wright to compete for the starting job, but it's more likely he'll compete with Daven Holly for the nickel duties. Holly was the team's 7th round pick in '05. He saw a ton of action as an injury replacement last year and tied Sean Jones for the team lead with 5 picks... The real value here comes in the form of SS Sean Jones who had a breakout season in '06. His 71-40 and 5 interceptions landed him firmly in the top 10 of nearly any scoring system. Jones is big, fast, physical and athletic. It took him a couple of seasons to reach a comfort zone in the complex scheme but now that he's arrived, Jones could be another Rodney Harrison. He has that kind of potential and has not yet reached his prime. It would come as no surprise to see Jones finish among the top 5 DBs this season, especially considering the state of the team... The sleeper of this group is FS Brodney Pool. Last season Pool shared the FS position with Brian Russell but received a great deal of his playing time while working in a linebackers role in the nickel package. Productive free safeties in 3-4 schemes are a rarity but there is a chance Pool could buck the trend. It all depends on how he is used. The club added veteran FS Mike Adams via free agency. Maybe Adams will simply provide depth but there is at least some chance that Pool will continue to work at LB in the nickel with Adams seeing time at safety. A full time role with snaps basically at linebacker, could be enough to make Pool a decent option for us. He managed to total 56-13-1 with a handful of impact plays without a full time role last season. It's a situation we will be watching through the preseason.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defensive Line Pittsburgh recorded a respectable 39 sacks in '06, yet they are a perfect example of the fantasy futility a 3-4 scheme creates for defensive linemen. Of those 39 sacks only 11 were credited to the DL. Aaron Smith is an outstanding player who has the distinction of being the only 3-4 lineman to reach the top 30 twice in the past 5 years. His career best of 55 tackles and 7 sacks came back in '02 when he landed in the top 5. Last season Smith squeaked into the top 30 with a mark of 46-17-4. Unfortunately these two examples represent the only times in eight pro seasons that Smith has topped 36 tackles. He could provide serviceable depth in large leagues but don't waste a draft pick. You can always wait and see what kind of year he's having and pluck him off waivers when you see some production... After three years as a backup, Brett Keisel was given an opportunity to replace Kimo von Oelhoffen last season as the Steelers other starting end. He made a very strong showing and considering the restrictions of the scheme, was very productive. With a mark of 38-18-6 Keisel landed in the area of #35. Like Smith, Keisel is a guy that you don't want to spend even a late draft pick on but once the season begins he's a player to keep an eye on. It's never the same guy twice but it seems that every year there are one or two 3-4 guys who manage solid production. Keisel played well last season so his name is in the hat to be one of those guys... Casey Hampton may be the best 3-4 nose tackle in the game at this point. He's made three trips to Hawaii in recent years to prove it. Unfortunately like most linemen in this scheme, the vast contribution that he makes to the success of the team doesn't translate into success in the box scores. Hampton has six pro seasons under his belt but has never turned in more than 27 solo tackles and has just 4 career sacks... The Steelers are masters of developing young players over time. Keisel is a good example of this. When he moved up the team filled his learning shoes with 4th round pick Ryan McBean who will serve as backup and understudy until his turn comes.
Linebacker The key to any successful 3-4 scheme is the play of it's linebackers and particularly it's outside linebackers. Some teams struggle to find the right guys for these positions but the Steelers have become very good at recognizing the skill set in young players and making very good personnel/draft decisions. That ability will be tested again this season. Joey Porter had been a mainstay with the Steelers, averaging nearly 8.5 sacks over his seven years as a starter. Once he jumped ship the club had a big hole to fill. Apparently they weren't completely comfortable with 4th year project James Harrison. Thus the club turned to the draft where they used the 15th overall pick on Lawrence Timmons and a second round pick on Lamarr Woodley. Timmons is expected to step right into the starting role. He's a little raw but there are very few scouts who don't agree that he is an exceptional talent. Timmons displayed his pass rush skills by recording 5 sacks while playing SLB at Florida State last season. In many ways Timmons is a Porter clone. He's a little on the small side but is quick, athletic and tenacious. The Woodley pick seems a bit questionable at a glance. His scouting reports don't exactly say the things you would expect to hear about a guy working on the outside in a 3-4. In fact when he was drafted I initially assumed he would be used at DE. He's not likely to make an immediate impact but may be groomed to eventually replace Clark Haggans who is now 30 years old. Haggans stepped into a starting role three years ago and has been a solid contributor for the Steelers but he's never developed into the dominating player they want/expect at OLB, and he's had trouble staying healthy. Haggans hasn't played a full slate of games in any of the past 5 seasons... Due to the nature of the scheme 3-4 outside backers rarely finish among the top 20 in leagues that don't overvalue sacks. There are usually a few guys who are worthy of backup roles but there is only one Shawne Merriman and he doesn't play in Pittsburgh. Haggans has very little value, while in time, Timmons cold prove to be a decent #3 starter or a quality backup. Don't be one of those owners who takes a guy (in a rookie draft) just because he was drafted early... ILB James Farrior remains the top fantasy prospect among the Steelers linebackers. When talking about on field value he is quietly one of the best in the game, however that doesn't fully translate to the box scores. Since coming to the Steelers in '02 Farrior has reached 80 tackles only twice but over the past three seasons his big play numbers have really come around. He may have just 1 career top 10 finish to his credit but if not for missing a couple of games with injury in '05, Farrior would have 4 consecutive top 20 seasons. He can be counted on as a solid #2 or excellent third starter... Larry Foote provides a good compliment to Farrior. He's a smart, dependable player who knows the system well and understands his role in it. He may some day be the team's "stud" ILB but until/unless his role changes, he will remain of little use to us. In three years as a starter Foote's best production has been 76 tackles, 4 sacks and a fantasy rating in the area of #40. Not surprisingly that came in '05 when Farrior missed some time.
Defensive Back Troy Polamalu has started at SS for the Steelers for three seasons now and if not for an injury last season, would have three top 15 fantasy rankings to his credit. Playing on a good defense holds his tackle numbers somewhat in check but Polamalu is arguably the best big play safety in the game. In three seasons as a starter he's recorded 10 picks, forced 4 fumbles, recovered 2, sacked the quarterback 7 times, defended 35 passes and scored twice. That's a lot of highlight reel material for just 45 games. Polamalu improved his tackle numbers from 66 in '04 to 74 in '05 and was on pace for 72 last season before missing three and a half games with minor injuries. When you consider his consistency, Polamalu's value exceeds his actual production. By this I mean that he may finish around #12, but I would rank him closer to #6 because the guy has produced 5 or more fantasy points in 38 of the 44 games that he's started and finished. That's just plain impressive for a DB... Two years ago the Steelers placed both of their safeties among the top 25 fantasy DBs. Last year Ryan Clark replaced Chris Hope in the lineup but was unable to match his production. Through 13 games Clark was on pace only 60 solo stops. He's a quality veteran player who is probably best suited to play SS. Clark will contend with '05 third round pick Anthony Smith for the starting job at FS but will likely end up serving as the top backup to both positions. Smith played a limited role for much of his rookie season as he learned the Steelers very complex scheme. His playing time increased late in the campaign and he started the final two games in place of an injured Clark. Smith made the best of his opportunity posting 14 tackles, 2 picks and 4 passed defended over the final month of the season. He'll be hard pressed to join Polamalu in the top 20 this year but Smith may bring the big play numbers that the Steelers have been searching for from the FS position, and could be a worthy DB3 or at the least solid depth... Pittsburgh finished securely in the bottom half of the league in pass defense last year and much of the blame was laid squarely on the corners. Ike Taylor in particular, was singled out for his struggles. After a very promising '05 there were grand expectations for Taylor heading to '06. Not only did he fail to live up to them, he was actually benched for a period late in the season after giving up several big plays and generally stinking the place up. He'll enter camp as the starter opposite Deshea Townsend but both of them had better be looking over their shoulders at Bryant McFadden. It was McFadden who replaced Taylor last season. The '05 second round pick has played well when given the opportunity and is pushing hard for a starting job. Chances are he will earn one at some point this season, the only question being who will be bumped. McFadden spent most of the past two seasons working as the nickel corner but still managed to lead all the team's corners with three interceptions in '06. Pittsburgh corners are not traditionally strong fantasy options but it's worth while to mention that Taylor made an appearance in the top 20 in '05 on the strength of 75 tackles and 3 takeaways. One of these guys will likely be productive enough to be a worthy option for owners who must start corners. At this point McFadden seems to be the best bet but it's really too early to call.
Baltimore Ravens Defensive Line With a defense that was at or near the top of every important statistical category last season, it makes perfect sense that the Ravens turned their attention to a needy offense over the offseason Last year's additions of Trevor Pryce at end and Haloti Ngata at tackle solidified a somewhat thin unit. Ngata was the clubs first round pick and provided the wide body space eating road grader that Ray Lewis had been lobbying for. Paired with Kelly Gregg, the addition gave Baltimore arguably the best tandem of interior linemen in the league. The 340+ pound Ngata usually lines up at the nose tackle position where he is double teamed on virtually every running play and most pass plays, thus his numbers will never reflect the contribution he makes to the team. With Ngata sucking up multiple blockers, Gregg often faces single blocking which allows him to use his rare (for a man of 310 pounds) quickness and agility to make a lot of plays between the tackles. For most fantasy owners Gregg will have very limited fantasy value but those in leagues which break out the DL positions will look at him in a completely different light. His career best of 3.5 sacks came last season and is nothing to be excited about but Gregg has the distinction of posting 40 or more solo tackles in 4 of the past 5 seasons, while in '03 he led all defensive linemen with 63... When the Ravens signed Pryce last season there were a lot of people wondering if he had anything left after missing nearly all of '04 with a back injury and recording a career low of 4 sacks in '05. Pryce answered the critics in a big way. All he did was to post the second highest tackle total of his career, equal his career high fantasy finish and fall just .5 short of his career best mark of 13 sacks. The 32 year old looked rejuvenated with his new team and paired with young stud Terrell Suggs to give the Ravens the leagues top pass rushing tandem. The two ends accounted for 22 sacks between them. That's 3 more than the Washington Redskins and just 3 short of the Buccaneers and world champion Colts. Pryce has never been a tackling machine and it's hard to see the Ravens equaling their 60 sack season of '06, but after last year's display there is no reason not to consider Pryce as at least strong depth and very possibly a serviceable DL2. The only real knock on him being a lack of consistency. Suggs on the other hand, has become one of the fantasy game's most dependable DL options. His 9.5 sacks was well short of the league leaders but this guy is one of the elite when it comes to both tackle numbers and consistency. In four pro seasons he's never finished outside the top 20, while in his three seasons as a starter he's never posted fewer than 46 solo stops or finished outside the top 10. Suggs has 39 career sacks with a season low of 8 coming in '05 when the club first moved back to the 4-3 scheme. There are few options at the position who offer more and/or are as dependable... Depth along the DL could once again be a concern for the Ravens. They skimmed through last season remarkably healthy but if they should lose Suggs or Pryce it would be a huge blow. Dwan Edwards is listed as the top backup at DE but he's not even an end. The 315 pounder was a second round pick who never panned out at tackle, has missed 26 of 48 games over his three year career with injuries and has no sacks since joining the team. Justin Bannan is a career backup who spent his first four season with the Bills and has 2.5 career sacks.
Linebacker It would be easy to use a bunch of space talking about all the great things Ray Lewis has done and all the huge fantasy numbers he has put up over the years, but everyone knows about all that. The question now has become, is he worn out physically? There are those who believe he is. No one doubts that the competitive fire still burns white hot in Lewis but it's hard to overlook the fact that he's played just 1 full slate of games in the past five seasons and none since '03. He may not be the dominant fantasy figure that he once was but it's not time to give up on Lewis. In '03 he racked up 121 solo stops and finished at #1 in the LB rankings. In '04 he missed a game but still totaled 101 solo stops and a top 10. '05 was a wash when he missed better than half the season but he came back strong last year when, despite missing a couple of games, he finished at 81-22-5.5 with a rating on the cusp of the top 10. Lewis has a lot of miles on him and comes with some risk but at age 32 he's far from finished and is still very worthy of top 10 consideration if not top 5... Bart Scott's strong showing last year landed him a top 12 ranking but I'm not real comfortable about how he got there. Big play production is a great thing when talking about defensive linemen or even defensive backs, and it certainly is a factor for linebackers as well, but I prefer linebackers that provide consistency, and consistency comes from tackle production. Scott put up a meager 78 solo tackles and 25 assists last season recording 4 or fewer solo stops a whopping 10 times. Every other linebacker in the top 15 totaled at least 84 solos. His 9.5 sacks made up the difference but even there he was streaky and inconsistent. Five of those sacks came in the first three games of the season, after which he went on a seven game drought before getting hot again in weeks 12 through 15. Scott also cashed in 9 passes defended in '06 but can we count on that being the norm or was it an apparition? In '05 he totaled 65-29-4.5 with just 1 pass defended and a ranking in the area of #40. Did he improve that much in one season? The scheme didn't change nor did the personnel to any great extent. Granted it was his second year as a starter and improvement was expected but my fear is that his numbers overshot reality. Weakside linebackers rarely post such lofty sack totals and history tells us that teams who step up like the Ravens did a year ago, often fail to repeat. Baltimore racked up 60 sacks in '06. If they come back to earth with 50 this year it would still be an impressive feat but if the team total drops by 10 how many of those will come from Scott's allotment? I believe Scott is a good player with plenty of potential. I also believe he will be over drafted based on last year's lofty big play numbers. He could very well end up in the top 20 but there are a lot of guys out there who I am more comfortable with, particularly from a consistency perspective... Due to the salary cap Baltimore allowed Adalius Thomas and his 11.5 sacks to take the free agent bus out of town. Jarrett Johnson will step into his Thomas's role but only time will tell if he can fill Thomas's shoes. The Ravens have a history of plugging in virtual unknowns and having them step up. Ed Hartwell, Bart Scott and Dawan Landry are the first few guys who come to mind. Will Jarrett add his name to that list? At 6'3" and 270, his stature is very similar to that of Thomas but that's where the similarities end at this point. Johnson's past production doesn't give us a lot to be optimistic about. In four pro seasons he has just 59 solo tackles and 3 sacks, but then he's been stuck behind some good players and hasn't seen a lot of playing time, so he probably shouldn't be judged by that. The bottom line here is that Thomas was a rare example of a fantasy productive strong side linebacker. The coaching staff took advantage of his abilities to the fullest and provided him a lot of opportunity. Johnson could be productive as well but expecting him to put up Thomas like numbers would be a mistake. Consider Johnson a very risky sleeper at best.
Defensive Back Ed Reed and Dawan Landry have become arguably the leagues premier big play tandem at safety. Unfortunately there are no points awarded for making the Sports Center highlights. Reed is one of those guys who's ranking is usually high at the end of the season. In fact he was the #1 fantasy DB in '04 when he had a hand in an amazing 14 takeaways, defended 17 passes, sacked the QB twice and scored a couple of times. The problem is, in 26 games since that time he's plummeted back to earth in fantasy terms, and has proven very inconsistent. Reed has never reached 65 solo tackles in a season and only managed 51 in '06. Ten times last year he put up 3 or fewer solos. Landry's situation is very similar. As a rookie he stepped right in and proved to be a very good football player. Like Reed, Landry was a major contributor to the success of his team and drew a lot of praise from the media for it. And like Reed, Landry struggled with consistency and tackle production. Eight times in '06 he accounted for 4.5 or fewer fantasy points and 12 times he recorded 3 or fewer tackles. Just be sure you don't make the mistake of selecting either of these players on big name recognition. Being the "old timer" that I am, I call it the Troy Aikman syndrome. Aikman is a Hall of Fame QB but those of us who have been around a while can testify that he was virtually useless as a fantasy player. In the right situation either of these guys could be studs, but playing safety for one of the leagues best defenses is a far cry from being in the right situation. Based on their lofty big play numbers, both Reed and Landry slipped into the top 40 overall last year. However, despite starting all 16 games, the pair combined for only 96 solo stops. In comparison, there were 13 defensive backs who put up 80 by themselves. Consistency is a major factor when it comes to choosing quality IDPs and neither of the Ravens safeties can provide it. As a unit Baltimore was second only to the Dolphins last season when it comes to having the fewest plays run against them. Ravens defenders were 1 of just 4 teams credited with fewer than 700 solo tackles (683) while several teams were in excess of 800. Playing behind an exceptional front 7, there just aren't enough opportunities. The big play potential is sky high so these guys will have more value in scoring systems heavily tainted toward those categories. Simply put, avoid both of them until the late rounds... Owners will likely want to avoid Baltimore corners completely. Chris McAllister has never reached 50 solo tackles, nor has he ever finished among the top 45 defensive backs. The 6 interceptions he tallied last season were probably enough to consider him a backup in corner required leagues but don't overlook the fact that he only posted 7 picks combined over the previous 5 seasons. Samari Rolle had a few more picks over that span but just 5 to show for the past 3 seasons, and his tackle numbers are just as bad. Rolle was 48-4-1 with 3 picks last season and ranked outside the top 80.
Kansas City Chiefs Defensive Line Two years ago Jared Allen was the Chiefs only real pass rush threat. That season he accounted for 11 of the team's mere 28 sacks, while their second leading sacker Eric Hicks, accounted for only 3.5. As a result the Chiefs pass rush finished a dismal 30th in the league. Last offseason the team spent the 20th pick in the draft on Tamba Hali to team with Allen and provide the foundation for the defense. It proved to be a very good decision. Hali didn't exactly explode as a rookie but the youngster earned an every down role before the season opener, then turned in a very solid effort which certainly gave the coaching staff and fantasy owners alike, great reason for optimism. With 44 solo stops, 7.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles Hali managed to overcome his inexperience and finish among the top 15 fantasy linemen. While his rookie stats would make most veterans proud, the scary part is that he's only 23 years old. Just wait until he reaches his prime... In only his third pro season Allen finished as the fantasy game's top defensive lineman. His 66 solo tackles were best in the league at the position and allowed him to provide unrivaled consistency. Only three times on the season did Allen fall short of 5 or more fantasy points. Many owners will devalue Allen too much because of the suspension that was initially 4 games but has been reduced to only 2. Missing a couple of games may keep Allen out of the top 5 this year but it won't stop him from being there for us when we need him, and when he does return to action, he'll have fresh legs and a chip on his shoulder. The Chiefs only improved to 24th in the sack column in '06 but with arguably the best tandem of young ends in the league, the future is clearly very bright... Kansas City addressed the DL again in this year's draft when they selected Turk McBride in round 2 and massive Tank Tyler in round 3. McBride is a versatile lineman who could land at tackle for the long term but could also see a great deal of action as the team's 3rd end, especially in September when Allen is gone. At 275 pounds he's a bit on the lean side for an interior guy and could be asked to add some muscle to his 6'4" frame. He'll need to improve versus the run if he's ever to land an every down job on the inside but McBride is likely to see a lot of action at tackle in passing situations once Allen returns. Those of you who must start interior guys will want to keep an eye on this kid... Tyler is a 323 pounder who was drafted for the single purpose of anchoring the defense versus the run. He won't see action in passing situations and will have very little opportunity to produce in the box scores. The Chiefs needed to address the tackle position because projected starters James Reed and Ron Edwards are basically journeyman types who are only keeping the seat warm until someone can be found or developed to replace them. Many experts however, don't see McBride or especially Tyler, as the solution.
Linebacker The Chiefs linebacker position will have a very different look this season. The only returning starter is Derrick Johnson and even he will be lining up at a different position. Kansas City made a huge mistake when they allowed Donnie Edwards to leave after the '01 season, so when he hit the free agent market this year they were all over him. He's 34 years old and in the twilight of a great career but Edwards isn't ready to be put out to pasture just yet. In fact he's the only player in the league to post 100+ solo tackles in each of the past 5 seasons. The question at this point has nothing to do with his ability, but rather what effect the change of venue will have. After playing on the inside in San Diego, Edwards will return to his roots at WLB. Actually the Chiefs don't play a true strong/weak alignment. They are among the handful of clubs that lineup as right and left outside linebackers. Strong and weak is determined by the offensive formation but right side generally ends up being the weakside about 75% of the time. It's hard to get a fix on what we should expect from Edwards this year. In his last stint at WLB for the Chiefs, Edwards averaged triple digit solo tackles for three consecutive seasons and finished in the top 5 all three times. He's been a serious big play threat over his entire career. In fact his 27 interceptions make him the leagues active leader among linebackers. On the other hand, since the departure of Edwards, Kansas City hasn't given us any top 10 linebackers. Derrick Johnson has worked at right outside linebacker for the past two seasons and has been a marginal starter at best in fantasy terms. But then no one will ever accuse Johnson of being as talented as Edwards. There are some who believe Edwards will slip considerably in his new surroundings. All things considered, I believe he will be hard pressed to equal his previous success but this guy has produced no matter what the circumstance and I can't see that changing now. He's arguably the best cover linebacker in the game and will be on the field for every defensive snap. Top 5 would be a stretch but I will be surprised if he falls out of the top 15... With the return of Edwards, Derrick Johnson has been shifted to the left (usually strong) side. He's a decent player who has not lived up to expectations thus far and will have a very tough time overcoming the restrictions of his new assignment when it comes to box score production. The one thing that might help is that he'll likely team with Edwards in the nickel package. Johnson should beat out newcomer Napoleon Harris for those duties. Harris is a big physical middle backer who excels in run support but leaves plenty to be desired when it comes to cover skills. Early in the offseason there were reports that he would work in an every down capacity but I'll believe that when I see it. Harris was a first round pick of the Raiders in '02 but was a major disappointment. He's never produced more than 75 tackles in a season and it's doubtful that will change now... Keep an eye on Keyaron Fox. He's the top backup at all three positions and was very productive last season when called upon to make a few starts.
Defensive Back After finishing near the bottom of the league in pass defense in '05, the Chiefs made the secondary their main target for improvement heading to last year. The addition of Ty Law went a long way toward that goal and helped the cub improve to the middle of the pack in '06. He teamed with Patrick Surtain to give the Chiefs one of the premier corner tandems in the league. Law has a history of being one of the game's more fantasy productive corners. Like nearly all corners he isn't a model of consistency from week to week, but Law is usually good for around 60 tackles, 5 picks and a final ranking in the top 30. He will provide decent depth in most leagues and is a sure starter for owners who must play corners... Surtain is a very good cover man in NFL terms but he is very much lacking from the fantasy perspective, having reached the 50 tackle mark just once in his career. Granted that came last season when he totaled a respectable 61 but he also posted the lowest interception total of his career in '06 with just 1. Surtain may have a little value as a backup for those in corner required leagues but he's never made the top 50 in most scoring systems... It didn't show up for them in '06 but the Chiefs made a big investment at the safety positions last year as well, when they spent a 2nd round pick on SS Bernard Pollard. Surprisingly it was 7th round pick Jarrad Page who captured more attention in their rookie season. Both players sat behind veterans throughout most of the year as they were groomed to take over this season. Sammy Knight is no longer with the team which opens the door for Pollard at SS, while Page will compete with incumbent Greg Wesley for the FS job. The Chiefs have improved at LB with this year's additions but the their safeties have an established history of being among the fantasy game's most dependable defensive backs. The SS position has been particularly productive. Over the past 4 seasons the position has produced an average of nearly 80 solo tackles with three top 15 and two top 5 ratings. Not to mention the history that comes with Herman Edwards coached teams (I.E.. Kerry Rhodes). At 6'2 and 219, Pollard can provide an intimidating physical presence. He's an unproven Commodity but has all the tools and is in an excellent situation. He'll be available in the late middle rounds of most drafts and is a guy with top 10 potential. You might call Pollard a sleeper but if you're in a league with strong owners, don't wait too long or you might miss out on him... Whoever wins the FS job will have some value as well, though it won't be nearly as much as Pollard. Wesley finished among the top 20 in '05 when he totaled 66 tackles and 6 interceptions. Page is also a big safety and there is some possibility that he could end up at SS. This doesn't seem likely heading into camp but it's certainly a situation worthy of our attention.
Denver Broncos Defensive Line For years the Broncos have gotten along by picking up other team's cast-off linemen and using them as Band-Aids. The trend continued this offseason when the club inked free agent tackles Jimmy Kennedy and Sam Adams, but Denver also invested first day draft picks in the DL for the first time in years. What is particularly strange is that they would put so much emphasis on a unit that was actually pretty solid last year, at least statistically. The two things that generally reflect on the DL is run defense and pass rush. In '06 Denver finished a solid 12th versus the run and the DL accounted for 33 of their 35 sacks. Starting ends Kenard Lang and Ebenezer Ekuban each contributed 7 sacks with then rookie Elvis Dumerville leading the club at 7.5 despite limited playing time. So why spend their first round pick on Jarvis Moss and their second on Tim Crowder? Ekuban and Lang are 31 and 32 years old respectively, which is not exactly over the hill even in football terms. The only thing I can figure is that the old crew doesn't fit the plan of new defensive coordinator Jim Bates and/or they are nearing the end of their contracts. At any rate, what the club has done is to create a huge log jam of players. They will go to camp with a slew of defensive linemen and with 10 guys having a legitimate shot at earning significant playing time. This throws up somewhat of a red flag for fantasy owners but don't be scared off completely, especially if you are in a dynasty league. The tackle position doesn't seem to give us much potential. Gerard Warren hasn't reached 30 tackles since his rookie season in '01 and has just 5.5 sacks to show for two seasons in Denver. Sam Adams is a part time player at this point in his career and will do nothing but rob a few snaps from someone else. Kennedy and McKinley should have some responsibilities but neither of them have ever been impressive and with all the guys they have assembled, it's pretty certain that no one will play full time... There is plenty of uncertainty at defensive end as well, but there is a lot of potential here. Lang had a couple of top 20 finishes before coming to Denver. In '03 and '04 he combined for 96-26-15.5 for the Browns. Ekuban turned in a career best performance last season when he went 48-15-7 and finished among the top 25. The problem is, even though these guys are likely to be the starters, the coaching staff is going to want to get Moss, Crowder and Dumerville on the field. Ekuban is probably the best short term option but dynasty owners will clearly want to look beyond this year. It's very possible that by '08 Ekuban and Lang could be gone setting up a 3 man rotation involving the youngsters. It's also noteworthy that Dumerville will sometimes move inside in passing situations. Though at only 250 pounds, he is no threat of becoming a full time tackle.
Linebacker Much has changed at linebacker in Denver since last year. Al Wilson is gone allowing D.J. Williams to escape from linebacker purgatory at SLB and move back to his natural position in the middle. Warrick Holdman and Eddie Moore were added to compete for the vacant SLB job and D.D. Lewis was signed to provide depth. But the most important change comes at defensive coordinator where Jim Bates scheme could have a big impact. Bates scheme is designed to funnel the ball carrier into the middle and as such the MLB takes on a greater value. For this reason there are a lot of people very high on Williams. I however, am a little more reserved about the whole situation. Williams is a talented player with a great deal of potential and is deserving of the attention he is getting in fantasy circles. He's fast, physical and good in coverage. My reservation stems from factors that are beyond Williams control. Simply put, history stands against him. I've been using defensive players in fantasy football since 1992. In that time I can count on one hand the number of Denver IDPs who have made a fantasy impact. John Mobley had a couple of productive seasons early in his career back in the 90s, Trevor Pryce had a couple of "decent" seasons in the late 90s and Al Wilson had one big year when he put up 99 solo tackles in '02. Mobley is the only Bronco in 15 years to reach 100 solo tackles and they haven't placed a linebacker in the top 20 since Wilson's big year. Even the great strong safety Steve Atwater was never able to make a fantasy impact. The lack of numbers from Denver players has very little to do with the ability of the individuals or even the scheme. It comes directly down to the fact that each team records their own defensive statistics and whomever the Broncos are paying to do that job is just plain stingy. Over the years I have on several occasions watched Denver games and tracked tackles by Wilson, Mobley and/or Ian Gold. They are shorted nearly every time. There was one particular game a couple of year ago in which the opponent ran nearly 50 offensive plays that resulted in tackles being made yet there were only 39 solos credited in the box scores. Al Wilson was a Pro-Bowl caliber player for several years but if you take away the '02 season, his highest career solo tackle total is 79 and he was credited with more than 23 assists only twice in nine seasons. In fact no Denver player has been credited with more than 79 solo tackles since the '02 season. Williams is an excellent player and the adjustments to the scheme favor him to lead the club in tackles but until/unless the organization finds a score keeper who is more generous, I fear he will have a difficult time showing his value in the box scores. I consider Williams a strong sleeper with huge potential but it remains to be seen if he can overcome history... Ian Gold has not been a major fantasy contributor over the years but he hasn't been completely without value. His career high is just 84 solo tackles but he is capable of contributing in the big play columns. Those numbers were down last season for reasons that are not obvious but in '05 he contributed 74 solo tackles, 3 sacks, 4 forced fumbles and a pair of recoveries. Not the kind of numbers you want from a starter but worthy of a backup role in most leagues. Weakside linebackers in Bates schemes have traditionally not excelled in the box scores so Gold has that working against him as well. He might prove worthy as depth in large leagues but shouldn't be considered before the very late rounds... Eddie Moore and Warrick Holdman are the leading contenders for the SLB job. Moore has struggled with health issues while Holdman has just plain struggled. Neither of these players have any value and I have to wonder why the club would use two early draft picks on the DL and leave such a hole at LB? It would come as little surprise to see either D.D. Lewis or Nate Webster eventually get the call here.
Defensive Back Heading to last season a lack of strong tackle numbers had been an issue among Denver defensive backs for a long time. Dating all the way back to include the Steve Atwater era, there have been very few Bronco DBs who have garnered any serious fantasy status. Prior to '06 Eric Brown had been the last to breach the 70 tackle mark way back in '00. Champ Bailey has finally put an end to the drought. In '05 he only totaled 60 tackles but rode 8 interceptions and a whopping 23 passes defended to become the first Denver DB since Brown to crack the top 20. There are plenty of corners who have a big season one year then flop the next but Bailey did just the opposite. For an encore, he racked up career highs in tackles (74) and interceptions (10). He also defended 21 passes and became the first Denver DB to finish in the top 5 since at least 1992. After his big '05 campaign I was reluctant to get on the band wagon but after last season it's hard not to. Corners can be the most inconsistent players in the game not only from week to week but from year to year. There are only a hand full of them who have proven to be quality options on a regular basis. I believe Bailey will be hard pressed to repeat the top 5 finish but he has certainly earned his place among that select few... Bailey wasn't the only Denver corner to breakout in the tackle column last season. Unfortunately after the off-season's most tragic event, Darrent Williams will not be back to defend his top 20 rating. In his place the Broncos will start Dre' Bly who was signed via free agency. Bly is a very good corner who will make an excellent counterpart to Bailey but it's hard to say what kind of numbers we should expect. He's only finished among the top 50 once in his career, that being in '03 when he posted a meager 52 tackles but had a hand in 13 turnovers and scored a couple of times. Playing opposite a star like Bailey should be a big plus but don't count on miracles. For owners who must play corners, Bly should make solid depth at the least and he has some upside but most of us will want to look elsewhere... There was a brief time when I though that SS Nick Ferguson had a shot at being something. It didn't take long however to realize it was a mirage. He did manage a top 40 finish in '05 but flopped last season when his numbers were very mediocre even before missing the final 6 games with injury. Heading to training camp there is a fairly good chance Ferguson could lose his job to third year undrafted free agent Curome Cox. Cox started the final six games last season but never produced more than 3 tackles in any game... FS John Lynch is a great example of how unproductive the Denver safety position is. He's a Pro-Bowl caliber player who has never reached 60 tackles nor posted a top 50 finish since joining the Broncos. To sum it all up, it's Bailey or bust when it comes to Denver's defensive backs.
San Diego Chargers Defensive Line The Chargers have assembled an excellent group of linemen who are all a very good fit in the scheme but like all the other defensive linemen stuck in a 3-4, it will be tough for any of them to sustain serious fantasy value. Luis Castillo is getting a lot of attention after a strong showing last season. He played just 10 games but was on pace to go 44-16-11. Those numbers would have made him a top 15 DL and will have him ranked high on many draft boards this year. Castillo may well be the best 3-4 defensive end in the game today but is he really the next Bruce Smith? Very rarely does a 3-4 end make a serious fantasy splash and even more rarely does it happen two years in a row. We can look back at the past 4 seasons for reference. In '06 there were two 3-4 ends among the top 30 defensive linemen. Ty Warren was #5 and Aaron Smith #30. In '05 there was one with Orpheus Roye finishing at #12. In '04 there were no top 30 3-4 ends. In '03 there were two, Marques Douglas at 19 and Richard Seymour at 20. Notice first of all how few 3-4 ends ever make the top 30, but more importantly, notice how none of them ever repeat. Aaron Smith was the 5th rated DL in '02 but followed it with a 64th finish in '03. You have to go all the way back to Bruce Smith to find a lineman who could sustain production in a 3-4 scheme. Castillo is a very good player who is just entering his prime. If there is anyone in the league who can pull it of, he would be the favorite but the cards are stacked pretty strongly against him. Consider him as depth but let someone else take him early in the draft and count on him as a starter... Jamal Williams is a 348 pound road grader who has reached 40+ tackles in two consecutive seasons. Unfortunately his career best in sacks is only 4 and he has just 2 since '04. Williams is a very good 3-4 nose tackle and could have a little value as depth for owners who must start interior linemen... Igor Olshansky starts at DE opposite Castillo and does a fine job for his team. However, with a career best of only 24 tackles and 3 sacks, he won't do much to help ours.
Linebacker As early as last season it was no secret that the Chargers planned to have new faces at the ILB position in '07. For whatever reason their relationship with Donnie Edwards soured and he skated back to Kansas City as soon as free agency opened. Randall Godfrey was later released making way for youngsters Matt Wilhelm and Stephen Cooper to take over. After being the Chargers 4th round pick in '04, Wilhelm spent three seasons waiting for this opportunity. While he hasn't seen a great deal of action, he is not exactly inexperienced. What is most important is that when given the opportunity, Wilhelm has taken advantage of it. The numbers haven't been big but without a full time role that's to be expected. What matters is that Wilhelm has impressed the coaching staff so much that they are confident in his ability to step into the starting role. Wilhelm is obviously unproven but the situation he now finds himself in is anything but. In 5 seasons with the Chargers Edwards never fell short of 100 solo tackles and never finished worse than 3rd in the final fantasy rankings. The club switched to a 3-4 heading into '04 and over the three seasons since that time the right inside linebacker position (Edwards) has been credited with 319 solo tackles. Granted Edwards is a phenomenal player and I won't begin to claim that Wilhelm is of equal talent. He is however a good linebacker and there can be no argument that the situation he steps into is easily among the most fantasy productive that the game has to offer. There are however, other factors that will come into play. Cooper will take over for Godfrey at left inside. In the Chargers scheme the left inside is generally the less productive of the two positions. This is partially by design of the scheme but was aided over the past three seasons by the fact that Godfrey left the field in most passing situations. It remains to be seen what the Chargers nickel package will look like this year in terms of personnel and that will certainly have a considerable impact in the box score breakdown. Cooper actually saw more playing time last year than did Wilhelm. In week 14 he started against Denver and recorded a very respectable 7-2-1. The bottom line here is that one of these guys is going to be a very productive fantasy option. Wilhelm is getting all the attention and has been a hot commodity in the early fantasy drafts because he is lining up in Edwards position. That said, if you get aced out of Wilhelm in your draft, sit back and wait a few rounds then take Cooper. You may just have the last laugh... The Chargers have confidence in their young starters but they remain unproven. Thus the club spent a 3rd round pick on Anthony Waters to provide depth and serve as an insurance policy. Waters would be a good fit in the scheme and might be worthy of a late round flyer for dynasty owners who can tuck him away on a taxi squad. Keep an eye on his legal issues... In most cases it takes a scoring system that is weighted toward big plays to make quality fantasy options out of 3-4 outside linebackers but Shawne Merriman is the exception to that rule, or at least he was last season. Merriman missed 4 games due to suspension yet with just 12 starts he was able to rack up 16.5 sacks and finish among the top 20 linebackers. His numbers projected over a full schedule would have been an impressive 65-17-22. There is no doubt that Merriman is a great player, a superb athlete and quite possibly the best 3-4 OLB in the game today, but real |