Eyes Of the Guru - Week 13
Posted 11/28 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Washington Redskins
Our thoughts and prayers go out to the family and friends of Sean Taylor after his tragic shooting death this week. It was second year pro Reed Doughty who replaced an injured Taylor in week 12 after career backup Pierson Prioleau had stepped in when Taylor was injured in week 11. Doughty played well and should get the call the rest of the way this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Heading into week 12 the Jaguars gave no notice about who would line up where at the LB positions in the absence of Mike Peterson. Since they had done it in the past it was not a real surprise that they elected to shift Daryl Smith inside and insert Justin Durant at WLB. It was also no surprise that Durant led the club with 9 solo tackles and added a pick in his first career start. He stepped right into a full time role which included lining up with Daryl Smith for most of the nickel snaps. I talked/speculated about Durant last week and will mention again that dynasty owners in particular need to be all over this guy. The team hasn't placed Peterson on IR but chances are they will sit him until the start of the playoffs, thus it's likely Durant will continue in the same role for the remainder of our season. Smith also had a very productive game against Buffalo but I just don't trust him after he flopped horribly in an extended opportunity at MLB last season... After a strong run of games, Sammy Knight has slumped hard in the tackle columns of late. Look for him to rebound this week with an excellent match up against the Colts.
Seattle Seahawks
The Eagles have proven to be an outstanding match up for middle backers this season but be careful starting Lofa Tatupu in week 13. He missed time late in Sunday's game with a rib injury that was bad enough to keep him out when the Rams were threatening on the last series of the game. Keep an eye on the injury reports and be certain to have him in your lineup if he plays. Should Tatupu miss time look for Niko Koutouvides to get the call at MLB with Leroy Hill and Julian Peterson getting the nickel snaps.
St. Louis Rams
The Rams are getting a few inured players back in action but unfortunately James Hall is heading the other way after aggravating his high ankle sprain in week 12. It's not official yet but it seems unlikely that he will suit up this week. With Leonard Little already on IR, the Rams find themselves very thin at the DE position. Victor Adeyanju has been working in Little's place leaving career backup Trevor Johnson as the next option. The club has good depth at tackle so don't be surprised of Adam Carriker gets some snaps at end over the next few weeks... The club also lost WLB Pisa Tinoisamoa for the remainder of the season when he tore his MCL on Sunday. He will likely be placed on IR this week making Chris Draft the starter the rest of the way. This may not be an all bad move for the Rams. Draft is not nearly as fast or athletic as Tinoisamoa but he is bigger and more physical. Characteristics that may actually better fit the Rams defensive scheme. At the very least Draft is likely to be more box score friendly than his predecessor and might prove worthy of consideration in some of the deeper leagues out there... An absence of pass rush from the front 4 has forced the Rams to blitz more often of late. It's also helped them to discover that Will Witherspoon can be quite the playmaker when given the chance. While his tackle numbers have been rather average of late, Witherspoon has a career high 6 sacks on the season with 5 of those coming over the past 4 games. It's a safe bet he will continue to get those opportunities, especially with the injuries to the teams pass rushers.
Green Bay Packers
Free safety Nick Collins has missed the past month with a knee sprain but is expected to return for week 13. That's good news for the Packers who will likely be without backup Aaron Rouse who played very well in place of Collins until suffering a similar injury himself in week 12. Rouse has not practiced early in the week and seems likely to sit at least one game. This might be a good week to plug in Collins if you have him. Free safeties Gibril Wilson and Abram Elam have gone 10-4 and 8-1 respectively versus Dallas in the past 3 weeks... Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila has been on a roll since returning to his role as a rush specialist, but a knee sprain could sideline him this week and possibly beyond. If KGB sits, Cullen Jenkins would assume an every down role and could prove to be very productive. Keep an eye on this situation... If Charles Woodson is able to play in week 13 he could have a huge game as he would likely be matched up against Terrell Owens often. Woodson will see limited work in practice this week while he continues to battle a toe injury. He played through the injury in week 12 and is likely to make a go of it again this week.
Dallas Cowboys
Those owners in corner required leagues might want to see if Anthony Henry is available. Henry has traditionally been one of the games more productive corners and is expected to return this week against a Packers club that loves to throw the ball... Kevin Burnett might also be an excellent sleeper play considering the match up. Burnett has been working mostly in the nickel and dime packages and has seen an increasing role over the past month. He should be on the field often against the Packers who use a ton of 3 and 4 receiver sets. From the dynasty perspective, Burnett has clearly out performed Akin Ayodele this season and is very likely in line for a much bigger role come next season. In fact, he is a great fit in the Wade Phillips 3-4 and it would be little surprise to see him take over as the centerpiece of this defense in '08.
San Francisco 49ers
Injuries at corner are mounting for the Niners who lost nickel corner Shawntae Spencer to a quad injury that could keep him out a while and backup Marcus Hudson to a knee injury that could sideline him the rest of the way. That leaves veteran Donald Strickland and rookie 5th round pick Tarell Brown as the team's 3rd and 4th corners. Don't be surprised if opponents play a lot of 3 WR sets against them and force San Francisco to use the nickel often in order to take advantage of the match ups. That would leave both Derek Smith and Jeff Ulbrich on the sideline often.
Philadelphia Eagles
A couple of weeks back I eluded to the potential production plummet for Trent Cole, so far he's made me look like a prophet. In fact the production from starting ends Cole and Jevon Kearse has slipped so far that Kearse has been benched in favor of Juqua Thomas and Cole is now sharing time with Darren Howard who had been a forgotten man until week 10 when he began seeing the field again. Howard was 2-0-1 against the Patriots while Cole's near goose egg certainly isn't going to help. Don't be surprised if we continue to see a lot more of Howard. Until/unless he proves differently, Cole isn't worthy of consideration at this point regardless of the match up.
Cincinnati Bengals
If you are wondering how Dhani Jones ended up as the Bengals leading tackler in week 12, look no further than the post game injury report. Landon Johnson entered the game with a sore back and then suffered a cut on his arm during the game. As a result, Jones became the team's every down linebacker. He was the only LB on the field for much of the second half when the team was so short at LB that they used a great deal of nickel and dime coverage with SS Dexter Jackson lining up at LB in some situations. Johnson is expected to play in week 13 but don't take any chances with this unit that is obviously cursed.
Tennessee Titans
Keith Bulluck took another huge step down the comeback trail with a season high 11 solo stops against Cincinnati. After being dismal most of the year Bullock now has 22 tackles in the last 3 games and is finally looking like the guy so many of us thought we had drafted. It's not a coincidence that the Titans have struggled in general of late and the defense as a whole has fallen off. We have seen Chris Hope rebound as well, with his resurgence beginning in week 8. This is a trend that is likely to continue if the Titans can't get back on track. Hope's comeback may be put on hold for a while after he left Sunday's game with a concussion after a nasty hit. Calvin Lowery took over for Hope and went on to total a solid 6-1 with a pick. Lowery was the starting FS when the season opened but lost his job. Against the Bengals He was running around like a guy with hot sauce in his jock. Hope is very questionable for week 13 so Lowery may get another shot.
Arizona Cardinals
Adrian Wilson has missed the last couple of games with an injured heel/Achilles that doesn't seem to be improving quickly enough. He is seeking a second medical opinion this week which probably means we won't be seeing him on the field real soon. Oliver Celistine got the call in week 12 and played a very adequate game. He is likely to make a couple more starts... Corner Eric Green suffered a groin injury in Sunday's game that was severe enough to land him on IR. That's good news for owners in corner required league in that the injury will put Antrell Rolle back in starting lineup. Rolle has a history of very solid production (for a corner) and could prove to be a very strong late season addition for some owners.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucks have been very pleasantly surprised with the emergence of undrafted rookie DE Greg White who has outplayed and out produced their heralded first round pick Gaines Adams. Adams and veteran Kevin Carter remain the official starters but White has to have the coaching staff thinking after another very strong outing against Washington. White now has 5.5 sacks on the season with 4.5 of those coming over the past 4 weeks. In the past 2 games alone he has 3 sacks, has forced 4 fumbles and recovered 1. It's going to be very hard for the Bucks to keep this kid in a part time role and he's a player we should strongly consider, especially dynasty owners... Brian Kelly is back in action but Phillip Buchanon hasn't given up the starting job yet. In fact Buchanon is playing the best football of his career. He's been particularly hot with 14 solo stops over the past couple of games and is very worthy of starting consideration this week against the pass heavy Saints.
New York Giants
The Giants didn't just get beat by Minnesota, they got beat up. The most significant injury on defense was to Antonio Pierce who suffered a sprained ankle. Pierce hasn't been ruled out for week 13 yet but we need to keep an eye on the injury reports later this week. If he is unable to go it would be a serious blow to an already weakened LB corps. There would likely be a shuffle at the position with Kawika Mitchell moving to the middle and Gerris Wilkinson starting at WLB. Mitchell is no Antonio Pierce but he is a very serviceable player who could be productive for us should Pierce miss a few games. New York has Chicago, Philly and Washington up on the schedule over the next 3 weeks. Those are all excellent match ups.
Oakland Raiders
Chris Clemons continues to make a huge impact on the Raiders pass rush and like White in Tampa, is making a strong case for a starting job. Clemons has been working as a rush specialist replacing Jay Richardson in those situations, and has 4 sacks in the last 3 games. The only thing holding him back is that he's just 234 pounds which could be a problem against the running game. This is a guy we need to keep on the radar going foreword. He is very reminiscent of the Rams Leonard Little who also made the transition from outside linebacker to DE. Little eventually became one of the leagues better every down ends. Clemons seems to be headed down that same path.
New York Jets
It looks as if Abram Elam will continue to out produce former fantasy stud Kerry Rhodes. There seems to be 2 good reasons for this shift in production. When David Harris burst on the scene the Jets inserted him at the strong ILB position where he is playing in front of Rhodes and is sucking up all the tackles. Then when Elam stepped into the lineup, Rhodes was moved away from the line of scrimmage into a center field role. What it basically comes down to is that Rhodes is lining p at SS but has FS responsibilities while Elam is working closer to the line and has more run support duties. Unfortunately there is no end in sight for this trend so Rhodes owners have some big decisions to make.
That's going to do it for week 13. Best of luck to everyone as you fight for those playoff births here in the last week of our regular season. Just as a reminder, be sure to check back in week 17 when the EOTG takes a look at next season's potential risers.
