Eyes of the Guru - Week 1
Posted 9/5 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Week one is finally upon us and it's time to put all our offseason preparation into action. Preseason work sets the stage for us but there is no mistaking the fact that the first month of the season is critical to our championship aspirations. Most of us have one waiver period before the opener so we have one more chance to tweak our rosters before the bullets start to fly. A lot has happened over the past 4 weeks. Here are the important happenings that have caught my eye.
Buffalo Bills
Over the course of the preseason the Bills kept insisting that there was a competition for the starting MLB job. Sure there was. Second year man John DiGiorgio started the first couple of games. He's an exceptionally smart player who doesn't make mistakes and is a solid backup, but rookie Paul Posluszny showed everyone very clearly that he is the best man for the job. Poz (this guys has to have a nickname) was all over the field during the preseason, making big plays and a ton of tackles. He has officially been named starter heading into week one. Put him in your lineup, there is no reason to take a wait and see stance with this guy... Prior to preseason game 4 there had been a lot of debate about who would be more productive between Keith Ellison and Angelo Crowell. Much of the uncertainty centered around who would stay on the field in the nickel package. Both guys got long looks but the decision was ultimately made for them when Ellison suffered a nasty ankle sprain in the final tune up game. Ellison was last seen on crutches and is likely to miss an extended period of time. This turn of events solidifies Crowell as a 3 down player and boosts his stock significantly. Keep in mind however, that he will line up on the strong side in the base defense. I wouldn't count on him as more than quality depth in most leagues... Keep an eye on Coy Wire who will step in for Ellison at WLB. Wire was a linebacker in college but has spent most of his pro career at SS. He was shifted back to LB last season and will see the most significant role of his career over the next few weeks. Average speed and suspect cover skills kept him from making an impact at safety but as a linebacker he is above average in both areas. Chances are he will just be keeping the seat warm for Ellison but you never know... The Bills have some problems that have left them very thin at the DE position. Ryan Denney suffered a foot injury and Anthony Hargrove is suspended for the first 4 games. The Bills signed free agent Al Wallace to sure up the position but only lasted about 10 days before landing on IR with an injury. This turn of events is going to give Chris Kelsay a golden opportunity. Kelsay has shared time with Denney in recent years and the two have combined for some very solid numbers. Denney hasn't landed on IR yet but he isn't expected back anytime soon and there aren't many free agent options out there. Kelsay is going to get his shot at the full time gig and has the potential to be a 40+ tackle guy with 8-9 sacks. If you find yourself a little thin at the position, he might be a good option.
New England Patriots
The big news out of New England if the 4 game suspension handed down to Rodney Harrison. Harrison is healthy and had been looking very strong as he climbed the rankings over the past month. I don't know that he will ever be the dominating player he was in his prime but his preseason play suggests he will be very productive when he does return. If someone in your league dumps him, be there to scoop him up in a couple of weeks. It could pay off big... Everyone has heard by now that the Patriots are playing Adalius Thomas at ILB. This obviously boosts his value for us but don't over react. During preseason action Thomas was moved all over the place. He worked at both ILB positions, at MLB when the club lined up in a 4-3, as a rush end with his hand down and at OLB in the 3-4. The obvious plan here is to take advantage of Thomas's outstanding skills by keeping offenses guessing where he will be. The problem for us is that it may not provide us the kind of consistent production we are looking for. The other factor here is that Thomas hasn't exactly taken to the role like a fish to water. He's looked slow and indecisive on numerous occasions and is clearly thinking a lot. Thomas is an outstanding player and could make a huge impact once he reaches a comfort zone but it might be a good idea to sit him in week 1 until we can see what kind of production he will give us... The Pats be without Richard Seymour who will start the season on the PUP list. Jarvis Green will step into the lineup. There are few players in the league with Seymour's talent but Green is a very serviceable veteran and New England shouldn't miss a beat.
Cincinnati Bengals
Heading into the preseason the Bengals were really talking up MLB Ahmad Brooks who was supposedly ready to break out. After watching this defense through the preseason, my opinion has certainly changed. It started in week 1 when the shocking truth was revealed that Brooks is not part of the nickel package. Then came the game action where he was washed out way too often and showed little instinct or ability to find the ball. He has looked slow to react, has not been very physical and has over run plays on a consistent basis. Hopefully it's all from inexperience and Brooks will step up once the bullets are real, but being a Bengals season ticket holder, I am far less optimistic than I was a month ago. The coaching staff has experimented with having Brooks put his hand on the ground in passing situations. He actually lined up at tackle in the nickel package a few times. That didn't work very well as he didn't seem to put forth much effort... The Bengals LB situation is still a mess and got even worse with the injury to SLB Rashad Jeanty. After getting a look at the Bengals in action over the first couple of preseason games I/We were telling everyone to grab Landon Johnson because he was working at WLB and pairing with Caleb Miller in the nickel package. With Jeanty not expected back until at least week 5 (after the bye), the club has reshuffled their LB corps yet again. In last year's week 17 EOTG I suggested that Caleb Miller might be a guy worth hanging on to. It hadn't looked that way recently but Miller has now come full circle. With everyone healthy the lineup would be Jeanty at SLB, Brooks in the middle and Johnson at WLB. The nickel package throughout the preseason has been Miller and Johnson. With Jeanty out of action, Johnson slides over to the strong side and Miller becomes an every down player at WLB. He's not a dominating player but has shown a great deal of improvement over the past couple of seasons. At this point he is a candidate to lead the club in tackles. If you already have Johnson you should probably sit tight. If you have room to improve at LB, Miller is probably worth picking up.
Cleveland Browns
Andra Davis has been a very productive option for us over the past few years but he may be nearing the end of that rainbow. He's been banged up often over the past three seasons, missing 7 games over that span, and has sat out nearly all of the preseason with an ankle injury suffered in the first preseason contest. He played long enough in that game however for us to notice his conspicuous absence from the team's nickel package. Initially thinking that this was due to the injury, I ran the tape back and watched from the start. Davis was replaced by Leon Williams on passing downs even before the injury. Dynasty owners in particular should pay close attention to this situation. Davis was inherited from the previous coaching staff and though he is a solid player, he is not a Romeo Crennel guy and is not the fast and athletic type player that Crennel had at the position while at New England. Factor in that Williams was drafted by Crennel and was very impressive last season when he started the final 3 games totaling 22-9-1 with a forced fumble. Williams is working with D'Qwell Jackson in the nickel package and could see his role increase as the season goes on, especially if Davis doesn't get healthy in a hurry... Those of you in leagues that emphasize sack production should keep an eye on Antwan Peek. Peek has been playing in place of Willie McGinest and has really turned some heads. He suffered through 4 season in the tar pit that was the Houston 3-4 but has begun to blossom in his new surroundings. Peek was a tweener coming out of college and has the skills most 3-4 clubs look for in an OLB. He could prove to be the permanent replacement for McGinest who is getting very long in the tooth.
Houston Texans
Injuries at safety prompted the Texans to make a trade on the eve of final cuts. It had been speculated that the Chiefs would send Greg Wesley to Houston but in the end is was Seattle SS Michael Boulware who changed uniforms instead. Boulware was benched by the Seahawks last season for much the same reason that Michael Lewis was ousted in Philly. Like Lewis, Boulware is still a very good football player who simply didn't fit in a defense that was evolving in a different direction. He's a 223 pound former linebacker who is best when lining up in the box. Boulware will replace Glenn Earl who has lined up at SS for the Texans over most of the past three seasons. With Earl at the helm the position has not been particularly productive. Boulware however, is an upgrade in talent. Playing behind DeMeco Ryans is not a positive for Boulware's fantasy value but the Texans defense was on the field for nearly 800 snaps last season. They are still a team in transition and there will be plenty of opportunity for Boulware to step up and prove himself. If you are thin at DB, take a shot on him. It could pay off... The Texans also upgraded the SLB position where Danny Clark has moved past Charlie Anderson. This news doesn't have much fantasy impact at a glance but Clark is a very solid team player and will eat up a lot of blockers in front of Boulware.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts find themselves in a very familiar situation. Corey Simon was released a few weeks back and Anthony McFarland was then lost for the season with a knee injury. That leaves the club with a collection of undersized linemen and leaves a lot of people wondering how they will stop the run. Rookie Quinn Pitcock is the team's only 300 pound defensive lineman and is certain to see an increased workload. There isn't a lot of fantasy impact in this story when it comes to the DL but this turn of events could be an indication of big things to come for the Colts linebackers and defensive backs. Bob Sanders was activated from the PUP list a couple of weeks ago and is expected to play in the opener. Freddie Keiaho has taken over for Cato June and has looked very good during preseason action. If you can get your hands on either of these guys for the right price, do it.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags parted ways with veteran backup Nick Greisen and Clint Ingram is still fighting a sore ankle. Don't be surprised if we see a lot of rookie Justin Durant right from the opening whistle. Mike Peterson's contract is nearing an end and it's been speculated that he may be gone after this season. Durant could be next in line for that job and the coaching staff would love to see him get some experience. It seems likely that he will be a starter at some point this season even if it's not from the start. The only question is where will he line up? He's best suited for the middle or weak side. Peterson is going nowhere but Daryl Smith has spent plenty of time on the strong side. It's a situation to keep an eye on at the least. Dynasty owners may want to tuck Durant away on a taxi squad for safe keeping... The Jags quietly added Sammy Knight back in the middle of August. Knight isn't the fastest of players but the guy is productive wherever he goes and the Jags are very thin at safety. Rookie Reggie Nelson is struggling with an ankle sprain that could be a problem for several weeks. Speculation has Gerald Sensabaugh moving to FS which would probably make Knight the starter at SS. Don't be surprised to see him make a solid box score contribution, especially early in the season.
Denver Broncos
The big news out of Denver is the last minute addition of Simeon Rice. The club lost Ebenezer Ekuban to a knee injury then released veteran Kenard Lang. That left them with Elvis Dumervil, John Engelberger, rookies Tim Crowder and Jarvis Moss. Prior to the addition of Rice, Dumervil and Engelberger were listed as the starters. Dumervil made a huge impression last season and is likely to remain in the lineup while Engelberger is simply not a starter quality player. He may get the call for the opener and possibly a week or two beyond but look for Rice to replace him as soon as he can get into football condition. The combo of Dumervil and Rice would give the Broncos their best pass rushing DE tandem in over a decade. Dumervil's stock has shot up over the past couple of weeks and the addition of Rice doesn't hurt anything. It does however dampen the possibility of first round pick Jarvis Moss securing a significant role in the sort term. If you are in need of help on the DL, Rice or Dumervil should be at or near the top of your list... D.J. Williams is getting his shot at the MLB job this season and there are a ton of fantasy owners with goo-goo eyes over him. I hope you all aren't disappointed. Williams hasn't looked very good thus far. For that matter the entire Denver defense has struggled greatly during the preseason Williams has looked slow and late to react. He hasn't shed blockers well and simply hasn't made many plays. In his defense, this is his first time at MLB since coming to the NFL and he could be a stellar player once he gets comfortable. He seems to have a way to go though.
Oakland Raiders
Oakland threw us a curve when they released 3rd round pick Quentin Moses with their final cuts. It had been speculated that Moses would make a big impact and could replace former first round bust Tyler Brayton. Instead the Raiders have shown Moses the door and have shifted Tommy Kelly to DE. Anyone in need of help on the DL should be all over Kelly. As a rookie in '04 he played in a limited role seeing most of his playing time at end. In 9 games he totaled 4 sacks, forced 3 fumbles and recovered one. In '05 Kelly played mostly at tackle but led the club in sacks. Last season he only accounted for 3 sacks but racked up an impressive 54 solo stops. Kelly is 300 pounds, is tough versus the run, is an above average pass rusher and will be an every down player. He's not likely to reach double digit sacks but 50 tackles and 6-7 sacks are numbers within his reach... The decision to shift Kelly outside was made easy by the emergence of Terdell Sands and the addition of Gerard Warren. Sands saw most of his action on short yardage downs over his first two seasons in Oakland but earned a role in the rotation last season and was impressive. He's a 335 pound road grader type who can be an anchor for the Raiders outstanding run defense. MLB Kirk Morrison will enjoy playing behind this guy... The club recently added Warren who will likely be the backup at both interior positions and should assume Sands place as the third man in the rotation... Everyone was trying to figure out how the addition of Donovin Darius would effect the box score production in the secondary. A lot of people jumped off the Stewart Schweigert band wagon after that signing. Those of us who hung in there are smiling now after Darius was sent packing. I have long contended that he was an over rated player. Lane Kiffin just confirmed it for me.
San Diego Chargers
Matt Wilhelm has been a hot commodity over the past couple of months. Owners grabbed him in drafts with the knowledge that he would be lining up in Donnie Edwards ILB position and the expectation that he would be the most productive of the Chargers inside backers. Having spent the entire preseason on the shelf with a calf injury, Wilhelm has not been able to confirm those expectations. He has however left the door open for Stephen Cooper to step up large. Cooper has been everything the Chargers coaching staff had expected and more. In one contest he recorded 11 solo stops in one half. Granted, Cooper is not playing the position that was most productive under the previous coaching staff but then that was the previous coaching staff. It's hard to say which of the inside positions will be favored going foreword. What we do know for certain is that Cooper has been impressive. Grab him if you can.
New York Giants
By now everyone has heard that Michael Strahan is going to play this season. That's great news for the Giants who were hurting at DE without him. However, don't make the mistake of thinking Strahan is still the 50+ tackle 10+ sack guy that he's been in the past. He's almost 36 years old, has missed 15 games over the past 3 years is coming off a serious foot injury and hasn't taken part in a practice in about 9 months. If he can stay healthy Strahan can still put up good numbers but don't let yourself become dependent on him as one of your starters... When the Giants benched Will Demps I had to wonder if it would last. There were reports that he was close to regaining the starting job but it wasn't to be. Demps suffered a nasty dislocated elbow which eventually landed him on the Giants injured reserve list. That means there is no going back for the club and like it or not, James Butler is their starting strong safety. He hasn't been particularly impressive during preseason action but this is a position that has been very productive in recent years and that alone makes Butler a promising sleeper... When I wrote the preseason edition the Giants were unsettled at the WLB position. Kawika Mitchell earned that job during training camp but he was dinged up in the third week of the preseason There hasn't been a lot of news about the severity of the injury which generally means it's not serious. Giants WLBs haven't been great fantasy options in recent years but Mitchell has the potential to provide us with quality backup numbers if he is healthy.
Philadelphia Eagles
I've mentioned several linebackers prior to this one but if Omar Gaither is available in your league, you need to find some way to get him on your roster. Gaither didn't just earn the starting MLB role, the coaching staff is so confident in him that they released Jeremiah Trotter. This is a position that has been among the most productive in the fantasy game in recent years. Over the last two seasons alone Trotter totaled 190 solo stops, a sack, 4 forced fumbles and 2 interceptions. This from a guy who was basically a 2 down player and a liability in coverage. At worst Gaither should provide us with a quality third starter and he has top 12 potential... Keep an eye on rookie DE Victor Abiamiri. Not only has he looked very good, but Jevon Kearse is nursing a sore knee (surprise surprise) and Jerome McDougle is already on IR.
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee officially announced Ryan Fowler as their starting MLB. This position was fairly productive last season despite neither Peter Sirmon nor Stephen Tulloch seeing many snaps on passing downs. The two starters combined for a mark of 77-48-1 with Fowler kicking in another 20 solos. Factor in a little overlap in playing time between those three guys and you still have a guy who should be decent depth at the least. Fowler has looked pretty good and there is a chance he could eventually replace David Thornton in the nickel package. If that happens, Fowler could make a decent #3 starter. Owners in deep leagues will want to consider this guy if you have room.
Chicago Bears
With rookie Dan Bazuin landing on IR the Bears are probably happy that they were unable to trade Alex Brown. He may have been bumped from the starting lineup but the Bears like to rotate 3 defensive ends on a regular basis. We need to see what kind of role he has. Owners in deep leagues might want to look at him as might dynasty owners. Brown could be a starter somewhere else next season and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see him replace Ogunleye who is getting late in his contract.
Green Bay Packers
Having watched him play while with the Bengals earlier in his career, it was not a real surprise to me that Marquand Manuel was released by the Packers. He's a decent player who doesn't make many mistakes, but he's not a playmaker. What is a surprise is that it was neither Aaron Rouse nor Tyrone Culver who made Manuel expendable. Atari Bigby came from nowhere to claim the starting SS job heading into the season. Bigby was a surprise starter early in the preseason but by the time it was over it was easy to see why the coaches like him. Bigby has been pretty impressive and reminds me of a healthy Bob Sanders at times. The problem is, with a front 7 that includes A.J. Hawk, Nick Barnett and a couple of defensive ends who will snag 45+ tackles, how much opportunity will Bigby have? At the very least he is worthy of a shot for anyone in need at the position or with an empty spot to stash a sleeper.
Carolina Panthers
Speaking of Marquand Manuel, he landed on his feet in Carolina. Manuel can play either safety position and may end up seeing a lot of playing time as the Panthers look for the best available Band-Aid for their problems at safety. Nate Salley was an early favorite for one of the jobs but he hasn't been able to prove himself on the field due to injury. Chris Harris is likely to get the call at SS and Deke Cooper is likely to start the opener at FS. Unless Salley can get healthy quick, Manuel will be in the lineup very soon. He isn't however, likely to have much box score impact... The good news in Carolina is that Dan Morgan made it through about 3-4 quarters of preseason action and still knows his own name. A lot of owners took a late round shot on Morgan. The risk is huge but the gamble could pay off big. The question now is, do you have the guts to put the guy in your lineup every week? When he plays, Morgan is a top 12 type, but keep in mind that he didn't make it out of week 1 last year. Personally I'm playing him unless I have another pretty strong option... Likewise Jon Beason owners need not fear putting him in your lineup. He's taken on Will Witherspoon's old job at WLB. So long as Morgan is healthy he will be the headliner but even with Morgan playing, Beason should make a solid 3rd starter.
Minnesota Vikings
There are a couple of guys we need to watch here this week. Chad Greenway will make his first regular season start and is the odd on favorite to the the Vikings IDP headliner. He was drafted relatively late in nearly all my drafts and I'm sure there will be leagues in which he went undrafted it shouldn't take long to tell where he is... The other guy to check out when the box scores roll in is DE Ray Edwards. This guy has made a strong impression and looks likely to lead Minnesota in sacks this season. That however, may not be saying a lot. Erasmus James is still not 100% and starter Kenechi Udeze hasn't shown us much. It might only take 5-6 sacks to lead this team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Just when it was starting to look like sitting on Barrett Ruud was going to pay off, the Bucks go and sign Jeremiah Trotter. This certainly does nothing for Ruud's stock but don't be too quick to unload him. When Trotter worked out for the Bucks they obviously liked what they saw well enough to take a longer look but there is a reason that Philly advised Trotter to retire before they let him go. There are ton's of examples where long toothed veterans have been brought in for a look but haven't lasted too long. See Donovin Darius. On the other hand, Gruden seems to like having a nasty run stuffing MLB available. If Trotter does stick he would likely be little more than a part time situational player, I.E. a short yardage specialist. He could however, take just enough of a bite out of Ruud's numbers to kill his value, especially if Ruud doesn't see action in the nickel.
Seattle Seahawks
I talked about Darryl Tapp in the preseason report and as expected, he was able to unseat Bryce Fisher for the starting job opposite Kerney. Tapp hasn't exactly lit up the box sores during the preseason but this is an aggressive style of offense that will provide him plenty of opportunity to make an impact. If he has a strong outing against Tampa Bay, don't wait for me to tell you he's for real.
Arizona Cardinals
The release of Buster Davis was certainly a shocker to many of us. I hadn't heard much about him during the preseason which is usually not a good sign. Coaches tell us everyone is great at that time of year but there was no love for Davis. Even more surprising is that three days later, no one has picked him up. That alone speaks a 1000 words about him... After cutting their own 3rd round blunder, Arizona claimed DE Quentin Moses off waivers from Oakland. That move only adds more mud to the water surrounding the Cardinals OLB vacancy. After Chike Okeafor was lost, Calvin Pace and Daryl Blackstock began a time share at the position with neither guy standing out. Moses didn't pan out as a 4-3 end in Oakland so he'll get a look at 3-4 OLB it seems. The one thing that preseason showed us about the Cards is that both Karlos Dansby and Gerald Hayes are going to be on the field in the nickel package. On passing downs Bert Berry putting his hand down at end and the other OLB (be it Blackstock or Pace) is joining him in a 4 man front. A lot of us dropped Hayes down the list when he was paired with Dansby on the inside. It looks like we can move him back up a little.
That's going to do it for the preseason Next time we will have hard numbers and facts to look at. Until then,
Best of luck to you.
