Passing Matchups

Week 19 Rushing Matchups

by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

[DAL] [GB] [IND] [JAX] [NE] [NYG] [SD] [SEA]

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Green Bay Packers Rushing Offense vs Seattle Seahawks Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

Ryan Grant rushed for over 100 yards in every other game he appeared in during 2007, starting in week 8 @ Denver. He posted a strong 6/57/1 in a shortened outing vs. Detroit in week 17 (well on his way to stringing 2 100+ yard games together before sitting on the bench as a precaution before the playoffs). Grant totaled 188/956/8 (an outstanding 5.1 yards-per-carry average) and 30/145/0 receiving in just over 9 games as the Packers' featured back. His backup, Brandon Jackson, closed the regular season with a strong 20/113/0 rushing and 2/22/0 receiving vs. Detroit after Grant took a seat on the bench. The Packers are loaded at RB entering the 2008 playoff run, folks. Their young backs have turned up the heat after an injury-troubled first half of the year.

The Seahawks gave up an average of 102.8 rushing yards per game last year (12th in the NFL), and also coughed up 16 rushing TDs over 16 games - they weren't the best defensive front in the league by a long shot. Washington was limited to 29/75/0 in the wild card round, but lowly Atlanta put up 29/124/1 against Seattle in the regular-season finale. The Seahawks gave up 106 or more rushing yards in each of their final 3 regular season games. They are suspect in this phase of the game, despite their strong game last week vs. Washington.

The Packers backs have home field advantage on their side and a suspect defensive front lining up across the line of scrimmage (and a bye week of rest under Green Bay's belt, to boot). Advantage, Green Bay.

Weather: Lambeau Field expects a high of 26F with a low of 20F on Saturday, with a 20% chance of precipitation (with snow/sleet/ice expected at the end of the work week, but not on Saturday). The early forecast for wind conditions indicates that 8 MPH would be the top air speed - pretty mild for Green Bay Wisconsin in January. With the temperatures below freezing, the ball will be hard and slick (which will affect ball handling and the kicking game), but overall weather shouldn't be a huge factor in this matchup - unless conditions change radically by the weekend (always a possibility at this time of year). Owners of Packers or Seahawks will want to check a shorter-term forecast before setting their playoff-league lineups this week.

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 19 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.

Indianapolis Colts Rushing Offense vs San Diego Chargers Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

When last these teams met, in week 10 of the regular season, neither team had a good outing in terms of offensive production - the 2 QBs combined for 8 interceptions thrown (2 TDs and 6 interceptions were thrown by Peyton Manning, while Philip Rivers had less than 100 net yards passing and 0 TDs with 2 interceptions), while the rushing attacks of each squad gained less than 100 yards apiece. Unsurprisingly, the difference at the buzzer was a missed field goal (by usually-automatic Adam Vinatieri), and San Diego prevailed 23-21.

During the sloppy contest, Joseph Addai managed 22/56/0 rushing with 3/16/0 receiving. Kenton Keith added 4/19/0 rushing to the tally, and managed to find the end zone with 1/7/1 receiving to his credit. Over the course of regular season, Addai gained 261/1072/12 rushing and 41/364/3 receiving to land at #5 among all fantasy RBs in total points, while Keith compiled 121/533/3 rushing and 13/77/1 receiving (#46 among all fantasy RBs). As you can see, Addai usually does much more in a game than he did vs. the Chargers last time around the block.

Speaking of San Diego, they limited Tennessee to 6 points last week, but surrendered 30/119/0 to LenDale White and company on the ground. Prior to that, 29/122/1 was surrendered to Dominic Rhodes in week 17 of regular season. During the whole 16 game slate last year, San Diego averaged 107 rushing yards allowed per game (16th in the NFL) with 11 rushing TDs given up over the season. As you can see, the Chargers have been slightly more generous with yardage of late, but they are still stingy with points.

Addai and Keith struggled to break out against the Chargers in their first meeting (at Qualcomm Stadium), but this time they'll be on their home turf, and have the advantage of a bye-week of rest under their belts. Given what we've seen of the Chargers' rush D of late, this looks like a good, but not great, matchup for the Colts' backs.

Weather: Inside the RCA Dome, weather won't be an issue for either team this week.

New England Patriots Rushing Offense vs Jacksonville Jaguars Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

Laurence Maroney handled the ball a lot during the final 3 weeks of regular season, with varying results (but he did score at least once in each game) - in week 15 vs. the Jets Maroney posted 26/104/1 rushing; he gained 14/156/1 vs. the limping Dolphins' defensive front in week 16; and he finished the year with 19/46/2 on the ground vs. the Giants. When the Patriots aim to throw the ball to a back, they've relied on Kevin Faulk during this season - he caught 8/64/0 (2/-2/0 rushing) vs. the Giants and he caught at least 1 ball in all 16 games during regular season, with 15/107/0 receiving during the final 4 weeks of game play. Together, Maroney and Faulk form a respectable duo of backs to bring to a dust-up.

The Jaguars were 11th in the NFL vs. opposing rushers during 2007, averaging 100.3 yards allowed per game, with 12 rushing scores surrendered during 16 games. They closed the season giving up more than 110 yards rushing in each of their final 3 games, following that up with only 26/43 allotted to Najeh Davenport and the Steelers - but they handed over 2 short TDs during the contest. The Jaguars also have a problem at DT with John Henderson nursing a strained hamstring that sidelined him for most of the wild card contest - losing Henderson would obviously hurt heir defensive front. Stay tuned to see what Henderson's status will be as of Friday's official injury report. LB Mike Peterson was officially ruled out for this game on Tuesday due to his ongoing lack of medical clearance to play (broken right hand).

The Jaguars' defensive front has been adequate but not outstanding most of the year, while Maroney surged in the final quarter of the season after underwhelming us for most of the year. With home field advantage at Maroney and company's back, this looks like a good matchup for the Patriots (especially if John Henderson can't play or is limited in playing time due to his hamstring woes).

Weather: Gillette Stadium expects a high of 42F with a low of 26F on Saturday, with a 10% chance of precipitation and an initial forecast of wind speeds around 7 MPH. That's pretty nice weather given we're talking January in Massachusetts. Game time is set for 8 PM ET, so the temperatures will be sinking towards the cold end of the spectrum by game time - in sub-freezing temperatures, the ball will be hard and slick, impacting ball handling and the kicking game somewhat - but overall it looks like weather won't be a huge issue for either team, assuming conditions don't change between mid-week and kickoff time. Owners of Patriots or Jaguars will want to check a shorter-term forecast before setting a playoff-league lineup.

Dallas Cowboys Rushing Offense vs New York Giants Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

These divisional rivals have played each other twice already this year, with the Cowboys winning hard-fought contests 45-35 during week 1 at Texas Stadium and then 31-20 at Giants Stadium during week 10. New York was within 1 point of the Cowboys at half time back in week 1 (16-17), and tied at 17-17 at the half during week 10, but couldn't keep pace during the second half in either game.

The Cowboy's tandem of Marion Barber and Julius Jones were effective (but not spectacular) in both games vs. the Giants, with Barber posting 11/65/1 rushing and 1/29/0 receiving back in week 1, and 12/34/0 rushing with 3/-1/0 receiving vs. the Giants in week 10. His compatriot, Jones, had 16/66/0 rushing and 1/11/0 receiving in week 1 and 11/48/0 rushing in the second contest vs. the Giants. During the closing weeks of the regular season, both backs were used sparingly except during week 16 vs. Carolina, when Barber posted 22/110/1 rushing and 3/16/0 receiving (Jones added 9/25/0 rushing and 1/2/0 receiving vs. the Panthers). Both players should be well rested and up to 100% after a bye week to complete healing up from the rigors of regular season.

The Giants ended the regular season ranked 8th vs. opposing rushers, averaging 97.7 yards allowed per game, with 12 rushing TDs given up over 16 games. They held Tampa Bay to 69 yards rushing during the wild card round of the playoffs, while only giving up 14 total points. Over the final 3 weeks of the regular season, the Giants surrendered a low of 44 yards rushing to the Patriots in week 17, with a high of 153 yards given up in week 15 (to Washington) - the Giants have yo-yoed in this phase of the game entering the divisional round of the playoffs, as you can see.

Barber and Jones have been effective but not outstanding when playing the Giants this season - and they may come into this contest without their #1 WR threat (which would allow the Giants to bear down on the line of scrimmage more than usual). At mid week, we call this a neutral matchup with neither team enjoying a huge advantage - if Owens is out on Sunday, downgrade this matchup to "tough" for the Cowboys.

Weather: Texas Stadium expects a high of 58F with a low of 38F and a 10% chance of precipitation, with an initial forecast of winds around 12 MPH on Sunday afternoon. In such mild conditions, weather shouldn't make an impact on this contest (unless a storm brews up between mid-week and Sunday).

Jacksonville Jaguars Rushing Offense at New England Patriots Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Jacksonville's rushing attack ground out 29/135/2 vs. the Steelers last week, for a team average of 4.7 yards per carry (but they were helped out by 2 long runs by David Garrard (5/58/0) - however, Fred Taylor (16/48/1 rushing and 1/2/0 receiving) and Maurice Jones-Drew (8/29/1 rushing with 1/43/1 receiving) were limited in terms of their yards per carry (3.0 and 3.6, respectively). It's hard to argue with the 3 TDs scored by the 2 backs, though - Jacksonville won an impressive victory against the Steelers on their home turf last week. Leaving aside the meaningless week 17 game when all the offense's stars rested (including Taylor and Jones-Drew), the Jaguar's backs have scored 7 TDs between the 2 backs (4 for Taylor, 3 for Jones-Drew) in their last 4 games played, and both have found the end-zone at least once in each of the team's last 2 games (that they played in). The Jaguar's two headed backfield is on a roll entering the divisional round of the playoffs, folks.

The Patriots' rush D held 2 of their final 4 opponents to under 91 yards rushing, and gave up over 107 yards rushing twice to close regular season. However, even when the team limited their opposition to under 100 yards rushing, the yards-per-carry average allowed was not impressive - the Giants averaged 4.2 yards per carry in week 17 (19/79/0) and the Jets gained 5.3 yards per tote (17/90/0 - largely due to a 49 yard scamper by Leon Washington). Pittsburgh averaged 5.7 yards per carry in week 14 (32/181/0 - 21/124/0 for Willie Parker, almost 6 yards per carry), and even lowly Miami (with Lorenzo Booker and Jesse Chatman toting the pigskin) gained 4.9 yards per carry, with 22/108/0 - Booker put up 8/56/0 during the contest. Even when the Patriots have forced teams to go away from the rushing attack during the final 1/4 of the season, it has not been because they shut down opposing rushers (except, perhaps, for the Jets), but rather because their offense has put the opposition into catch-up mode. This past season, the Patriots were very tough to score on in the red-zone, though, with just 7 rushing TDs given up over 16 games. When the field is compressed, the defensive line stiffens up quite a bit.

The Jacksonville rushing attack is powerful and multi-faceted, and either back can rip off a long run (or add a lot of yards-after-catch) at any moment during a game. Although the Patriots' rush D is solid at the goal-line, they have been vulnerable to the top backs (and even second-tier guys) during the final 1/4 of the season. In Gillette Stadium, the 12th man helps to bolster New England - but we still see this as a neutral matchup between an elite rushing attack and a good-but-not-overwhelming rush defense.

New York Giants Rushing Offense at Dallas Cowboys Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Brandon Jacobs was injured (knee injury) early in the contest during week 1, and only managed 6/26/0 rushing before exiting the game - Derrick Ward (now on IR due to injury) led the team in rushing with 13/89/0 on the ground, and added 4/27/1 receiving to his effort - Ahmad Bradshaw had no touches during this early contest.

Moving on to week 10, Brandon Jacobs carried the ball 23 times for 95 yards (4.1 yards-per-carry average) and chipped in 1/10/0 receiving to go over 100 yards combined vs. Dallas - Rueben Droughns punched in a TD with 3/8/1 rushing and added 1/5/0 receiving in that game. All told, the Giants posted 22/124/0 rushing during week 1 vs. Dallas, and 27/106/1 in week 10. The Giants have enjoyed solid production from their running game in both contests to date.

Last week, Jacobs and Bradshaw posted 30/100/1 rushing against the hard-nosed Buccaneers' defense, with 17/66/0 to Bradshaw's credit (1/9/0 receiving) and 13/34/1 on the ground for Jacobs (with 2/16/1 through the air). The Giants' stable didn't set the world on fire vs. Tampa last week, but they held their own.

The Cowboys ended the regular season ranked 6th in the NFL vs. opposing rushers, allowing an average of 94.6 yards per game to their opponents (with 12 rushing TDs allowed over 16 games). They closed the regular season with a whimper, opting to rest most of their stars and in consequence, giving up 37/131/2 to the Redskins during the season finale. In fact, the Cowboys gave up 124 or more rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 contests, with a high of 152 yards allowed (week 14) and a low of 69 yards given up (week 16). This unit has been off their usual pace for the entire final 1/4 of the regular season.

Coming off a bye week, the Cowboy's starting lineup will be well rested, and they have home-field advantage at their back. However, given their disappointing results to close regular season, this looks like a fairly even contest to us despite all the advantages Dallas enjoys.

San Diego Chargers Rushing Offense at Indianapolis Colts Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup)

LaDainian Tomlinson was relatively stymied by the Colts for the most part back in week 10, with 21/76/1 rushing (with a long run of 16), and 4/21/0 receiving. Any time a team holds Tomlinson under 100 yards combined, they've done a heck of a defensive job. Last week, Tennessee was able to keep Tomlinson contained until late in the contest, limiting him to 21/42/1 rushing and 3/19/0 receiving - it isn't often you'll see Tomlinson averaging 2.0 yards per carry. Prior to his part-time appearance in week 17, vs. Oakland, Tomlinson had strung together 4 straight 100+ yards rushing games and had scored 2 TDs in 3 of those 4 contests. We'll see if he can get his engine revved back up in the RCA Dome this week.

The Colts averaged 106.9 rushing yards allowed per game this year (15th in the NFL), but only handed over 10 rushing TDs over 16 games - they are pretty tough to score on this season. Even with their defensive stars resting during week 17, Tennessee could only scrape up 39/98/1 against these guys (a 2.5 yards per carry average) - the Colts held 3 of their last 4 regular season opponents to 98 or less yards rushing, with a low of 66 yards allowed (Houston in week 16) and a high of 149 (Oakland during week 15). The Colts' rush defense has dug in deep entering the playoffs - they won't be an easy front line to crack this week at home.

Tomlinson has hit a lull after finishing regular season strongly - and the Colts held him in check the last time these teams clashed. At home in the RCA Dome, we give the home team the a slight nod in this matchup - advantage, Indianapolis.

Weather: Inside the RCA Dome, weather won't be an issue for either team this week.

Seattle Seahawks Rushing Offense at Green Bay Packers Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup)

The Seahawks struggled to rush the ball against the Redskins during the wild card round of the playoffs, with 21/77/1 as a team during the contest - Shaun Alexander gained 45 total yards during the contest (15/46/0 rushing and 2/-1/0 receiving), while Maurice Morris also struggled to find an opening (4/13/0 rushing). FB Leonard Weaver had the day's longest run and the only rushing TD, with 1/17/1 to his credit. Alexander has rushed for less than 50 yards in 3 out of his last 4 games (including the playoff contest); Morris did manage to compile over 100 yards combined against the sad-sack Falcons in week 17 (13/91/1 rushing with 4/18/0 receiving), but other than that contest he has been under 50 yards combined in 3 of his last 4 contests. There just isn't much going on for Seattle in this phase of the game, folks.

The Packers averaged 102.9 rushing yards allowed per game during regular season (13th in the NFL), but led the league with only 6 rushing TDs given up over 16 games. Detroit could only muster 17/48/0 vs. Green Bay in the season finale, although the Packers had given up 139 rushing yards in week 16 vs. Chicago and 173 rushing yards in week 15 vs. St. Louis. Of late, the Packers have yo-yoed up and down in terms of rush defense.

Seattle hasn't been able to do much rushing the football this season (they are tied for 22nd in the NFL with a 3.8 yards per carry average as a team, although Alexander has only eked out 3.5 per rush in his attempts) - meanwhile, the Packers finished the season strongly but looked suspect in the 2 games prior. With home field advantage to back up the rush D, we think the Packers hold an edge over the anemic Seattle unit.