Passing Matchups

Week 18 Rushing Matchups

by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

[JAX] [NYG] [PIT] [SD] [SEA] [TB] [TEN] [WAS]

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rushing Offense vs New York Giants Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

Tampa elected to rest Earnest Graham last week, preferring a committee of Michael Bennett (15/39/0 rushing) and Michael Pittman (4/12/0 rushing) in the meaningless season finale. Prior to the finale, Graham had posted 68/267/4 rushing and 20/133/0 receiving during weeks 13-16, and is clearly the best back available to Tampa Bay entering the playoffs (222/898/10 rushing and 49/324/0 receiving since stepping into the starting lineup). He'll be back in the saddle against the Giants this week.

The Giants were not generous with yardage last week, holding the Patriots to 44 yards on 26 attempts, but they handed over 2 TDs in the red-zone. To date, they've averaged 97.7 rushing yards allowed per game (8th in the NFL) with 12 rushing scores handed over. However, 3 of the Giants' last 4 opponents posted 117 or more rushing yards, with a high of 35/153/2 given up to Washington 3 weeks ago. Entering the playoffs, the defensive front hasn't been very impressive up until the New England contest (and even then they allowed 2 rushing scores). This unit looks pretty average as of today.

Graham has been running strong to finish the regular season, and he'll see some opportunities to do good things with the ball against the faltering Giants' rush D. Advantage, Tampa Bay.

Weather: Nice Florida weather is forecast for the Tampa Bay area on Sunday, with a high in the upper 70's (77F) and a low around 59F, with a 20% chance for rain. It sounds like great weather is on tap for this wild-card matchup.

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 18 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.

Tennessee Titans Rushing Offense at San Diego Chargers Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

Tennessee could only eke out 38/98/1 rushing last week vs. the Colts' second- and third teamers, with 16/45/0 flowing to LenDale White and 7/22/1 apportioned to Chris Brown. White has posted 100+ yard rushing efforts in 2 of his last 4 games (30/113/1 rushing and 2/24/0 during week 14 vs. San Diego, and 23/103/0 rushing vs. the Jets in week 16). Brown has scored 1 TD in each of the last 2 games, with 5/15/1 vs. the Jets in week 16, and also notched 1 TD in 4 of his last 5 contests, including posting 5/16/1 rushing and 2/11/0 receiving vs. the Chargers in week 14. Together, the two running backs constitute a solid rushing attack for the Titans.

The Chargers enter the playoffs ranked 16th in the NFL allowing an average of 107 rushing yards per game, with 11 rushing TDs handed over in 16 contests. They've given up 122 or more rushing yards in 2 of their last 4 games, with a high of 131 net yards handed over in week 14 and a low of 26 yards allowed during week 15. Last week, the Raiders managed 29/122/1 rushing vs. San Diego.

Tennessee has a solid tandem between White and Brown, while the Chargers have been playing down to their mediocre season average of late - advantage, Tennessee.

Weather: Qualcomm Stadium expects a high of 55F with a low of 47F on Sunday, with a 60% chance of rain forecast. If the rain comes down in sheets at game time, footing and ball-handling will be larger issues than usual for both the Titans and the Chargers.

Washington Redskins Rushing Offense at Seattle Seahawks Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

Clinton Portis has been a man on a mission during the final 1/4 of the season, with over 100 yards combined in each of the last 4 games (25/104/2 rushing and 4/27/0 receiving vs. Dallas last week). Some games, he's been more effective as a receiver (17/36/0 rushing and 6/86/0 receiving vs. Chicago in week 14, for example), but he's taking care of business each week whether he carries the ball or catches it on the move out of the backfield. Last week, backup Ladell Betts added 10/29/0 rushing against the Cowboys to help boost Washington to 37/131/2 during the contest.

The Seahawks' rush D is nothing to write home about this year, ranking 12th in the NFL averaging 102.8 yards given up per game, but with a generous 16 rushing TDs handed over in 16 games. 6 of their last 7 opponents have gone over 105 yards rushing vs. Seattle, with 29/124/1 allowed to the sad-sack Falcons' stable last week. The Seahawks' defensive front is suspect entering the playoffs, folks.

This is a good matchup for the visiting Redskins.

Weather: Qwest Field is in for a soggy day on Saturday, with a forecast 45F for a high and 38F for a low, with a 70% chance for rain. If the rain comes down in buckets at game time, footing and ball handling will be tougher than usual for both teams. Also, wind can be a problem in this venue, throwing a wrench in the passing and kicking games. Weather looks like a larger than usual factor in this matchup.

Jacksonville Jaguars Rushing Offense at Pittsburgh Steelers Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Prior to their game off during week 17, Fred Taylor (64/494/3 rushing and 2/24/0 receiving from week 13-16) and Maurice Jones-Drew (44/189/2 rushing and 14/152/0 receiving weeks 13-16) were on a bigtime roll. Taylor had 5 100+ yards rushing performances in a row from week 12-16, with 1 rushing TD in 4 of those 5 games. Jones-Drew posted 99 yards combined vs. Pittsburgh in week 15 (12/69/0 rushing and 5/30/0 receiving), and followed that up with 140 yards combined and a TD rushing vs. Oakland (10/44/1 rushing and 6/96/0 receiving). In the course of the team's 29-22 victory over Pittsburgh, the Jaguars rushed for 42/224/1 (a 5.3 yards-per-carry average), led by Taylor's 25/147/1 on the ground. That week 14 game was played in Heinz Field, just like this wild-card round matchup will be on Saturday.

The Steelers sport the league's 3rd ranked rushing defense, averaging 89.9 yards allowed per game, with only 6 TDs surrendered all year long. But, as noted above, the Jaguars blew through this group recently - the Steelers have given up 180 or more rushing yards in 2 of their last 4 games, with 40/180/2 given up to the Baltimore Ravens' backup running backs last week (Willis McGahee was out due to broken ribs). Of late, this unit has not been playing up to it's usual level.

The Jaguars torched the Steelers 3 weeks ago, and last week the team stumbled again. With playoff intensity at a fever pitch, it's hard to see Pittsburgh giving away 200+ rushing yards this week - but they have looked vulnerable in this phase of the game of late. From where we sit, this looks like a neutral matchup between a great rushing attack and a solid rushing defense (who also enjoy home-field advantage this week).

Weather: The forecast for Heinz Field calls for a high of 41F and a low of 38F on Saturday, with a 20% chance for precipitation. As this game is to be played at night, temperatures will be on the lower end of the spectrum - but 38F is pretty mild for this venue during January. As long as the forecast holds up, weather shouldn't be a big issue for either the Steelers or the Jaguars.

New York Giants Rushing Offense at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Brandon Jacobs did a solid job against the Patriots last Saturday, with 15/67/0 rushing (a 4.5 yards per carry average) and 5/44/1 receiving to his credit. He's gone over 100 yards combined in each of his final 3 games this season, with 25/130/0 rushing and 3/30/0 receiving vs. Washington, 25/143/2 rushing and 1/6/0 receiving vs. Buffalo and last week's solid performance. The team hopes that Ahmad Bradshaw (17/151/1 rushing vs. Buffalo) can overcome his sore calf (he was inactive last week) and be ready to go for this playoff contest, giving the Giants a solid plan B on Sunday.

The Buccaneers rank 17th in the NFL vs. opposing rushers this year, with an average of 107.9 yards allowed per game and a total of 11 TDs given up during regular season. Last week, against the Buc's second and third teamers, the Panthers gained 37/180/2 on the ground - but the first team had allowed only 1 team to go over 100 yards in the weeks 13-16, with a total of 358 rushing yards allowed during that span (89.5 rushing yards allowed per game during those weeks). When fielding their top squad, the Buccaneers sport a powerful rush D that improved significantly during the final weeks of 2007.

Jacobs and company have been very good of late, but they face a pretty tough challenge in Raymond James Stadium this week. We're calling this one neutral.

Pittsburgh Steelers Rushing Offense vs Jacksonville Jaguars Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Najeh Davenport really struggled in his second week as the Steelers' featured back, with a paltry 12/27/1 to his credit vs. the limp Baltimore defensive front. Frankly, the jury is still out on whether he can be a competent replacement for Willie Parker (out for the season due to a broken leg). Davenport shone against the Rams in week 16 (24/123/1 rushing and 2/44/1 receiving), but stunk up the joint last week. Jacksonville held him to 1/-4/0 rushing and 2/6/0 receiving when these teams last met in week 15, an ominous portent for this week's wild-card playoff game.

The Jaguars gave up 334 yards rushing from weeks 13-16 (83.5 per contest) and have averaged 100.3 rushing yards allowed per game this season, with 12 rushing TDs given up to date. With mostly second-teamers in the game vs. Houston, the Jags did allow 34/170/3 to Ron Dayne, Darius Walker and company - but they were resting a bunch of playmakers. Week 17 is not indicative of how well this unit played in the closing weeks of regular season.

Davenport and the Steelers will have a tough time moving the ball against the Jaguars this week - advantage, Jacksonville.

San Diego Chargers Rushing Offense vs Tennessee Titans Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup)

On Sunday, LaDainian Tomlinson won the 2007 league rushing title with 315/1474/15 rushing (and 60/475/3 receiving). Tomlinson also became the first player since Barry Sanders' 1994 campaign to finish a season with more than 300 touches and no fumbles. "That's something I take a lot of pride in," said Tomlinson (he had 375 touches this year, the same number of touches as Sanders in '94). "Now that it's over, I'm happy I did that. I'm really proud of that."

For the last 2 weeks, Tomlinson has seen only part-time duty in order to preserve him for the playoffs, which are now here. From week 13-16 he rushed for over 100 yards per game, with 7 total TDs (6 rushing, 1 receiving), while adding 16/56/0 rushing and 1/7/1 receiving vs. Oakland in a shortened appearance. Against Tennessee during week 14, Tomlinson gained 26/146/1 (a 5.6 yards-per-carry average) and 5/27/1 receiving. Look for Tomlinson to be back to his top form for the playoffs.

The Titans have really clamped down on opposing rushers in the last 3 weeks, with only 10/46/0 allowed to Joseph Addai (and his backups) last week, and a total of 203 rushing yards allowed during the 3 week span (67.6 rushing yards allowed per game on average). It looks like the defensive front is back to top form, although Albert Haynesworth did tweak his sore hamstring last week which might limit him somewhat this weekend.

Tomlinson is one of the leagues' all-time greats at RB, and he didn't have much trouble with Tennessee last time around - nevertheless, he'll have his hands full trying to find holes while facing the stout Tennessee defensive front in the fever pitch of intensity that the playoffs bring. Keep an eye on Haynesworth as his presence (or lack of it) completely changes this defense.

Seattle Seahawks Rushing Offense vs Washington Redskins Rushing Defense (Bad Matchup)

Seattle's stable of backs ground out 31/167/2 vs. the hapless Falcons last week, led by Maurice Morris' 13/91/1 rushing (4/18/0 receiving), while Shaun Alexander added 8/31/1 in an abbreviated appearance. Over the past 4 weeks, Morris has seen 16-17 touches in 3 of 4 games, with fairly mediocre results (45/182/1 rushing and 12/74/0 receiving), while Alexander has posted 38/159/1 rushing and 2/20/1 receiving during that span of time. That's a pretty blah level of output for the Seattle tandem heading into the playoffs, folks.

The Redskins have been playing inspired rush D of late, with only a single yard rushing allowed to the Cowboys last week (16/1/0) and 87 or less yards allowed in 3 of their last 4 games, with a high of 139 given up to the Giants in week 15 (28/139/0), but not a TD. To date, they are the 4th-best rush D in the NFL with an average of 91.3 rushing yards and only 10 rushing TDs given up over 16 games.

Seattle's rushing attack has faded badly during the closing weeks of 2007, while the Redskins' rushing D has become a wet blanket to close the season. The Seahawks are a proud team and big players like Shaun Alexander are supposed to come up big in big games, but this is looking like a bad matchup on paper.