Rushing Matchups

Week 21 Passing Matchups

by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

[NE] [NYG]

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

New England Patriots Passing Offense vs New York Giants Passing Defense (Good Matchup)

After dispatching the Jaguars in the divisional round - Tom Brady torched the Jaguars for an incredible 26/28 for 262 yards, 3 TDs and 0 interceptions during the contest (a 92.9% completion rate) - the Patriots' offense proceeded to throw down for a less impressive 22/33 for 198 net passing yards, with 2 TDs scored (but 3 interceptions thrown against the ball-hawking Chargers). The AFC Championship game marked only the second time this season that Brady threw for more interceptions than touchdowns, and also was only the third time he threw more than 1 interception in a game over the 18 games the Patriots have contested to date. Wes Welker (7/56/1) and Jabar Gaffney (1/12/1) scored the TDs while RB Kevin Faulk led the team in receiving (8/82/0) - Randy Moss was held to a mere 1/18/0 by the Chargers' outstanding secondary. In the end, the Patriots prevailed by limiting the Chargers to 4 field goals (while they scored 3 TDs total in the game). Considering that Brady has been able to throw more TDs than interceptions in 88.8% of his games this year (16 of 18), we don't see his atypical game vs. San Diego as the start of a downwards trend.

Remember, Brady had little trouble tearing up the Giants' secondary in week 17 of the regular season, with 32/42 for 346 net passing yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions (he was sacked just once during the game). Wes Welker (11/122/0) and Randy Moss (6/100/2) both snatched triple-digit totals in yardage during the game.

A lot of attention has been paid to Brady's tender right ankle during the bye week (he was spotted with a walking boot on the ankle and did not practice during the 3 sessions held last week). On Sunday, Brady commented "I'm not concerned about how it's going to affect my play. This won't keep me out." He did practice with the team on Monday with heavy taping on the joint and a slight limp evident as he took part in all phases of the workout. "Everybody practiced," coach Bill Belichick said after the session. "The injury report will be out Wednesday." Obviously, the Patriots' fans and Brady owners will want to check the late-week injury reports for Brady's status and level of practice participation. He is the motor that powers the New England offense this year.

Turning to the Giants' pass defense, the unit is led by New York's league-leading, sack-happy defensive front (53 sacks during regular season). New York was 11th in the NFL last year, averaging 207.3 net pass yards allowed per game - but they did allow 24 passing TDs over 16 games. During the wild-card round of the playoffs, Jeff Garcia was consistently pressured throughout the game, ending up with 23/39 for 202 net yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions to his credit when the dust settled. The pass rushers got into Tony Romo's face during the second half of the game in the divisional round of the playoffs, hurrying him into poorly timed/aimed throws that ultimately allowed New York to prevail 21-17. When it was all said and done, Romo tallied 18/36 for 182 net yards, 1 TD and 1 interception during the game, while taking 2 sacks. Most recently, Brett Favre and the Packers managed 19/35 for 236 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions in the NFC Championship game (Favre was not sacked during the game). Over the 3 playoff games, the Giants have averaged 206.6 net pass yards allowed per game (right on their season pace), with 5 TDs given up and 5 interceptions generated (the pass rush notched a total of 3 sacks). They are an above-average pass defense, but not an elite unit - and it showed back in week 17 when this team last faced off against the Patriots.

Assuming that Brady's ankle doesn't flare up between now and Sunday's Super Bowl, we give the edge to the Patriots in this matchup.

Weather: The weather forecast for University of Phoenix Stadium calls for a high of 64F and a low of 40F with a 30% chance for rain on Sunday. If the weather turns stormy close to game time, the retractable roof will be closed - weather shouldn't be an issue during this Super Bowl matchup.

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 21 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.

New York Giants Passing Offense at New England Patriots Passing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Plaxico Burress has boldly predicted that the Giants will triumph over the Patriots 23-17, and has "guaranteed" a New York victory. On Tuesday (media day), he stated "Let me say it again. The goal is to win the football game. It's not to come here and stand in front of you guys and act like we're going to go out here and lose the game. The goal is to win. That's the only reason why we're here, to win."

Now will come the hard part - actually delivering on his prediction. Burress comes into the Super Bowl hot, after racking up 11/154/0 against the Packers (following two forgettable showings in the wild card (4/38/0) and divisional (1/5/0) rounds). He rang up 2 receiving TDs vs. the Patriots during their week 17 showdown with New York - can he deliver an encore performance in the Super Bowl?...stay tuned.

Eli Manning has been playing outstanding football during the playoffs, with 4 TDs and 0 interceptions thrown to date (53/85 for 599 yards, 4 TDs and 0 interceptions during that time span, a 62.4% completion rate). During the NFC Championship he tossed 21/40 for 251 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions in frigid Lambeau Field. Besides Burress' big game, Amani Toomer (4/42/0), Steve Smith (2/25/0) and Kevin Boss (1/12/0) all helped keep the chains moving. Manning threw for 4 TDs twice during regular season - one of the games he did so was in week 17, when he faced the Patriots' secondary (see below).

New England was tied for 6th in the NFL with 19 interceptions last season, and were 2nd in the NFL with 47 sacks to their credit - against the Jaguars in the divisional round of the playoffs, the Patriots added 1 interception and 1 sack to their totals against David Garrard, while allowing 22/33 for 270 yards passing and 2 TDs. They followed up with 2 interceptions of and one sack on San Diego's Philip Rivers, holding him to 19/37 for 207 net yards, and 0 TDs. During regular season, the Patriots averaged 190.1 net pass yards allowed per contest (6th in the NFL), but did give up 23 passing TDs. Only 1 of their final 4 opponents during regular season got over 168 yards passing - that was their opponent in the upcoming Super Bowl. Manning threw for 237 net yards and 4 TDs (vs. 1 interception) vs. the Patriots during their week 17 shootout - the Patriots managed 1 sack of Manning during the game.

Manning and Burress got back into rhythm against the Packers, and they were a force against the Patriots the last time these teams faced off. During their playoff games, New England pass defense has played below expectations vs. Jacksonville and then up to their usual standard (but the Chargers were banged up for the AFC Championship and didn't have their top game on tap). Given the results the first time around the block, and the fact that this game is going down in a neutral venue, this looks like a pretty even matchup to us, with neither team holding a huge edge over the other.