Rushing Matchups

Week 20 Passing Matchups

by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

[GB] [NE] [NYG] [SD]

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Green Bay Packers Passing Offense vs New York Giants Passing Defense (Good Matchup)

Brett Favre led his young team past the Seahawks 42-20 last week despite spotting Seattle a 14 point lead early in the first quarter (thanks to two Ryan Grant fumbles on succeeding possessions to start the period). Greg Jennings continued his high-scoring 07-08 campaign (he's caught 14 TDs including the playoffs at this point) by adding 6/71/2 to his totals, while James Jones (3/42/0) and Donald Driver (3/18/0) kept the chains moving. RB Brandon Jackson added the third receiving TD of the day with 1/13/1 (Favre threw for 18/23 for 173 yards, 3 TDs and 0 interceptions on a blustery, snowy day last week). In all, seven Packers caught passes as the team scored 6 straight TDs to overwhelm the Seahawks. The Packers' offense is on a big-time roll coming into the NFC championship game. Back in week 2, Favre had no problems picking apart the Giants, with 29/38 for 286 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception to his credit - the Giants could only muster 1 sack that day as Michael Strahan was still getting into game-shape after his training camp holdout (he had a mere 1 solo tackle during the game).

Speaking of the Giants' defense, New York was 11th in the NFL last year, averaging 207.3 net pass yards allowed per game - but they did allow 24 passing TDs over 16 games. During the wild-card round of the playoffs, Jeff Garcia was harried and hit often (he ended up with 23/39 for 202 net yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions) by the Giants' league-leading, sack-happy defensive front (53 sacks during regular season). The Giants' defense really got into Tony Romo's face during the second half of the game last week as well, hurrying him into poorly timed/aimed throws that ultimately allowed New York to prevail 21-17 (Romo tallied 18/36 for 182 net yards, 1 TD and 1 interception during the game, while taking 2 sacks). Green Bay was tied for 3rd-best pass blocking OL last season, though, with only 19 sacks allowed over 16 games. Seattle's pass rush (also among the league's best last year) could only manage 1 sack on Favre last week. The Giants have a great group of pass rushing defensive linemen and linebackers, but Green Bay's offense hasn't been very vulnerable to that type of pressure this year.

Favre has a large variety of quality targets to choose from, an outstanding offensive line (and the entire team is remarkably healthy entering this game, with no injury worries to speak of on either side of the ball) - meanwhile, the Giants come into this game off a huge upset of their divisional rivals and will be cranked up for this championship contest. The Lambeau mystique looked back in force last week after a rocky start - we give the crafty veteran Favre and his team a slight edge over the road-warrior Giants this week.

Weather: The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for arctic temperatures � 8F for a high on Sunday, and 2F for a low, with a 10% chance for precipitation. In weather that cold, the football will be hard and slick, making all phases of the game trickier than usual due to ball handling concerns. Hands and feet will be chilled quickly in such conditions, adding to the difficulties caused by the slick balls and possibly treacherous footing (if there are patches of ice/snow stuck to the turf). Wind chill could add to the problem, as this game starts in the evening (6:30 PM ET) � when the sun goes down the temperature will plummet quickly, and the wind may kick up. Also, as we saw last week, sleet/snow is always a possibility in this venue.

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 20 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.

New England Patriots Passing Offense vs San Diego Chargers Passing Defense (Good Matchup)

As we noted last week, Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and company have sliced, diced and julienned almost every secondary they have faced this year. Jacksonville was no exception last week, as Tom Brady surgically carved up the Jaguars for an incredible 26/28 for 262 yards, 3 TDs and 0 interceptions last week - TE Ben Watson was the hero of the moment, with 2/12/2 during the game, while the other TD flowed to Welker (9/54/1). Donte Stallworth led the team with 3/68/0 receiving, while Moss was blanketed with coverage all day and wound up with just 1/14/0. In all, 8 receivers snagged Brady's near-perfect effort (92.9% completion rate, with a 141.4 QB rating). The Patriots remain on their juggernaut pace in the passing game entering the AFC Championship.

The Chargers were 1st in the NFL with 30 interceptions this season, and racked up 42 sacks (5th in the NFL). In the first round vs. Tennessee, the Chargers posted 3 sacks and 1 interception while holding Vince Young to 129 net yards passing (16/29 for 129 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception). Last week, vs. Peyton Manning and the pass-happy Colts, San Diego handed over 33/48 for 402 yards and 3 TDs - but they notched 2 crucial interceptions on tipped balls that shut down potential scoring drives for Indianapolis. The Chargers ended the regular season averaging 213.3 net pass yards allowed per game, with 20 passing TDs given up - however, only 1 of their final 4 opponents during regular season got over 200 yards passing (302 allowed to Detroit in week 15 - but Detroit lost 51-14). This is an aggressive, ball-hawking pass defense - and they showed they can survive an aerial blitz last week. Manning came out of the gates very hot (14 straight completions) but was slowed by the relentless Chargers' pass rush later in the game (despite the fact they never sacked Manning during the contest last week, the Chargers were in his face a lot during the second half).

Way back in week 2, the Patriots defeated San Diego 38-14 in Gillette Stadium - Brady tossed 25/31 for 279 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception in that game - and New England enjoys home-field advantage again in this contest as well. We'll see if the Chargers can make adjustments to their game plan in light of past experience - but given the superior pass blocking of the Patriots (only 21 sacks allowed during regular season, and only 1 given up to Jacksonville last week) and their other-worldly quarterback, we give the Patriots an edge in this contest. The Bolts are a solid unit, but handling the Patriots this year is a task nobody has been up to so far.

Weather: The forecast for Gilette Stadium calls for a frigid 24F for a high on Sunday, and 7F for a low, with a 10% chance for precipitation. In weather that cold, the football will be hard and slick, making all phases of the game trickier than usual due to ball handling concerns. Hands and feet will be chilled quickly in such conditions, adding to the difficulties caused by the slick balls and possibly treacherous footing (if there are patches of ice/snow stuck to the turf).

New York Giants Passing Offense at Green Bay Packers Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Eli Manning has been outstanding since the week 17 contest with New England - over his past 3 games, Manning has tossed 8 TDs (a minimum of 2 per game) and 1 interception, with 0 interceptions during the playoffs. Last week against the Cowboys (who had seen and beaten Manning twice this year already), he completed 12/18 for 163 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions, for a season-high QB rating of 132.4 (he's been over 117 in QB rating the last 3 weeks). Amani Toomer was the big man on the offense last week with 4/80/2, and Steve Smith started to live up to his potential with 4/48/0 - TE Kevin Boss (1/19/0) and Plaxico Burress (1/5/0) both posted quiet games against Dallas. Coming into the championship game, Manning is playing the most consistently solid football that we've seen from him to date during 2007-08. He's on a different level than early last year (for example, week 2, when he battled through a bruised shoulder to throw for 16/29 for 211 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception in the regular-season loss to Green Bay).

The Packers were 12th in the league during the regular season averaging 210.4 net pass yards allowed per game, with 23 passing TDs given up vs. 19 interceptions generated (tied for 6th in the NFL) and 36 sacks to their credit (tied for 13th in the NFL). Last week, Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks could only come up with 19/33 for 172 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions. That was similar to the games we saw the Packers' D play over the final 4 games of regular season, when Green Bay gave up over 200 yards passing only once, in the season finale vs. Detroit (246 net yards allowed) - but the Pack didn't play their starting roster for much of the contest. During the 3 weeks prior, the Packers gave up a high of 191 net passing yards in week 15 vs. St. Louis, and a low of 101 net passing yards in week 16 vs. Chicago. They were stubborn to end regular season, and they were very hard on Hasselbeck and company to open the playoffs (Green Bay sacked Hasselbeck twice last week, and contained his playmaker, D.J. Hackett, to 2/15/0 with a long reception of 8 yards).

Manning has found his rhythm just in time for the playoffs, but playing against the Packers in front of a frenzied Lambeau Field crammed with green-and-gold is always a challenge. The 12th man will back up the Packers' stingy pass D this week - this looks like a tough matchup for Manning and company from where we sit.

San Diego Chargers Passing Offense at New England Patriots Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Philip Rivers played well in the wild card round of the playoffs, throwing 19/30 for 292 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception to lead his team to a 17-6 victory over Tennessee. He followed that performance up with a very strong game against the Colts, tossing 14/19 for 264 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception before taking a seat on the bench due to a right knee injury (he's vowed to return for the AFC Championship game, stating "I'm going to do all I can do to be ready [for New England]. At this point, that's all I can tell you."). In both contests, Antonio Gates (2/28/0 last week) has been limited by his dislocated and sprained left big toe - Vincent Jackson has stepped in to become the #1 target on the team during Gates' problem, with 7/93/1 receiving to lead the team vs. the Colts (and 5/114/1 vs. the Titans 2 weeks ago). Chris Chambers scored against Indy (3/67/1) and Darren Sproles provided a nifty 1/56/1 scoring catch while helping carry the load for the injured LaDainian Tomlinson. The Chargers' backup QB, Billy Volek, sealed the win for San Diego last week with a TD plunge (3/-1/1 rushing) and 3/4 for 48 yards passing in relief of Rivers. Keep your eyes on the practice reports later this week and the official Friday injury report to get a read on Rivers' progress getting his knees healthy again.

New England was tied for 6th in the NFL with 19 interceptions last season, and were 2nd in the NFL with 47 sacks to their credit - the Chargers' OL was among the best in the NFL, though, with only 24 sacks given up all year. Last week, against the Jaguars, the Patriots added 1 interception and 1 sack to their totals against a very game David Garrard, while allowing 22/33 for 270 yards passing and 2 TDs. During regular season, the Patriots averaged 190.1 net pass yards allowed per contest (6th in the NFL), but did give up 23 passing TDs. Only 1 of their final 4 opponents got over 168 yards passing - Eli Manning managed 237 net yards and 4 TDs (vs. 1 interception) vs. the Patriots during their week 17 shootout. The Patriots' secondary continued to be generous with yardage last week - they enter this game off their usual pace. The last time New England faced Rivers, back in week 2, he managed 19/30 for 149 net yards passing, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions in the course of a 38-14 result in favor of the Patriots (the Patriots sacked Rivers 3 times during the game, by the way).

The Chargers made good things happen despite doing without top play makers last week - this week, though, they have a daunting task awaiting them in Gillette Stadium. Advantage, New England.