Rushing Matchups

Week 19 Passing Matchups

by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

[DAL] [GB] [IND] [JAX] [NE] [NYG] [SD] [SEA]

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Dallas Cowboys Passing Offense vs New York Giants Passing Defense (Good Matchup)

These divisional rivals have played each other twice already this year, with the Cowboys winning hard-fought contests 45-35 during week 1 at Texas Stadium and then 31-20 at Giants Stadium during week 10. New York was within 1 point of the Cowboys at half time back in week 1 (16-17), and tied at 17-17 at the half during week 10, but couldn't keep pace during the second half in either game.

The big question mark for Dallas entering this game is the status of Terrell Owens' high ankle sprain - will he be able to play for Dallas during the playoffs or not? Cowboys' owner Jerry Jones commented on Terrell Owens' status for the playoffs on a Friday radio show on KTCK saying the following: "I like where he is. Our trainers are really satisfied with the progress he is making. He's got his (protective walking) boot off. And there is no detectable swelling or relatively little. When you compare that and the nature of his injury with the rehab of other players in similar situations, then we ought to be optimistic." Owens will be working with the trainers doing all he can to be ready. He obviously has a history of returning for games and playing injured as he did in the Super Bowl with Philadelphia. Still though, there is a lot of uncertainty right now. "I don't know, and I don't even know if doctors and trainers know," Jerry Jones said. "I don't know if anybody knows." Terry Glenn reported no ill effects from returning to game play during week 17, but we really haven't seen nearly enough of him to know if Glenn is back to full speed or not - he was targeted once during the season finale but didn't come up with a reception during his cameo appearance.

With Owens in the lineup, Tony Romo has owned the Giants' secondary this year, throwing 15/24 for 345 yards, 4 TDs and 1 interception in week 1 (6/116/1 receiving to Jason Witten, with 3/87/2 flowing to Terrell Owens - Sam Hurd caught the other score with 1/51/1 that day). In week 10, Romo nailed 20/28 for 247 yards, 4 TDs and 1 interception (6/125/2 to Owens, 5/66/1 to Patrick Crayton, and 1/15/1 to TE Tony Curtis during that contest). All that adds up to 35/52 for 592 yards, 8 TDs and 2 interceptions thrown by Romo against the Giants this year. He has been sacked by them only 3 times in 2 games, despite New York's league-leading 53 sacks during regular season.

Speaking of New York's sack totals, they added 1 sack to the tally against the Buccaneers last week, but spent a good part of the day hurrying and hitting Jeff Garcia as the Giants brought intense pressure to bear against the Bucs' QB during the wild card round. They ended the regular season averaging 207.3 net pass yards allowed per game (11th in the NFL), but did allow 24 passing TDs over 16 games - Garcia threw 1 TD vs. 2 interceptions last week, though (23/39 for 202 net yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions). The Giants closed the regular season allowing under 165 net passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games (before running into the Tom Brady/Randy Moss/Wes Welker buzz saw in week 17, when they gave up 32/42 for 346 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions).

The Giants have had fits handling Dallas with Terrell Owens on the field - if he is available on Sunday, this looks like a good matchup for the Cowboys. If Owens is in street clothes, this becomes a much closer contest - downgrade the matchup to "neutral" if T.O. can't go.

Weather: Texas Stadium expects a high of 58F with a low of 38F and a 10% chance of precipitation, with an initial forecast of winds around 12 MPH on Sunday afternoon. In such mild conditions, weather shouldn't make an impact on this contest (unless a storm brews up between mid-week and Sunday).

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 19 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.

Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense vs San Diego Chargers Passing Defense (Good Matchup)

When last these teams met, in week 10 of the regular season, neither team had a good outing in terms of offensive production - the 2 QBs combined for 8 interceptions thrown (2 TDs and 6 interceptions were thrown by Peyton Manning, while Philip Rivers had less than 100 net yards passing and 0 TDs with 2 interceptions), while the rushing attacks of each squad gained less than 100 yards apiece. Unsurprisingly, the difference at the buzzer was a missed field goal (by usually-automatic Adam Vinatieri), and San Diego prevailed 23-21.

Peyton Manning finished the regular season with 337/515 for 4040 yards, 31 TDs and 14 interceptions - which means he threw just under half of his season's total of interceptions vs. the Chargers in week 10 (34/56 for 328 yards, 2 TDs and 6 interceptions). He closed the regular season with 1 interception thrown in the final 4 games, vs. 8 TDs tossed. We're not betting on Manning repeating his worst game of the season during the playoffs (he didn't throw for more than 1 interception in any other game of the regular season, as a matter of fact).

One question for the Colts entering this contest is the status of Marvin Harrison - his somewhat mysterious knee injury caused the team to scratch him from action week 17 when the trainers had been expecting Harrison to play for at least part of the game. Considering that Harrison was out of action since week 7 of the regular season, though, the Colts have a solid plan "B" in place if he can't play. Reggie Wayne was the 4th best fantasy WR in the land this year, with 104/1510/10 to his credit; Anthony Gonzalez came on strong in the 2nd half and ended up with 37/576/3 in his rookie campaign; and Dallas Clark was a TD machine with 58/616/11 by season's end. The Colts don't lack for fire power, friends.

The Chargers were 1st in the NFL with 30 interceptions last season, and racked up 42 sacks (5th in the NFL). Indianapolis protects Manning well most of the time, though, with only 23 sacks allowed (6th-least in the NFL last year). Last week, vs. Tennessee, the Chargers posted 3 sacks and 1 interception while holding Vince Young to 129 net yards passing (16/29 for 129 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception). The Chargers ended regular season averaging 213.3 net pass yards allowed per game, with 20 passing TDs given up - however, only 1 of their final 4 opponents during regular season got over 200 yards passing (302 allowed to Detroit in week 15 - but Detroit lost 51-14). This is an aggressive, ball-hawking pass defense, folks.

The Colts field an elite offense, while the Chargers have a dangerous defense that has a gambling, attacking style. At home in the RCA Dome, we think the Colts have a slight edge on the Chargers, but it isn't going to be a gimme this week for Manning and company.

Weather: Inside the RCA Dome, weather won't be an issue for either team this week.

New England Patriots Passing Offense vs Jacksonville Jaguars Passing Defense (Good Matchup)

Just look at the numbers. Tom Brady, 398/578 for 4806 yards, 50 TDs and 8 interceptions; Randy Moss 98/1493/23 receiving; Wes Welker 112/1175/8 receiving; Donte Stallworth 46/697/3 - all 3 receivers were among the top 50 fantasy WRs, Moss was #1 overall with Welker at #11. Brady set the all-time passing TD record, Moss set the all-time receiving record, and Brady is the league MVP. This is the most lethal passing attack in NFL history, according to the record books (and according to almost everyone who has watched this unit slice, dice and julienne almost every pass D they've faced to date).

The Jaguars ran in the middle of the NFL pack last season, allowing an average of 213.5 net pass yards per game (15th in the NFL), with 20 passing TDs given up in 16 games. However, they also generated 20 interceptions this season (4th-most in the NFL)and were tied for 9th in the NFL with 37 sacks. The Jags gave up 120 net passing yards or less in each of their final 4 regular season games this year, by the way. Last week, the Jaguars intercepted Ben Roethlisberger 3 times, with Rashean Mathis returning one for a 63 yard TD, and they sacked Roethlisberger 6 times. It's clear that the Jaguars are at a fever pitch of intensity, despite surrendering 297 net passing yards and 2 TDs in the course of the game. The hamstring injury that knocked John Henderson out of the contest early on last week didn't hamper the defense from getting after Pittsburgh in a big way - but it would still be a blow to the unit if he can't go again this week.

Brady shelters behind the 5th-best pass-blocking OL in the league (only 21 sacks given up all year), but he'll see pressure coming his way from the Jaguars this week. Given the outstanding cast of receivers that Brady has at his disposal, and home field advantage, we think this looks like a good, but not outstanding, matchup for the Patriots.

Weather: Gillette Stadium expects a high of 42F with a low of 26F on Saturday, with a 10% chance of precipitation and an initial forecast of wind speeds around 7 MPH. That's pretty nice weather given we're talking January in Massachusetts. Game time is set for 8 PM ET, so the temperatures will be sinking towards the cold end of the spectrum by game time - in sub-freezing temperatures, the ball will be hard and slick, impacting ball handling and the kicking game somewhat - but overall it looks like weather won't be a huge issue for either team, assuming conditions don't change between mid-week and kickoff time. Owners of Patriots or Jaguars will want to check a shorter-term forecast before setting a playoff-league lineup.

Green Bay Packers Passing Offense vs Seattle Seahawks Passing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Brett Favre charged back to the top of the NFL quarter-backing heap this year, with 356/535 for 4157 yards, 28 TDs and 15 interceptions to his credit, while bringing along maturing Greg Jennings (53/920/12) and Donald Lee (48/575/6) to the top 12 at their respective positions (total fantasy points). Donald Driver also caught plenty of balls (82/1048/2) and led the team in receptions, and James Jones (47/676/2) proved a capable #3 WR. With veterans Bubba Franks and Koren Robinson in reserve, the Packers enter the playoffs loaded at WR and TE with a nice mix of veteran savvy and youthful explosiveness. Favre was 9/11 for 99 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions in a shortened start vs. Detroit during the season finale. The Packers' passing attack is firing on all cylinders entering the playoffs, folks.

The Seahawks sport the league's 19th ranked pass D in terms of average yards allowed per game (219.1), but they gave up only 15 pass TDs this season vs. 20 interceptions generated (tied for 4th most in the NFL). Last week, CB Marcus Trufant and SS Jordan Babineaux both returned interceptions for long TDs (78 yards and 57 yards, respectively) to put the wild card playoff game on ice - Todd Collins ended up with 29/50 for 266 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions. With former Packers' head coach Mike Holmgren to tutor the Seattle secondary entering this game, Favre will need to be extra careful with the ball this week. Seattle was 4th in the NFL with 45 sacks this past season, while the Packers surrendered only 19 sacks (3rd-least in the NFL). Favre should be able to find some time behind his solid OL during the game, but look for the Seahawks to try and bust through the dike on several occasions.

The Packers enjoy home field advantage this week, but the Seahawks bring a solid secondary to this dance and will make things difficult for the Packers' aerial attack - this looks like an even matchup between elite units from where we sit.

Weather: Lambeau Field expects a high of 26F with a low of 20F on Saturday, with a 20% chance of precipitation (with snow/sleet/ice expected at the end of the work week, but not on Saturday). The early forecast for wind conditions indicates that 8 MPH would be the top air speed - pretty mild for Green Bay Wisconsin in January. With the temperatures below freezing, the ball will be hard and slick (which will affect ball handling and the kicking game), but overall weather shouldn't be a huge factor in this matchup - unless conditions change radically by the weekend (always a possibility at this time of year). Owners of Packers or Seahawks will want to check a shorter-term forecast before setting their playoff-league lineups this week.

New York Giants Passing Offense at Dallas Cowboys Passing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

During the week 1 shoot-out, Eli Manning was a gun-slinging signal caller firing off 28/41 for 312 yards, 4 TDs and 1 interception (Plaxico Burress snagged 8/144/3 during the contest, while Amani Toomer was second in receiving with 9/91/0 - Brandon Jacobs caught the other TD, with 2/16/1 to his credit).

In week 10, Manning fared worse, with 23/34 for 236 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions (he was sacked 5 times during that contest, compared to absorbing only 1 sack in the first contest). Even more troubling for Giants' fans is the fact that Manning's only TD pass on the day went to Jeremy Shockey (12/129/1). Given that Shockey is on IR now, either Burress (4/24/0) or Toomer (3/37/0) will need to elevate their game to take up the slack that Shockey left behind when he went down to injury (broken leg). Toomer led the team last week, with 7/74/1, while Burress (4/38/0) and Kevin Boss, Shockey's replacement at TE, hauled in 2/14/0 to chip in around the edges. Manning tossed 20/27 for 185 yards, 2 TDs and - interceptions during the wild card round of the playoffs. He has thrown 42/59 for 436 yards, 6 TDs and 1 interception over the last 2 games - Manning is on a hot streak entering this game, folks, even without his favorite TE in the lineup.

The Cowboys were ranked 13th in the NFL among pass defenses after 16 games, averaging 213.1 passing yards allowed per game, with 19 pass TDs surrendered over 16 games. They were tied for 6th in the NFL with 19 interceptions this past year, and 3rd in the NFL with 46 sacks (the Giants are in the middle of the NFL with 28 sacks given up over 16 regular season games). During the final 4 games of the 2007 season, Dallas gave up 223 or more passing yards twice, and 181 or less passing yards twice, with a high of 238 net yards surrendered (week 14) and a low of 147 (week 16). They averaged 197.25 net yards given up over those 4 weeks, a stronger showing than their season average would indicate.

Manning is on a hot streak, while Dallas fields a decent but not elite pass defense. With home field advantage at the Cowboy's backs and given Manning's up-and-down track record against Dallas this year, we're calling this a neutral matchup, with neither team enjoying a clear edge before the fact.

Seattle Seahawks Passing Offense at Green Bay Packers Passing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Matt Hasselbeck was able to generate enough offense through the air (20/32 for 229 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions) to put his team in a position to triumph, but he didn't have his best game of the season against the Redskins. His compatriots on defense bailed the Seahawks out in the final quarter with 2 interception returns for TDs to put the game on ice. Deion Branch's sore calf kept him out of the wild card game (he reportedly lobbied to play, but the coaches decided to play it safe with him), so D.J. Hackett (6/101/1), Nate Burleson (6/64/0) and Bobby Engram (4/57/0) carried the load. Hackett has posted 3 100+ yard receiving performances in 6 games played this year, and looked back to full speed in the wild card round. We'll see if Branch can give the Seahawks their full arsenal for the divisional round as the late-week practice reports and the Friday injury report unfold. On Tuesday, coach Holmgren stated "I think Branch is going to be able to practice some [this week]. His quickness and his hands, he's an excellent receiver. He's our starting flanker. So when he comes back, you get a real high-caliber player back in your lineup." Stay tuned. No matter who has been in the lineup catching his throws, Hasselbeck has been a strong QB week in and week out, with 352/562 for 3966 yards, 28 TDs and 12 interceptions over the 16 game regular season, good for 6th-best fantasy QB in the land last year.

The Packers were 12th in the league during regular season averaging 210.4 net pass yards allowed per game, with 23 passing TDs given up vs. 19 interceptions generated (tied for 6th in the NFL) and 36 sacks to their credit (tied for 13th in the NFL). The Seahawks were in the middle of the NFL range of 16-55 sacks allowed with 36 surrendered over 16 games. The Redskins notched only 1 sack last week. Over the final 4 games of regular season, the Packers gave up over 200 yards passing only once, in the season finale vs. Detroit (246 net yards allowed) - but the Pack didn't play their starting roster for much of the game. During the 3 weeks prior, the Packers gave up a high of 191 net passing yards in week 15 vs. St. Louis, and a low of 101 net passing yards in week 16 vs. Chicago.

Green Bay has been playing fairly stout pass defense of late, while the Seahawks rely heavily on Hasselbeck's arm (but he didn't shine brightly in the wild card round). At Lambeau Field, the 12th man will be a big factor in favor of the Packers - we think that Seattle comes into this one about even with Green Bay, on balance.

Jacksonville Jaguars Passing Offense at New England Patriots Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

David Garrard made few plays with his throwing arm (9/21 for 140 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions) but also ran the ball at crucial junctures last week (5/58/0) to lead his team past Pittsburgh in a squeaker (31-29). Other than the long tip-toe down the sideline by Maurice Jones-Drew (1/43/1 receiving last week), Jaguar receivers were held out of the end zone. Ernest Wilford (2/39/0), Reggie Williams (2/23/0), and Marcedes Lewis (2/16/0) scooped up the most receptions during the game - but there wasn't a lot of fireworks from this unit last week as you can see. Last week marked the first contest in which Garrard has thrown more interceptions than TDs - he's had at least 1 pick thrown in each of his last 3 games, by the way. We'll see if he can get back to protecting the ball better this week - the Patriots will take advantage of any errant throws, more likely than not.

Speaking of the Patriots, they were tied for 6th in the NFL with 19 interceptions last season, and 2nd in the NFL with 47 sacks to their credit. The Jaguars were in the middle of the NFL with 31 sacks surrendered through 16 games, and they gave up 4 sacks to the Steelers last week - look for the Patriots to pin their ears back and get after Garrard early and often this week. During regular season, the Patriots averaged 190.1 net pass yards allowed per contest (6th in the NFL), but did give up 23 passing TDs. Only 1 of their final 4 opponents got over 168 yards passing, though - Eli Manning managed 237 net yards and 4 TDs (vs. 1 interception) vs. the Patriots during their week 17 shootout.

Garrard protected the ball well for the majority of the year, but has been more vulnerable of late in the interception department. Given so-so pass blocking and the home field advantage that the Patriots enjoy, this looks like a tough matchup for Jacksonville's signal caller.

San Diego Chargers Passing Offense at Indianapolis Colts Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Philip Rivers showed us the merits of his arm against the Titans (who largely shut down the Chargers' rushing attack last week, holding LaDainian Tomlinson and company to 32/68/1), throwing 19/30 for 292 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception to lead his team to a 17-6 victory. Chris Chambers (6/121/0) and Vincent Jackson (5/114/1) got the lions' share of catches last week (Tomlinson was 3rd on the team with 3/19/0). Rivers closed regular season going 3 straight contests without an interception, hitting 44/69 for 466 yards, 4 TDs and 0 interceptions. He elevated his game last week, and looks very simpatico with Chambers and Jackson entering this game - which is a good thing, as all-world TE Antonio Gates suffered a sprained and dislocated left big toe last week and is looking very iffy to play in this contest as of midweek. "I don't know how long it's going to be," Chargers' GM A.J. Smith said on Monday. "Any time that a star player is away from you, obviously it hurts you." The team is keeping Gates on the active roster hoping he can play in later rounds (assuming the Chargers advance this week).

The Colts ranked 2nd in the NFL at the close of regular season vs. opposing passers, holding the opposition to an average of 172.8 net yards per game, with 16 pass TDs allowed in 16 games, vs. 22 interceptions (tied for 2nd in the NFL). However, they managed just 28 sacks last year (tied for 26th in the NFL with the lowly Browns' defense) - the Chargers yielded just 24 sacks last year (7th-least in the NFL). During the final 4 games of regular season, Indy gave up over 200 yards passing twice and under 150 yards passing twice, with a high of 258 surrendered in week 17 vs. the Titans (with only a partial squad of defenders in action), and a low of 104 net passing yards given up in week 15 vs. Oakland. On balance, the Colts' pass defense is among the league's elite units, despite their relatively low number of sacks.

Rivers really struggled with the Colts in week 10 (13/24 for a net of 86 yards passing, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions) - and that was on his home turf. This week, in the RCA Dome and likely without his star TE, Rivers is in for a tough matchup. Advantage, Indianapolis.

Weather: Inside the RCA Dome, weather won't be an issue for either team this week.