Rushing Matchups

Week 18 Passing Matchups

by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

[JAX] [NYG] [PIT] [SD] [SEA] [TB] [TEN] [WAS]

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Jacksonville Jaguars Passing Offense at Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Defense (Good Matchup)

David Garrard finished the regular season with the second-lowest interception percentage for any quarterback in NFL history with 300-plus attempts at 0.92 (3 interceptions in 325 attempts). He's made coach Jack Del Rio look pretty smart for dumping Byron Leftwich just before the season started. This year, Garrard has thrown 208/325 for 2509 yards, 18 TDs and 3 interceptions (a 102.2 QB rating). He had his way with the Steelers in week 15 (in a game also played at Heinz Field), with 17/33 for 197 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception. Dennis Northcutt (4/81/1), Ernest Wilford (2/22/1) and Reggie Williams (1/3/1) caught TDs during the contest. Garrard has thrown for 2 or more TDs in 4 straight games and 5 of his last 6 contests. He finished regular season in style.

The Steelers boast the league's 3rd-ranked pass D, averaging 176.5 net yards allowed per game, with 22 TDs given up to date. However, they are tied for last in the NFL with 11 interceptions to date, in contrast to their 13th ranking in QB sacks (36 to date). Jacksonville is in the middle of the NFL with 31 sacks allowed so far. Over the last 4 weeks, the Steelers have bounced around in this phase of the game, with a high of 399 net pass yards allowed in week 14 (32/46 for 399 yards, 4 TDs and 0 interceptions given up to Tom Brady and company), and a low of 154 net yards given up to Troy Smith and the Ravens in week 17 (16/27 for 154 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions). This unit has not been as strong as their season average would indicate of late.

Jacksonville didn't have much trouble moving the ball on the Steelers the last time these teams met, and he should be able to do some good things against this fading unit on Sunday. Given the power-outage displayed by Pittsburgh of late, we're calling this just barely a good matchup despite the home-field advantage that the Steelers will enjoy on Saturday night.

Weather: The forecast for Heinz Field calls for a high of 41F and a low of 38F on Saturday, with a 20% chance for precipitation. As this game is to be played at night, temperatures will be on the lower end of the spectrum - but 38F is pretty mild for this venue during January. As long as the forecast holds up, weather shouldn't be a big issue for either the Steelers or the Jaguars.

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 18 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.

Seattle Seahawks Passing Offense vs Washington Redskins Passing Defense (Good Matchup)

Matt Hasselbeck had thrown for 86/135 for 932 yards, 9 TDs and 3 interceptions during weeks 13-16 entering the contest vs. Atlanta last week. He played for only a half last week, managing 15/25 for 147 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions while spreading the ball around among his wide receivers. Deion Branch sat out last week's contest due to a sore ankle, but the team got D.J. Hackett back in the mix (4/41/0) just in time to tune up for the playoffs. Nate Burleson (7/119/2) and Bobby Engram (4/65/1) led the team in receiving - the Seahawks have a plethora of worthy targets with Burleson, Engram, Branch, Hackett and TE Marcus Pollard all very capable of making big plays. This unit is the heart-and-soul of the Seahawks entering the playoffs.

Washington crushed the Cowboys 27-6 to punch their ticket to the playoffs last week, limiting Tony Romo and Brad Johnson to 14/27 for 146 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception. They've been all over the map in this phase of the game of late, with a high of 296 net yards allowed in week 14 (29/51 for 296 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions by the Bears' QBs) and last week's low given up to the Cowboys. Over the past 5 weeks, they've averaged only 14 points given up per contest. This season, Washington averages 214 pass yards allowed per game (16th in the NFL), with 20 TDs allowed vs. 14 interceptions generated (tied for 23rd in the NFL) and 33 sacks to their credit (tied for 16th in the NFL). At their best, they are tough (as Dallas found out last week), but the unit isn't consistently solid.

Hasselbeck and company have a good matchup to work with when the Redskins come calling this week - however, the weather could limit how much passing goes on in this contest so keep an eye on that.

Weather: Qwest Field is in for a soggy day on Saturday, with a forecast 45F for a high and 38F for a low, with a 70% chance for rain. If the rain comes down in buckets at game time, footing and ball handling will be tougher than usual for both teams. Also, wind can be a problem in this venue, throwing a wrench in the passing and kicking games. Weather looks like a larger than usual factor in this matchup.

New York Giants Passing Offense at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Eli Manning was "on" against the Patriots last Saturday, with 22/32 for 251 yards, 4 TDs and 1 interception to his credit, after a dismal 7/15 for 111 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions vs. Buffalo in week 16. He's thrown for 6 TDs and 3 interceptions over the past 4 weeks, but excepting the game vs. New England Manning has been pretty mediocre of late. We'll see which version of Manning shows up for the playoffs. Last week, Plaxico Burress (as usual) led the team with 4/84/2 after being able to actually practice all week long (for the first time in many moons). Kevin Boss, Jeremy Shockey's replacement, did a great job vs New England with 4/50/1, and Brandon Jacobs hauled in 5/44/1 to account for Manning's other TD throw. Last week, the Giants' offense looked like a well-oiled machine.

The Buccaneers' pass D is 1st in the NFL averaging 170.5 net yards allowed per game, with 18 TDs given up to date vs. 16 interceptions generated (tied for 17th in the NFL). They have thrown opposing QBs down 33 times (tied for 16th in the NFL). The Giants are just outside the top ten in the NFL at protecting their QB, though, with 28 sacks allowed to date (New England got to Manning once last week). Over the past 5 weeks, the Bucs have allowed 186 or less pass yards in each contest, with a low of 27 yards given up in week 15 (to lowly Atlanta).

Manning got his engine revved up last week, but the Buccaneers are going to be a speed bump for the Giants this week - advantage, Tampa Bay.

Weather: Nice Florida weather is forecast for the Tampa Bay area on Sunday, with a high in the upper 70's (77F) and a low around 59F, with a 20% chance for rain. It sounds like great weather is on tap for this wild-card matchup.

Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Offense vs Jacksonville Jaguars Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Ben Roethlisberger and Hines Ward sat out of the season finale - but in the 4 weeks prior to week 17, Roethlisberger posted 72/117 for 778 yards, 9 TDs and 2 interceptions, with 14/63/1 rushing as a sweetener. Ward saw 42 targets for 26/219/3 during those 4 weeks (13-16), while Santonio Holmes was second in chances with 19 for 9/180/0. Nate Washington hauled in 3 scores from Roethlisberger weeks 13-16, with 14 targets for 7/125/3, and Najeh Davenport snagged 2 TDs with 6 for 5/82/2. Assuming Roethlisberger's sore ankle has responded well to his week of rest, it looks like the Steelers pass attack is in good shape entering the wild card round of the playoffs. Roethlisberger tossed 16/33 for 146 yards, 3 TDs and 0 interceptions against the Jaguars in week 15, with scores going to Hines Ward (4/31/1), Nate Washington (1/30/1) and Heath Miller (2/24/1).

The Jaguars had 11 sacks and 5 interceptions entering week 17 (when they rested most of their key starters), with an average of 147.25 passing yards allowed per game. Sage Rosenfels could only muster 11/18 for 120 net yards, 1 TD and 1 interception against these guys last week (even with the starters sidelined for a good part of the game). In fact, the Jags have given up 120 net passing yards or less in each of their final 4 games. To date, the team has racked up 20 interceptions (tied for 4th in the NFL) and 37 sacks (tied for 9th in the league). Surprisingly, the Steelers' OL has given up 47 sacks this year (tied with the Falcons for 7th-most in the NFL), which is the most sacks that any playoff team has surrendered during regular season. The Jaguars' pass rushers will be after Roethlisberger early and often in this game (Pittsburgh gave up 5 sacks to Jacksonville the last time these teams met in week 15). Adding to the problem along the OL is the left tackle woes the team is enduring right now, with Marvel Smith battling a sore back (he was inactive last week) and his backup, Max Starks, suffering a knee injury last week.

The Jaguars bring a lot of heat to bear on opposing passers, and Roethlisberger was hit aplenty the last time these teams faced off. Even with the home-field advantage at Pittsburgh backs, this looks like a tough matchup for the home team.

San Diego Chargers Passing Offense vs Tennessee Titans Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Philip Rivers tossed 13/23 for 135 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions against the ball-hawking Raider defense last week before giving way to Billy Volek - Rivers has been rested for parts of the last 2 games of the season. During the last 5 weeks of 2007, Chris Chambers (30 for 17/329/2) and Antonio Gates (30 for 15/150/1) have been Rivers' favorite targets, followed by Vincent Jackson (24 for 12/174/1) and LaDainian Tomlinson (18 for 13/68/2). The Chargers' offense is solid but unspectacular in this phase of the game entering the playoffs. The last time the Chargers faced the Titans (week 14), the game went into overtime with Rivers compiling 21/40 for 228 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions (that day the Chargers were visiting LP Field - this time the Titans are in the Chargers' house).

The Titans are currently 10th in the NFL averaging 199.2 net pass yards allowed per game, with 21 passing TDs given up to date. They are tied for 2nd in the NFL with 22 interceptions and 7th in the NFL with 40 sacks to their credit - these guys are aggressive pass rushers and sport a ball-hawking secondary. However, the Chargers are one of the best pass-blocking units in the NFL with only 24 sacks allowed to date. Tennessee will have to work hard to put Rivers on his back (they did register 5 sacks of Rivers back in week 14). The Colts' tandem of Peyton Manning and Jim Sorgi could only post 25/40 for 148 net yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions against Tennessee last week, but practically the entire starting lineup sat out of the game. Over the last 4 weeks, the Titans have allowed over 200 yards passing twice and under 200 yards passing twice, with a high of 228 net yards allowed and a low of 148 (for an average of 196.5 net passing yards given up during that time frame). These guys are a good, but not elite, pass D on balance.

Even though the Chargers have home field advantage in this contest, it looks like they have a tough fight on their hands with the Titans coming to call during the wild card round. Keep an eye on Titan DT Albert Haynesworth's hamstring this week as his presence (or lack of it) completely changes this defense.

Weather: Qualcomm Stadium expects a high of 55F with a low of 47F on Sunday, with a 60% chance of rain forecast. If the rain comes down in sheets at game time, footing and ball-handling will be larger issues than usual for both the Titans and the Chargers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Passing Offense vs New York Giants Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway took week 17 off as a precautionary measure, and they only played part-time against the 49ers two weeks ago (12/20 for 196 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions for Garcia that day, with 1/29/0 flowing to Galloway) - they should be well-rested and up to 100% entering the game vs. New York. To date, Garcia has thrown 209/327 for 2440 yards, 13 TDs and 4 interceptions (with 35/116/1 rushing), hooking up with Galloway for 57/1014/6 during the regular season. Ike Hilliard is second on the team this year with 87 targets for 62/722/1 receiving - of late, TE Jerramy Stevens has come on with 7 targets for 6/81/3 weeks 13-16.

The Giants' pass rush is fearsome (they lead the NFL with 53 sacks this year), and they also manage to limit most teams to around 200 yards passing (they currently average 207.3 net pass yards allowed per game, with 24 TDs given up). The secondary hasn't generated a lot of turnovers (15 interceptions, tied for 20th in the NFL), though. Against the Patriots' vaunted attack, the Giants handed over 32/42 for 346 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions (1 sack generated, but they hit Tom Brady quite a few times just as he released the football). In 4 out of their 5 games prior to the season finale, the Giants held opposing passers to 165 or less net yards through the air. Usually, these guys are solid when it comes to defensing vs. the opposing passer and receivers.

Tampa has done their best to keep the starters healthy, but even though they have well-rested players and home field advantage, this looks like a tough matchup to us.

Washington Redskins Passing Offense at Seattle Seahawks Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Todd Collins has been excellent since taking over at QB for the Redskins, with 22/31 for 244 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions last week vs. the Cowboys and 67/105 for 888 yards, 5 TDs and 0 interceptions since stepping in for the injured Jason Campbell. His QB rating is currently 106.4 - the guy is on a hot streak for sure. Santana Moss (32 targets for 18/290/2), Chris Cooley (24 for 13/202/1), and Antwaan Randle-El (17 for 12/152/1) have been his favorite targets - RB Clinton Portis has also seen 17 chances and has hauled in 15/161/0 during Collins' time under center. The Redskins' passing attack is going full bore entering the playoffs.

The Seahawks' pass defense ranks 19th in the NFL averaging 219.1 pass yards allowed per game, with 15 passing TDs given up in 16 games, vs. 20 interceptions (tied for 4th in the NFL) and 45 sacks (tied for 4th in the NFL). Prior to last week's half-hearted and short-handed effort vs. Atlanta, they had only allowed 11 pass TDs in 15 games - most of the time it is very hard to score more than 1 passing/receiving TD against the Seahawks on any given Sunday. Chris Redman surprised everyone with 17/27 for 240 yards, 4 TDs and 0 interceptions vs. Seattle last week.

Forget last week's debacle vs. Atlanta - in their own house, the Seahawks will make things tough even for the hard-charging Collins and company.

Tennessee Titans Passing Offense at San Diego Chargers Passing Defense (Bad Matchup)

"I can't really say right now if Vince is going to play this week," HC Jeff Fisher said on Monday while discussing Young's re-injured quadriceps. "I have a good feeling he'll be back on the practice field, and we'll see how he goes. We'll just take it one day at a time. He would benefit from practice, yes. But he's also played them several weeks ago." Owners invested in the Tennessee passing attack during the playoffs will want to monitor the practice reports/official Friday injury report to see how Young progresses during the week - the last time he faced the Chargers, Young tossed 13/21 for 121 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions in the course of a 23-17 loss in overtime. Young has thrown for just 2 TDs in one game over the last 4 weeks, with 3 interceptions during that span of time. Kerry Collins, who stepped in to lead the Titans to a "W" over the Colts' second-teamers last week, tossed 10/13 for 106 yards, 0 TDs, 0 interceptions and set up 3 late-game field goals for Tennessee last week. If Young can't go, Collins would be the guy to test the Chargers' secondary this week.

Speaking of San Diego, the Chargers ended the regular season with 30 interceptions (1st in the NFL), 42 sacks (5th in the league) and an average of 213.3 passing yards allowed per game (14th in the NFL). They did allow 20 passing TDs over 16 games, so you can't call this a "shut-down" type pass defense, but they are very aggressive when it comes to rushing the passer and they break on the ball once it is in the air. Tennessee runs in the middle of the NFL pack when it comes to sacks allowed (30 so far this year), and they handed over 2 sacks to the Chargers last time around the block.

Tennessee has injury woes at the QB position entering the playoffs, and will face a hostile crowd backing up a formidable pass D this week - even when Young has been able to play of late, he's been pretty ordinary throwing the ball. This looks like a bad matchup for the visitors from our perspective.