Breaking Down the Scouting Process
Posted 8/28 by Bob Magaw, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
This article will present an outline of some of the many possible factors that might be weighed and evaluated in a thorough vetting of prospects. The list is intended to be representative and suggestive, rather than comprehensive and exhaustive. More important than being a rigid template of criteria is if this serves as a springboard for your own thinking, or launching pad for finding your own ways to formulate and organize the material.
One way to look at the process of scouting and breaking down prospects is to think of a series of stacked transparency OVERLAYS, comprised of individual sheets themselves containing a partial image with different and separated color codes, which when combined together render a more coherent picture of the prospect being examined. Having a more complete picture of individual prospects will help to make more informed decisions in drafting and dynasty roster construction.
The process which this metaphor is trying to capture involves being able to keep track of and grasp different kinds of information about a prospect (observing not only the surface features but drilling down and attending to many smaller details and keeping them in mind simultaneously) when making judgments and decisions about players and rosters. Certainly with veterans there will be much quantitative and historical data to draw from through their body of work, stats and trends. But with rookies and younger players suddenly thrust into greater prominence (whether through injuries, cuts, trades, beating out a vet for a starting gig, etc.), other means must be used to make inferences about how the physical traits, athletic gifts and skill sets they bring to the table will translate to the NFL, as well as how they are likely to separate themselves into poor, average, good and outstanding pro talents.
Needless to say, scouting different positions and breaking down their relative prospects may entail prioritizing certain traits and attributes more than others. That said, all positions will share many common characteristics in the evaluation process. Below are 21 (BLACKJACK!) traits, attributes and categories which might be worth taking a closer look at, in trying to build a "tool kit" of ways by which to vet potential prospects and help parse their chances at the next level. Feel free to add your own and expand your repertoire of tools to bring to bear in attacking the problem of scouting prospects.
PHYSICAL TRAITS - Scouts know triangle numbers (height, weight and 40 time) are often correlated with success or failure, so they do their homework and know what constitutes current acceptable, exceptional and inferior numbers for the respective positions. They aren't immutable, ironclad "laws", but can be another valuable layer and level of data to look at. Knowing the rules helps to know when it is OK to break the rules. Though MIN DB Antoine Winfield doesn't have prototypical measurables for a stud run support CB (5'9" 180), he is such an aggressive, skilled and voracious tackler that his lack of prototypical size is rendered irrelevant. An interesting question regarding this is whether NYG RB Brandon Jacobs is "too tall" to be an effective runner and feature back material in the NFL. At 6'4" he would be one of the taller RBs in league history. Scouts are divided on this issue, and until he proves it, it will remain an open and unanswered question.
OTHER MEASURABLES - CHI DE Mark Anderson turned in one of the best overall workouts at his combine, at any position, which might have been been viewed as a foreshadowing of things to come before his break out rookie season. Measurables such as the vertical jump can be a great indicator of explosiveness. Cone drill and shuttle times which test quickness and change-of-direction can be useful in sorting WRs and DBs.
ATHLETICISM AND VERSATILITY - DBs that can just handle run support but are a liability in coverage and the converse case of DBs that are only adept in coverage but severely limited in run support are fast becoming dinosaurs. DBs like Troy Polamalu that can hit like a LB, cover like a CB and be a game breaker by scoring like a RB/WR with explosive open field running skills when given the chance to make a play are increasingly in vogue. Top 10 drafted safeties used to be very rare, but several that fit the multitasking profile of being able to run, hit and cover (including Michael Huff, Donte Whitner and both WAS starting safeties Sean Taylor and LaRon Landry) in recent seasons have made this an increasingly common occurrence in drafts.
PEDIGREE - This could be meant in several senses, in terms of bloodlines and "NFL genes", and draft pedigree. Highly regarded rookie safety LaRon Landry of the Redskins would be an example illustrating both meanings. His older brother Dawan of the Ravens had an outstanding rookie season in '06 (and LaRon comes into the league far more heralded). The younger Landry was the consensus top safety, DB and arguably overall defensive player in the nation in his class (as the sixth overall selection narrowly missing being the top overall defensive pick in the '07 draft - highly touted Bucs DE Gaines Adams received that distinction by being taken off the board fourth overall), and one of the highest drafted safeties in the past several decades. KC SLB Derrick Johnson also had good bloodlines (his brother Dwight played for the Giants and cousin Bert Emanuel was a former Falcons first round QB/WR conversion who starred in Atlanta's potent "Red Gun" passing attack). DJ also carried an elite, blue chip grade in the draft and was selected in the mid-first round (very high for a LB).
RESUME - How did the prospect fare in college, and looking back even further, what were their prep accomplishments. Every player has a kind of trajectory to their career. Tracing it can help you see the outline of its arc in advance. DEN MLB D.J. Williams and DET WLB Ernie Sims have almost identical resumes in that they were star two way RB/LBs and among the highest recruited preps in the nation for their respective classes.
PRODUCTIVITY - IND SS Bob Sanders doesn't fit the mold with prototypical size, and he definitely comes with injury concern baggage, but at Iowa and with the Colts, he has always been productive when on the field. While he may not look the part of an intimidating secondary presence, or how you would draw up from scratch via a blueprint in a bioengineering lab, when he is on the field the dude just gets it done. While short he isn't small, and actually has an imposing physical stature, and his 4.3 40 and 40"+ vertical jump are athletic equalizers and key compensating factors that more than make up for his lack of classic size for the position. He is also proof that it is hard to measure a man's heart, determination and intensity.
DURABILITY AND MEDICAL HISTORY - Is there a pattern of missed games, dating back to college and even prep career? TB RB Cadillac Williams has tantalizing potential given the record breaking first three games to start his NFL career, but he is also risky, with a disturbing medical history (he has already had foot and back problems in just two years as a pro), and his relatively unproven body of work as a feature RB, splitting carries with Ronnie Brown while at Auburn. CAR MLB Dan Morgan makes Evil Knievel look like a piker in comparison.
LEVEL OF COMPETITION - Div I or small school? Using level of competition as a "filter" or screening device is more important to invoke early on in the scouting process. Once small school players become established, we cease to care as much if CHI CB Charles Tillman went to Louisiana-Lafayette or KC DE Jared Allen went to Idaho State. Pro Bowl caliber CB Rashean Mathis of JAX came from the modest starting point of tiny Bethune-Cookman. New WAS MLB London Fletcher-Baker came from football powerhouse John Carroll University. Of course the converse is true, and players that come from big time programs aren't immune from bust-dom. See how former USC/PAC-10 great, top 10 overall pick and Lions WR Mike Williams less than illustrious pro career has unfolded thus far in this context, already cut loose from his original team DET for a nominal future day two pick.
INSTINCTS AND FOOTBALL SMARTS - See Lofa Tatupu. Even if he may not test off the charts in terms of his measurables, he is such a great student of the game, adept at recognizing tendencies and able to process information and react quickly to it (the step where the brain tells the body to move) that he often gets to the play faster than their teammates, helped by his almost unerring, Singletary-esque first step. Ex-Steelers QB Terry Bradshaw may have been in a world of hurt in a game of Scrabble, but he could find the open man and thread the needle on 40 yard passes.
CONSISTENCY AND MOTOR - Does a prospect play hard all the time, or just when they feel like it and it suits them. Do they consistently rack up productive numbers, or do they disappear for long stretches? Do they play like they are just going through the motions or like their hair is on fire? Do they fatigue and tire easily, or do they have the stamina, endurance and physical conditioning to be counted on the whole game and especially during crunch time.
INTANGIBLES - Are they tough, hard workers, team players, leaders, passionate about the game, have a burning desire to be great and perform well in pressure situations?
CHARACTER - Will they be banned from the league for multiple drug program violations (Odell Thurman), or end up in jail (Pacman Jones and Chris Henry)?
AGE - The fact that MIA QB John Beck is 26 years old due to spending time on a Mormon mission is not necessarily a bad thing. Having presumably more life experiences and greater physical development might help him overcome the rigors of the NFL and give him greater maturity and poise, which could be extremely important for his position.
COMP PLAYERS - How is a prospect's constellation of traits similar to (and different from) NFL players that have come before them and who have succeeded (or failed). Look for patterns of success and failure in relative and respective skill sets. As you feed your internal network of prospect associations and connections through studying scouting profiles (and film breakdown), it becomes easier to trap new associations and connections within its expanding web, constantly morphing into one with greater discernment and more encompassing scope.
COLLATING MULTIPLE SCOUTING PROFILES AND RESOURCES - DUH! Seriously, try and cultivate good sources. Some of my favorites are the great work done by the FBG staff (shameless plug), Frank Coyle, Mike Mayock, Sporting News, PFW, USA Today, NFL.com, Scott Wright's Draft Countdown, etc. Lining up several profiles will give you a better sense of a player than just one, and can help correct cases of excess optimism or pessimism from individual scouts. It can also help in the process of discovering which scouts you come to find most accurate and which resources are most reliable and therefore worthy of being weighted more heavily in your overall evaluation.
VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS - When dealing with young, unproven and unestablished players, this can be one of the absolute best tools for making sense of the bewildering array of scouting profiles (see above) on prospects, helping to place them in context, judge their closeness or distance from the mark and determine their relevance and relative usefulness. If a picture is worth a thousand words, video highlights have an immense, nearly incalculable power to augment and transcend words. Spending just a few minutes looking at the highlights of MIN RB Adrian Peterson and DET WR Calvin Johnson will show why scouts have been drooling over their NFL prospects for several years. There is literally no substitute for WITNESSING WITH YOUR OWN EYES a players explosiveness, separation, leaping ability, hands, open field moves, contact balance and tackle breaking power... OR, on defense, instincts, ability to get off blocks, range and tackling prowess. The NFL channels resident in-house scout, former NFL player and career coach/scout's son Mike Mayock does yeoman's work in breaking down film of incoming classes by position.
SCHEME-DRIVEN CONTEXT - Why is a DE usually more productive than a DT, a MLB or WLB more than a SLB and SS more than FS (see FBG John Norton's seminal work on IDP positions)? Sometimes a stud SLB such as Derrick Johnson or a CB like Antoine Winfield are more valuable than less talented options at sexier, more high profile positions. Different schemes can make certain positions ultra-productive or render them almost impotent and unstartable or even unrosterable. Attending closely to the reasons WHY can be the difference between chronically stumbling through drafts and leagues and dominating them.
TEAM FIT - How does a prospect's skill set mesh with his destination, and how does he fit into the team's future plans. Rookie CAR WLB/MLB Jon Beason is on the bonus plan, as he can fit in two different ways. At first he is expected to step in right away and rack up points at the WLB position (a huge need with the '06 departure of prized free agent Will Witherspoon, the Rams MLB), and later groomed as the long term replacement for Morgan at MLB. When it comes to the extremely fragile and brittle Morgan, long term could mean the second half of the opening game kicking off the upcoming season. From the middle Beason could put up numbers that rival and compare favorably with other consensus best LBs from the '07 class (SF ILB Patrick Willis and BUF MLB Paul Poluzny).
STARTING STATUS - CAR CBs Chris Gamble, Ken Lucas and Richard Marshall are all quality players, but only two can start (though Marshall is talented enough to put up top 30 numbers even if he ends up as the nickel back... some scouts thought he was the teams best CB last season).
IN-SEASON STAT SPLITS - Breaking down the numbers in a more fine-grained manner can be one of the greatest tools for dissecting the potential of breakout prospects. Make it a habit and be comfortable moving in and out of larger and smaller time frames and data samples. As in the film technique of rapid freeze frames onto progressively smaller areas of the original field of vision or image, changing your vantage point and perspective can enable you to spot patterns that went unnoticed after the first pass, or over larger time frames.
CONTRACTS - Another layer and level of information unto itself which, if you have the eyes to see (and this is an acquired skill you can get better at), will help to decode and interpret which players are in a team's future plans and which aren't, and act as a skeleton key to unlock many positional battles which cut across the entire league.
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