Ear To The Ground - Week 13

  Posted 11/28 by Bob Magaw, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

"The cosmos speaks in patterns" - Roger von Oech (paraphrase of Heraclitus)

"Luck is the residue of design" - Branch Rickey (Brooklyn Dodgers GM - integrated baseball)

"Winning is our business" - Bill Parcells (Ex-Giants/Patriots/Jets/Cowboys HC and future HoFer)

The subject matter of ETTG is IDP with an emphasis on Dynasty leagues. Ear To The Ground was chosen for this column's title to convey a sense of detecting rumblings in the distance... an ability essential to project a prospect from college to pro and rookie to veteran. It will consist of three sections: Team Reports (Watchlist), a Defensive Rookie of the Year Meter and an IDP Spotlight. The emphasis here will be on the impact positions of LB, DE and S... exceptional DTs and CBs will be noted for leagues that differentiate DE/DT and S/CB. Dynasty content is geared towards youth. Like most successful working rosters that employ a blend of production and potential, there will be a balance of rookie and veteran coverage in the mix. While by the nature of much IDP coverage new names will bubble up to the surface from week to week, ETTG will try to identify key players early on and provide a synoptic overview for the whole season as it unfolds.

A Post-Bye Week Summing Up - Changing of the Guard?

While this is ostensibly an IDP column (as well as an emphasis on Dynasty format), as has been noted before, there aren't too many DEFENSE-ONLY leagues, so it is a good exercise to keep your chops up in that domain, too. Below is a continuation of the study two weeks ago (FBG Week 11 content) on defense, for offense. While tracking the subdivisions in the positional breakdowns was useful in that context (DE & DT, 4-3 & 3-4 DE, ILB & OLB, 4-3 MLB & 3-4 ILB, WLB, SLB & 3-4 OLB, S & CB, SS & FS), there aren't different kinds of QBs and in general other kinds of skill position subdivisions, so the positional breakdown has been omitted. The age and pedigree breakdowns (with interstitial commentary) have been retained. Hopefully they will prove helpful for dynasty purposes, whether in making better informed decisions in initial and subsequent rookie drafts, trades and free agent waiver wire pick ups. While some trends, such as RBs are old by 30 and first rounders are more likely to start and excel than 7th rounders and UFAs may seem like platitudes (they are), the hope here is to put any potential DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE RESPECTIVE SKILL POSITIONS in terms of developmental curves and attrition rate in more stark contrast and bold relief, by making the age and pedigree breakdowns more quantitative, rigorous and therefor explicit.

It is always a good habit when examining the Top 10/20/30* for a given position (or whatever sample size you choose to put under the data-scope) to try and guesstimate who is legit and who is a pretender. Which skill position players are likely to remain in the final Top 10/20/30 standings at their respective positions, and who will be jettisoned? Which skill position players currently outside the Top 10/20/30 have a shot to penetrate it, and who will remain isolated outside?

Among other things, take care to track things like games played (of course!) in this context, and also changes in team (entailing changes in scheme and surrounding talent), as well as starting status (including encroaching RBBC, in the case of the RB position). It is also hoped that the below breakdowns by age and pedigree will provide some clues in your research.

With eight sets of rankings (Top 10 QBs, Top 20 RBs, Top 30 WRs & Top 10 TEs for '07 and '06) containing nine pieces of information for each player ('07 & '06 ranking, name, NFL team, age, draft pedigree, college, height & weight), that is more than 1,200 data points tracked below (not counting the data mining section!) that can be rapidly scanned and processed... actually there is overlap with many players making both '06 and '07 lists for their respective positions.

More fertile ground for data mining would be looking at measurables (for positional physical prototype info), as well as college pedigree (Div I, small school, etc.), but these will be left as a suggestion for further research and an exercise for the interested reader. Also, 40 times (not included here) can be instructive for positional breakdown, though also misleading at times.

You can also look at the age data and breakdown not only WITHIN a position to see where a certain positional player is likely to be in his learning curve (ramping up, peaking, cresting or twilight), but also to see if there are INTER-POSITIONAL differences... i.e. - do these developmental curves differ BETWEEN positions.

Are there differences in the Top 10/20/30 in terms of draft pick distribution across positions? And so on...

* The skill position players are broken down below into Top 10 QBs, TOP 20 RBs, Top 30 WRs & Top 10 TEs ('07 & '06) to yield one starting QB, two starting RBs, three starting WRs and one starting TE in a typical non-flex 10 team league.

2007 Quarterbacks - Top 10

'07 (& '06 Rank), Name, NFL Team, Position, Age, Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

1. (#7) - Tom Brady, NE, 30, 6th, Michigan (6'4" 210)
2. (#19) - Tony Romo, DAL, 27, UFA, Eastern Illinois (6'2" 220)
3. (#43) - Derek Anderson, CLE, 24, 6th, Oregon St. (6'6" 240)
4. (#8) - Brett Favre, GB, 38, 2nd, Southern Mississippi (6'2" 220)
5. (#10) - Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, 25, 1.11, Miami (OH) (6'5" 240)
6. (#5) - Carson Palmer, CIN, 26, 1.01, USC (6'5" 230)
7. (#22) - Matt Hasselbeck, SEA, 32, 6th, Boston College (6'4" 220)
8. (#1) - Peyton Manning, IND, 31, 1.01, Tennessee (6'5" 230)
9. (#2) - Drew Brees, NO, 28, 2nd, Purdue (6'1" 220)
10. (#6) - Jon Kitna, DET, 36, UFA, Central Washington (6'2" 215)

Data Mining Section

Percentage of QBs from '06 Top 10 - 7 of 10

While there has been an extraordinary amount of churning and turnover at the QB position around the league this season, not so much at the top.

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 QB... 318.1 - 180.3 = 137.8 pts

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 0
• (24-26) - 3
• (27-29) - 2
• (30-32) - 3
• (33-35) - 0
• (36-38) - 2

Going in we might expect QBs to have the greatest longevity of the skill position players (along with WRs). However, playing longer isn't necessarily synonymous with playing at a high level. So far this season just two Top 10 QBs are older than 32.

Pedigree Breakdown

• Day One (this will have new meaning in future drafts) - 5
• Day Two - 3
• Undrafted Free Agent - 2

An even split with 5 first day QBs and 5 non-first day QBs populating the Top 10. The poster child for a QB with humble origins excelling is UFA Tony Romo at #2 QB. Derek Anderson, at #3 QB, is a 6th rounder.

By Round

• 1 - 3
• 2 - 2
• 3 - 0
• 4 - 0
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 3
• 7 - 0

2006 Quarterbacks - Top 10

'06 (& '07 Rank), Name, NFL Team, Position, Age (in '06), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

1. (#8) - Peyton Manning (see above)
2. (#9) - Drew Brees (see above)
3. (#23) - Marc Bulger, STL, 29, 6th, West Virginia (6'3" 210)
4. (legal problems) - Michael Vick, ATL, 26, 1.01, Virginia Tech (6'1" 215)
5. (#6) - Carson Palmer (see above)
6. (#10) - Jon Kitna (see above)
7. (#1) - Tom Brady (see above)
8. (#4) - Brett Favre (see above)
9. (#16) - Philip Rivers, SD, 24, 1.04, North Carolina St. (6'5" 230)
10. (#5) - Ben Roethlisberger (see above)

Data Mining Section

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 QB... 362.8 - 247.4 = 115.4 pts

Amazingly, Tom Brady has already put more distance between himself and the QB #10 through ten games (see above) than Manning did last year over the course of an entire season.

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 0
• (24-26) - 4
• (27-29) - 3
• (30-32) - 1
• (33-35) - 1
• (36-38) - 1

Again, just two QBs over 32 among the Top 10 (the same two). Also again, no QBs less than 24.

Pedigree Breakdown

• Day One - 7
• Day Two - 2
• Undrafted Free Agent - 1

A more top heavy distribution this season of day one pedigree relative to day two.

By Round

• 1 - 5
• 2 - 2
• 3 - 0
• 4 - 0
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 2
• 7 - 0

No QBs from the 3rd-5th round in '06 or '07 (so far).

2007 Running Backs - Top 20

'07 (& '06 Rank), Name, NFL Team, Position, Age, Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

1. (#6) - Brian Westbrook, PHI, 28, 3rd, Villanova (5'8" 200)
2. ('07 rookie) - Adrian Peterson, MIN, 22, 1.07, Oklahoma (6'0" 220)
3. (#1) - LaDainian Tomlinson, SD, 28, 1.05, TCU (5'10" 220)
4. (#12) - Joseph Addai, IND, 24, 1.30, LSU (6'0" 205)
5. (#26) - Willis McGahee, BAL, 26, 1.23, Miami (6'0" 230)
6. (#36) - Clinton Portis, WAS, 26, 2nd, Miami (5'11" 215)
7. (#25) - Ronnie Brown, MIA, 25, 1.02, Auburn (6'1" 225)
8. ('07 rookie) - Marshawn Lynch, BUF, 21, 1.12, California (5'10" 225)
9. (#17) - Reggie Bush, NO, 22, 1.02, USC (6'0" 200)
10. (#14) - Marion Barber, DAL, 24, 4th, Minnesota (5'11" 215)
11. (#20) - Edgerrin James, ARI, 29, 1.04, Miami (6'0" 215)
12. (#8) - Jones-Drew, Maurice, JAX, 22, 2nd, UCLA (5'8" 205)
13. (#16) - Jamal Lewis, CLE, 28, 1.05, Tennessee (6'0" 240)
14. (#5) - Willie Parker, PIT, 27, UFA, North Carolina (5'9" 210)
15. (#71) - LenDale White, TEN, 22, 2nd, USC (6'2" 240+)
16. (#120) - Earnest Graham, TB, 27, UFA, Florida (5'9" 215)
17. (#38) - Cedric Benson, CHI, 24, 1.04, Texas (6'0" 225)
18. (#2) - Larry Johnson, KC, 28, 1.27, Penn St. (6'1" 230)
19. (#61) - Kenny Watson, CIN, 29, UFA, Penn St. (5'11" 220)
20. (#32) - DeShaun Foster, CAR, 27, 2nd, UCLA (6'0" 220)

Data Mining Section

Percentage of RBs from '06 Top 20 - 10 of 20 (Tiki Barber retired)

More churning and turnover than seen in the QB data above.

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 RB... 190.7 - 121.9 = 68.8 pts
• #11 & #20 RB... 118.7 - 95.5 = 23.2 pts

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 5
• (24-26) - 6
• (27-29) - 9
• (30-32) - 0
• (33-35) - 0
• (36-38) - 0

RB is notorious for having the least longevity among the skill position players. But they can also ramp up to a higher level of production sooner in some cases, given the more instinctive nature of the position. Unlike at QB, early breakthroughs in the 21-23 age bracket are routine. Production appears to fall off a cliff at 30 (this is of course a very limited data set). A diminishing return that could crop up from going TOO far back into the historical record in examining productivity relative to aging curves for the RB position is that the state of the art in sports medicine is so much more advanced than it used to be. The prognosis for recovery from an ACL tear is probably a lot better than it was 10-20 years ago. With three elite RBs in the Top 20 still playing at a high level at 28 (LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook and Larry Johnson), the shape of the age demographic at the position could be tilting in a different direction in the next few seasons.

Pedigree Breakdown

• Day One - 16
• Day Two - 1
• Undrafted Free Agent - 3

Oddly, Marion Barber is the only non-day one pick among the 17 non-UFA RBs in the Top 20!

By Round

• 1 - 11
• 2 - 4
• 3 - 1
• 4 - 1
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 0
• 7 - 0

Pedigree weighs heavily in this distribution... far more so than seen at the QB position above. Almost twice as many first rounders as all the other rounds COMBINED.

2006 Running Backs

'06 (& '07 Rank), Name, NFL Team, Position, Age (in '06), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

1. (#2) - LaDainian Tomlinson (see above)
2. (probable IR) - Larry Johnson (see above)
3. (#30) - Steven Jackson, STL, 23, 1.24, Oregon St. (6'2" 235)
4. (#21) - Frank Gore, SF, 23, 3rd, Miami (5'10" 215)
5. (#14) - Willie Parker (see above)
6. (#1) - Brian Westbrook (see above)
7. (retired) - Tiki Barber, FA, 31, 2nd, Virginia (5'10" 195)
8. (#12) - Maurice Jones-Drew (see above)
9. (#52) - Rudi Johnson, CIN, 27, 4th, Auburn (5'9" 230)
10. (IR) - Deuce McAllister, NO, 27, 1.23, Mississippi, (6'1" 220)
11. (#60) - Ladell Betts, WAS, 27, 2nd, Iowa (5'10" 220)
12. (#4) - Joseph Addai (see above)
13. (#22) - Chester Taylor, MIN, 27, 6th, Toledo (5'11" 215)
14. (#10) - Marion Barber (see above)
15. (#47) - Ahman Green, HOU, 29, 3rd, Nebraska (6'0" 215)
16. (#13) - Jamal Lewis (see above)
17. (#9) - Reggie Bush (see above)
18. (#32) - Fred Taylor, JAX, 30, 1.09, Florida? (6'1" 230)
19. (retired?) - Corey Dillon, NE, 32, 2nd, Washington (6'1" 225)
20. (#11) - Edgerrin James (see above)

Data Mining Section

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 RB... 427.4 - 191.9 = 235.5 pts
• #11 & #20 RB... 189.9 - 173.6 = 16.3 pts

So far in 2007 #1 RB Brian Westbrook isn't pacing anywhere close to the distance LaDainian Tomlinson separated himself from the pack by in 2007. Similar to Tom Brady's potentially record-shattering season at QB in '07, LT had a historic year in '06.

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 6
• (24-26) - 1
• (27-29) - 10
• (30-32) - 3
• (33-35) - 0
• (36-38) - 0

Unlike in '07, there were THREE RBs in the 30+ age brackets. Two retired (Tiki Barber and Corey Dillon) and Fred Taylor has missed time and been up and down even when he was in the lineup, offering a cautionary tale.

Pedigree Breakdown

• Day One - 16
• Day Two - 3
• Undrafted Free Agent - 1

Still skewed to the extreme towards day one pedigree at the RB position. 2007 FBG Magazine cover boy Willie Parker (UFA) has been a notable and conspicuous exception that proves the rule in this context for the past two seasons.

By Round

• 1 - 9
• 2 - 4
• 3 - 3
• 4 - 2
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 1
• 7 - 0

2007 Wide Receivers

'07 (& '06 Rank), Name, NFL Team, Position, Age, Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

1. (#58) - Randy Moss, NE, 30, 1.21, Marshall (6'4" 210)
2. (#2) - Terrell Owens, DAL, 33, 3rd, Tennessee-Chattanooga (6'2" 215)
3. (#11) - T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN, 30, 7th, Oregon St. (6'1" 195)
4. (#26) - Braylon Edwards, CLE, 24, 1.03, Michigan (6'3" 205)
5. (#3) - Reggie Wayne, IND, 29, 1.30, Miami (6'0" 195)
6. (#57) - Wes Welker, NE, 26, UFA, Texas Tech (5'9" 190)
7. (#24) - Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, 24, 1.03, Pittsburgh (6'3" 225)
8. (#4) - Chad Johnson, CIN, 29, 2nd, Oregon St. (6'1" 190)
9. (#12) - Plaxico Burress, NYG, 30, 1.08, Michigan St. (6'5" 230)
10. (#41) - Santonio Holmes, PIT, 23, 1.25, Ohio St. (5'11" 190)
11. (#15) - Joey Galloway, TB, 36, 1.08, Ohio St. (5'11" 190)
12. (#5) - Torry Holt, STL, 31, 1.06, North Carolina St. (6'1" 195)
13. (#14) - Marques Colston, NO, 24, 7th, Hofstra (6'4" 230)
14. (#10) - Roy Williams, DET, 25, 1.07, Texas (6'2" 210)
15. (#54) - Greg Jennings, GB, 24, 2nd, Western Michigan (5'11" 190)
16. (#8) - Steve Smith, CAR, 28, 3rd, Utah (5'9" 180)
17. (#60) - Kevin Curtis, PHI, 29, 3rd, Utah St. (5'11" 185)
18. (#89) - Brandon Marshall, DEN, 23, 4th, Central Florida (6'4" 230)
19. (#97) - Bobby Engram, SEA, 34, 2nd, Penn St. (5'10" 190)
20. ('07 rookie) - Dwayne Bowe, KC, 23, 1.23, LSU (6'2" 220)
21. (#16) - Laveranues Coles, NYJ, 29, 3rd, Florida St. (5'11" 190)
22. (#109) - Shaun McDonald, DET, 26, 4th, Arizona St. (5'10" 180)
23. (#32) - Bernard Berrian, CHI, 26, 3rd, Fresno St. (6'1" 185)
24. (#17) - Anquan Boldin, ARI, 27, 2nd, Florida St. (6'1" 215)
25. (#6) - Donald Driver, GB, 32, 7th, Alcorn St. (5'11" 190)
26. (#49) - Derrick Mason, BAL, 33, 4th, Michigan St. (5'11" 195)
27. (#80) - Roddy White, ATL, 26, 1.27, UAB (6'1" 200)
28. (#56) - Patrick Crayton, DAL, 28, 7th, Northwestern Oklahoma St. (6'0" 200)
29. (#23) - Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ, 25, 4th, North Carolina St. (6'0" 205)
30. (#7) - Lee Evans, BUF, 26, 1.13, Wisconsin (5'10" 195)

Data Mining Section

Percentage of WRs from '06 Top 30 - 17 of 30

Similar in churning and turnover rate numbers to the RBs above.

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 WR... 201.2 - 109.4 = 91.8 pts
• #11 & #20 WR... 107.2 - 90.8 = 16.4 pts
• #21 & #30 WR... 88.9 - 73.9 = 15 pts

Like with record breaking seasons turned in by LT in '06 and Brady in '07 so far, Moss could be poised on the threshold of a historic season. Of course it probably isn't an accident that Brady and Moss are doing so well at their respective positions. Moss has been a huge part of the scoring outburst Brady has enjoyed, just as Brady has been an integral part of the scoring explosion by Moss. Their success also reflects very positively on the Patriots OL.

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 3
• (24-26) - 11
• (27-29) - 7
• (30-32) - 5
• (33-35) - 3
• (36-38) - 1

WR probably more QB-like than RB-like in terms of longevity. In the first age bracket we see more WRs than QBs, but not as many as RB, so it would seem to be more intermediate on the scale of degree in difficulty of transitioning from college to the NFL. Based on above data, in this instance, they aged best among the skill position players.

Pedigree Breakdown

• Day One - 21
• Day Two - 8
• Undrafted Free Agent - 1

The pedigree distribution is not as skewed as heavily towards day one picks as with the RBs, and is more like seen above at QB.

By Round

• 1 - 12
• 2 - 4
• 3 - 5
• 4 - 4
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 0
• 7 - 4

Still, 25 of 29 non-UFA WRs (Wes Welker an outlier as the lone UFA) taken no lower than the 4th round.

2006 Wide Receivers

'06 (& '07 Rank), Name, NFL Team, Position, Age (in '06), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

1. (#74) - Marvin Harrison, IND, 34, 1.19, Syracuse (6'0" 180)
2. (#2) - Terrell Owens (see above)
3. (#5) - Reggie Wayne (see above)
4. (#8) - Chad Johnson (see above)
5. (#12) - Torry Holt (see above)
6. (#25) - Donald Driver (see above)
7. (#30) - Lee Evans (see above)
8. (#16) - Steve Smith (see above)
9. (#86) - Javon Walker, DEN, 28, 1.20, Florida St. (6'3" 215)
10. (#14) - Roy Williams (see above)
11. (#3) - T.J. Houshmandzadeh (see above)
12. (#9) - Plaxico Burress (see above)
13. (#71) - Darrell Jackson, SF, 27, 3rd, Florida (6'0" 195)
14. (#13) - Marques Colston (see above)
15. (#11) - Joey Galloway (see above)
16. (#21) - Laveranues Coles (see above)
17. (#24) - Anquan Boldin, ARI (see above)
18. (#43) - Andre Johnson, HOU, 25, 1.03, Miami (6'2" 220)
19. (#52) - Mike (Fabulous) Furrey (Freak Bros.), DET, 30, UFA, Northern Iowa (6'0" 185)
20. (knee injury) - Terry Glenn, DAL, 32, 1.07, Ohio St. (5'10" 185)
21. (#53) - Reggie Brown, PHI, 25, 2nd, Georgia (6'2" 195)
22. (#35) - Hines Ward, PIT, 30, 3rd, Georgia (5'11" 190)
23. (#29) - Jerricho Cotchery (see above)
24. (#7) - Larry Fitzgerald (see above)
25. (#56) - Isaac Bruce, STL, 34, 2nd, Memphis (6'0" 185)
26. (#4) - Braylon Edwards (see above)
27. (#59) - Santana Moss, WAS, 27, 1.16, Miami (5'9" 185)
28. (#82) - Mark Clayton, BAL, 24, 1.22, Oklahoma (5'11" 185)
29. (#140) - Eddie Kennison, KC, 33, 1.18, LSU (6'0" 195)
30. (#47) - Muhsin Muhammad, CHI, 33, 2nd, Michigan St. (6'2" 220)

Data Mining Section

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 WR... 208.6 - 173.2 = 35.4 pts
• #11 & #20 WR... 162.7 - 141.8 = 20.9 pts
• #21 & #30 WR... 140 - 116.3 = 23.7 pts

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 3
• (24-26) - 7
• (27-29) - 9
• (30-32) - 6
• (33-35) - 5
• (36-38) - 0

Similar to the distribution from the '07 Top 30 WR data.

Pedigree Breakdown

• Day One - 25
• Day Two - 4
• Undrafted Free Agent - 1

A more top heavy mix of high pedigree WRs emerged from the '06 standings.

By Round Similar

• 1 - 15
• 2 - 5
• 3 - 5
• 4 - 1
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 0
• 7 - 3

2007 Tight Ends

'07 (& '06 Rank), Name, NFL Team, Position, Age, Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

1. (#1) - Antonio Gates, SD, 27, UFA, Kent St. (6'4" 260)
2. (#6) - Kellen Winslow, CLE, 24, 1.06, Miami (6'4" 250)
3. (#12) - Jason Witten, DAL, 25, 3rd, Tennessee, (6'5" 260)
4. (#3) - Tony Gonzalez, KC, 31, 1.13, California (6'4" 245)
5. (#13) - Heath Miller, PIT, 25, 1.30, Virginia (6'5" 255)
6. (#15) - Dallas Clark, IND, 27, 1.24, Iowa (6'3" 255)
7. (#5) - Chris Cooley, WAS, 25, 3rd, Utah St. (6'3" 265)
8. (#7) - Jeremy Shockey, NYG, 27, 1.14, Miami (6'5" 250)
9. (#55) - Donald Lee, GB, 27, 5th, Mississippi St. (6'5" 250)
10. (#10) - Ben Watson, NE, 26, 1.32, Georgia (6'3" 255)

Data Mining Section

Percentage of TEs from '06 Top 10 - 6 of 10

Churning and turnover/attrition rates (falling out of top 10, in this instance) similar to those seen at RB and WRs positions.

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 TE... 108.9 - 64.6 = 44.3 pts

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 0
• (24-26) - 5
• (27-29) - 4
• (30-32) - 1
• (33-35) - 0
• (36-38) - 0

Not a lot of great "old" TEs (Tony Gonzalez excepted), so perhaps more RB-like than WR-like. Like RBs, suffer more collisions than WRs (& QBs) in the run game, because of their more extensive use as blockers. To the extent TEs are used in more of a receiving specialist role, this could impact positively on their longevity expectations. On the other hand, there were no TEs in first age bracket (as at QB position), so it seems to take a few years to get up to speed... possibly to physically mature and block well enough to see the field more than just situationally.

Pedigree Breakdown

• Day One - 8
• Day Two - 1
• Undrafted Free Agent - 1

Significantly tilted towards higher pedigree TEs in the Top 10.

By Round

• 1 - 6
• 2 - 0
• 3 - 2
• 4 - 0
• 5 - 1
• 6 - 0
• 7 - 0

Similar to the '07 RB data, twice as many first rounders all the other rounds combined (and only one day two pick). The lone UFA is a distinguished one... #1 TE Antonio Gates.

2006 Tight Ends

'06 (& '07 Rank), Name, NFL Team, Position, Age (in '06), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

1. (#1) - Antonio Gates (see above)
2. (#18) - Alge Crumpler, ATL, 28, 2nd, North Carolina (6'2" 265)
3. (#4) - Tony Gonzalez (see above)
4. (#26) - Todd Heap, BAL, 26, 1.31, Arizona St. (6'4" 250)
5. (#7) - Chris Cooley (see above)
6. (#2) - Kellen Winslow (see above)
7. (#8) - Jeremy Shockey (see above)
8. (#12) - Desmond Clark, CHI, 29, 6th, Wake Forest (6'3" 255)
9. (#34) - L.J. Smith, PHI, 26, 2nd, Rutgers (6'3" 260)
10. (#10) - Ben Watson (see above)

Data Mining Section

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 TE... 146.4 - 83.7 = 62.7 pts

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 1
• (24-26) - 6
• (27-29) - 2
• (30-32) - 1
• (33-35) - 0
• (36-38) - 0

Similar pattern to the '07 TE data, with one TE in the first age bracket this time, and only one 30+ TE (Tony Gonzalez in both cases).

Pedigree Breakdown

• Day One - 8
• Day Two - 1
• Undrafted Free Agent - 1

The massive disparity of day one picks at the top is a pronounced and recurring theme.

By Round

• 1 - 5
• 2 - 2
• 3 - 1
• 4 - 0
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 1
• 7 - 0

Again, just one day two pick.

* FBG YTD stats (through week 10) by Dodds were used above.

Dedicated to fellow FBG IDP staff writer Dave Baker, who introduced me to both IDP and Dynasty leagues a half decade ago, and first acquainted me with many of the concepts systematically organized above.

Thanks for reading Ear to the Ground. Any comments and/or questions are invited - magaw@footballguys.com.

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