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IDP Upgrades / Downgrades

  Posted 12/17 by Aaron Rudnicki


UPGRADES

  • DL Mario Williams, HOU (5 solos, 2 asst, 3.5 sacks)
    With a huge performance on national TV this week, Williams now leads the league in sacks with 13. He's been on an incredible run to finish the season, registering 9 sacks in his last 5 games along with 19 solos, 11 assists, and 2 forced fumbles. The Texans decision to take Williams over Reggie Bush certainly looks a lot more defensible these days. Based on what we're seeing now, it's hard to imagine many other defensive linemen being ranked ahead of Williams next season.
  • DL Jason Taylor, MIA (4 solos, 2 sacks, 1 asst, 1 blocked FG)
    With 2 more sacks on Sunday against the Ravens in the Dolphins first win of the season, Taylor now has 5 sacks in his last 4 games. With 40 solos and 10 sacks, he's basically salvaged what looked like a lost season early on and never gave up despite the team's struggles. Even more impressive, Taylor briefly left the game with a foot injury but returned to play through it. Although he'll be 34 years old when next season begins, Taylor remains one of the safest and most reliable fantasy options at DE.
  • DL Justin Tuck, NYG (7 solos, 1 asst, 1 sack)
    This has been a breakout season for Tuck, who now has 9.5 sacks and 45 solo tackles, despite playing much of the season as a backup behind Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. In addition to his 7 solo tackles and single sack, he also was credited with 3 QB hits this week. Tuck has a good chance to get more playing time next year and will eventually become a starter once Strahan finally retires. Given what he's done with limited snaps, and the fact that the Giants should continue to have a stud pass rusher playing opposite him in Umenyiora, his fantasy potential is very exciting but it may be too late to try and buy low on him in a potential trade.
  • DL Andre Carter, WAS (4 solos, 2 sacks, 1 FF)
    The Redskins have made a lot of mistakes in free agency in the Dan Snyder era, but Carter certainly looks like a success story. He was a top-10 draft pick in 2001 and had 12.5 sacks in 2002, but he had not topped 6.5 sacks in any year since then. With 2 sacks this week, however, he's now up to 10.5 on the year and with 2 games left he has a chance to match his total from 5 years ago. He'll still be only 29 years old next year so a couple more seasons like this would not be a surprise.
  • LB Nick Barnett, GB (13 solos, 2 sacks)
    In what has been a great season for him and the Packers, Barnett had perhaps his best game of the season this week. He made plays all over the field with 13 solo tackles and also contributed 2 sacks. After 3 strong seasons to start his career, Barnett was banged up in 2006 and seemed to struggle while A.J. Hawk enjoyed a strong rookie season. This year, although Hawk continues to play well, Barnett is fully healthy and has reemerged as the stud LB we all knew he could be. With 2 games left to play, he's on pace to set career highs in nearly every category.
  • LB Adalius Thomas, NE (8 solos, 1 asst, 1.5 sacks, 2 FF)
    The injury to Roosevelt Colvin has created more playing time for him at the OLB position and he's responded with 11 solos, 2.5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles in his last two games. Given the contract he signed and the age of several other Patriots linebackers, it's hard to imagine him not playing a bigger role in their defense next season so these types of big plays will likely become more routine.
  • LB Freddie Keiaho, IND (10 solos, 4 asst)
    Keiaho is averaging nearly 7 solo tackles/game this year and he's recorded double digit tackles in two of his last 3 games. Pretty much every other player that has lined up at WLB for the Colts has been a productive fantasy option and Keiaho looks like he'll continue that trend. Health remains a concern for him as he's been banged up a lot during his brief NFL career.
  • LB Thomas Howard, OAK (5 solos, 1 INT, 2 PD)
    Howard added another interception this week to give him an amazing total of 6 for the season, which is the most by a LB since Ray Lewis had 6 in 2003. He is already one of the best cover linebackers in the league and his tackle numbers should improve as he develops his all-around game. Howard is a player on the rise and should form a very productive tandem with Kirk Morrison in Oakland for years to come.
  • DB O.J. Atogwe, STL (4 solos, 2 INT, 2 PD)
    Atogwe flashed some abilities as a playmaker last year when he finished with 3 interceptions and 5 forced fumbles, but he's been taking things to a new level with 6 interceptions in his last 6 games. He now has 7 on the season, which ranks 2nd in the league and first among all safeties. Although the season has mostly been a loss for the Rams, Atogwe looks like a nice building block in the secondary.
  • DB Gerald Alexander, DET (13 solos, 2 asst)
    The Lions have tried several players at FS in recent years, including Terrence Holt and last year's 2nd round pick Daniel Bullocks. With Bullocks going on IR this preseason with a knee injury, an opportunity was created for the rookie Alexander and he has responded with overall solid play. He still makes mistakes in coverage as would be expected for any young player, but he's also shown some toughness and versatility and could wind up as a long-term starter in Detroit.
  • DB Troy Polamalu, PIT (7 solos, 3 asst)
    After missing 3 games with a knee problem, Polamalu returned to action this week and played a strong game. While he's been a bit of a fantasy disappointment lately, he remains one of the league's best safeties and a huge component in the Steelers defense. Expect him to rebound with a more productive season in 2008 if he can stay healthy.
  • DB Michael Griffin, TEN (3 solos, 1 asst, 1 INT, 1 PD)
    Griffin was a 1st round pick of the Titans, who converted him from safety to CB. As would be expected, Griffin needed some time to adjust to his new position but he's been playing very well lately and has now intercepted a pass in three straight games. He's a physical player with good hands and could develop into one of the more reliable fantasy CBs over the next couple years.

DOWNGRADES

  • DL Robert Mathis, IND (DNP)
    Mathis suffered a knee injury last week that forced him to miss practice all week as well as Sunday's game against the Raiders. With the Colts having locked up the #2 seed in the AFC and Dwight Freeney already on IR, the Colts will likely want to keep Mathis healthy for the playoffs so don't expect him to play much if at all over the next two weeks.
  • DL Elvis Dumervil, DEN (1 solo)
    Dumervil has certainly enjoyed a breakout season this year, putting up 11 sacks in 14 games. But, he has been rather inconsistent over the second half of the season. He has only recorded more than 2 solo tackles twice in his last 8 games, and he's also failed to record a single sack in 4 of his last 5 games. The one game he did record a sack, however, came in week 14 when he recorded 3.
  • DL Tim Crowder, DEN (0 tackles)
    The rookie Crowder had been playing well for the Broncos with 4 sacks over a recent 3-game stretch, but he's gone cold of late with just 1 solo tackle over his last 2 games. Not much to be concerned about as defensive linemen normally take awhile to develop and Crowder's early success was hopefully a sign of good things to come.
  • DL Osi Umenyiora, NYG (0 tackles, 1 QH)
    Umenyiora started the game and there were no reports of him leaving with any type of injury, but he finished with 0 tackles and just 1 QB hit. This was a bit strange considering that he recorded 6 sacks against Donovan McNabb and the Eagles the last time they played each other, while backup DE Justin Tuck finished with 7 solos, 3 QB hits, and a sack of his own. Umenyiora had been playing very well with 12 solos and 4 sacks over his last 3 games so hopefully this was just a fluke occurrence where the Eagles were really focused on not letting him beat them.
  • LB Rocky McIntosh, WAS (0 tackles)
    McIntosh left the game in the first quarter with an injury and didn't return. Unfortunately, an MRI on Monday revealed a torn ACL and MCL. McIntosh will obviously be lost for the rest of this season and may not be fully recovered until the 2009 season. He was having an excellent season at WLB, but this is devastating news for a player with his injury history.
  • LB Channing Crowder, MIA (DNP)
    Crowder has been having a solid season and currently leads the Dolphins in tackles, but he has missed the last two games with a knee injury and will undergo arthroscopic surgery this week, ending his season. Although this injury isn't expected to be too serious, Crowder has a long history of knee problems so this is certainly a concern for Crowder owners in dynasty leagues.
  • LB Antonio Pierce, WAS (4 solos)
    Pierce has averaged about 90 solo tackles/season over the last three years but it looks like he'll come up well short of those numbers this year. Despite playing in all 14 games, he has just 68 solo stops on the season. He's been playing through some injuries in the second half which clearly seem to be limiting him as he had 44 solo stops in his first 7 games and just 24 in the 7 games since then.
  • DB Roy Williams, DAL (7 solos)
    Williams was suspended for 1 game after being flagged for his third ‘horse collar' tackle of the season. Williams was actually the inspiration for this rule being implemented but it doesn't appear to have changed the way he plays. In any event, he won't be able to help fantasy owners during next week's fantasy championships (or semifinals).
  • DB Josh Bullocks, NO (DNP)
    Bullocks apparently suffered a quad injury just prior to last week's Monday night game against the Falcons. The injury limited him in practice and also wound up keeping him out of the Cardinals game this week as he was on the team's inactive list. There were reports that SS Roman Harper was in danger of being benched for Kevin Kaesviharn, but the Bullocks injury has put those issues to rest for the time being.
  • DB Antoine Bethea, IND (DNP)
    Bethea suffered a knee injury last week that kept him out of this week's game. With the Colts having wrapped up the #2 seed in the AFC, it seems unlikely that we'll see Bethea play much again before the playoffs start. If he doesn't wind up playing again until the Colts playoff game after their first round bye, he would have four full weeks of rest.
  • DB George Wilson, BUF (Placed on IR)
    George Wilson is a converted WR who had been doing a good job filling in at FS for Ko Simpson and Jim Leonhard. He suffered two broken ribs in a win over the Dolphins last week and was placed on IR. With Simpson expected to start next season healthy, Wilson will likely have to compete with Leonhard for the backup FS job so his days as a starter could be over for awhile.