Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes - Part 2 - Running Backs

  Posted 8/28 by Andy Hicks, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Introduction

There are many reasons why a player who finished as a fantasy starter the previous season doesn't continue on from that 'success'. This article doesn't look into what happened in season +1 in too much detail, just in 3 specific areas:

1. Players who've changed clubs
2. Players who have a new Head Coach
3. Players who have a new offensive coordinator

Time didn't permit research into why the changes were made, nor does it look at whether coaching vacancies were filled from within or outside the organization. In some cases there is the possibility that the offense under the new face is exactly the same as previous.

Why would a Top 24 fantasy Running Back fail to live up that ranking the following year?

Before we examine the 3 areas I'd like to look at, we must determine what happens without considering any other factors for a Running Back finishing as a fantasy starter over the last 6 years. We'll split them into 2 areas an RB1 (RB1-12) and an RB2 (RB13-24)

Out of the 144 instances in the last 6 years of a back finishing Top 24, 8 did not get a touch the following season due to retirement (Robert Smith, Emmitt Smith and James Stewart), injury (Jamal Lewis, Dominic Rhodes, Ricky Williams and Domanick Davis-Williams) or being cut (Maurice Smith). That leaves 136 players to evaluate.

Explaining the table:

Over the last 6 years an RB1 is almost 50% likely to retain his position as an RB1 and an almost 80% likely to remain at least an RB2 (The first 5 categories listed = 54 players. There were 69 players eligible = 78.26% to be exact). An RB2 has a 42% chance of staying within the top 24 backs (The first 4 categories in the 7-12 area = 28 players. There were 67 players eligible = 41.79 to be exact).

Let's move onto the categories

A) Running backs who move clubs

In the last 6 years we've only had 10 guys finish as a Top 24 back and move clubs the next season. Only 2 of these guys improved, Warrick Dunn after moving from Tampa to Atlanta and Ricky Williams after moving from New Orleans to Miami. Clinton Portis remained a Top 12 back, but dropped fantasy points after moving to Washington. Charlie Garner and Edgerrin James dropped out of the top 12, but remained Top 24 backs after moving clubs. Reuben Droughns remained in the top 24 after moving from Denver to Cleveland. The guys that dropped out of the top 24 tended to be older guys such as Lamar Smith, Eddie George and Mike Anderson. Michael Pittman was the only guy under 28 to drop out after moving clubs. This year we have 4 guys moving clubs, all are 28 or older: Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones and Travis Henry. We don't have enough data in the 6 years to suggest that these guys are all doomed, however in the small sample size we've got only young guys have succeeded.

B) Running Backs who have a new head coach.

Apart from the 10 players in category a), there are 18 other Running Backs in the last 6 years who have had a new Head Coach.

On a pure numbers basis, 9 RB1s had a new coach. 4 improved, which is higher than the normal percentage, but 3 dropped right out of the Top 24 altogether, again a higher percentage. 2 of the players remained consistent.

For the RB2s a whopping 7 of the 9 with new head coaches dropped out of the top 24, but 2 improved massively.

Let's look at them in more detail

The Successes

The same coaching names pop up a couple of times here in Schottenheimer and Edwards, but the most obvious thing here is that all players didn't miss a game. The average age of these players was almost 27, with the eldest being Charlie Garner at 30.

The Failures

The obvious difference between the successes and the failures is that all but 1 on the 2nd list missed time. The average age was almost 28, but there are young guys here in T.J Duckett and Willis McGahee. There is a mix between new and retread coaches in both lists, but about half of these guys were involved in RBBC in both their successful year and the following year. The only other significant point is that the 1st list has an average previous year ranking of 10, whereas the 2nd list has an average previous year ranking of 15. This supports the original observation that RB2s with a new coach are much more likely to fail.

This year we have 5 players that have a new head coach that aren't moving clubs.
LaDainian Tomlinson gets Norv Turner, Willie Parker gets Mike Tomlin, Marion Barber meet Wade Phillips, Edgerrin James - Ken Whisenhunt and Warrick Dunn has Bobby Petrino.

All the information above is good news for LaDainian Tomlinson and Willie Parker, as 2006 RB1s, but it's not so good for Marion Barber, Edgerrin James and Warrick Dunn as RB2s Adding in the slightly older age of the failures Edgerrin James and Warrick Dunn and their lower ranking in 2006, they have it all to do to not fall out of the 24. Warrick Dunn is expected to anyway, but not so James.

C) RBs who have a new offensive coordinator

Again, this is where it gets interesting.

This time we'll differentiate between players who have a new coach (mentioned in category B) and players who have a new offensive coordinator. There are 26 Running Backs who have stayed at the same club, have the same head coach, but a different Offensive Coordinator.

The results are startling.

There were only 5 RB1s that had new offensive coordinators and all regressed.

With a sample size of 5, it's hard to draw concrete conclusions, especially when all but 1 missed time with injury. Dillon & Martin were on the wrong side of 30, Barber was 28, but Taylor and Portis were young men. If we take these players out of the overall table for all RB1s in the last 6 years then the odds of a Top 12 back becoming a top 24 back in the next year moves to well over 80%.

This year we have only 2 RB1s from 2006 with the same head coach, but a new offensive coordinator, Maurice Jones-Drew and Frank Gore. Can they break the spell or are they doomed to join the others as guys who disappointed in the following fantasy season?

Moving onto RB2s

There were 21 RB2s with new offensive coordinators as outlined. 6 remained steady or improved, while 15 regressed.

Only 7 of these guys played every game, but only 5 missed more than 3 games.
5 guys were 28 or older and all regressed in fantasy rankings.

This year we only have 1 RB with a new offensive coordinator and he's also over 28, well over in fact at 31 years of age, another Jacksonville RB in Fred Taylor.

If we take these RB2s out of the original equation the odds of a RB2 remaining in the top 24 increases to almost 50%, much better than the original 42%.

Can we draw any conclusions from this?

Let's crunch the numbers like we did at Quarterback and see where we get.
First of all let's exclude all players from categories a), b) and c). We are left with 82
Running Backs that stayed at the same club, have the same coach and the same offensive coordinator. For Top 12 backs the odds of returning to the top 12 remains constant at just under 50%. The chances of a RB1 remaining at least an RB2, increases from 78.2% to 82.3%. For RB2s, the odds of remaining a top 24 back go from 41.7% to 51.6%.

Now let's keep the category b) players and just exclude a) and c) like we did with quarterbacks. This time we'll have 100 players available to scrutinize. The odds of a Top 12 back becoming a Top 12 back once again jumps from just under 50% to 54.2%. The chances of a RB1 remaining at least an RB2, increases from 78.2% to 81.4%

For RB2s, the odds of remaining a top 24 back go from 41.7% to 43.9%

From this data, the best results are when we separate the data. For RB1s we only include categories a) & c), but for RB2s we use a), b) & c). Obviously just like with the quarterbacks, category b) is still an unknown quantity.

Summarizing

With more data available at RB, than at QB, there is evidence to suggest that moving clubs or a new offensive coordinator with the same head coach is not the best news for continued fantasy success. It's debatable whether a combination of new head coach and new offensive coordinator matters or not. Obviously each situation should be viewed in its own right, but this data is indicating that the players from last years top 24 that fit category a) and c) are Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Travis Henry, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore and Fred Taylor. We'll see how these 7 do in the coming months. The category b) players are LaDainian Tomlinson, Willie Parker, Marion Barber, Edgerrin James and Warrick Dunn, although the last 3 as RB2s are more at risk. The safer options are the remaining RB1s from last year in Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook, Rudi Johnson, Ladell Betts, Joseph Addai and Chester Taylor. Obviously Taylor and Betts are the most obvious concerns.

Special thanks to Mike Herman for the coaching/offensive coordinator data.