Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes - Part 1 - Quarterbacks

  Posted 8/28 by Andy Hicks, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Introduction

There are many reasons why a player who finished as a fantasy starter the previous season doesn't continue on from that 'success'. This article doesn't look into what happened in season +1 in too much detail, just in 3 specific areas:

1. Players who've changed clubs
2. Players who have a new Head Coach
3. Players who have a new offensive coordinator

Time didn't permit research into why the changes were made, nor does it look at whether coaching vacancies were filled from within or outside the organization. In some cases there is the possibility that the offense under the new face is exactly the same as previous.

Why would a Top 12 fantasy Quarterback fail to live up that ranking the following year?

Before we examine the 3 areas I'd like to look at, we must determine what happens without considering anything other than a Quarterback finishing as a fantasy starter over the last 6 years. We'll split them into 2 groups, 1) Top 6 Quarterbacks and 2) Quarterbacks ranked 7th to 12th.

Explaining the table:

Over the last 6 years a Quarterback is about 60% likely to retain his position as a fantasy starter in year+1. If he's finished in the top 6 the previous year he has a 70% chance of retaining fantasy starter status (The first 5 categories listed = 25 players. There were 36 players eligible = 69.44% to be exact). This drops to 44% if he's finished 7th-12th the previous year (The first 3 categories listed in the 7-12 area = 16 players. There were 36 players eligible = 44.44% to be exact)

Let's move onto the categories.

A) Quarterbacks who move clubs

Only 5 Quarterbacks in the last 6 years fit into this category and none of last years top 12 have changed clubs, so I'll be brief. 2 of the 5 players, Steve Beuerlein and Kerry Collins moved clubs and became backups or baby-sitter starters late in their careers. Jeff Garcia and Elvis Grbac moved from dynamic offenses to stinkers in Cleveland and Baltimore respectively. The only success here was Drew Brees who moved from San Diego to New Orleans last year. There's really not enough data in this area to make a conclusion that a Top 12 QB who moves clubs will struggle in the next year, but 4 out of 5 failures is a good start.

B) Quarterbacks who have a new head coach.

Apart from the 5 players in category a), there are 5 other Quarterbacks in the last 6 years who have had a new Head Coach. Of these 5, only Rich Gannon improved fantasy wise with a new coach (Bill Callahan). Peyton Manning & Jeff Garcia didn't do any worse once Tony Dungy and Dennis Erickson were appointed. On the negative side 2 older Quarterbacks took a dive. Vinny Testaverde dropped considerably under Herman Edwards and Herman Edwards pops up again for Trent Green last year, although the concussion that limited Green to 8 appearances probably was a bigger factor in his drop.

This year 3 top 12 QBs from last year have new head coaches, let's forget about Michael Vick as he won't play this year. That leaves 2 younger signal callers in Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger welcoming new head coaches. A sample size of 5 is probably not enough to draw conclusions on. We'll file this away for another year.

C) QBs who have a new offensive coordinator

This is where it gets interesting.

Peyton Manning and Jeff Garcia from category B) kept the same offensive coordinators, so I won't discuss them further.

I'll concentrate instead on Top 12 Quarterbacks from the year before who are at the same club and have a new offensive coordinator over the last 6 years. There are plenty examples of these with 16 in the last 6 years, the 3 heading into this year all have new coaches and as mentioned, Michael Vick is irrelevant for further discussion. That leaves Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers as the only contenders. They also qualify for section B) so will get an escape clause.

Anyway, out of these 16 players, a massive 13 took a backward step fantasy wise. Less than 20% of these examples resulted in more of the same or improvement

Let's look at them in a bit more detail:

Only Rich Gannon (eligible for category B), and Tom Brady in 05 improved their stats, while Jeff Garcia remained consistent in 2001.

Out of the others, 3 lost their jobs, 6 missed 3 or more games & the other 4 regressed.

Can we draw any conclusions from this?

The percentages are bad, but is it bad luck that so many players missed games? Or does learning a new offense lead to the likelihood of a Quarterback getting injured?

There is not evidence to suggest that's a possibility, but it's worth keeping in mind. Roethlisberger and Rivers are young, promising and it's hard to see them failing disastrously, but as can be seen above things don't always work out as planned. Because Roethlisberger and Rivers also have new Head Coaches, they get a leave pass and in future we'll be able to categorize between sections b) and c).

If we take all the 18 guys from categories a) and c) out of the equation altogether (keeping guys who have a new head coach that haven't moved teams), we have 54 guys left for evaluation. The odds of the rest of the top 12 QBs returning moves from 60% to 70%, while the odds of a top 6 QB becoming a top 12 QB in Season + 1 moves from 69.44 % to 76.67%. The guys at 7-12 a year ago see the biggest increase as they move from 44% to a 62.5% chance that they return the next season. With 18 quarterbacks in the 7-12 range previously dropping out of the top 12, we have reduced this to 9 by culling QBs from a) and c). Overall, you'll miss the occasional increase in stats, but on the whole look past top 12 QBs that move clubs or have a new offensive coordinator, but the same head coach. It's just a shame none qualify this year.

Special thanks to Mike Herman for the coaching/offensive coordinator data.