The Life of a Stud - 2007 Edition

  Posted 8/10 by Mike Herman, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

What does the career path of a fantasy football stud look like? When does studliness begin, and when does it end? Are there any not-so-stud-like gaps in the middle? The same types of questions surface every year about the current batch of top fantasy players. A wide variety of factors will determine the answer for each individual player. What follows is a graphic comparison of numerous studs' careers, in hopes of finding any trends or parallels.

What exactly is a fantasy stud? That question could have numerous answers, and could be an entire article in and of itself. For the purpose of this study, I started by looking at all players who had a year end fantasy rank in the top five, going back to 1980. To make the final cut, they had to have an additional top five finish, or the top five plus two top tens. Some quality players probably missed the cut. Some two-year-wonders that may not belong probably made the list, however a player coming off of two strong years will be a candidate for a top pick in fantasy drafts, and thus worth studying.

Following are the results for Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends, showing the fantasy rank for each year of their NFL career. Top five finishes are highlighted in yellow and top tens in green. Active players and their upcoming year (2007) are shown in blue.

Quarterbacks

Quarterback
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Jeff Blake
71
19
4
4
22
44
11
24
85
27
22
58
69
Kurt Warner
69
1
14
1
40
53
29
22
37
Donovan McNabb
37
5
8
13
13
3
20
13
Ken O'Brien
33
3
5
12
18
16
19
10
41
43
Carson Palmer
20
1
5
Aaron Brooks
28
8
5
3
8
16
41
Jeff Garcia
18
2
2
10
12
27
43
32
Marc Bulger
29
6
9
23
3
Daunte Culpepper
73
1
15
1
1
1
33
42
Michael Vick
33
3
39
12
10
4
Trent Green
76
7
23
14
8
3
4
8
36
Drew Bledsoe
16
4
20
6
6
11
8
13
44
5
21
19
6
35
Jim Kelly
4
9
11
9
10
2
5
7
11
13
16
Boomer Esiason
43
6
2
8
4
6
9
14
28
6
15
27
29
27
Tom Brady
72
21
9
11
10
2
7
Doug Williams
28
17
4
4
7
71
27
17
46
Mark Brunell
56
14
3
8
15
13
7
12
21
47
33
14
31
Tommy Kramer
36
60
8
12
5
4
43
27
12
10
41
34
35
67
Neil Lomax
29
20
9
2
11
17
4
6
Steve McNair
42
33
5
4
12
15
7
7
7
32
15
17
Jim Everett
34
21
2
3
4
12
6
27
8
8
23
51
Ken Anderson
28
16
4
1
1
7
10
18
15
30
2
3
24
24
54
61
Randall Cunningham
44
19
1
1
2
1
63
3
37
9
40
43
3
38
39
39
Ron Jaworski
49
41
48
5
13
13
5
13
11
8
15
9
31
58
49
Matt Hasselbeck
66
59
30
19
4
13
5
22
Scott Mitchell
68
68
24
27
2
9
10
56
63
40
87
Jeff George
23
19
26
19
7
7
47
3
38
14
37
60
Phil Simms
23
23
22
61
7
7
8
13
5
15
20
34
35
14
Danny White
51
64
47
45
8
12
5
5
30
10
29
14
54
Brian Sipe
30
42
12
25
8
1
2
10
29
6
Dave Krieg
66
31
34
22
3
4
11
10
21
12
14
23
10
35
24
17
27
79
66
Steve Bartkowski
17
39
32
16
18
3
3
14
7
21
40
42
Joe Theismann
47
58
29
22
11
9
15
7
6
3
6
25
Dan Fouts
26
17
24
11
29
7
4
1
1
1
14
11
8
16
16
Jeff Hostetler
69
68
55
41
34
21
21
3
10
30
8
42
Vinny Testaverde
33
16
14
11
24
14
21
16
19
2
16
5
65
12
25
48
33
16
44
Rich Gannon
74
63
18
15
19
39
58
40
31
18
3
4
4
2
37
45
 
Peyton Manning
9
4
3
3
4
2
2
3
1
Steve Young
35
14
30
36
31
38
7
1
1
1
9
10
9
1
54
Warren Moon
12
18
12
7
13
5
2
1
13
4
6
3
34
7
27
70
53
Joe Montana
52
26
8
2
2
4
1
23
2
9
4
3
56
18
12
John Elway
27
13
5
6
3
8
10
6
5
17
2
5
5
5
4
13
Brett Favre
73
7
5
2
1
1
1
2
6
9
5
11
10
6
13
8
Dan Marino
12
1
2
1
5
3
7
8
3
2
32
3
11
14
11
10
24

The upper 37 players are listed beginning with early starters through late bloomers, so that players with similar career paths are grouped together. The group of seven players at the bottom is the super-stud lifetime achievers. My apologies to any of the players (or their fans) that just missed the arbitrary cut.

Assorted observations and thoughts based on the quarterback "picture" above:

  1. Let's start with who's not on the list. Fifteen players had a top five finish, but didn't make the cut. The first three on this list are still active, so they still have a chance to join.

    Drew Brees Kordell Stewart Ken O'Brien
    Brad Johnson Mark Rypien Tony Eason
    Eli Manning Timm Rosenbach Lynn Dickey
      Don Majkowski Billy Kenney
      Steve Beuerlein Jay Schroeder
      Troy Aikman Jake Plummer

  2. Four out of the 44 players were/are two-year wonders. Jeff Blake is the only one that did so in back-to-back years. Matt Hasselbeck is in the best situation to add a third top ten.
  3. The most common number of top ten finishes is four years (7 out of the 28 that are done playing).
  4. The most top ten finishes: Brett Favre currently has 13. He is followed by John Elway with 12, and Dan Marino with 11.
  5. Only two studs made the top ten in their first year. Jim Kelly was the first; however he made a two-year pit stop in the USFL before playing in the NFL, so he wasn't a true "rookie". Peyton Manning also started out in the top ten, and has never left.
  6. Top ten finishes at the latest point in their career: Dan Marino did so in his 16th season. Brett Favre joined him last year, and will try to take top honors this year in his 17th season.
  7. Most of the players took a break from the top 10 at some point and then returned (23 out of the 28 that are done playing).
  8. The most common slump year appears to be the eighth season. Tom Brady is heading into his eighth year this season.
  9. Unlike running backs, a handful of the late-bloomer QBs had sustained success: Dan Fouts, Steve Young, and Rich Gannon.
  10. Donovan McNabb, Jeff Garcia, Dante Culpepper, and Matt Hasselbeck are all entering their ninth season. Only 13 of 35 studs logged a top ten finish in their ninth year.
  11. Mark Brunell has now gone six consecutive years without a top ten finish. No stud has returned to the top ten after that long of a break. The closest were Ken O'Brien and Dave Krieg who each had a gap of four years between top ten finishes. Jeff Garcia has now been out of the top ten for four years.
  12. Steve McNair enters his 13th season looking to return to the top ten. Only Drew Bledsoe, Randall Cunningham, Dave Krieg, and Dan Fouts were able to do so previously in year thirteen.
  13. Carson Palmer is one of four QBs that finished in the top spot in his second year. If he follows Kurt Warner's career path, he may be close to being done as a stud. If he follows Dante Culpepper's career, he'll have a few more big years before any injury derails him. Of course Palmer already had his injury, and appears to be doing just fine. If he follows Dan Marino's career path, he's just getting started.
  14. Marc Bulger had several top ten finishes before logging his first top five finish last year. Three others did the same: Jeff George, Phil Simms, and Joe Thiesman. None of them managed a second top five in their career.
  15. If Trent Green finishes in the top ten again, he will have done so with three different teams.

Running Backs

Running Back
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Billy Simms
1
1
10
15
25
Joe Cribbs
3
10
17
7
61
27
66
131
Jerome Bettis
2
13
41
7
4
20
16
19
21
31
26
18
36
Fred Taylor
4
28
6
103
11
8
20
33
18
Curt Warner
4
131
17
3
4
10
33
101
Eddie George
8
12
11
3
3
19
10
22
41
Curtis Martin
2
4
14
7
8
10
18
18
4
29
Clinton Portis
4
5
11
6
36
Edgerrin James
1
2
32
24
10
6
5
20
Earl Campbell
2
1
2
12
25
8
55
52
LaDainian Tomlinson
7
3
3
3
3
1
Ottis Anderson
4
5
9
21
10
6
45
69
153
51
6
16
88
117
Marcus Allen
1
6
3
1
17
10
15
60
13
60
46
5
19
24
15
27
Herschel Walker
4
2
3
11
14
8
10
12
21
67
91
86
Terrell Davis
12
2
2
1
77
58
46
Terry Allen
43
4
11
7
1
29
31
17
71
38
William Andrews
21
8
2
3
2
97
Shaun Alexander
54
4
5
6
1
1
28
Larry Johnson
104
26
2
2
Jamal Anderson
146
87
10
10
2
120
22
65
Ricky Williams
27
18
8
2
9
ret
27
Gerald Riggs
26
42
5
5
8
20
52
26
41
37
Ahman Green
82
113
5
3
13
3
13
69
15
Neal Anderson
100
11
5
3
3
7
13
29
Roger Craig
16
11
2
11
7
2
10
48
44
41
70
Chuck Muncie
31
14
30
8
20
3
5
11
120
Earnest Byner
60
11
41
6
22
13
4
6
12
72
64
27
27
67
Joe Morris
91
101
44
3
2
32
18
64
Chris Warren
115
131
17
13
3
4
18
23
45
41
38
Priest Holmes
157
15
44
34
2
2
1
12
32
Wendell Tyler
69
133
12
126
5
2
24
9
27
116
John Riggins
25
14
37
15
5
35
79
16
11
21
27
3
7
38
Tiki Barber
34
44
32
13
15
7
15
2
4
7
 
Thurman Thomas
29
2
2
2
2
3
7
17
11
40
40
88
69
Eric Dickerson
1
2
10
1
3
1
9
32
33
32
103
Marshall Faulk
4
6
17
7
3
2
1
1
14
16
29
53
Ricky Watters
8
4
6
5
3
9
9
9
8
60
Emmitt Smith
7
3
1
1
1
1
6
18
6
5
20
25
26
64
23
Barry Sanders
4
1
1
7
16
2
3
5
1
10
Walter Payton
17
2
1
1
2
4
13
16
5
4
4
5
27

The upper 33 players are listed beginning with early starters through late bloomers, so that players with similar career paths are grouped together. The group of eight players at the bottom is the super-stud lifetime achievers. My apologies to any of the players (or their fans) that just missed the arbitrary cut.

Assorted observations and thoughts based on the running back "picture" above:

  1. Who's not on the list? Twenty-four players had a top five finish, but didn't make the cut. The first five on this list are still active, so they still have a chance to join.

    Jamal Lewis George Rogers Dalton Hilliard Dorsey Levens
    Mike Anderson Napolean Kaufman Christian Okoye Garrison Hearst
    Willie Parker Natrone Means Greg Bell Derrick Fenner
    Steven Jackson Barry Foster Charles White Robert Delpino
    Frank Gore Lorenzo White Albert Bentley Freeman McNeil
      Rodney Hampton James Wilder Stephen Davis
      Dominic Williams    

  2. Joe Morris and Chris Warren were the only two-year wonders. Both did so in back-to-back years in the middle of their career.
  3. The most common number of top ten finishes is three years (12 out of the 33 that are done playing). Second place is four years (7 out of 33).
  4. The most top ten finishes: Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, and Ricky Watters all have nine. The closest active player is LaDainian Tomlinson with six.
  5. Many of the players took a break from the top 10 and then returned (20 out of the 33 that are done playing).
  6. The most common slump year for early starters is the third year. Seven of the eight returned to the top 10 in their fourth year (Edgerrin James being the exception).
  7. The late-bloomers did not have sustained success, i.e. more than three top ten finishes, except for Tiki Barber who had four.
  8. All the lifetime achievers hit the top ten in their first or second year. LaDainian Tomlinson will be eligible for that list with another strong year. Shaun Alexander needs to rebound this year to continue along that path.
  9. Most stud RBs heading into their tenth year haven't done especially well. Ahman Green and Fred Taylor are entering their tenth year.
  10. As long as he doesn't hold out, or get hurt (see Terrell Davis), Larry Johnson should have another top ten year at least. Of course we already knew that.
  11. If Clinton Portis follows Joe Cribbs' career path, the he's done as a top fantasy back. If he follows Curtis Martin or Edgerrin James then he has a few more good years left.
  12. Any review of lifetime achievement usually concludes with imagining what could have been if Barry Sanders hadn't retired?

Wide Receivers

Wide Receiver
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Charlie Brown
3
5
73
62
23
117
John Jefferson
1
4
1
34
35
15
78
110
Randy Moss
1
2
1
5
5
1
19
15
59
Dwight Clark
77
3
14
2
13
18
15
34
50
Mark Duper
113
7
7
45
3
18
50
47
29
13
16
Lynn Swann
59
3
34
6
5
23
25
42
59
Ernest Givens
13
9
16
35
4
15
6
22
68
85
Wesley Walker
15
3
35
66
18
5
14
29
34
5
91
34
127
Andre Rison
31
2
7
4
2
12
45
55
15
50
107
43
Mike Quick
75
1
9
2
12
5
48
84
101
Mark Clayton
96
1
17
4
12
3
16
68
6
49
68
Anthony Miller
47
5
11
43
5
7
15
10
43
46
Isaac Bruce
75
2
8
31
73
6
6
17
16
18
12
58
25
Torry Holt
35
7
8
15
2
7
6
6
Gary Clark
19
6
3
15
7
3
3
12
31
51
67
Sterling Sharpe
40
2
8
22
1
3
2
Eric Moulds
78
83
4
23
14
33
4
45
26
35
68
Antonio Freeman
119
16
2
2
20
18
35
57
122
Chad Johnson
78
18
3
9
4
4
Carl Pickens
84
37
7
6
3
38
19
39
100
Steve Watson
99
90
2
14
9
8
21
35
93
Rod Smith
109
89
3
12
29
4
4
22
25
15
16
61
Tony Hill
100
11
5
2
23
19
17
20
8
33
Joey Galloway
14
13
5
9
82
124
43
26
48
55
5
15
Stanley Morgan
36
14
2
8
12
10
26
31
31
2
32
49
54
58
Terrell Owens
57
20
3
47
3
2
2
12
4
32
2
Harold Carmichael
60
47
1
6
16
26
7
4
8
12
13
9
45
127
James Lofton
12
21
4
4
4
4
5
12
28
14
63
87
38
9
19
98
Carlos Carson
93
84
18
3
16
28
50
4
38
113
Donald Driver
130
78
91
10
51
10
13
5
Wes Chandler
51
11
13
7
1
18
27
3
27
41
126
Herman Moore
113
14
13
6
3
6
7
23
93
64
135
Michael Irvin
37
69
54
2
3
4
11
7
37
9
37
91
John Stallworth
62
37
60
4
7
6
77
11
6
116
3
18
64
45
Hines Ward
96
44
44
29
3
6
28
10
22
Roy Green
108
117
27
16
2
2
36
36
21
9
27
34
86
118
Andre Reed
40
24
19
12
4
9
4
18
16
4
76
18
27
40
Joe Horn
145
131
98
49
9
7
9
14
3
56
42
Ahmad Rashad
28
32
25
23
23
9
3
6
19
71
Jimmy Smith
152
156
84
11
11
10
4
12
6
19
30
21
19
Drew Hill
89
56
60
96
56
4
14
7
6
20
14
14
47
79
Henry Ellard
92
32
27
54
22
1
6
5
19
34
27
8
25
33
55
124
Tim Brown
26
139
75
41
20
6
5
9
10
8
15
11
11
9
39
64
106
Irving Fryar
94
23
22
34
42
51
30
21
25
11
9
21
5
10
58
88
50
 
Marvin Harrison
21
25
31
1
2
1
1
5
5
8
1
Cris Carter
96
28
24
67
18
22
5
10
4
7
4
7
3
10
32
129
Steve Largent
19
5
2
1
5
3
13
6
4
5
8
6
45
59
Jerry Rice
22
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
4
119
8
38
25
10
11
37
65

The upper 44 players are listed beginning with early starters through late bloomers, so that players with similar career paths are grouped together. The group of four players at the bottom is the super-stud lifetime achievers. My apologies to any of the players (or their fans) that just missed the arbitrary cut.

Assorted observations and thoughts based on the wide receiver "picture" above:

  1. Who's not on the list? Twenty-five players had a top five finish, but didn't make the cut. The first eleven on this list are still active, so they still have a chance to become a stud.

    Marcus Robinson Derrick Alexander Michael Jackson
    David Boston Rob Moore Tony Martin
    Hines Ward Robert Brooks Terance Mathis
    Reggie Wayne Michael Haynes Mark Carrier
    Anquan Boldin Ricky Sanders Eddie Brown
    Muhsin Muhammad J.T. Smith Louis Lipps
    Javon Walker Alfred Jenkins Kevin House
    Keyshawn Johnson    
    Steve Smith    
    Larry Fitzgerald    
    Santana Moss    

  2. Charlie Brown and Antonio Freeman were the only back-to-back two-year wonders. Dwight Clark and Carlos Carson also had only two stud seasons, but in nonconsecutive years. Eric Moulds is also currently in that category.
  3. The most common number of top ten finishes is three years (14 out of the 36 that are done playing). Second place is four years (8 out of 36).
  4. Like Charlie Brown and John Jefferson, Randy Moss made the top five as a rookie; however he was able to sustain that success much longer.
  5. The popular theory is that many wide receivers "break out" in their third year. It appears that more stud receivers tend to break out in their second year. The other end of the spectrum is Irving Fryar. He came close to breaking out in his tenth year, and then finally did in his eleventh season.
  6. Old guy Rod Smith enters his 13th season and Isaac Bruce enters his 14th, and both have gone at least five years without a top ten finish. A return to the top ten after a lengthy absence however, is not unprecedented. James Lofton and Joey Galloway both did it after a six year gap.
  7. Most of the players took a break from the top 10 and then returned (28 out of the 36 that are done playing).
  8. The most common years for players to drop out of the top ten are their seventh or eighth season. Chad Johnson is entering his seventh year.
  9. Eric Moulds, Joe Horn, Terrell Owens, and Marvin Harrison are all entering their 12th year. Based solely on looking at similar career paths, it looks like Moulds and Horn will not return to the top ten, Owens might, and Harrison definitely will.
  10. Donald Driver is hoping to repeat where Carlos Carson and Wes Chandler did not.
  11. Can Hines Ward beat Roy Green to the punch twice?
  12. What Jerry Rice did was truly amazing...but we already knew that.

Tight Ends

Tight End
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Jeremy Shockey
3
11
6
2
7
Randy McMichael
9
8
5
8
11
Russ Francis
1
12
13
8
8
2
12
18
29
16
13
39
34
Eric Green
6
3
23
2
6
12
28
6
25
49
Chris Cooley
14
4
5
Antonio Gates
18
1
1
1
Johnny Mitchell
24
4
5
9
66
94
Marv Cook
65
8
1
10
32
29
39
Dan Ross
16
6
4
5
12
43
40
Rickey Dudley
12
3
5
3
13
55
27
65
83
Bubba Franks
22
6
4
20
10
35
41
Todd Heap
35
1
3
23
3
4
Freddie Jones
11
9
5
3
13
24
9
17
Alge Crumpler
18
8
6
4
5
2
Paul Coffman
56
6
14
8
11
3
5
6
41
51
Mark Bavaro
13
2
1
4
13
9
16
9
19
Tony McGee
15
11
5
8
9
26
18
25
42
30
Jackie Harris
34
11
5
8
13
8
18
34
19
26
12
36
Mark Chmura
62
36
2
20
8
8
74
Mike Barber
60
34
9
18
5
31
24
7
68
63
Jimmie Giles
35
18
4
9
6
7
24
27
3
11
36
43
24
Hoby Brenner
38
31
9
8
9
29
16
51
5
20
34
32
29
Brent Jones
65
33
3
1
13
3
6
3
10
14
18
Doug Cosbie
48
47
16
6
5
7
4
22
8
45
Frank Wycheck
48
43
15
5
5
4
6
6
5
20
34
Jay Novacek
70
62
14
6
30
3
4
1
16
12
3
Rodney Holman
44
68
34
8
9
9
9
1
4
9
18
20
38
60
Marcus Pollard
73
36
52
18
10
11
2
6
7
15
14
64
Wesley Walls
57
56
64
70
8
6
2
4
7
1
14
12
19
35
Mickey Shuler
30
20
28
61
17
33
4
2
6
5
2
25
29
50
 
Ozzie Newsome
5
1
11
3
3
4
2
7
12
18
14
19
18
Keith Jackson
1
2
2
5
2
5
4
37
4
Kellen Winslow
21
1
1
1
2
12
38
4
4
Tony Gonzalez
19
10
2
1
1
2
1
2
7
3
Ben Coates
38
20
3
1
1
3
2
3
17
61
Dave Casper
28
34
1
3
1
5
4
7
2
39
51
Todd Christensen
58
55
32
4
1
1
1
1
3
31
Steve Jordan
49
32
22
12
3
6
3
4
5
6
12
10
56
Shannon Sharpe
33
15
4
1
2
4
1
1
1
38
2
3
5
2

The upper 30 players are listed beginning with early starters through late bloomers, so that players with similar career paths are grouped together. The group of nine players at the bottom is the super-stud lifetime achievers. My apologies to any of the players (or their fans) that just missed the arbitrary cut.

Assorted observations and thoughts based on the tight end "picture" above:

  1. Who's not on the list? Twenty-five players had a top five finish, but didn't make the cut. The first seven on this list are still active, so they still have a chance to become a stud.

    Kyle Brady David Sloan Derrick Ramsey
    Jason Witten Cam Cleeland Joe Senser
    Boo Williams Ethan Horton Don Hasselbeck
    Itula Mili Pete Holohan Junior Miller
    Desmond Clark Rob Awalt John Spagnola
    Chad Lewis Clint Didier  

  2. Tight end is the only position without a single two-year wonder, unless something drastic happens to Chris Cooley.
  3. The most common number of top ten finishes is three years (8 out of the 30 that are done playing). Second place is five years (7 out of 30).
  4. Randy McMichael and Jeremy Shockey were both one 11th place finish away from ranking in the top ten their first five years in the league.. That puts them in the company of Keith Jackson and Ozzie Newsome respectively.
  5. Just like wide receiver, it appears that more stud tight ends tend to break out in their second year. Fourteen of the tight ends entered the top ten in year two.
  6. Tight end is the least likely position for a player to return to the top ten after a lengthy absence. Hoby Brenner had the largest break, and that was only three years. That doesn't bode well for Marcus Pollard and Bubba Franks.
  7. Sixty percent of the tights ends took a break from the top 10 and then returned (18 out of the 30 that are done playing).
  8. The most common years for players to drop out of the top ten are their fifth season. Antonio Gates is entering year five.
  9. Entering year seven, Todd Heap and Alge Crumpler are both coming off top five finishes. History is on their side. Of the previous players in that same scenario, one dropped out of the top ten, two slipped into the sixth-to-tenth category; however nine repeated as top fivers.
  10. Tony Gonzalez is currently second with nine top ten finishes. He'll need two more to catch up to Shannon Sharpe's 11 top tens.
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