The Life of a Stud - 2007 Edition

  Posted 8/10 by Mike Herman, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

What does the career path of a fantasy football stud look like? When does studliness begin, and when does it end? Are there any not-so-stud-like gaps in the middle? The same types of questions surface every year about the current batch of top fantasy players. A wide variety of factors will determine the answer for each individual player. What follows is a graphic comparison of numerous studs' careers, in hopes of finding any trends or parallels.

What exactly is a fantasy stud? That question could have numerous answers, and could be an entire article in and of itself. For the purpose of this study, I started by looking at all players who had a year end fantasy rank in the top five, going back to 1980. To make the final cut, they had to have an additional top five finish, or the top five plus two top tens. Some quality players probably missed the cut. Some two-year-wonders that may not belong probably made the list, however a player coming off of two strong years will be a candidate for a top pick in fantasy drafts, and thus worth studying.

Following are the results for Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends, showing the fantasy rank for each year of their NFL career. Top five finishes are highlighted in yellow and top tens in green. Active players and their upcoming year (2007) are shown in blue.

Quarterbacks

Quarterback
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Jeff Blake
71
19
4
4
22
44
11
24
85
27
22
58
69
Kurt Warner
69
1
14
1
40
53
29
22
37
Donovan McNabb
37
5
8
13
13
3
20
13
Ken O'Brien
33
3
5
12
18
16
19
10
41
43
Carson Palmer
20
1
5
Aaron Brooks
28
8
5
3
8
16
41
Jeff Garcia
18
2
2
10
12
27
43
32
Marc Bulger
29
6
9
23
3
Daunte Culpepper
73
1
15
1
1
1
33
42
Michael Vick
33
3
39
12
10
4
Trent Green
76
7
23
14
8
3
4
8
36
Drew Bledsoe
16
4
20
6
6
11
8
13
44
5
21
19
6
35
Jim Kelly
4
9
11
9
10
2
5
7
11
13
16
Boomer Esiason
43
6
2
8
4
6
9
14
28
6
15
27
29
27
Tom Brady
72
21
9
11
10
2
7
Doug Williams
28
17
4
4
7
71
27
17
46
Mark Brunell
56
14
3
8
15
13
7
12
21
47
33
14
31
Tommy Kramer
36
60
8
12
5
4
43
27
12
10
41
34
35
67
Neil Lomax
29
20
9
2
11
17
4
6
Steve McNair
42
33
5
4
12
15
7
7
7
32
15
17
Jim Everett
34
21
2
3
4
12
6
27
8
8
23
51
Ken Anderson
28
16
4
1
1
7
10
18
15
30
2
3
24
24
54
61
Randall Cunningham
44
19
1
1
2
1
63
3
37
9
40
43
3
38
39
39
Ron Jaworski
49
41
48
5
13
13
5
13
11
8
15
9
31
58
49
Matt Hasselbeck
66
59
30
19
4
13
5
22
Scott Mitchell
68
68
24
27
2
9
10
56
63
40
87
Jeff George
23
19
26
19
7
7
47
3
38
14
37
60
Phil Simms
23
23
22
61
7
7
8
13
5
15
20
34
35
14
Danny White
51
64
47
45
8
12
5
5
30
10
29
14
54
Brian Sipe
30
42
12
25
8
1
2
10
29
6
Dave Krieg
66
31
34
22
3
4
11
10
21
12
14
23
10
35
24
17
27
79
66
Steve Bartkowski
17
39
32
16
18
3
3
14
7
21
40
42
Joe Theismann
47
58
29
22
11
9
15
7
6
3
6
25
Dan Fouts
26
17
24
11
29
7
4
1
1
1
14
11
8
16
16
Jeff Hostetler
69
68
55
41
34
21
21
3
10
30
8
42
Vinny Testaverde
33
16
14
11
24
14
21
16
19
2
16
5
65
12
25
48
33
16
44
Rich Gannon
74
63
18
15
19
39
58
40
31
18
3
4
4
2
37
45
 
Peyton Manning
9
4
3
3
4
2
2
3
1
Steve Young
35
14
30
36
31
38
7
1
1
1
9
10
9
1
54
Warren Moon
12
18
12
7
13
5
2
1
13
4
6
3
34
7
27
70
53
Joe Montana
52
26
8
2
2
4
1
23
2
9
4
3
56
18
12
John Elway
27
13
5
6
3
8
10
6
5
17
2
5
5
5
4
13
Brett Favre
73
7
5
2
1
1
1
2
6
9
5
11
10
6
13
8
Dan Marino
12
1
2
1
5
3
7
8
3
2
32
3
11
14
11
10
24

The upper 37 players are listed beginning with early starters through late bloomers, so that players with similar career paths are grouped together. The group of seven players at the bottom is the super-stud lifetime achievers. My apologies to any of the players (or their fans) that just missed the arbitrary cut.

Assorted observations and thoughts based on the quarterback "picture" above:

  1. Let's start with who's not on the list. Fifteen players had a top five finish, but didn't make the cut. The first three on this list are still active, so they still have a chance to join.

    Drew Brees Kordell Stewart Ken O'Brien
    Brad Johnson Mark Rypien Tony Eason
    Eli Manning Timm Rosenbach Lynn Dickey
      Don Majkowski Billy Kenney
      Steve Beuerlein Jay Schroeder
      Troy Aikman Jake Plummer

  2. Four out of the 44 players were/are two-year wonders. Jeff Blake is the only one that did so in back-to-back years. Matt Hasselbeck is in the best situation to add a third top ten.
  3. The most common number of top ten finishes is four years (7 out of the 28 that are done playing).
  4. The most top ten finishes: Brett Favre currently has 13. He is followed by John Elway with 12, and Dan Marino with 11.
  5. Only two studs made the top ten in their first year. Jim Kelly was the first; however he made a two-year pit stop in the USFL before playing in the NFL, so he wasn't a true "rookie". Peyton Manning also started out in the top ten, and has never left.
  6. Top ten finishes at the latest point in their career: Dan Marino did so in his 16th season. Brett Favre joined him last year, and will try to take top honors this year in his 17th season.
  7. Most of the players took a break from the top 10 at some point and then returned (23 out of the 28 that are done playing).
  8. The most common slump year appears to be the eighth season. Tom Brady is heading into his eighth year this season.
  9. Unlike running backs, a handful of the late-bloomer QBs had sustained success: Dan Fouts, Steve Young, and Rich Gannon.
  10. Donovan McNabb, Jeff Garcia, Dante Culpepper, and Matt Hasselbeck are all entering their ninth season. Only 13 of 35 studs logged a top ten finish in their ninth year.
  11. Mark Brunell has now gone six consecutive years without a top ten finish. No stud has returned to the top ten after that long of a break. The closest were Ken O'Brien and Dave Krieg who each had a gap of four years between top ten finishes. Jeff Garcia has now been out of the top ten for four years.
  12. Steve McNair enters his 13th season looking to return to the top ten. Only Drew Bledsoe, Randall Cunningham, Dave Krieg, and Dan Fouts were able to do so previously in year thirteen.
  13. Carson Palmer is one of four QBs that finished in the top spot in his second year. If he follows Kurt Warner's career path, he may be close to being done as a stud. If he follows Dante Culpepper's career, he'll have a few more big years before any injury derails him. Of course Palmer already had his injury, and appears to be doing just fine. If he follows Dan Marino's career path, he's just getting started.
  14. Marc Bulger had several top ten finishes before logging his first top five finish last year. Three others did the same: Jeff George, Phil Simms, and Joe Thiesman. None of them managed a second top five in their career.
  15. If Trent Green finishes in the top ten again, he will have done so with three different teams.

Running Backs

Running Back
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Billy Simms
1
1
10
15
25
Joe Cribbs
3
10
17
7
61
27
66
131
Jerome Bettis
2
13
41
7
4
20
16
19
21
31
26
18
36
Fred Taylor
4
28
6
103
11
8
20
33
18
Curt Warner
4
131
17
3
4
10
33
101
Eddie George
8
12
11
3
3
19
10
22
41
Curtis Martin
2
4
14
7
8
10
18
18
4
29
Clinton Portis
4
5
11
6
36
Edgerrin James
1
2
32
24
10
6
5
20
Earl Campbell
2
1
2
12
25
8
55
52
LaDainian Tomlinson
7
3
3
3
3
1
Ottis Anderson
4
5
9
21
10
6
45
69
153
51
6
16
88
117
Marcus Allen
1
6
3
1
17
10
15
60
13
60
46
5
19
24
15
27
Herschel Walker
4
2
3
11
14
8
10
12
21
67
91
86
Terrell Davis
12
2
2
1
77
58
46
Terry Allen
43
4
11
7
1
29
31
17
71
38
William Andrews
21
8
2
3
2
97
Shaun Alexander
54
4
5
6
1
1
28
Larry Johnson
104
26
2
2
Jamal Anderson
146
87
10
10
2
120
22
65
Ricky Williams
27
18
8
2
9
ret
27
Gerald Riggs
26
42
5
5
8
20
52
26
41
37
Ahman Green
82
113
5
3
13
3
13
69
15
Neal Anderson
100
11
5
3
3
7
13
29
Roger Craig
16
11
2
11
7
2
10
48
44
41
70
Chuck Muncie
31
14
30
8
20
3
5
11
120
Earnest Byner
60
11
41
6
22
13
4
6
12
72
64
27
27
67
Joe Morris
91
101
44
3
2
32
18
64
Chris Warren
115
131
17
13
3
4
18
23
45
41
38
Priest Holmes
157
15
44
34
2
2
1
12
32
Wendell Tyler
69
133
12
126
5
2
24
9
27
116
John Riggins
25
14
37
15
5
35
79
16
11
21
27
3
7
38
Tiki Barber
34
44
32
13
15
7
15
2
4
7
 
Thurman Thomas
29
2
2
2
2
3
7
17
11
40
40
88
69
Eric Dickerson
1
2
10
1
3
1
9
32
33
32
103
Marshall Faulk
4
6
17
7
3
2
1
1
14
16
29
53
Ricky Watters
8
4
6
5
3
9
9
9
8
60
Emmitt Smith
7
3
1
1
1
1
6
18
6
5
20
25
26
64
23
Barry Sanders
4
1
1
7
16
2
3
5
1
10
Walter Payton
17
2
1
1
2
4
13
16
5
4
4
5
27

The upper 33 players are listed beginning with early starters through late bloomers, so that players with similar career paths are grouped together. The group of eight players at the bottom is the super-stud lifetime achievers. My apologies to any of the players (or their fans) that just missed the arbitrary cut.

Assorted observations and thoughts b