Running Back Rushing TDs & the Year After

Posted 8/19 by Jeff Haseley, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Over the last five years (2002-2006) a running back has scored at least 3 TDs or more in a season exactly 200 times. This study will examine how productive or unproductive running backs as a whole fared the year after or statistically speaking (N+1). The results are somewhat surprising and may steer your opinion regarding future production for running backs this year and in the future.

Overall

Over the last five years, dating back to the 2002 season, 200 running backs have scored at least 3 TDs in a season. Sixty-three of the 200 RBs either achieved those stats in 2006 thus we don't know the results for 2007 yet, or they simply did not have any stats the year after due to injury, suspension or retirement. This brings the total down to 137 RBs that had stats the year after. Only 35 of those 137 RBs had an increase in rushing TD totals the year after or 25.5% or 1 in 4.

The cast of 35 RBs that increased their rushing TD totals the year after (some did it more than once):

Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson (3), Shaun Alexander (2), Corey Dillon, Edgerrin James, Larry Johnson, Rudi Johnson, Deuce McAllister, Domanick Williams, Steven Jackson (2), Marshall Faulk, Jerome Bettis, Thomas Jones, Steven Davis, Brandon Jacobs, Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis, Kevan Barlow (3), Willis McGahee, Marion Barber, Clinton Portis, Kevin Jones, Anthony Thomas, Ronnie Brown, Dominic Rhodes, Willie Parker, T.J. Duckett, Dorsey Levens, Antowain Smith

Breakdown by year

2002-2003: Forty-one RBs had 3+ TDs in 2002. 4 RBs retired, were suspended or were injured for the 2003 season. Only 8 of those RBs who had stats the next year increased their rushing TD totals. 8 of 37 is 21.6%

RBs (8) who increased: Priest Holmes +6, Marshall Faulk +2, Steven Davis +1, Ahman Green +8, Jamal Lewis +8, Anthony Thomas +1, Kevan Barlow +2, T.J. Duckett +7

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2002	Holmes, P	KC	21	2003	27	6
2002	Alexander, S	SEA	16	2003	14	-2
2002	Williams, R	NO	16	2003	9	-7
2002	Portis, C	DEN	15	2003	14	-1
2002	Tomlinson, L	SD	14	2003	13	-1
2002	McAllister, D	NO	13	2003	8	-5
2002	Henry, T	BUF	13	2003	10	-3
2002	George, E	TEN	12	2003	5	-7
2002	Barber, T	NYG	11	2003	2	-9
2002	Williams, Moe	MIN	11	2003	5	-6
2002	Mack, S	JAC	9	2003	4	-5
2002	Bettis, J	PIT	9	2003	7	-2
2002	Taylor, F	JAC	8	2003	6	-2
2002	Hearst, G	SF	8	2003	3	-5
2002	Crockett, Z	OAK	8	2003	7	-1
2002	Mungro, J	IND	8	2003	2	-6
2002	Faulk, M	STL	8	2003	10	2
2002	Dillon, C	CIN	7	2003	2	-5
2002	Martin, C	NYJ	7	2003	2	-5
2002	Davis, S	WAS	7	2003	8	1
2002	Smith, L	CAR	7	2003	0	-7
2002	Garner, C	OAK	7	2003	3	-4
2002	Dunn, W	ATL	7	2003	3	-4
2002	Green, A	GB	7	2003	15	8
2002	Shipp, M	ARI	6	2003	0	-6
2002	Smith, A	NE	6	2003	3	-3
2002	Lewis, J	BAL	6	2003	14	8
2002	Green, W	CLE	6	2003	1	-5
2002	Smith, E	DAL	5	2003	2	-3
2002	Bennett, M	MIN	5	2003	1	-4
2002	Staley, D	PHI	5	2003	5	0
2002	Alstott, M	TB	5	2003	2	-3
2002	Thomas, A	CHI	5	2003	6	1
2002	Barlow, K	SF	4	2003	6	2
2002	Stewart, J	DET	4	2003	ret.	ret.
2002	Brown, D	CAR	4	2003	na	NA
2002	Zereoue, A	PIT	4	2003	2	-2
2002	Duckett, T.J.	ATL	4	2003	11	7
2002	Dayne, R	NYG	3	2003	NA	NA
2002	Christian, B	ATL	3	2003	ret.	ret.
2002	Wells, J	HOU	3	2003	0	-3

Average change from 2002-2003: -2.1

2003-2004: Thirty-eight RBs had 3+ TDs in 2003. 3 RBs retired, were suspended or were injured for the 2004 season. Only 9 of those RBs who had stats the next year increased their rushing TD totals. 9 of 35 is 25.7%

RBs (9) who increased: Shaun Alexander +2, LaDainian Tomlinson +4, Rudi Johnson +3, Deuce McAllister +1, Domanick Williams +5, Jerome Bettis +6, Kevan Barlow +1, Dorsey Levens +1, Antowain Smith +1

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2003	Holmes, P	KC	27	2004	14	-13
2003	Green, A	GB	15	2004	7	-8
2003	Lewis, J	BAL	14	2004	7	-7
2003	Portis, C	DEN	14	2004	5	-9
2003	Alexander, S	SEA	14	2004	16	2
2003	Tomlinson, L	SD	13	2004	17	4
2003	James, E	IND	11	2004	9	-2
2003	Henry, T	BUF	10	2004	0	-10
2003	Faulk, M	STL	10	2004	3	-7
2003	Duckett, T.J.	ATL	10	2004	8	-2
2003	Williams, R	MIA	9	2004	susp	susp
2003	Johnson, R	CIN	9	2004	12	3
2003	McAllister, D	NO	8	2004	9	1
2003	Davis, S	CAR	8	2004	0	-8
2003	Williams, Dom	HOU	8	2004	13	5
2003	Buckhalter, C	PHI	8	2004	0	-8
2003	Bettis, J	PIT	7	2004	13	6
2003	Crockett, Z	OAK	7	2004	2	-5
2003	Westbrook, B	PHI	7	2004	3	-4
2003	Thomas, A	CHI	6	2004	2	-4
2003	Taylor, F	JAC	6	2004	2	-4
2003	Barlow, K	SF	6	2004	7	1
2003	Staley, D	PHI	5	2004	1	-4
2003	George, E	TEN	5	2004	4	-1
2003	Hambrick, T	DAL	5	2004	1	-4
2003	Smith, O	MIN	5	2004	2	-3
2003	Cloud, M	NE	5	2004	3	-2
2003	Williams, M	MIN	5	2004	3	-2
2003	Harris, A	STL	4	2004	0	-4
2003	Jordan, L	NYJ	4	2004	2	-2
2003	Wheatley, T	OAK	4	2004	4	0
2003	Cartwright, R	WAS	4	2004	NA	NA
2003	Mack, S	HOU	4	2004	NA	NA
2003	Hearst, G	SF	3	2004	1	-2
2003	Levens, D	NYG	3	2004	4	1
2003	Bryson, S	DET	3	2004	0	-3
2003	Jackson, J	CLE	3	2004	0	-3
2003	Smith, A	NE	3	2004	4	1

Average change from 2003-2004: -2.7

2004-2005: Thirty-five RBs had 3+ TDs in 2004. 5 RBs retired, were suspended or were injured for the 2005 season. Only 7 of those RBs who had stats the next year increased their rushing TD totals. 7 of 30 is 23.3%

RBs (7) who increased: LaDainian Tomlinson +1, Shaun Alexander +11, Edgerrin James +4, Larry Johnson +11, Thomas Jones +2, Clinton Portis +6, Steven Jackson +4

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2004	Tomlinson, L	SD	17	2005	18	1
2004	Alexander, S	SEA	16	2005	27	11
2004	Holmes, P	KC	14	2005	6	-8
2004	Williams, Dom	HOU	13	2005	2	-11
2004	McGahee, W	BUF	13	2005	5	-8
2004	Barber, T	NYG	13	2005	9	-4
2004	Bettis, J	PIT	13	2005	9	-4
2004	Dillon, C	CIN	12	2005	12	0
2004	Johnson, R	CIN	12	2005	12	0
2004	Martin, C	NYJ	12	2005	5	-7
2004	Dunn, W	ATL	9	2005	3	-6
2004	James, E	IND	9	2005	13	4
2004	Johnson, L	KC	9	2005	20	11
2004	McAllister, D	NO	9	2005	3	-6
2004	Smith, E	ARI	9	2005	ret.	ret.
2004	Duckett, T.J.	ATL	8	2005	8	0
2004	Blaylock, D	KC	8	2005	0	-8
2004	Jones, J	DAL	7	2005	5	-2
2004	Pittman, M	TB	7	2005	1	-6
2004	Jones, T	CHI	7	2005	9	2
2004	Lewis, J	BAL	7	2005	3	-4
2004	Green, A	GB	7	2005	0	-7
2004	Barlow, K	SF	7	2005	3	-4
2004	Morris, S	MIA	6	2005	1	-5
2004	Droughns, R	DEN	6	2005	2	-4
2004	Brown, C	TEN	6	2005	5	-1
2004	Goings, N	CAR	6	2005	0	-6
2004	Jones, K	DET	5	2005	5	0
2004	Portis, C	WAS	5	2005	11	6
2004	Smith, A	TEN	4	2005	3	-1
2004	George, E	TEN	4	2005	ret.	ret.
2004	Wheatley, T	OAK	4	2005	ret.	ret.
2004	Jackson, S	STL	4	2005	8	4
2004	Levens, D	PHI	4	2005	ret.	ret.
2004	Chatman, J	SD	3	2005	NA	NA
2004	Ayanbadejo, O	ARI	3	2005	0	-3
2004	Minor, T	MIA	3	2005	0	-3

Average change from 2004-2005: -2.1

2005-2006: Forty-two RBs had 3+ TDs in 2005. 11 RBs retired, were suspended or were injured for the 2006 season. Only 11 of those RBs who had stats the next year increased their rushing TD totals. 11 of 31 is 35.4%

RBs (11) who increased: LaDainian Tomlinson +10, Corey Dillon +1, Steven Jackson +5, Brandon Jacobs +2, Willis McGahee +1, Marion Barber +9, Kevin Jones +1, Ronnie Brown +1, Dominic Rhodes +1, Willie Parker +9, Kevan Barlow +3

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2005	Alexander, S	SEA	27	2006	7	-20
2005	Johnson, L	KC	20	2006	17	-3
2005	Tomlinson, L	SD	18	2006	28	10
2005	James, E	IND	13	2006	6	-7
2005	Anderson, M	DEN	12	2006	1	-11
2005	Dillon, C	CIN	12	2006	13	1
2005	Johnson, R	CIN	12	2006	12	0
2005	Davis, S	CAR	12	2006	0	-12
2005	Portis, C	WAS	11	2006	7	-4
2005	Barber, T	NYG	9	2006	5	-4
2005	Bettis, J	PIT	9	2006	ret.	ret.
2005	Jordan, L	OAK	9	2006	2	-7
2005	Jones, T	CHI	9	2006	6	-3
2005	Duckett, T.J.	ATL	8	2006	2	-6
2005	Jackson, S	STL	8	2006	13	5
2005	Bell, T	DEN	8	2006	2	-6
2005	Jacobs, B	NYG	7	2006	9	2
2005	Gado, S	GB	6	2006	0	-6
2005	Alstott, M	TB	6	2006	3	-3
2005	Williams, C	TB	6	2006	1	-5
2005	Williams, R	MIA	6	2006	susp	susp
2005	Holmes, P	KC	6	2006	NA	NA
2005	McGahee, W	BUF	5	2006	6	1
2005	Brown, C	TEN	5	2006	0	-5
2005	Jones, J	DAL	5	2006	4	-1
2005	Martin, C	NYJ	5	2006	NA	NA
2005	Barber, M	DAL	5	2006	14	9
2005	Jones, K	DET	5	2006	6	1
2005	Brown, R	MIA	4	2006	5	1
2005	Faison, C	MIN	4	2006	1	-3
2005	Rhodes, D	IND	4	2006	5	1
2005	Wells, J	HOU	4	2006	NA	NA
2005	Parker, W	PIT	4	2006	13	9
2005	Toefield, L	JAC	4	2006	NA	NA
2005	Jones, G	JAC	4	2006	NA	NA
2005	Pass, P	NE	3	2006	0	-3
2005	Dunn, W	ATL	3	2006	NA	NA
2005	Moats, R	PHI	3	2006	NA	NA
2005	Taylor, F	JAC	3	2006	NA	NA
2005	Westbrook, B	PHI	3	2006	NA	NA
2005	Barlow, K	SF	3	2006	6	3
2005	Hicks, M	SF	3	2006	0	-3

Average change from 2005-2006: -2.1

2006-2007: 42 RBs had 3+ TDs in 2006.

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2006	Tomlinson, L	SD	28	2007	NA	NA
2006	Johnson, L	KC	17	2007	NA	NA
2006	Barber, M	DAL	14	2007	NA	NA
2006	Dillon, C	NE	13	2007	NA	NA
2006	Parker, W	PIT	13	2007	NA	NA
2006	Jones-Drew, M	JAC	13	2007	NA	NA
2006	Jackson, S	STL	13	2007	NA	NA
2006	Johnson, R	CIN	12	2007	NA	NA
2006	McAllister, D	NO	10	2007	NA	NA
2006	Lewis, J	BAL	9	2007	NA	NA
2006	Jacobs, B	NYG	9	2007	NA	NA
2006	Gore, F	SF	8	2007	NA	NA
2006	Bell, M	DEN	8	2007	NA	NA
2006	Henry, T	TEN	7	2007	NA	NA
2006	Addai, J	IND	7	2007	NA	NA
2006	Westbrook, B	PHI	7	2007	NA	NA
2006	Portis, C	WAS	7	2007	NA	NA
2006	Alexander, S	SEA	7	2007	NA	NA
2006	Jones, K	DET	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	McGahee, W	BUF	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Taylor, C	MIN	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	James, E	ARI	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Barlow, K	NYJ	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Benson, C	CHI	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Maroney, L	NE	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Bush, R	NO	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Jones, T	CHI	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Brown, R	MIA	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Green, A	GB	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Rhodes, D	IND	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Taylor, F	JAC	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Houston, C	NYJ	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Dayne, R	HOU	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Barber, T	NYG	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Dunn, W	ATL	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Betts, L	WAS	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Droughns, R	CLE	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Lundi, W	HOU	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Jones, J	DAL	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Shipp, M	ARI	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Washington, L	NYJ	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Pinner, A	MIN	3	2007	NA	NA

Breakdown by number of TDs scored

20+ Rushing TDs

Five RBs scored 20+ rushing TDs in a season since 2002.
Four RBs had stats the following year and only Priest Holmes increased his rushing TD totals the year after
25.0% or 1 in 4 increased their TD totals the year after
The average change in TDs scored is -7.5

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2006	Tomlinson, L	SD	28	2007	NA	NA
2005	Alexander, S	SEA	27	2006	7	-20
2003	Holmes, P	KC	27	2004	14	-13
2002	Holmes, P	KC	21	2003	27	6
2005	Johnson, L	KC	20	2006	17	-3

15-19 Rushing TDs

Eight RBs scored between 15-20 rushing TDs in a season since 2002.
3 of 8 increased their rushing TD totals the year after (LaDainian Tomlinson (2), Shaun Alexander)
Seven RBs had stats the following year and 3 of 7 increased their rushing TD totals or 42.8%
The average change in TDs scored is +0.5

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2005	Tomlinson, L	SD	18	2006	28	10
2006	Johnson, L	KC	17	2007	NA	NA
2004	Tomlinson, L	SD	17	2005	18	1
2002	Alexander, S	SEA	16	2003	14	-2
2002	Williams, R	NO	16	2003	9	-7
2004	Alexander, S	SEA	16	2005	27	11
2003	Green, A	GB	15	2004	7	-8
2002	Portis, C	DEN	15	2003	14	-1

10-14 Rushing TDs

Thirty-five RBs scored between 10-14 rushing TDs in a season since 2002.
Only 3 increased their rushing TD totals the year after (LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Corey Dillon)
Twenty-eight RBs had stats the following year and 3 of 28 RBs increased their totals or 10.7%
The average change in TDs scored is -4.8

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2004	Holmes, P	KC	14	2005	6	-8
2002	Tomlinson, L	SD	14	2003	13	-1
2003	Lewis, J	BAL	14	2004	7	-7
2006	Barber, M	DAL	14	2007	NA	NA
2003	Portis, C	DEN	14	2004	5	-9
2003	Alexander, S	SEA	14	2004	16	2
2005	James, E	IND	13	2006	6	-7
2002	McAllister, D	NO	13	2003	8	-5
2003	Tomlinson, L	SD	13	2004	17	4
2004	Williams, Dom	HOU	13	2005	2	-11
2006	Dillon, C	NE	13	2007	NA	NA
2006	Parker, W	PIT	13	2007	NA	NA
2002	Henry, T	BUF	13	2003	10	-3
2004	McGahee, W	BUF	13	2005	5	-8
2004	Barber, T	NYG	13	2005	9	-4
2004	Bettis, J	PIT	13	2005	9	-4
2006	Jones-Drew, M	JAC	13	2007	NA	NA
2006	Jackson, S	STL	13	2007	NA	NA
2005	Anderson, M	DEN	12	2006	1	-11
2005	Dillon, C	CIN	12	2006	13	1
2002	George, E	TEN	12	2003	5	-7
2005	Johnson, R	CIN	12	2006	12	0
2006	Johnson, R	CIN	12	2007	NA	NA
2005	Davis, S	CAR	12	2006	0	-12
2004	Dillon, C	CIN	12	2005	12	0
2004	Johnson, R	CIN	12	2005	12	0
2004	Martin, C	NYJ	12	2005	5	-7
2002	Barber, T	NYG	11	2003	2	-9
2003	James, E	IND	11	2004	9	-2
2002	Williams, Moe	MIN	11	2003	5	-6
2005	Portis, C	WAS	11	2006	7	-4
2003	Henry, T	BUF	10	2004	0	-10
2006	McAllister, D	NO	10	2007	NA	NA
2003	Faulk, M	STL	10	2004	3	-7
2003	Duckett, T.J.	ATL	10	2004	8	-2

9 Rushing TDs

Fifteen RBs scored 9 rushing TDs in a season since 2002.
Only 3 increased their rushing TD totals the year after (Edgerrin James, Larry Johnson, Rudi Johnson)
Ten RBs had stats the following year and 3 of 10 increased their totals or 30.0%
The average change in TDs scored is -1.5

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2002	Mack, S	JAC	9	2003	4	-5
2006	Lewis, J	BAL	9	2007	NA	NA
2002	Bettis, J	PIT	9	2003	7	-2
2005	Barber, T	NYG	9	2006	5	-4
2005	Bettis, J	PIT	9	2006	ret.	ret.
2003	Williams, R	MIA	9	2004	susp	susp
2004	Dunn, W	ATL	9	2005	3	-6
2004	James, E	IND	9	2005	13	4
2004	Johnson, L	KC	9	2005	20	11
2006	Jacobs, B	NYG	9	2007	NA	NA
2005	Jordan, L	OAK	9	2006	2	-7
2005	Jones, T	CHI	9	2006	6	-3
2004	McAllister, D	NO	9	2005	3	-6
2004	Smith, E	ARI	9	2005	ret.	ret.
2003	Johnson, R	CIN	9	2004	12	3

8 Rushing TDs

Sixteen RBs scored 8 rushing TDs in a season since 2002.
Only 4 increased their rushing TD totals the year after (Deuce McAllister, Domanick Williams, Steven Jackson, Marshall Faulk)
Fourteen RBs had stats the following year and 4 of 14 increased their totals or 28.5%
The average change in TDs scored is -2.6

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2002	Taylor, F	JAC	8	2003	6	-2
2003	McAllister, D	NO	8	2004	9	1
2006	Gore, F	SF	8	2007	NA	NA
2005	Duckett, T.J.	ATL	8	2006	2	-6
2002	Hearst, G	SF	8	2003	3	-5
2003	Davis, S	CAR	8	2004	0	-8
2006	Bell, M	DEN	8	2007	NA	NA
2002	Crockett, Z	OAK	8	2003	7	-1
2004	Duckett, T.J.	ATL	8	2005	8	0
2003	Williams, Dom	HOU	8	2004	13	5
2004	Blaylock, D	KC	8	2005	0	-8
2002	Mungro, J	IND	8	2003	2	-6
2003	Buckhalter, C	PHI	8	2004	0	-8
2005	Jackson, S	STL	8	2006	13	5
2002	Faulk, M	STL	8	2003	10	2
2005	Bell, T	DEN	8	2006	2	-6

7 Rushing TDs

Twenty-two RBs scored 7 rushing TDs in a season since 2002.
Only 5 increased their rushing TD totals the year after (Jerome Bettis, Thomas Jones, Stephen Davis, Brandon Jacobs, Ahman Green)
Seventeen RBs had stats the following year and 5 of 17 increased their totals or 29.7%
The average change in TDs scored is -2.3

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2003	Bettis, J	PIT	7	2004	13	6
2006	Henry, T	TEN	7	2007	NA	NA
2004	Jones, J	DAL	7	2005	5	-2
2002	Dillon, C	CIN	7	2003	2	-5
2004	Pittman, M	TB	7	2005	1	-6
2004	Jones, T	CHI	7	2005	9	2
2002	Martin, C	NYJ	7	2003	2	-5
2006	Addai, J	IND	7	2007	NA	NA
2006	Westbrook, B	PHI	7	2007	NA	NA
2003	Crockett, Z	OAK	7	2004	2	-5
2002	Davis, S	WAS	7	2003	8	1
2004	Lewis, J	BAL	7	2005	3	-4
2006	Portis, C	WAS	7	2007	NA	NA
2005	Jacobs, B	NYG	7	2006	9	2
2006	Alexander, S	SEA	7	2007	NA	NA
2004	Green, A	GB	7	2005	0	-7
2002	Smith, L	CAR	7	2003	0	-7
2002	Garner, C	OAK	7	2003	3	-4
2004	Barlow, K	SF	7	2005	3	-4
2003	Westbrook, B	PHI	7	2004	3	-4
2002	Dunn, W	ATL	7	2003	3	-4
2002	Green, A	GB	7	2003	15	8

6 Rushing TDs

Twenty-five RBs scored 6 rushing TDs in a season since 2002.
Only 2 increased their rushing TD totals the year after (Jamal Lewis, Kevan Barlow)
Fourteen RBs had stats the following year and 2 of 14 increased their totals or 14.2%
The average change in TDs scored is -2.8

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2004	Morris, S	MIA	6	2005	1	-5
2006	Jones, K	DET	6	2007	NA	NA
2002	Shipp, M	ARI	6	2003	0	-6
2006	McGahee, W	BUF	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Taylor, C	MIN	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	James, E	ARI	6	2007	NA	NA
2002	Smith, A	NE	6	2003	3	-3
2006	Barlow, K	NYJ	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Benson, C	CHI	6	2007	NA	NA
2005	Gado, S	GB	6	2006	0	-6
2006	Maroney, L	NE	6	2007	NA	NA
2004	Droughns, R	DEN	6	2005	2	-4
2006	Bush, R	NO	6	2007	NA	NA
2005	Alstott, M	TB	6	2006	3	-3
2003	Thomas, A	CHI	6	2004	2	-4
2005	Williams, C	TB	6	2006	1	-5
2002	Lewis, J	BAL	6	2003	14	8
2003	Taylor, F	JAC	6	2004	2	-4
2004	Brown, C	TEN	6	2005	5	-1
2005	Williams, R	MIA	6	2006	susp	susp
2005	Holmes, P	KC	6	2006	NA	NA
2002	Green, W	CLE	6	2003	1	-5
2004	Goings, N	CAR	6	2005	0	-6
2003	Barlow, K	SF	6	2004	7	1
2006	Jones, T	CHI	6	2007	NA	NA

5 Rushing TDs

Twenty-six RBs scored 5 rushing TDs in a season since 2002.
Only 5 increased their rushing TD totals the year after (Willis McGahee, Marion Barber, Clinton Portis, Kevin Jones, Anthony Thomas)
Eighteen RBs had stats the following year and 5 of 18 increased their totals or 27.7%
The average change in TDs scored is -0.7

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2005	McGahee, W	BUF	5	2006	6	1
2003	Staley, D	PHI	5	2004	1	-4
2005	Brown, C	TEN	5	2006	0	-5
2006	Brown, R	MIA	5	2007	NA	NA
2002	Smith, E	DAL	5	2003	2	-3
2002	Bennett, M	MIN	5	2003	1	-4
2005	Jones, J	DAL	5	2006	4	-1
2002	Staley, D	PHI	5	2003	5	0
2006	Green, A	GB	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Rhodes, D	IND	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Taylor, F	JAC	5	2007	NA	NA
2005	Martin, C	NYJ	5	2006	NA	NA
2006	Houston, C	NYJ	5	2007	NA	NA
2002	Alstott, M	TB	5	2003	2	-3
2006	Dayne, R	HOU	5	2007	NA	NA
2003	George, E	TEN	5	2004	4	-1
2006	Barber, T	NYG	5	2007	NA	NA
2003	Hambrick, T	DAL	5	2004	1	-4
2005	Barber, M	DAL	5	2006	14	9
2004	Jones, K	DET	5	2005	5	0
2004	Portis, C	WAS	5	2005	11	6
2003	Smith, O	MIN	5	2004	2	-3
2003	Cloud, M	NE	5	2004	3	-2
2005	Jones, K	DET	5	2006	6	1
2003	Williams, M	MIN	5	2004	3	-2
2002	Thomas, A	CHI	5	2003	6	1

4 Rushing TDs

Twenty-nine RBs scored 4 rushing TDs in a season since 2002.
Only 6 increased their rushing TD totals the year after (Ronnie Brown, Kevan Barlow, Dominic Rhodes, Willie Parker, Steven Jackson, T.J. Duckett)
Twelve RBs had stats the following year and 6 of 12 increased their totals or 50.0%
The average change in TDs scored is +1.0

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2005	Brown, R	MIA	4	2006	5	1
2005	Faison, C	MIN	4	2006	1	-3
2004	Smith, A	TEN	4	2005	3	-1
2002	Barlow, K	SF	4	2003	6	2
2003	Harris, A	STL	4	2004	0	-4
2002	Stewart, J	DET	4	2003	ret.	ret.
2005	Rhodes, D	IND	4	2006	5	1
2006	Dunn, W	ATL	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Betts, L	WAS	4	2007	NA	NA
2003	Jordan, L	NYJ	4	2004	2	-2
2004	George, E	TEN	4	2005	ret.	ret.
2006	Droughns, R	CLE	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Lundi, W	HOU	4	2007	NA	NA
2005	Wells, J	HOU	4	2006	NA	NA
2006	Jones, J	DAL	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Shipp, M	ARI	4	2007	NA	NA
2005	Parker, W	PIT	4	2006	13	9
2004	Wheatley, T	OAK	4	2005	ret.	ret.
2002	Brown, D	CAR	4	2003	NA	NA
2004	Jackson, S	STL	4	2005	8	4
2003	Wheatley, T	OAK	4	2004	4	0
2003	Cartwright, R	WAS	4	2004	NA	NA
2004	Levens, D	PHI	4	2005	ret.	ret.
2005	Toefield, L	JAC	4	2006	NA	NA
2002	Zereoue, A	PIT	4	2003	2	-2
2005	Jones, G	JAC	4	2006	NA	NA
2003	Mack, S	HOU	4	2004	NA	NA
2006	Washington, L	NYJ	4	2007	NA	NA
2002	Duckett, T.J.	ATL	4	2003	11	7

3 Rushing TDs

Nineteen RBs scored 3 rushing TDs in a season since 2002.
Only 3 increased their rushing TD totals the year after (Dorsey Levens, Antowain Smith, Kevan Barlow)
Eleven RBs had stats the following year and 3 of 11 increased their totals or 27.2%
The average change in TDs scored is -1.6

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2003	Hearst, G	SF	3	2004	1	-2
2005	Pass, P	NE	3	2006	0	-3
2004	Chatman, J	SD	3	2005	NA	NA
2006	Pinner, A	MIN	3	2007	NA	NA
2003	Levens, D	NYG	3	2004	4	1
2004	Ayanbadejo, O	ARI	3	2005	0	-3
2005	Dunn, W	ATL	3	2006	NA	NA
2003	Bryson, S	DET	3	2004	0	-3
2003	Jackson, J	CLE	3	2004	0	-3
2002	Dayne, R	NYG	3	2003	NA	NA
2005	Moats, R	PHI	3	2006	NA	NA
2005	Taylor, F	JAC	3	2006	NA	NA
2004	Minor, T	MIA	3	2005	0	-3
2005	Westbrook, B	PHI	3	2006	NA	NA
2002	Christian, B	ATL	3	2003	ret.	ret.
2002	Wells, J	HOU	3	2003	0	-3
2003	Smith, A	NE	3	2004	4	1
2005	Barlow, K	SF	3	2006	6	3
2005	Hicks, M	SF	3	2006	0	-3

Concluding stats and thoughts

Out of the 200 RBs that had at least 3 rushing TDs in a season since 2002, only 137 had stats the following year for reasons due to retirement, suspension or injury of 63 players. Of the remaining 137 players with stats, only 35 improved their rushing TD totals or 25.5%, which is approximately 1 in 4 players.

Percent of players who increased their rushing TD totals in each of the year intervals

2002-2003: 21.6%
2003-2004: 25.7%
2004-2005:23.3%
2005-2006: 35.4%
2006-2007: ??

Comments: The spike in 2005-2006 at 35.4% varies greatly from the previous 3 seasons. Does that mean there's a trend starting that will also include 2006-2007?

Average change in rushing TDs (N+1)

2002-2003: -2.1
2003-2004: -2.7
2004-2005: -2.1
2005-2006: -2.1
2006-2007: ??

Average change in last five years: -2.25 or slightly over 2 rushing TDs less scored the following year per player.

Comments: The fact that the average RB with at least 3 rushing TDs decreases his totals by just over 2 TDs the year after is surprising.

Players that have increased their totals more than once include:

LaDainian Tomlinson (2004, 2005, 2006)
Kevan Barlow (2003, 2004, 2006)
Shaun Alexander (2004, 2005)
Steven Jackson (2005, 2006)

Number of rushing TDs in 2007 needed to have an increase from 2006

29 LaDainian Tomlinson
18 Larry Johnson
15 Marion Barber

Only 4 times in the last 5 years has a player increased that scored 15-20+ TDs the year prior - Tomlinson has done it twice

14 Corey Dillon, Maurice Jones-Drew, Willie Parker, Steven Jackson
13 Rudi Johnson
11 Deuce McAllister
10 Jamal Lewis, Brandon Jacobs

History says only 3 players since 2002 have increased their totals

9 Frank Gore, Mike Bell

Since 2002, four players have increased.

8 Travis Henry, Joseph Addai, Brian Westbrook, Clinton Portis, Shaun Alexander

Historically, only one from this group will improve their totals

7 Kevin Jones, Willis McGahee, Chester Taylor, Edgerrin James, Kevin Barlow, Cedric Benson, Laurence Maroney, Reggie Bush, Thomas Jones

Only 2 in the last 5 years has increased their totals

6 Ronnie Brown, Ahman Green, Dominic Rhodes, Fred Taylor, Cedric Houston (ret.), Ron Dayne, Tiki Barber (ret.)

Historically, only one from this group will improve their totals

5 Warrick Dunn, Ladell Betts, Reuben Droughns, Wali Lundi, Julius Jones, Marcel Shipp, Leon Washington

Historically, at least one should improve their totals, possibly two, but doubtful

4 Artose Pinner

Only 3 players with 3 TDs improved to 4 or more the year after. It doesn't look good for Artose Pinner

On average, approximate 1 in 4 or 25% of these players will increase their totals.

RBs per year with at least 3 rushing TDs

2002: 41
2003: 38
2004: 35
2005 42
2006 42

Comments: We see a fairly steady trend here. No big spikes in rushing TD totals over this span.

20+ rushing TDs scored per year (player in parenthesis improved the following year)

2002: 1 (Priest Holmes +6)
2003: 1
2004: 0
2005: 2
2006: 1

Comments: Fairly uniform since 2002. At least one RB will likely reach the 20 rushing TD milestone, which was unheard of even 10 years ago.

15-19 rushing TDs scored per year (players in parenthesis improved the following year)

2002: 3
2003: 1
2004: 1 (LaDainian Tomlinson +1, Shaun Alexander +11)
2005: 1 (LaDainian Tomlinson +10)
2006: 1

Comments: It's interesting how the NFL has at least 1 RB with 20+ TDs, but also only 1 RB on average with 15-19 TDs.

10-14 rushing TDs scored per year (players in parenthesis improved the following year)

2002: 6
2003: 8 (Shaun Alexander +2, LaDainian Tomlinson +4)
2004: 8
2005: 5 (Corey Dillon +1)
2006: 7

Comments: The rest of the pack among elite RBs hangs out in this category 10-14 rushing TD. This shows that on average every year since 2002, there's one or two ultra-elite RBs that stand above the rest of the elite.

9 rushing TDs scored per year (players in parenthesis improved the following year)

2002: 2
2003: 2 (Rudi Johnson +3)
2004: 5 (Edgerrin James +4, Larry Johnson +11)
2005: 4
2006: 4

Comments: A slight increase in this category over the last 5 years.

8 rushing TDs scored per year (players in parenthesis improved the following year)

2002: 5 (Marshall Faulk +2)
2003: 4 (Deuce McAllister +1, Domanick Williams +5)
2004: 2
2005: 3 (Steven Jackson +5)
2006: 2

Comments: Perhaps a decline in this category over the last 5 years.

7 rushing TDs scored per year (players in parenthesis improved the following year)

2002: 7 (Stephen Davis +1, Ahman Green +8)
2003: 3 (Jerome Bettis +6)
2004: 6 (Thomas Jones +2
2005: 1 (Brandon Jacobs +2)
2006: 5

Comments: No clear trend with 7 rushing TDs - interesting.

6 rushing TDs scored per year (players in parenthesis improved the following year)

2002: 4 (Jamal Lewis +8)
2003: 3 (Kevan Barlow +1)
2004: 4
2005: 5
2006: 9

Comments: Yet with 6 TDs with see an increase in recent years.

5 rushing TDs scored per year (players in parenthesis improved the following year)

2002: 5 (Anthony Thomas +1)
2003: 6
2004: 2 (Clinton Portis +6)
2005: 6 (Willis McGahee +1, Marion Barber +9, Kevin Jones +1)
2006: 7

Comments: No clear trend for this category.

4 rushing TDs scored per year (players in parenthesis improved the following year)

2002: 5 (Kevan Barlow +2, T.J. Duckett +7)
2003: 5
2004: 5 (Steven Jackson +4)
2005: 7 (Ronnie Brown +1, Dominic Rhodes +1, Willie Parker +9
2006: 7

Comments: Perhaps a slight increase here with 7 in each of the last 2 years.

3 rushing TDs scored per year (players in parenthesis improved the following year)

2002: 3
2003: 5 (Dorsey Levens +1, Antowain Smith +1)
2004: 3
2005: 7 (Kevan Barlow +3)
2006: 1

Comments: Perhaps an anomaly, but it's interesting how the odd number of rushing TDs show no clear trend, whereas the even numbered TDs show some sort of trend.