Running Back Rushing TDs & the Year After

Posted 8/19 by Jeff Haseley, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Over the last five years (2002-2006) a running back has scored at least 3 TDs or more in a season exactly 200 times. This study will examine how productive or unproductive running backs as a whole fared the year after or statistically speaking (N+1). The results are somewhat surprising and may steer your opinion regarding future production for running backs this year and in the future.

Overall

Over the last five years, dating back to the 2002 season, 200 running backs have scored at least 3 TDs in a season. Sixty-three of the 200 RBs either achieved those stats in 2006 thus we don't know the results for 2007 yet, or they simply did not have any stats the year after due to injury, suspension or retirement. This brings the total down to 137 RBs that had stats the year after. Only 35 of those 137 RBs had an increase in rushing TD totals the year after or 25.5% or 1 in 4.

The cast of 35 RBs that increased their rushing TD totals the year after (some did it more than once):

Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson (3), Shaun Alexander (2), Corey Dillon, Edgerrin James, Larry Johnson, Rudi Johnson, Deuce McAllister, Domanick Williams, Steven Jackson (2), Marshall Faulk, Jerome Bettis, Thomas Jones, Steven Davis, Brandon Jacobs, Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis, Kevan Barlow (3), Willis McGahee, Marion Barber, Clinton Portis, Kevin Jones, Anthony Thomas, Ronnie Brown, Dominic Rhodes, Willie Parker, T.J. Duckett, Dorsey Levens, Antowain Smith

Breakdown by year

2002-2003: Forty-one RBs had 3+ TDs in 2002. 4 RBs retired, were suspended or were injured for the 2003 season. Only 8 of those RBs who had stats the next year increased their rushing TD totals. 8 of 37 is 21.6%

RBs (8) who increased: Priest Holmes +6, Marshall Faulk +2, Steven Davis +1, Ahman Green +8, Jamal Lewis +8, Anthony Thomas +1, Kevan Barlow +2, T.J. Duckett +7

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2002	Holmes, P	KC	21	2003	27	6
2002	Alexander, S	SEA	16	2003	14	-2
2002	Williams, R	NO	16	2003	9	-7
2002	Portis, C	DEN	15	2003	14	-1
2002	Tomlinson, L	SD	14	2003	13	-1
2002	McAllister, D	NO	13	2003	8	-5
2002	Henry, T	BUF	13	2003	10	-3
2002	George, E	TEN	12	2003	5	-7
2002	Barber, T	NYG	11	2003	2	-9
2002	Williams, Moe	MIN	11	2003	5	-6
2002	Mack, S	JAC	9	2003	4	-5
2002	Bettis, J	PIT	9	2003	7	-2
2002	Taylor, F	JAC	8	2003	6	-2
2002	Hearst, G	SF	8	2003	3	-5
2002	Crockett, Z	OAK	8	2003	7	-1
2002	Mungro, J	IND	8	2003	2	-6
2002	Faulk, M	STL	8	2003	10	2
2002	Dillon, C	CIN	7	2003	2	-5
2002	Martin, C	NYJ	7	2003	2	-5
2002	Davis, S	WAS	7	2003	8	1
2002	Smith, L	CAR	7	2003	0	-7
2002	Garner, C	OAK	7	2003	3	-4
2002	Dunn, W	ATL	7	2003	3	-4
2002	Green, A	GB	7	2003	15	8
2002	Shipp, M	ARI	6	2003	0	-6
2002	Smith, A	NE	6	2003	3	-3
2002	Lewis, J	BAL	6	2003	14	8
2002	Green, W	CLE	6	2003	1	-5
2002	Smith, E	DAL	5	2003	2	-3
2002	Bennett, M	MIN	5	2003	1	-4
2002	Staley, D	PHI	5	2003	5	0
2002	Alstott, M	TB	5	2003	2	-3
2002	Thomas, A	CHI	5	2003	6	1
2002	Barlow, K	SF	4	2003	6	2
2002	Stewart, J	DET	4	2003	ret.	ret.
2002	Brown, D	CAR	4	2003	na	NA
2002	Zereoue, A	PIT	4	2003	2	-2
2002	Duckett, T.J.	ATL	4	2003	11	7
2002	Dayne, R	NYG	3	2003	NA	NA
2002	Christian, B	ATL	3	2003	ret.	ret.
2002	Wells, J	HOU	3	2003	0	-3

Average change from 2002-2003: -2.1

2003-2004: Thirty-eight RBs had 3+ TDs in 2003. 3 RBs retired, were suspended or were injured for the 2004 season. Only 9 of those RBs who had stats the next year increased their rushing TD totals. 9 of 35 is 25.7%

RBs (9) who increased: Shaun Alexander +2, LaDainian Tomlinson +4, Rudi Johnson +3, Deuce McAllister +1, Domanick Williams +5, Jerome Bettis +6, Kevan Barlow +1, Dorsey Levens +1, Antowain Smith +1

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2003	Holmes, P	KC	27	2004	14	-13
2003	Green, A	GB	15	2004	7	-8
2003	Lewis, J	BAL	14	2004	7	-7
2003	Portis, C	DEN	14	2004	5	-9
2003	Alexander, S	SEA	14	2004	16	2
2003	Tomlinson, L	SD	13	2004	17	4
2003	James, E	IND	11	2004	9	-2
2003	Henry, T	BUF	10	2004	0	-10
2003	Faulk, M	STL	10	2004	3	-7
2003	Duckett, T.J.	ATL	10	2004	8	-2
2003	Williams, R	MIA	9	2004	susp	susp
2003	Johnson, R	CIN	9	2004	12	3
2003	McAllister, D	NO	8	2004	9	1
2003	Davis, S	CAR	8	2004	0	-8
2003	Williams, Dom	HOU	8	2004	13	5
2003	Buckhalter, C	PHI	8	2004	0	-8
2003	Bettis, J	PIT	7	2004	13	6
2003	Crockett, Z	OAK	7	2004	2	-5
2003	Westbrook, B	PHI	7	2004	3	-4
2003	Thomas, A	CHI	6	2004	2	-4
2003	Taylor, F	JAC	6	2004	2	-4
2003	Barlow, K	SF	6	2004	7	1
2003	Staley, D	PHI	5	2004	1	-4
2003	George, E	TEN	5	2004	4	-1
2003	Hambrick, T	DAL	5	2004	1	-4
2003	Smith, O	MIN	5	2004	2	-3
2003	Cloud, M	NE	5	2004	3	-2
2003	Williams, M	MIN	5	2004	3	-2
2003	Harris, A	STL	4	2004	0	-4
2003	Jordan, L	NYJ	4	2004	2	-2
2003	Wheatley, T	OAK	4	2004	4	0
2003	Cartwright, R	WAS	4	2004	NA	NA
2003	Mack, S	HOU	4	2004	NA	NA
2003	Hearst, G	SF	3	2004	1	-2
2003	Levens, D	NYG	3	2004	4	1
2003	Bryson, S	DET	3	2004	0	-3
2003	Jackson, J	CLE	3	2004	0	-3
2003	Smith, A	NE	3	2004	4	1

Average change from 2003-2004: -2.7

2004-2005: Thirty-five RBs had 3+ TDs in 2004. 5 RBs retired, were suspended or were injured for the 2005 season. Only 7 of those RBs who had stats the next year increased their rushing TD totals. 7 of 30 is 23.3%

RBs (7) who increased: LaDainian Tomlinson +1, Shaun Alexander +11, Edgerrin James +4, Larry Johnson +11, Thomas Jones +2, Clinton Portis +6, Steven Jackson +4

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2004	Tomlinson, L	SD	17	2005	18	1
2004	Alexander, S	SEA	16	2005	27	11
2004	Holmes, P	KC	14	2005	6	-8
2004	Williams, Dom	HOU	13	2005	2	-11
2004	McGahee, W	BUF	13	2005	5	-8
2004	Barber, T	NYG	13	2005	9	-4
2004	Bettis, J	PIT	13	2005	9	-4
2004	Dillon, C	CIN	12	2005	12	0
2004	Johnson, R	CIN	12	2005	12	0
2004	Martin, C	NYJ	12	2005	5	-7
2004	Dunn, W	ATL	9	2005	3	-6
2004	James, E	IND	9	2005	13	4
2004	Johnson, L	KC	9	2005	20	11
2004	McAllister, D	NO	9	2005	3	-6
2004	Smith, E	ARI	9	2005	ret.	ret.
2004	Duckett, T.J.	ATL	8	2005	8	0
2004	Blaylock, D	KC	8	2005	0	-8
2004	Jones, J	DAL	7	2005	5	-2
2004	Pittman, M	TB	7	2005	1	-6
2004	Jones, T	CHI	7	2005	9	2
2004	Lewis, J	BAL	7	2005	3	-4
2004	Green, A	GB	7	2005	0	-7
2004	Barlow, K	SF	7	2005	3	-4
2004	Morris, S	MIA	6	2005	1	-5
2004	Droughns, R	DEN	6	2005	2	-4
2004	Brown, C	TEN	6	2005	5	-1
2004	Goings, N	CAR	6	2005	0	-6
2004	Jones, K	DET	5	2005	5	0
2004	Portis, C	WAS	5	2005	11	6
2004	Smith, A	TEN	4	2005	3	-1
2004	George, E	TEN	4	2005	ret.	ret.
2004	Wheatley, T	OAK	4	2005	ret.	ret.
2004	Jackson, S	STL	4	2005	8	4
2004	Levens, D	PHI	4	2005	ret.	ret.
2004	Chatman, J	SD	3	2005	NA	NA
2004	Ayanbadejo, O	ARI	3	2005	0	-3
2004	Minor, T	MIA	3	2005	0	-3

Average change from 2004-2005: -2.1

2005-2006: Forty-two RBs had 3+ TDs in 2005. 11 RBs retired, were suspended or were injured for the 2006 season. Only 11 of those RBs who had stats the next year increased their rushing TD totals. 11 of 31 is 35.4%

RBs (11) who increased: LaDainian Tomlinson +10, Corey Dillon +1, Steven Jackson +5, Brandon Jacobs +2, Willis McGahee +1, Marion Barber +9, Kevin Jones +1, Ronnie Brown +1, Dominic Rhodes +1, Willie Parker +9, Kevan Barlow +3

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2005	Alexander, S	SEA	27	2006	7	-20
2005	Johnson, L	KC	20	2006	17	-3
2005	Tomlinson, L	SD	18	2006	28	10
2005	James, E	IND	13	2006	6	-7
2005	Anderson, M	DEN	12	2006	1	-11
2005	Dillon, C	CIN	12	2006	13	1
2005	Johnson, R	CIN	12	2006	12	0
2005	Davis, S	CAR	12	2006	0	-12
2005	Portis, C	WAS	11	2006	7	-4
2005	Barber, T	NYG	9	2006	5	-4
2005	Bettis, J	PIT	9	2006	ret.	ret.
2005	Jordan, L	OAK	9	2006	2	-7
2005	Jones, T	CHI	9	2006	6	-3
2005	Duckett, T.J.	ATL	8	2006	2	-6
2005	Jackson, S	STL	8	2006	13	5
2005	Bell, T	DEN	8	2006	2	-6
2005	Jacobs, B	NYG	7	2006	9	2
2005	Gado, S	GB	6	2006	0	-6
2005	Alstott, M	TB	6	2006	3	-3
2005	Williams, C	TB	6	2006	1	-5
2005	Williams, R	MIA	6	2006	susp	susp
2005	Holmes, P	KC	6	2006	NA	NA
2005	McGahee, W	BUF	5	2006	6	1
2005	Brown, C	TEN	5	2006	0	-5
2005	Jones, J	DAL	5	2006	4	-1
2005	Martin, C	NYJ	5	2006	NA	NA
2005	Barber, M	DAL	5	2006	14	9
2005	Jones, K	DET	5	2006	6	1
2005	Brown, R	MIA	4	2006	5	1
2005	Faison, C	MIN	4	2006	1	-3
2005	Rhodes, D	IND	4	2006	5	1
2005	Wells, J	HOU	4	2006	NA	NA
2005	Parker, W	PIT	4	2006	13	9
2005	Toefield, L	JAC	4	2006	NA	NA
2005	Jones, G	JAC	4	2006	NA	NA
2005	Pass, P	NE	3	2006	0	-3
2005	Dunn, W	ATL	3	2006	NA	NA
2005	Moats, R	PHI	3	2006	NA	NA
2005	Taylor, F	JAC	3	2006	NA	NA
2005	Westbrook, B	PHI	3	2006	NA	NA
2005	Barlow, K	SF	3	2006	6	3
2005	Hicks, M	SF	3	2006	0	-3

Average change from 2005-2006: -2.1

2006-2007: 42 RBs had 3+ TDs in 2006.

Year	Player	Team	Rush TD	N+1	Rush TD	Change
2006	Tomlinson, L	SD	28	2007	NA	NA
2006	Johnson, L	KC	17	2007	NA	NA
2006	Barber, M	DAL	14	2007	NA	NA
2006	Dillon, C	NE	13	2007	NA	NA
2006	Parker, W	PIT	13	2007	NA	NA
2006	Jones-Drew, M	JAC	13	2007	NA	NA
2006	Jackson, S	STL	13	2007	NA	NA
2006	Johnson, R	CIN	12	2007	NA	NA
2006	McAllister, D	NO	10	2007	NA	NA
2006	Lewis, J	BAL	9	2007	NA	NA
2006	Jacobs, B	NYG	9	2007	NA	NA
2006	Gore, F	SF	8	2007	NA	NA
2006	Bell, M	DEN	8	2007	NA	NA
2006	Henry, T	TEN	7	2007	NA	NA
2006	Addai, J	IND	7	2007	NA	NA
2006	Westbrook, B	PHI	7	2007	NA	NA
2006	Portis, C	WAS	7	2007	NA	NA
2006	Alexander, S	SEA	7	2007	NA	NA
2006	Jones, K	DET	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	McGahee, W	BUF	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Taylor, C	MIN	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	James, E	ARI	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Barlow, K	NYJ	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Benson, C	CHI	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Maroney, L	NE	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Bush, R	NO	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Jones, T	CHI	6	2007	NA	NA
2006	Brown, R	MIA	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Green, A	GB	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Rhodes, D	IND	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Taylor, F	JAC	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Houston, C	NYJ	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Dayne, R	HOU	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Barber, T	NYG	5	2007	NA	NA
2006	Dunn, W	ATL	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Betts, L	WAS	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Droughns, R	CLE	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Lundi, W	HOU	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Jones, J	DAL	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Shipp, M	ARI	4	2007	NA	NA
2006	Washington, L	NYJ	4	2007	NA	NA