Can Trent Green finally be the answer for Chris Chambers?

  Posted 7/27 by Jeff Haseley, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Chambers has 451 targets over the last 3 years. Only Torry Holt (470) and Chad Johnson (467) have more targets over that same span. Chambers in those 3 years, has only 211 receptions compared to Holt's 289 receptions and Johnson's 279 receptions.

Reception % for those three players (2004-2006)

• 61.4% Holt
  
• 59.7% C. Johnson
  
• 46.7% Chambers

Who's to blame for Chambers low reception percentage? Is it Chambers himself or is it the four different subpar QBs that he's had over the last four years?

• Chambers 2006: 59 rec on 154 targets = 38%.
  The primary Miami QB was Joey Harrington, who had a 59% completion percentage that year and finished the season ranked 27th among fantasy QBs.



• Chambers 2005: 82 rec on 166 targets = 49%.
  The primary Miami QB was Gus Frerotte, who had a 52% completion percentage that year and finished the season ranked 17th among fantasy QBs.



• Chambers 2004: 69 rec on 132 targets = 52%.
  The primary Miami QB was AJ Feeley, who had a 53% completion percentage that year and finished the season ranked 30th among fantasy QBs.



• Chambers 2003: 64 rec, 130 targets = 49%.
  The primary Miami QB was Jay Fiedler, who had a 57% completion percentage that year and finished the season ranked 24th among fantasy QBs.

Average Miami QB completion % over the last 4 years = 55.25%

Average QB fantasy ranking over the last 4 years (using Footballguys standard scoring format) = 24.5

Looking ahead to 2007, the Dolphins will now have Trent Green under center. How have his receivers fared in Kansas City over the last four years? What was Trent Green's completion percentage over that same span? What were his fantasy rankings each of those years?

Trent Green completion % each of the last 4 years (end of season QB fantasy rankings in parenthesis)

• 2006: 61% (36) keep in mind, Green only played in about 7.5 games in 2006 due to injury
• 2005: 62% (8)
• 2004: 66% (4)
• 2003: 63% (3)

Kansas City top receivers each of the last 4 years

Excluding Tony Gonzalez, due to his TE position, focusing only on WR Eddie Kennison's numbers, they compare to Chambers as follows...

Avg reception %

• Kennison (with T. Green): 57.75%
• Chambers (with 4 diff subpar QBs): 47.00%

That's over a 10% difference. To me that's enough to say that Trent Green's presence in the Miami offense will more than likely improve Chambers numbers in 2007 - at least that's what the numbers suggest on paper. Also worth note, Chambers will not have Wes Welker or Randy McMichael to steal away targets this year. That's 196 targets that will either go to Chambers or a combination of other players. Who are those other people? Miami's depth chart includes...

• WR1 Chris Chambers (154 targets in 2006
• WR2 Marty Booker (90 targets in 2006)
• WR3 Derek Hagan (37 targets in 2006)
• WR4 Ted Ginn/Az-Zahir Hakim (27 targets in 2006 - with DET)
• TE David Martin (36 targets in 2006 - with GB)

It's evidenced that Trent Green can definitely latch on to one particular receiver. If you have a doubt, ask Tony Gonzalez or for a WR, ask Eddie Kennison. Kennison led all WRs on the Chiefs in receptions for each of the last 5 years. Coincidentally, each season was with Trent Green at QB.

If Chambers can match his 150 targets per year average over the last three years and increase his reception rate due to Trent Green's presence, his numbers will look like this for 2007 (using 13.3 yards per reception - his average over last 4 years). Also, note that the blue yardage total is found using Eddie Kennison's 16.3 yards per reception he averaged over the last 4 years

• 50% reception rate: 75 rec, 997 yds, 1222 yds
• 55% reception rate: 83 rec, 1097 yds, 1353 yds
• 60% reception rate: 90 rec, 1197 yds, 1467 yds
• 65% reception rate: 98 rec, 1296 yds, 1597 yds

If Chris Chambers is going to be a one-man wrecking crew in 2007 for the Dolphins passing game and he comes within reach of Kennison's average per reception, then we're talking about serious numbers here which would definitely rank him among the top 10 in fantasy WRs, if not higher. Those results aren't foreign to Chambers, despite the subpar QBs that he has worked with.

In 2003 Chambers finished 11th among Fantasy WRs and that was with Jay Fiedler throwing the ball. In 2005 Chambers finished seventh among fantasy WRs with none other than Gus Frerotte leading the offense.

The naysayers will say Chambers' knack for producing low reception percentages are due to his inability to simply catch the ball, regardless of who the QB is. They'll say numbers will be difficult to project due to the coaching change which led to the hiring of former Chargers offensive coordinator Cam Cameron this offseason. They'll say Trent Green isn't the same QB after taking that hellacious hit last season that kept him out of action for 8 games. Week 13 last season where Green passed for 297 yds and four TD passes may change your opinion.

Those are legitimate arguments, but in the fantasy world we look to numbers, trends, talent, opportunities and systems to reach our conclusions. I'm not saying that Chambers is going to be a top 5 WR, in fact I've long been an advocate that avoids Chambers on draft day. What I am saying is that the changes that have been made to the Miami offense may be enough to allow Chambers and his remarkable talent to finally reach his fantasy potential that we've all been aware of since day one.

He's currently being drafted as the 23rd best WR in 12-team redraft leagues, which is right around the beginning of the sixth round. Can he outperform that ADP? I'm guessing that he can and he will. Don't take my word for it, do you own projections, but 2007 might just be the year that you'll finally be able to rely on drafting Chambers without worry.