Ten Tips for Drafting With Guppies
Guest Submission posted 8/22 by Sean McIndoe, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
If you're reading this site, you probably consider yourself a fantasy football shark (or, at least, a shark-in-training). That means you probably prefer to play in leagues with other sharks. Fair enough.
But there's also a good chance that you'll play in at least one league this year against non-sharks. Maybe it's with coworkers, maybe it's your old college buddies, or maybe it's the guys at the local bar. It's a fun league, but not a shark-infested one. Around here, the sharks call these people "guppies".
Let's be honest: Sharks laugh at guppies. Sharks look down at them. Visit the FBG message boards and the contempt for guppies is almost palpable. How can these guys even feed themselves, let alone expect to compete with us?
But here's the dirty little secret: When sharks swim with guppies, they often get crushed. It happens all the time. If you're reading this article, it may be because it's already happened to you.
Don't let it happen again.
The guppy vs. the shark
What is a guppy? He's the guy who enjoys fantasy football, but doesn't obsess over it. He'll buy a magazine and check a web site or two, but he doesn't scour the Internet looking for any nugget of information. He'll have a cheat sheet, but he doesn't do his own projections. He's in it for fun, but doesn't take it too seriously.
In short, he's most of the world's fantasy football players. He's a good guy, but he's no shark.
Most importantly, the guppy is not stupid. Folks here throw the term around as an insult. Don't be fooled. The guppy knows his NFL just as well as you do. He knows the players and teams. He's not that dumb guy at the draft who makes rookie mistakes, ignores bye weeks and drafts Barry Sanders "just in case".
The guppy is just as smart as you are. He just doesn't follow the standard fantasy shark gameplan, and that makes him different. And unless you know how the guppy is different, that makes him dangerous.
Why guppies win
Think about it: Sharks prepare for fantasy football seasons by visiting web sites run by other sharks. They debate their fellow sharks on the message boards and compete with them in mock drafts. They look for information about average draft position to see what the other sharks are thinking. They drink the shark Kool-Aid
Sharks assume they'll dominate the guppies, with their VBD and ADP and giant shark brains. Then they head off to their guppy league draft... and are left wondering what the hell happened when their precious shark gameplan falls apart by the end of round two.
Here's why: Guppies are dangerous because they work from a different playbook than you're used to. They don't think like you. They're unpredictable... or at least they seem that way.
Guppies do follow patterns. The catch is that they don't follow the ones you're used to when you swim with sharks. You need to make some adjustments. But with some preparation and a few tweaks to your game plan you can exploit their tendencies and weaknesses, while avoiding getting caught in a draft day trap.
Here are ten crucial tendencies of guppies that you'll need to know if want to swim with the guppies:
Tendency #1: They don't do RB Stud
Here's the dirty secret of RB Stud Theory: It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. You need to draft RBs high in shark leagues, because everyone else is going to be drafting RBs. That's why you see expert mocks starting with 14 straight RB picks. Sharks live in fear of RB Stud.
Guppies, on the other hand, couldn't care less. Yes, they realize that RBs are the key to winning, and they will focus on having a solid running game, but they don't go overboard. They will take quarterbacks in round one. They will take Steve Smith and Peyton Manning with their first two picks. They won't often take three RBs with their first three picks. And as a result, sharks who try to play by RB Stud rules end up getting burned in guppy leagues.
Picture this: you're drafting third in a ten-team league. You happily snap up Larry Johnson with your first round pick. After a quick QB run, you're overjoyed to see Rudi Johnson still somehow on the board at 2.8 and grab him too. At 3.3, you can't believe your luck when Cedric Benson is there for the taking. You're living the fantasy shark's dream.
Then you wake up: While you sit and wait for your fourth pick, your opponents are happily snapping up WRs, QBs and even the top TEs. Some of these guys only have one RB so far, but they don't seem to care. These guppies have ignored RBs in favor of stud QBs and WRs, the cardinal sin of fantasy football. But they're not paying the price like they're supposed to, because solid guys like Thomas Jones and Ahman Green are still on the board in round four.
Your mock draft told you that you could grab Drew Brees or Anquan Boldin in the fourth, but they're long gone. Your VBD keeps spitting out the names of RBs, but the WRs and QBs are falling off the board so quickly that your draft board is a mess. And as you sit there, with your three stud RBs already in place, eying all the other top RBs still on the board, you find yourself muttering the words "With my fourth pick, I take Jon Kitna".
If you've never drafted with guppies, the paragraph above seems ridiculous. But anyone who's played in a guppy league before is nodding right now.
The lesson: Even though it goes against everything you think you know about fantasy football, you can afford to wait on RBs in guppy leagues. Load up on RBs because you want to, not because you have to. Jerious Norwood will not be gone by round three. Carson Palmer will be. Don't get caught.
Tendency #2: They don't work in tiers
You don't need to be a shark to know who the best six WRs are this year, or who the top three QBs are. Chances are, a fantasy player with even meager knowledge of the NFL could come up with a cheatsheet that wouldn't be far off from yours, at least in the early rounds. But most guppies see the cheat sheet as a linear progression, whereas sharks know that the key is in the tiers.
Guppies will recognize the importance of tiers on a surface level, but many will not adjust their drafting strategies accordingly. That means that high second tier guys like Jamal Lewis and Donald Driver will go earlier than you'll expect based on ADP. Sharks see a drop-off after Manning/Brady/Palmer at QB and adjust accordingly. Guppies just move down to the next guy on their list.
Tendency #3: They're more likely to get caught up in runs
Runs are a powerful thing. Even the most experienced shark has probably given in to the urge to jump in on a run out of fear of being frozen out of a position. Guppies are no different, and are in fact more likely to follow a run, especially in the middle rounds when the familiar names are starting to disappear off the board.
You can exploit this by sticking to a value approach and ignoring the runs. If you're the type, you could even try to encourage runs by making offhand comments ("Boy, those TEs are flying off the board...").
Tendency #4: They love the veterans...
Guppies will typically put more faith in big name players on the downside of their careers. When push comes to shove in the heat of a draft, a guppy likes the idea of calling out a familiar name. That means they'll have guys like Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis and of course Brett Favre a little higher on their draft boards than you do.
They also won't be scared off by those successful but aging guys like Marvin Harrison. If you have your heart set on any of these guys, be prepared to move earlier than you would in a shark league.
Tendency #5: ... and the rookies
Similarly, guppies tend to love rookies. They still remember the year some guy won the league with Randy Moss, and don't realize how rarely a non-RB rookie will be worth drafting. The more hype a guy has had, the quicker he'll go. Expect guys like Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson to go earlier than normal in your guppy league. Guys like Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell may be drafted in the late round of redraft leagues. And expect somebody to make their move on Calvin Johnson well before you'd want to.
Tendency #6: They're not good at projecting breakouts
If guppies love rookies and love veterans, who's left? The in-between guys, specifically guys in their second-through-fourth seasons who have yet to break out. Guys who have talent, but have worn out their rookie buzz and haven't yet become household names. These are the guys you can target in a guppy league.
With the exception of the occasional trendy sleepers who are getting plenty of press already, breakout candidates are easy pickings in guppy leagues. For example, it's not difficult to imaging coming out of your draft with strong value picks like DeAngelo Williams, Lee Evans or Roy Williams, all well below their ADP.
Note that there's an obvious exception to this rule: Heavily hyped players of any age will go earlier than expected in guppy drafts. Michael Vick was the poster child of this phenomenon. This year, Randy Moss is back on the list. Vince Young could be on his way.
Tendency #7: They'll overlook training camp surprises
Every year we see players get hurt, get suspended, lose their jobs, etc. during training camp and the exhibition schedule. Sharks, of course, will know about it the moment it happens.
The guppy, on the other hand, is probably using a magazine from June as their cheat sheet. That doesn't mean he doesn't know about the injuries. He may even know who the backups are. But he's working from a cheat sheet that doesn't list those guys, and the chances are he takes the easy way out: he scratches the injured stud off the list and let's someone else worry about figuring out where to slot the replacement in.
The exception is the over-hyped training camp breakouts. If a guy has been featured on the home page of ESPN.com under the headline "The Can't Miss Kid", all bets are off.
(By the way, the practical application of this tendency is that guppies rarely know what's happening with the Denver Broncos backfield. Then again, neither does Mike Shanahan.)
Tendency #8: They like to fill out their lineup before drafting backups
Most guppies will prefer to have a QB, two RBs and two WRs by the end of round five (or three WRs after round six, in three-WR leagues). The odds of any one position being drained early (like RB always is in a shark league) are slim.
In other words, expect to see more good RBs and fewer WRs and QBs available in the middle rounds than you're used to. Adjust your drafting strategy accordingly if you need to.
Tendency #9: They're more aggressive about QBs
Quarterbacks are the undisputed stars of the real-life football world. They're
the biggest names,
and have the biggest impact on who wins and loses. For guppies, that often translated
into higher
QB rankings in fantasy cheatsheets.
Sharks can rhyme off a half-dozen well-worn reasons to wait on a QB, and those reasons may be valid. But guppies will usually move more quickly. That means a QB run is likely, as early as the first and second round. Be prepared.
What's more, very often the first backup a guppy will take will be a QB. It's not unusual for guppies to have two QBs by the end of the seventh or eighth round. That means that if you plan to wait past then to take yours, expect to get a mid-second or even third tier guy.
That's not necessarily a bad thing, of course, but you're fooling yourself
if you've penciled in
Phillip Rivers for round nine.
Tendency #10: They take kickers and defenses early and often
Some guppies will take the strategy of filling their starting lineup first even further, by adding TEs, Ks and defenses into the mix. Most guppies will at the very least take their kickers and defenses earlier than you'd expect. And many will take two of each, just to cover off their bye weeks.
(This trend has actually slowed in recent years as more and more magazines warn readers not to take kickers and defenses too early. But it still happens.)
For the most part, this works to the shark's advantage. The second half of
many guppy drafts will be full of kicker, defense and tight end picks. If you're
willing to wait as long as possible on
kickers and defenses, and to take only one of each, you can use these late rounds
to chase sleepers at RB, WR and QB.
However, just keep in mind that you'll have slim picking in that final round. The old shark standby about how "there are always good kickers left in the last round" may not hold true in guppy leagues. Similarly, taking a defense late could mean going with a mediocre team with a good schedule, since last year's best units will be long gone.
In Summary
- Follow the RB Stud gameplan if you like, but don't go overboard. Understand that there will be RBs available in the middle rounds that would never be there in a shark league.
- Either be willing to take those elite QBs and WRs early, or forget them altogether. You will not get a stud at any skill position in round four.
- Be ready for position runs. And be ready for a second run on QB in the middle rounds.
- Target young non-rookies who are ready to breakout, and aggressively go after them in the middle and late rounds.
- If you must have a top kicker or defense, be ready to take them far earlier than you normally would. If you can live without, be realistic about what will be left and be ready to base picks on schedule instead of talent.
