Reversing the Yudkin Theorem for Running Back Analysis

  Guest Submission posted 8/25 by Gene Lomoriello, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Those of you who've read FBG writer David Yudkin's 5/29 upside analysis of Giants QB Eli Manning may have noticed an interesting trend that he cited: on average, teams that lost elite running backs in the recent past have seen their passing yardage go up by about 15% the next season as the offense shifts to adjust for the loss of a key contributor. Each team also saw its rushing yardage decrease by about the same percentage. Yudkin cites this trend (recent examples: Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis, Ricky Williams, Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders, Ricky Watters) to project an approximate 15% increase in Eli Manning's numbers this season as the Giants adjust to the loss of Tiki Barber.

If we reverse the prism through which we view Yudkin's plausible, example-backed theorem, perhaps we can make some realistic projections for four backfields in transition this year:

New York Giants

Let's start here, as Mr. Yudkin's Manning theory invited this analysis. Last year, Tiki Barber produced 1662 rushing yards. A 15% decrease would still leave the Giants offense producing just over 1,400 yards. If Brandon Jacobs, who gets first crack at the job and has looked good thus far in training camp, generates even 70% of the productivity, he still projects to about 990 yards, and his nine touchdowns for '06 is a reasonable projection for this year. That suggests Reuben Droughns cuts in for over 400 rushing yards. Based on this, Jacobs' conservative upside nets out to a pretty good #3 RB at minimum. Prediction: If you don't reach for him, he's a very safe pick at the right spot.

Tennessee Titans

Last year, Travis Henry's 270 carries were good for 1,211 yards. Chris Brown and LenDale White were good for another 100 carries between them. If one of the Tennessee backs emerges as a lead dog at 85% of Henry's productivity, that's about 1,029 yards. Again, nothing to crow about, but a top-tier #3 RB. Prediction: White gets every chance to be this guy. Brown will play some, and Chris Henry, who is very raw, will get on the field a bit later in the season.

Green Bay Packers

While Ahman Green's 266 carries for 1,059 yards was far off his peak years, it was what Green Bay got from a featured veteran last season. That suggests an upside of about 900 yards for either Vernand Morency or Brandon Jackson if one of them wrestles the job from the other. Prediction: Jackson and his hands, over the course of the season, win the job in this offense that likes to pass to running backs. If you're in a keeper league with PPR, nab him with the intent of using him as your #3 or #4 this year and hope he shows enough by next August to confidently hold him as a low-end #2.

Kansas City Chiefs

I realize Larry Johnson hasn't gone anywhere, but Will Shields and Willie Roaf have. Also, Johnson set an NFL record with 416 carries last season, and he is a strong possibility for a long holdout. Let's view this backfield through the same prism just in case Johnson's holdout is followed by an injury upon his return.
Under that scenario, run-happy Herm Edwards would still be looking to get abut 350 carries from a backfield built around 32-year-old Priest Holmes, and Michael Bennett, who has never carried more than 255 times in a season in his career.

Prediction: In this nightmare scenario, Bennett is the "workhorse" with 220-240 carries, good for just over 800 yards. Holmes and a third guy, perhaps rookie Kolby Smith or perhaps someone not even on their roster yet, split the remainder. If we're looking at a Johnson-less KC for any extended period, my advice is stay away from everybody in the entire offense except maybe Tony Gonzalez if he takes a big slide.

While there have been many other running back transitions this offseason, none really fits the bill of a gaping hole in a lineup like the above scenarios. For that reason, I have not chosen to view, for example, Lynch replacing McGahee, McGahee replacing Lewis, or Benson replacing Thomas Jones through the same prism. While one can make arguments about which team got the better of each of those aforementioned transitions, none is as significant a talent drop-off as the four running back transitions in New York, Tennessee, Green Bay and, depending on how it plays out, Kansas City.

Gene Lomoriello has been playing fantasy football since 1988. His veteran league is a 12-team, auction-style keeper league with 15-man rosters and starting lineups consisting of a QB, two backs, two wideouts, a TE and a kicker. Players are retained up to three years.