Target Stats: Filling the Void
Guest Submission posted 8/22 by Gene Lomoriello, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Most fantasy football advisers, like financial advisers, will say that past performance does not necessarily guarantee future returns. While that maxim applies to individual players, when it comes to teams' offenses, there is one statistical area in particular that can be a key indicator of whether a good, young player really has the opportunity to emerge and break out in the coming season.
Targets, or the number of passes attempted to a specific player, taken by themselves are mostly a quantification of what we already know: Manning looks for Harrison, Rivers looks for Gates, McNabb looks for Westbrook. But in their corollary, which I have named Voids, a team's Target stats can be pretty telling, if the NFL team in question will be running the same or a very similar offense once again.
Simply put, Voids are created when highly targeted players are removed from or supplanted in an offense for the coming season. Let's look at some players with an opportunity to emerge or improve upon their numbers due to Voids that exist in '07 offenses, by position:
Running Backs
Brandon Jacobs - Certainly one obvious one here is the retirement of Tiki Barber. Barber was fifth among running backs last season, with 82 targets. Popular sentiment is that the obvious physical differences between shifty Tiki Barber and the enormous Brandon Jacobs will mean a wholesale change to the G-Men's ground game, but Giants coaches are saying that they would like to get Jacobs the ball using the same stretch plays so often used with Barber. If they can successfully get Jacobs the ball in space this way, he will be a load to bring down with a few yards' running room. While I don't expect him to absorb Barber's 82 targets himself - Reuben Droughns has capable hands, and elusive seventh-round pick Ahmad Bradshaw from Marshall will play a role here too - Jacobs will likely see the largest slice of the pie left behind by Barber's retirement, and it should be factored in to your rushing yardage/TD projections in predicting his overall value.
Cadillac Williams - While Michael Pittman hasn't gone anywhere, he is 32 and his eventual replacement was drafted this year in the person of Kenneth Darby. Pittman was the eighth-most targeted running back last year, with 76 targets, and Gruden's decision to put Jeff Garcia at the helm won't do much to reduce checkdowns to the backs. Williams himself was 21st among running backs last year with 43 targets, and he'll be playing with a chip on his shoulder, with something to prove. As Pittman and Alstott continue to fade, and until Darby gets his training wheels off, Williams is in a great to position to see the vast majority of the over 100 targets the TB offense fires in the direction of its backs. He should climb this list significantly this season.
Clinton Portis - Clinton Portis' 17 catches last season don't look like much, but in eight games last year, Portis managed to catch about two-thirds of the 26 passes aimed at him. In addition, Ladell Betts crept into the top 10 most targeted running backs, with 64 Targets aimed his way. His emergence and his high conversion rate (he caught over 80% of balls thrown to him) will mean a role, but Betts is a late bloomer at 28. Expect upwards of 50 Targets to be another factor in Portis' return to form in '07. Betts will play, but he will have to share the backfield targets if Portis remains healthy.
Others to Watch Out For
Either DeDe Dorsey comes through in a complementary role or Joseph Addai (17th) picks up all Dominic Rhodes' (19th) targets, vaulting him into the top five most targets running backs of '07….Mewelde Moore may see his 63 Targets total from '06 (12th) decline as Adrian Peterson is worked in….Ahman Green was 11th last season with 64 Targets, and whether Vernand Morency or Brandon Jackson does more to fill that void may go a long way in splitting a close race for more playing time in the GB backfield…Kevin Jones was 7th last season with 78 Targets, and Tatum Bell will get first crack at absorbing those as long as Jones is out, but look for Brian Calhoun to emerge on passing downs if Bell fails to catch the ball out of the backfield…
Wide Receivers
Drew Carter or Keary Colbert - Watch training camp very carefully here, as the retired Keyshawn Johnson is the only one of the top 20 most targeted receivers from '06 to not be returning to his team in '07. What's more, his 128 targets put him at 17, just four slots behind Steve Smith and his 140 targets. I can't say this clearly enough: the idea that Steve Smith is Delhomme's only read is a myth. Smith is a dominant player, but this has led to the misperception that his less-talented counterparts in the Carolina receiving corps go unseen by Delhomme. Eventually, young Keyshawn clone Dwayne Jarrett will be the beneficiary of those Targets, but off the bat I'd look for speedy Drew Carter or Keary Colbert to have a brief window of relative success.
Derek Hagan - Wes Welker's move to New England leaves 100 targets unaccounted for in Miami, an offense that saw Chris Chambers ding in at #5 overall in '06 with 154 Targets and saw Marty Booker get 90 Targets himself, along with heavily targeted running backs and tight ends (more on that later). So, the likeliest scenario is someone steps up, rather than Welker's 100 Targets getting spread around. The best bet here is not first-rounder Ted Ginn Jr. but second-year man and nifty route-runner Hagan, a guy with the skills to slot nicely into Welker's role in this offense.
Drew Bennett - The venerable Isaac Bruce is not what he once was, yet last season he was still 18th among wideouts with 126 Targets. Chances are Bennett begins transitioning to the #2 role sometime this season. Given enough chances, he's a reasonable bet to check back into the top 20 WRs fantasy-wise as the #2 in this O. Stash him, especially in keeper leagues, as the 29-year-old has a couple of prime years ahead of him in St. Louis once he fully eclipses the 35-year-old Bruce.
Others to Watch Out For
Speaking of Bennett, his 98 targets in '06 was good for 38th among WRs; this may be a reasonable expectation for whomever you're betting on to emerge as Vince Young's #1 in the TE-loving crapshoot that is the Tennessee offense…Obviously, Mike Furrey's 11th place finish with 146 Targets in '06 can be expected to diminish as Calvin Johnson develops, but all three WRs will see extensive action in the Detroit offense…Reche Caldwell saw 101 Targets in '06 to lead the New England receivers; I'd expect Brady's spray-it-around approach to remain, but a slightly higher number of Targets may be about the number of times we can expect him to throw to Randy Moss this season…In Seattle, Darrell Jackson's 112 Targets was good for 12th and Deion Branch's 101 was good for 35th. With Branch moving to Jackson's flanker role, those of you betting heavily on the emergence of DJ Hackett can probably expect him to have about 100 Targets to work with; plenty for a 55-65 catch campaign.
Tight Ends
David Martin - No, I haven't lost it. Randy McMichael's 96 Targets was good for seventh among tight ends in '07 and that was his lowest total in years. The role of the tight end won't be decreasing in a Cam Cameron-run offense, so while Martin is no McMichael, the career-to-date underachiever will get a clear chance to break out. It's now or never, and this is the most wide-open opportunity created by personnel changes at TE. Martin has a window of opportunity on the level of those that the Carolina supporting cast of WRs and the Giants' backfield is looking at. If he falters, recently-signed Courtney Anderson, whose targets-to-completions ratio was almost identical to Martin's last season at just over 58%, will get a shot. Blocking ability, never a strength of Martin's, will also play a role in determining how much each of these guys see the field, but I expect Martin will still see the greater share of targets.
Zach Miller - I know he's a rookie second-rounder, but Oakland has been trying like mad for years to reestablish the role of the tight end, and Lane Kiffin is likely to continue that effort. Last season, Randal Williams was targeted 57 times (16th) and the recently-cut Courtney Anderson was targeted 43 times (27th). Miller is likely to see the vast majority of any 100 or so Targets aimed for Oakland TEs this year. And no, I don't see Dominic Rhodes taking his slice from here; Oakland regularly targets running backs too. Figure Rhodes, once he's reinstated, to grab 40-50% of the targets Lamont Jordan would otherwise see.
Vernon Davis - Even with a broken leg costing him six games, Davis was targeted 42 times in '06, good for 28th. What's more, Eric Johnson, who has departed for New Orleans, was targeted 50 times, good for 23rd place among tight ends. If Davis stays healthy and sees about 90 targets, that likely vaults him into Chris Cooley-Jason Witten territory at a minimum, in terms of opportunity. If he stays healthy, a top 10 finish is not out of the question at all.
Others to Watch Out For
While he's done little his entire career to date, Visanthe Shiancoe inherits a job in which Jermaine Wiggins was targeted 67 times last year, good for 13th most opportunities among tight ends. In terms of getting a clear shot to emerge, we're talking David Martin-lite here…George Wrighster, already on the PUP this preseason with a labrum injury, was a surprising 14th among TEs in '06 with 64 Targets. If Mercedes Lewis shows early, do not let him linger on waiver wires, as the opportunity exists in Jax. If not, expect journeyman Wiggins to fill the void, albeit with about an 8-yard-average. In PPR leagues, whoever starts at TE for Jacksonville is an underrated commodity that's likely a top-tier #2 TE. If Lewis meets expectations, his upside may be a push into the bottom tier of #1 TEs in 12-team leagues, joining the ranks of LJ Smith and Ben Watson.
Hopefully, you've found this helpful. By identifying Voids in an offense and looking to the small group of candidates most likely to inherit those Targets, you increase your odds of unearthing the next sleeper. Happy hunting!
Gene Lomoriello has been playing fantasy football since 1988. His veteran league is a 12-team, auction-style keeper league with 15-man rosters and starting lineups consisting of a QB, two backs, two wideouts, a TE and a kicker. Players are retained up to three years.
