Analyzing Your Redraft League's Draft Habits

Guest Submission posted 8/25 by Bryan Laszlo, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

For the past couple of years I realized one important key to success (which was reiterated by David Dodds in his annual 'The Perfect Draft' articles) was UNDERSTANDING WHAT THE AVERAGE GUY THINKS when planning a fantasy football draft. One way to figure this is to watch the global Average Draft Position (ADP) of the players, but even before Mr. Dodds drove this point home for me a couple of years ago, I'd already began to take the process of figuring out what the average guy thinks one step further. Allow me to refine the directive:

Understand What the Guys In Your League Think

Sure, ADP is useful, but it cannot clue you in on how exactly you should draft in your league, in your exact scoring system. I'm sure you already have feelings and instincts on how your group drafts if you're in an established league. If you're like me, maybe you've been in a league 7 or 8 years or more and you've had the same owners for the last few years. You know that most owners go for a RB in the first round- and several go for a second one in the second round. You know the guy that's a maverick, taking that touted QB or TE early. If you have access to your drafts from the last few years, and you can quantify your thoughts on each of your co-owners, you can figure out a pretty reasonable blueprint for how the draft will unfold. You can use this information to compare your league's historical drafting tendencies with the current ADP lists. You can ascertain the baselines you need to customize your DVBD settings and the custom drop-offs in Draft Dominator. You can generate a short list of players that should be available to you at each pick, and you can get the lowdown on the tendencies and tells of your competition- then outwit and frustrate their strategies as appropriate.

What I started doing three years ago is trying to figure out WHEN I NEED TO DRAFT A POSITION, beyond the first few rounds when you are simply taking the best player available (if you're smart, that is). This folds nicely into the concept of trying to get as many valuable players as you can at each position. But, when SPECIFICALLY do I need to pull the trigger- especially in those early-middle rounds and on (say round 4 or 5)?

Looking To the Past...

Let's start by looking at the last couple of years of your drafts- lay them out like so (I used Excel, you may be able to make use of Google's free online spreadsheet, Open Office or just hand-write it out on graph paper if you don't have a spreadsheet program):

2006 Draft
Rnd	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
Fred	RB	RB	WR	RB	WR	TE	QB	WR	WR	RB	LB	LB	DB	WR	RB	DL	QB	RB	K	WR
Bryan	RB	RB	WR	RB	WR	WR	WR	RB	QB	QB	TE	DL	DB	DB	QB	LB	LB	WR	K	RB
Mark	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	RB	RB	QB	TE	DB	LB	DL	WR	K	DL	K	TE	DB	LB
Bill	QB	WR	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	TE	K	LB	WR	QB	DB	DL	RB	K	RB	LB	DB
Dave	RB	RB	RB	QB	WR	TE	WR	WR	QB	LB	K	WR	TE	DB	RB	LB	WR	DL	K	LB
John	RB	WR	WR	RB	QB	WR	RB	WR	QB	TE	RB	LB	LB	RB	WR	DB	DL	K	DL	RB
Rick	RB	WR	WR	WR	RB	QB	TE	RB	WR	LB	DB	DL	QB	LB	K	WR	RB	WR	LB	DL
Mike	RB	WR	RB	QB	RB	WR	RB	WR	WR	QB	TE	K	DB	WR	RB	LB	DL	WR	RB	DB
Gary	RB	RB	QB	WR	RB	WR	WR	QB	LB	TE	DB	LB	WR	DL	DB	RB	LB	K	QB	RB
Pete	RB	RB	RB	WR	TE	QB	WR	WR	QB	WR	WR	RB	RB	DL	TE	LB	LB	DL	K	DB
Pat	RB	WR	TE	WR	RB	QB	WR	QB	RB	LB	WR	WR	RB	DB	WR	LB	RB	DL	K	DB
Scott	RB	WR	QB	RB	WR	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	RB	LB	DL	QB	DB	WR	LB	RB	K	WR
Pos	POSITIONAL SUMS BY ROUND
Rnd	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
QB	1	0	2	3	1	3	1	2	5	2	0	0	2	1	1	0	1	0	1	0
RB	11	5	3	5	4	2	4	5	1	1	2	1	2	1	3	2	2	3	1	3
WR	0	7	6	4	6	5	6	5	3	2	2	3	1	3	2	2	1	3	0	2
TE	0	0	1	0	1	2	1	0	2	3	2	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0
K	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	0	2	2	6	0
DL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	2	1	2	2	3	1	1
LB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2	5	1	1	0	5	4	0	2	2
DB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	4	2	1	0	0	1	4
2005 Draft
Rnd	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
Gary	RB	QB	RB	WR	WR	WR	TE	QB	LB	RB	LB	DB	RB	DL	WR	DB	TE	RB	WR	QB
Mark	RB	RB	WR	TE	WR	WR	RB	WR	DB	DL	LB	QB	RB	RB	K	RB	DB	K	TE	DL
Scott	RB	WR	RB	RB	WR	QB	QB	WR	WR	RB	QB	WR	TE	LB	DL	RB	WR	RB	DB	LB
John	RB	RB	RB	WR	RB	WR	QB	WR	RB	WR	QB	TE	LB	RB	WR	K	LB	DB	DL	WR
Bill	RB	WR	WR	QB	QB	WR	WR	DB	LB	WR	TE	WR	K	DL	DL	RB	LB	RB	K	DB
Pete	RB	RB	WR	WR	QB	RB	WR	TE	QB	RB	TE	DB	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	LB	DB	K
Bryan	RB	RB	RB	TE	WR	QB	LB	RB	LB	WR	QB	DL	WR	DB	K	RB	WR	WR	WR	TE
Fred	QB	RB	RB	WR	WR	RB	WR	QB	WR	RB	WR	WR	DB	LB	RB	DL	TE	K	DB	LB
Pat	RB	WR	WR	WR	RB	RB	QB	RB	LB	RB	DB	TE	QB	WR	RB	LB	K	WR	WR	DL
Mike	RB	WR	RB	QB	WR	RB	WR	QB	WR	WR	RB	TE	DL	LB	RB	K	DB	DB	WR	RB
Rick	RB	WR	WR	WR	QB	RB	QB	TE	DB	LB	DL	WR	K	RB	RB	LB	WR	RB	QB	LB
Dave	RB	RB	RB	TE	WR	QB	WR	QB	WR	WR	WR	LB	LB	K	DL	DB	RB	DL	DB	K
Pos	POSITIONAL SUMS BY ROUND
Rnd	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
QB	1	1	0	2	3	3	4	4	1	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
RB	11	6	7	1	2	5	1	2	1	5	1	0	2	3	5	5	1	4	0	1
WR	0	5	5	6	7	4	5	3	4	5	2	4	2	2	2	0	4	2	4	1
TE	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	1
K	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	2	1	2	1	2
DL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	3	1	0	1	1	2
LB	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	1	2	1	2	3	0	2	2	1	0	3
DB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	2	1	1	0	2	2	2	4	1
2004 Draft
Rnd	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
Laz	RB	RB	WR	RB	WR	QB	RB	QB	WR	LB	QB	DL	WR	DB	LB	RB	TE	WR	WR	RB
Flynn	RB	RB	RB	QB	WR	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	LB	WR	TE	LB	RB	DB	K	DL	K	TE
Pat	RB	WR	RB	QB	RB	LB	WR	TE	WR	RB	RB	QB	WR	WR	RB	K	DB	LB	WR	QB
Scott	RB	RB	WR	RB	WR	QB	WR	WR	QB	RB	QB	LB	WR	LB	RB	DB	RB	DL	QB	K
Koz	RB	WR	QB	RB	WR	RB	WR	WR	WR	QB	TE	RB	LB	DB	WR	DL	K	DB	QB	RB
Mark	RB	QB	WR	RB	WR	WR	WR	WR	QB	RB	DL	LB	DB	K	DL	QB	TE	DB	QB	LB
Fred	RB	QB	RB	WR	WR	RB	WR	RB	QB	WR	WR	LB	LB	WR	DL	RB	DB	TE	K	RB
Stew	RB	RB	RB	WR	WR	QB	TE	WR	LB	DL	LB	DL	WR	TE	RB	DB	LB	WR	QB	WR
Gary	WR	RB	RB	QB	RB	WR	QB	WR	LB	K	DB	WR	LB	RB	WR	DL	TE	DB	QB	DL
Emig	RB	RB	WR	WR	RB	WR	QB	QB	TE	WR	DL	LB	WR	LB	DB	WR	QB	RB	K	DL
Bill	WR	QB	WR	TE	WR	RB	RB	WR	RB	QB	LB	RB	WR	K	DB	DL	LB	DB	K	WR
Murph	RB	RB	WR	RB	WR	QB	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	LB	LB	WR	TE	DB	RB	QB	K
Pos	POSITIONAL SUMS BY ROUND
Rnd	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
QB	1	1	0	2	3	3	4	4	1	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
RB	11	6	7	1	2	5	1	2	1	5	1	0	2	3	5	5	1	4	0	1
WR	0	5	5	6	7	4	5	3	4	5	2	4	2	2	2	0	4	2	4	1
TE	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	1
K	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	2	1	2	1	2
DL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	3	1	0	1	1	2
LB	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	1	2	1	2	3	0	2	2	1	0	3
DB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	2	1	1	0	2	2	2	4	1

By way of example, we require 1 QB/RB/WR/TE/K, with three offensive flex (RB/WR/TE) and 1 DL/LB/DB plus one defensive flex, for a total of 12 starters in my league. So looking at the data over three years, you can start seeing trends from year to year. You can see when all the starters are taken by position (24 RBs gone by round 4, 36 WRs by round 8, etc). You can see over the years how many of each position you can expect to be gone by a certain round- then see how that changes year-to-year. In 2004, 10 QBs were gone by round 7- and it was the same for 2005 and 2006! So, guess what? I'm thinking 10 QBs will be taken by round 7 of this year, too.

...To Clue You In On the Future

This leads into the discussion on baselines, which you can use for customizing the Draft Dominator or your VBD spreadsheet. I wound up using round 7, or 84 picks, as my baseline (I basically noted when the last starting QB is taken over the years and made that round the baseline). So, how many players were gone each year after 84 picks?

2004- 13 QB, 36 RB, 32 WR, 2 TE, 1 LB
2005- 14 QB, 33 RB, 32 WR, 4 TE, 1 LB
2006- 12 QB, 34 RB, 34 WR, 5 TE

So, now you see some interesting things over the years, but really no drastic changes. In other words- you see trends. Such as the fact that the increase in viable fantasy TEs has clearly translated into more TEs being drafted in the first 7 rounds; also, the league has begun to realize that WRs can match RBs in value after a certain number of RBs are taken. At any rate, you can derive baselines from these numbers any way you like- I use a weighted average- 60% of the most recent year, 30% of two years ago, and 10% of three years ago. That yields a baseline of QB12, RB34, WR33 and TE4. (Note- for Kickers and IDP players I just use worst starter, splitting the defensive flex position equally between LB and DB; so, K12, DL12, LB18 and DB18).

Based on my analysis of how my league drafted over the last three years, how the rest of the world is drafting (using ADP), and what I know of each owners' drafting styles (it's all there in your draft records), I can come up with exactly when to grab top players, tailored to how I expect my specific league to act. I know when I can probably wait for players and when I may have to reach a little. I know roughly how many of each position will be gone by each pick I own. I can compare my league's generic ADP over the years to the current ADP (e.g.. when does my league take TE1 compared to this years ADP for TE1). My reward? I had the top team #1 or #2 in fantasy points in my main redraft league since I started with this level of detail.

Digging Deeper

Once you have this information in a spreadsheet, you can manipulate it a number of ways, creating graphs (a picture can show you trends you may miss scanning the numbers). You can also detail individual drafting patterns in much the same way and see how strategy and tendencies change year to year… you'll also see habits that your league-mates may not even know they had… like this guy who takes RBs with his first three picks every year since 2004 and takes a kicker fairly early (and always takes two!). If you do this for all your owners, you can actually mock draft in a more realistic manner than just relying on ADP or 'take the best', one-size-fits-all approach.

Joe's Brigade

Yr (Pk)

2002(11)

�

2003(9)

2004(2)

2005(12)