Breaking Down Team Defenses (Tier 4)Freelance Submission posted 7/25 by Mike Howerton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com Tier 4 Defenses - These teams are the bottom dwellers. They're not startable in most matchups, and are a poor consideration as a combo/sleeper defense. They're also a risky decision during the fantasy playoffs. Whenever 2006 fantasy results are mentioned, this is the default scoring used:
26. San Francisco 49ers 2006 Fantasy Finish: t-30th Defensive Losses: DT Anthony Adams Defensive Additions: CB Nate Clements, S Michael Lewis, OLB Tully Banta-Cain, NT Aubrayo Franklin Rookies: ILB Patrick Willis, DT Ray McDonald, DE Jay Moore, FS Dashon Goldson, DT Joe Cohen, CB Tarrell Brown Notes: The 49ers really made some upgrades this offseason on defense. They made CB Nate Clements the highest-paid defender ever (before Indy re-signed Freeney). He could be a solid difference maker. Tully Banta-Cain is a definite upgrade, and should start at outside linebacker. With DC Greg Manusky implementing a 3-4 scheme on a full-time basis this year, he has a chance to improve on his career-best 5.5 sacks last season. Rookie LB Patrick Willis will be a spectacular LB for this defense for many years, and should be a day 1 starter. On special teams, Maurice Hicks averaged an impressive 25.1 yards per kick return, so he could produce a surprise TD this year. They really weren't hurt much from losses this year. The only one of note was DT Anthony Adams, who some say was not a great fit for the 3-4 defense SF will run this year. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
Don't hesitate to start your RBs against this unit, unless they show significant improvement in run support. 2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 4
I don't see anything I really like for most of the season. They do have 2 favorable home games during the fantasy playoffs however. Tough Matchups: 5
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: JAX - W4 (Home vs. SEA). They really had Seattle's number last year, so this could possibly be a matchup to pay attention to. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: MIN, CIN, TB. Bottom Line: The 49ers have been one of the hardest teams to rank, because I really think they've made significant improvements over last season. But they finished tied for 30th place in fantasy scoring last season, allowing an NFL worst 25.8 PPG. Pedestrian numbers for turnovers, and a mediocre 34 sacks doesn't make things any better. There's not much to love about their schedule this year either. Besides a week 4 home game against Seattle, who they matched up well against last season, nothing really sticks out to me until week 13. Don't sleep on them for fantasy playoff consideration however, with 2 favorable matchups and at home for all three games. Outlook: Let's be honest, their schedule got much tougher this season, and there's really not enough startable games for them to rank much higher, even though they've improved as a team. If they show major improvements over last season, then maybe give them some consideration. How they might surprise: They might still be a year or two away, but never underestimate the ability for a team to get hot out of nowhere. It happens every year. If they prove to be a worthy defensive unit, their schedule does get a little better the second half of the year. They could even be worth something during the fantasy playoffs, with 3 home games. 27. Washington Redskins 2006 Fantasy Finish: 32nd Defensive Losses: CB Kenny Wright, FS Adam Archuleta Defensive Additions: MLB London Fletcher, CB Fred Smoot, CB David Macklin Rookies: FS LaRon Landry, OLB Dallas Sartz, LB H.B. Blades Notes: The Skins actually spent some time this offseason addressing the defense. London Fletcher should do quite well in this defense, and will also bring some well needed locker-room leadership. FS Laron Landry was the best pick for this team in the first round, and if he isn't a day 1 starter, I'll be surprised. If he can get in rhythm with fellow S Sean Taylor, then you just might be looking at one of the most potent tandem in the league. Smoot is also back after a stint in Minnesota. The team also signed reserve CB David Macklin. These moves make the loss of Kenny Wright pretty unnoticeable. And finally, the loss of Adam Archuleta will not hurt the club at all, seeing as how he never really had a chance to contribute last season anyway. On special teams, WR Antwan Randle El is an extremely solid return man. He has scored a special teams touchdown in 4 of the last 5 years, and there's no reason to expect otherwise this season. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
Unless you see a very noticeable change in this defense, don't hesitate to start anyone at any position against this unit. 2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 4
Tough Matchups: 5
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: MIN, PHI, or OAK - W5 (Home vs. DET) Fantasy Playoff Schedule: CHI, @NYG, @MIN Breakdown: They were the single worst unit in fantasy football last season. They allowed 23.5 PPG last season, ranking them 27th in the NFL. They finished dead last in interceptions, dead last in sacks, and close to last in fumble recoveries. They also finished in the bottom half for both rushing and passing yards per game. Do you want the good news? They had such abnormally low turnovers last year, that it can only get better. The interceptions should no doubt increase. Overall, they've added some quality players. Outlook: Unfortunately, improvements in the secondary just aren't enough for me to rank them much higher than this, especially after finishing dead last in 2006. They'll likely serve as nothing more than a spot starter every now and then during favorable matchups. If they do prove to be an improved fantasy unit, I wouldn't overlook their fantasy playoff schedule (CHI, @ NYG, @ MIN). It's not perfect, with two away games as well, but there could be some opportunities against some not-so perfect QBs. How they might surprise: I'll tell you one reason for optimism here. There is no risk associated with drafting them. Obviously, don't look here for your starting D/ST, but the price for this defense will be so dirt cheap that chances are you'll get one hell of a bargain if they do improve. There are as many as 5 positive matchups to work with, so don't hesitate to grab them up if they start performing well. 28. Cleveland Browns 2006 Fantasy Finish: 23rd Defensive Losses: DE Alvin McKinley, CB Daylon McCutcheon Defensive Additions: DE Robaire Smith, DE Antwan Peek, CB Kenny Wright, NT Shaun Smith Rookies: CB Eric Wright, CB Brandon McDonald, DE Melila Purcell, DE Chase Pittman Notes: There is some reason for optimism here. Key losses were addressed via free agency and the draft. Robaire Smith and Shaun Smith should help their horrible rushing defense. Antwan Peek had a solid season in Houston a few years back, when they used to run the 3-4 defense. He should fit in well in Cleveland. Josh Cribbs also bumps them up a notch as a kick/punt return man. He added a kick return for a TD last season. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 4
Weeks to Avoid Starting: 7
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: DEN, PIT - W6 (Home vs. MIA) Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @NYJ, BUF, @CIN Breakdown: Cleveland finished as the 23rd ranked fantasy defense last year. They allowed 142.2 rushing yards per game (29th) and 202.6 passing yards per game (15th). They also allowed 22.3 PPG (22nd). They did manage a respectable 18 interceptions and 9 fumble recoveries. Paranoid Baltimore D/ST owners could even want to give them a shot week 12 against HOU, when BAL plays @ SD. Outlook: Other than a few favorable matchups here and there, Cleveland really doesn't pose much of a fantasy option. If they get hot, they could be worth a look during the fantasy playoffs, with the exception of an away game @ CIN week 16. I'd follow their production during the first half of the season before getting too excited about them for now. How they might surprise: As stated above, they managed 18 interceptions and 9 fumble recoveries. Those are decent numbers of turnovers for such a low-ranked team. As with any other team, a unit that forces turnovers could carry fantasy value, so keep tabs on those numbers. 29. St. Louis Rams 2006 Fantasy Finish: 24th Defensive Losses: CB Travis Fisher, DT Jason Fisk, LB Dexter Coakley Defensive Additions: DE James Hall, OLB Chris Draft, SS Todd Johnson , CBs Lenny Walls and Mike Rumph Rookies: DE Adam Carriker, CB Jonathan Wade, DT Clifton Ryan, DT Keith Jackson Notes: There wasn't much to like about the Rams last year. They were second only to the Colts in rushing YPG. James Hall unfortunately might not improve their run defense at all, although he could be a factor in the pass rush. Adam Carriker should step in immediately as a starter. Chris Draft adds some versatility, and the remaining additions are all depth. The coaching staff is extremely high on MLB Will Witherspoon this offseason Lining up in the middle will allow him to move from sideline to sideline making plays, instead of being limited to just one side of the field. Travis Fisher seems to be the only notable loss, which happens to be in the one area that the Rams weren't all that bad at last season - pass defense. An aging Dante Hall might add some excitement to the return game as well. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
Never bench a RB against them, unless the situation drastically changes. 2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 2
Tough Matchups: 6
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: BAL - W8 (Home vs. CLE) Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @CIN, GB, PIT Breakdown: STL finished as the 24th ranked fantasy defense last year. They allowed 145.4 rushing yards per game (31st) and 189.7 passing yards per game (8th). They did manage to post a respectable 17 interceptions and 15 fumble recoveries, placing them in the top half of the league for both categories. This will be year 2 with Haslett as Defensive Coordinator, and they already made decent improvements in his first year. If they had a weaker schedule, I'd be more optimistic. Division foes should have no problems putting up points on them, especially if their run defense doesn't get better. Add in away games @ NO, CIN and DAL, and it doesn't look much better. I see plenty more shoot-outs, which resulted in them giving up almost 24 points per game last season. Depending on how teams like BAL, ATL and ARI fare offensively, there might be room for a few spot starts here and there, but I still believe they're worth staying away from. They could give BAL owners a solid bye week against CLE week 8 however, so keep that in mind. Outlook: Bottom line, that run defense needs to get a hell of a lot better, especially in a division filled with good RBs. Their turnovers once ranked them as a strong sleeper team last season. This year, the schedule is just too hard, and the matchups just aren't there. Keep tabs on them for the time being, but don't bump them up from the bottom tier just yet. If you see something you like as a combo team with a solid DEF1, and you can afford the roster spot, then by all means grab them and hope for the best. How they might surprise: Like I mentioned above, in early 2006 they looked like a solid waiver wire pickup due to a strong showing in turnovers. If they once again post some respectable numbers, then grab them off waivers and play them cautiously. They just might prove useful the 2nd half of the season against a few interception-friendly QBs 30. Tennessee Titans 2006 Fantasy Finish: 22nd Defensive Losses: CB Adam Jones, DE Robaire Smith, LB Colby Bockwoldt Defensive Additions: CB Nick Harper, CB Kelly Herndon, S Bryan Scott, LB Ryan Fowler, LB Gilbert Gardner Rookies: FS Michael Griffin, DT Antonio Johnson, DE Jacob Ford, CB Ryan Smith Notes: Harper will step in this season for Adam Jones, but won't return punts. Plus he will have to adjust to no longer playing zone in Indy's Cover 2. Rookie FS Michael Griffin, if moved to CB as expected, could face a steeper learning curve this season, as it can be tougher to make that transition as a rookie. Hard-hitting Kelly Herndon could also see a significant role this year. The DL pretty much stayed the same as last year, and for a unit that ranked 29th in sacks, that's not a good thing. They should see a full season this year from Albert Haynesworth however, so we'll see if that changes anything. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
In other words, don't hesitate starting anybody against them again this year. 2006 Stats
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 5
Tough Matchups: 5
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: Baltimore - W8 (Home vs. OAK). Also Denver, Pittsburgh - W6; San Diego - W7 Fantasy Playoff Schedule: SD, @KC, NYJ Bottom Line: The Titans D/ST finished 22nd in 2006 in fantasy scoring. They allowed 144.6 rushing yards per game (30th) and 225.1 passing yards per game (27th). They also allowed 25 PPG (31st). Good news is, they posted 17 interceptions, ranking them in the top half of NFL teams last year. Together, this unit scored 5 defensive touchdowns last season (2nd best in NFL), placing them on many people's lists as an early sleeper candidate. Pacman Jones' loss for the season set them back. Jones' 4 interceptions accounted for ¼ of their total last year. Baltimore D/ST owners take note however; I love their matchup at home against Oakland during BAL's bye week. Outlook: Vince Young really isn't surrounded by much talent this year (meaning they'll likely play from behind quite often). They were involved in many high scoring games last year, as evident by their extremely high points allowed per game. Their defensive touchdowns and interceptions kept them alive in fantasy scoring during many of those stretches. I just don't think they're worth much right now as a fantasy defense. I wouldn't grab them ahead of many defenses, but if they prove that they can play ball without Adam Jones, then they're worth at least paying attention to at the start of the season as a mild sleeper team. How they might surprise: Weeks 5-10 could actually prove to be very startable, if their defense shows that they don't need Pacman Jones to be effective. Believe it or not, in certain leagues that did not award/penalize points for points-allowed last year, the Titans actually finished in the top 5 for scoring, so there's plenty to build on here. The first 3 weeks are an excellent chance to gauge their talent, as they play some very tough games. 31. Detroit Lions 2006 Fantasy Finish: 27th Defensive Losses: CB Dre Bly, DE James Hall, S Terrence Holt, CB Jamar Fletcher, S Jon McGraw, DT Marcus Bell, DT Tyoka Jackson Defensive Additions: CB Travis Fisher, DE Dewayne White, Rookies: DE Ikaika Ilama-Francais, FS Gerald Alexander, CB A.J. Davis, LB Johnny Baldwin, CB Ramzee Robinson. Notes: Obviously Bly's departure was the most noteworthy loss. Most will agree that he wasn't as physical of a CB for the “Tampa 2” scheme. Fisher could compete for Bly's starting job, although a number of athletic rookies could also get a chance to contribute early. Alexander and Robinson have shown the ability to play multiple positions in the secondary in college, and should fit in somewhere in Marinelli's Tampa 2 system. DE White has good speed, and his history with Marinelli certainly doesn't hurt. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 4
Tough Matchups: 7
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: San Diego, W7 (Home vs. TB) Fantasy Playoff Schedule: DAL, @ SD, KC Bottom Line: Detroit finished 2006 as the 27th ranked fantasy defense. They averaged 129.6 rushing yards per game (21st) and 220 passing yards per game (25th). They also ranked 30th in PPG (24.9). They posted a miserable 12 interceptions, yet a 3rd best 18 fumble recoveries. I believe they're heading in the right direction. I actually believe them to be in a better situation than some teams that are actually ranked higher. However, their rough schedule, and downright horrible fantasy playoff schedule, leaves me no choice but to bump them down. Outlook: Many young versatile players were drafted and acquired through free agency. Plus, they'll benefit from another year under a defensive-minded head coach. However, they're still at least a year away from being anything more than a bye-week filler. How they might surprise: They do get a few points for playing in a turnover-friendly division. Having forced 30 turnovers last season, they could be marginally startable in some division games this year, as well as a few others. Just don't expect much during the fantasy playoffs. 32. Houston Texans 2006 Fantasy Finish: t-30th Defensive Losses: NT Seth Payne, LB Antwan Peek, CB Lewis Sanders Defensive Additions: LB Shawn Barber, DT Jeff Zgonina, LB Danny Clark, CB Jamar Fletcher Rookies: DT Amobi Okoye, CB Fred Bennett, SS Brandon Harrison, LB Zach Diles Notes: Shawn Barber should add some good competition along side standout DROY Demeco Ryans. The front seven has been addressed perfectly during the previous few drafts; I expect them to be very solid for years, especially in the 4-3 defense Houston runs. Okoye makes it 4 straight defensive linemen taken in the first round. My gut feeling has me penciling in Mario Williams for 10+ sacks this year. He started off slow but still finished 2nd on the team in sacks (with a measly 4.5, but still). Dunta Robinson is a fine CB, but needs to improve on his only 2 interceptions last year Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
Surprisingly stingy against opposing TEs last year, but otherwise nothing to shy away from. 2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 6
With the exception of possibly TB week 14, they're completely unstartable during fantasy playoffs (vs. DEN, @IND). Tough Matchups: 6
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: Chicago, Miami - W9 (@ OAK) Fantasy Playoff Schedule: TB, DEN, @IND Breakdown: Houston finished tied for 30th in fantasy scoring in 2006. They allowed 122.3 rushing yards per game (20th) and 215.3 passing yards per game (22nd). They also posted a horrible amount of interceptions and sacks, landing in the bottom 5 for each category. Outlook: After finishing tied for 30th last year in fantasy scoring, there still aren't too many reasons to get excited this year, unless another year of experience does anything for you. There wasn't really much talent added to this defense, with the exception of Okoye. Not to mention, they play Indy twice, New Orleans, Denver and San Diego. Unless you can't find any other options during Chicago or Miami's bye weeks, there's not much to see here. They also have one of the worst fantasy playoff schedules in the league. How they might surprise: With very few favorable matchups, and a horrible playoff schedule, I just don't see any surprises. Best case scenario, if you carry only one defense, they might be available as a last minute filler later on in the season. They are returning all 4 starters in the secondary, so there's a chance their interceptions will improve this year. |
