Breaking Down Team Defenses (Tier 3)Freelance Submission posted 7/25 by Mike Howerton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com Tier 3 Defenses - These teams are a marginal DEF1 with upside. They're either a solid sleeper team, a highly ranked combo defense, or a near-perfect playoff combo. Or a combination of all three. Whenever 2006 fantasy results are mentioned, this is the default scoring used:
15. Kansas City Chiefs 2006 Fantasy Finish: 10th Defensive Losses: LB Kawika Mitchell, SS Sammy Knight Defensive Additions: LB Donnie Edwards, LB Napolean Harris, DE Jimmy Wilkerson, DE Alfonso Boone, DT Ron Edwards Rookies: DT Turk McBride, DT Demarcus Tyler, Notes: Napolean Harris will replace Mitchell this season, likely a better fit in KC's Cover 2 scheme. DE Jared Allen will be missed at the start of the season, due to league suspension. Tamba Hali has a chance to improve on his solid 7.5 sack rookie season. 3rd year Derrick Johnson should see some steady improvement as well. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 8
Tough Matchups: 7
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: SD, CAR - W7 (@ OAK), Also MIN, PHI - W5 (Home vs. JAX) Solid Combination with: SD and CAR. Other possibilities include CHI, OAK, NYJ (CLE-TEN-DET fantasy playoff combo) and NO. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @DEN, TEN, @DET Breakdown: Many people either forget or don't realize that KC actually finished 10th in fantasy scoring last year, right between Denver and Pittsburgh. They were middle of the pack in most defensive stats, although allowed a respectable 19.7 PPG (11th best in NFL). Overall, I think they took a decent step forward. I see no reason why they can't improve on last year's numbers. I love the schedule this season, although they do post one of the higher number of dangerous matchups as well. They do have an extremely solid fantasy playoff schedule. Outlook: Overall, they are a marginal pick as a DEF1, as they do have some rough games this season (SD x2, IND, CIN, DEN x2). That is the lone reason for their slide in my rankings from their 10th place finish last season. There's just too many bad matchups along the way. Worst case scenario, draft them in combination with another solid defense, SD and CAR come to mind especially, and if they prove to be consistent throughout the season, let them ride it out. With half of their games very startable this year, including a stellar playoff schedule, they are right on top of my 3rd tier list of sleeper/combo defenses this year, with a good shot at creeping up into tier 2. How they might surprise: A tier 3 team by my definition is a solid sleeper pick, that also combines exceptionally well with another highly rated defense. KC fits this mold perfectly. They showed flashes of being a stud defense last season, even averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game vs. SD. If they can perform well in tougher matchups this season, while remaining consistent in their favorable matchups, forget combining KC with another team. Grab them and ride them out. 16. Indianapolis Colts 2006 Fantasy Finish: 29th Defensive Losses: LB Cato June, CB Nick Harper, DE Monte Reagor, CB Jason David, DT Corey Simon Defensive Additions: None Rookies: CB Daymeion Hughes, DT Quinn Pitcock, FS Brannon Condren, LB Clint Session, CB Michael Coe, DE Keyunta Dawson Notes: Once again, the Super Bowl winner has been picked apart. Cato June is gone. Nick Harper was arguably their best CB, and has gone to division rival Tennessee. He was an excellent fit in the Tampa 2 system. They also lost CB Jason David to New Orleans. CBs Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden, their first and second round picks from 2005, will need to step up this season to replace both cornerbacks. Both have seen playing time in backup roles, and will have a chance to start this year. FS Bob Sanders was injured for much of last season, so a full season from him will certainly improve their numbers this year. I believe he had a huge hand in their improved defense during the NFL playoffs last season. DT Anthony McFarland has experience in Dungy's system, and should have a solid impact on run support, which as you all know was their one true weakness last year. 6 of 9 total draft picks were spent on defense this year. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
Their passing defense was stellar last season, evident in the extremely low numbers posted by opposing QBs and WRs. Unless the situation changes, keep your RBs in your lineup against this unit. 2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 9
Tough Matchups: 4
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: PHI, MIN - Week 5 (Home vs. TB) Solid Combination with: MIN (Although they share a tough week 9 matchup, I love their playoff combo - SF, OAK and HOU combined). Other possibilities include CAR and PHI. Note: Indianapolis looks to be one of the best teams to pair a top end defense with. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @BAL, @OAK, HOU. Breakdown: The Colts finished 2006 as the 29th ranked fantasy defense. They ranked dead last in rushing YPG (173), but 2nd in passing YPG (159.3). Even with such a strong showing for pass defense, they still managed a league worst 25 sacks. Those numbers simply have to improve. Most other teams in the top 10 in passing yards hovered around 40 sacks, so look for those stats to increase. They also managed a mere 15 interceptions, and with such a strong pass defense last season, those numbers should get better. I see some great matchups this season, plenty of reason to bump them up after their poor finish last year. I wouldn't feel too comfortable drafting them as my only defense, as I doubt you can start them while playing NO, DEN, SD or NE (even though they posted 4 INTs last year against NE). Outlook: Even though I don't quite advise drafting them as a lone DEF1, you can put up a good argument for drafting them in combination with another defense. They matchup exceptionally well with many other teams. DO NOT sleep on them for their fantasy playoff schedule. They could conceivably be a top 2 tier team this year, even with their personnel losses. I have no choice but to bump them up considerably this season after their horrible finish last year as a top sleeper/combo defense. How they might surprise: With as many as 9 favorable matchups this season, all Indy needs to do is prove consistent in their tougher matchups this year. They posted solid numbers last year against NE and PHI, so there's no reason to doubt they can. If they continue to participate in high scoring games, especially with minimal turnovers and sacks, there's just not enough room for them to move up much higher. If their defense resembles their defense from the NFL playoffs last year, they have a shot. 17. New York Jets 2006 Fantasy Finish: 14th Defensive Losses: DE Dave Ball Defensive Additions: DE Kenyon Coleman, DE David Bowens Rookies: CB Darrelle Revis, ILB David Harris Notes: Adding versatile DE Kenyon Coleman was the only free agency move really worth mentioning. They added two very talented defenders with their first two picks in the draft, one of which was first rounder Darrelle Revis, which addresses one of their key needs on defense. Justin Miller just might be the best return man in the AFC, but he is facing some legal issues at the moment. If he plays, he's capable of providing multiple special teams touchdowns. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 9
Tough Matchups: 6
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: Baltimore, Dallas or KC- W8 (vs. BUF) Solid Combination with: KC. Other possibilities include NYG , CIN and MIN. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: CLE, @NE, @TEN Breakdown: The Jets finished 2006 as the 14th scoring fantasy defense, allowing 130.3 rushing yards per game (24th) and 201.4 passing yards per game (14th). They also ranked 6th allowing 18.6 PPG. With only 25 takeaways, including 16 interceptions, that is a number that must improve this season. Their weekly performances were fairly consistent last season, with bad games coming at the hands of tough opponents, such as Indy (1) and Jacksonville (-6). There were a few surprisingly weak performances against weaker teams, like Buffalo (1) and Detroit (4). This season's schedule looks a little tougher at first glance. Indy, Chicago and Jacksonville are not on the schedule, which is good since neither of those matchups were very favorable last season. But they do have good amount of questionable matchups, 6 by my count. They have a pretty tough start to the season with NE, BAL, PHI and CIN during the first 7 weeks. Things do shape together nicely for the fantasy playoffs however, with CLE, NE and TEN on the schedule. I listed both matchups against NE as ‘avoid' games, but remember, they averaged 7.5 points per game against NE last season. Pay attention to how each team is playing, and go ahead and plug them in if you have to. Outlook: The Jets suffer a slight slide in my rankings from their 14th place finish last season. That's due to both a tougher schedule (in my opinion) and the fact that other teams have leaped ahead of them. That's not saying you should avoid them this year. There is plenty of room for them to pick up right where they left off. They haven't lost a single quality player, are in their second year under Eric Mangini, and they focused heavily on defense through the draft. Plus, with the exception of 1 game last season, they were pretty effective against most divisional teams they played. They should be just as good as last season, and with 2 favorable matchups in the fantasy playoffs, they're worth rostering. They don't quite crack my top two tiers, but they're a solid sleeper team with the possibility of rising even higher. How they might surprise: Every non-divisional team that they performed miserably against last year is off the schedule this year. Plus, they played well in 5 of 6 divisional matchups last year. Keep tabs on them early in the season, they just might prove to be start-worthy against most teams. They need to force more turnovers though, so be weary of those numbers. Regular season aside, nobody cares how good their fantasy defense was if they get booted from the playoffs, or miss them completely. Fantasy owners care about a team performing like a stud when they need them the most. The Jets just might pay off as one of the top sleeper teams during the fantasy playoffs this season, even with their week 15 matchup against NE. 18. New Orleans Saints 2006 Fantasy Finish: 25th Defensive Losses: LB Danny Clark Defensive Additions: CB Jason David, LB Dhani Jones, FS Kevin Kaesviharn and WLB Brian Simmons Rookies: CB Usama Young, CB David Jones, ILB Marvin Mitchell Notes: Defensively, I believe they are headed in the right direction. Word is that DE Will Smith (10.5 sacks last season) should sign an extension. And DE Charles Grant should also remain with the team this year. FS Kevin Kaesviharn and WLB Brian Simmons were signed this offseason from Cincinnati, and both should bring some well needed leadership to the team. Kaesviharn is a solid pass defender, and Simmons could push for the starting spot at WLB. Not to mention, they just signed LB Dhani Jones. He could step in immediately as well. This defense still needs a playmaker at CB, a position in which they addressed by signing Jason David away from the Colts. They also drafted CB Usama Young in the 2nd round of the draft. Young is considered one of the more talented players to come out of Kent State in recent years, and has started ever since being a true freshman. The good news is they lost absolutely nobody of value this offseason I don't believe Danny Clark even started last year, so he will not be missed. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
Pretty stingy against opposing RBs last year. 2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 10
Tough Matchups: 3
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: San Diego - W7 (Home vs. ATL). Also Chicago - W9 (Home vs. JAX) Solid Combination with: SEA. Other possibilities include BUF. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @ATL, ARI, PHI Breakdown: The Saints really flirted around with fantasy success last season. They finished 25th last year in fantasy scoring, but don't let the numbers fool you. Four times last year they scored negative points. One occasion was a meaningless week 17 game. The other three were all shoot-outs (all 31 points-allowed or higher) with CIN, BAL and PIT - all solid teams, none of which are on the schedule this season. With all that they still finished a respectable 13th in PPG (20.1). They did however finish near the bottom in both fumble recoveries (8) and interceptions (11). Is it really a stretch to imagine those numbers going up? My money would be on both numbers improving this year. There is quite a few favorable matchups to work with this season. Outlook: The Saints have an exceptionally high ceiling this year. There's not many extremely easy matchups, but plenty of possibilities. I see 10 possible startable matchups this year, which is no stretch considering that was the exact number of games last year in which they scored 5+ points. It's not absurd to project them finishing much better this year. I think they've done enough to improve this defense, and to make them a legit fantasy contender. They also have a decent fantasy playoff schedule. No really bad teams, but there are 2 home games. They bump up this year to my list of tier 3 teams, as a great sleeper defense with a favorable schedule. How they might surprise: I think you'll get an early chance to evaluate this team, so if you feel comfortable letting them hit the waiver wire and trying to grab them later, go for it. Game 1 is against Indianapolis, and that will be an excellent opportunity to gauge how they perform. If they prove worthy against a powerful offense like Indy, then I've got no problem bumping them up a tier immediately. 19. Buffalo Bills 2006 Fantasy Finish: 9th Defensive Losses: CB Nate Clements, LB London Fletcher, LB Takeo Spikes Defensive Additions: DT Darwin Walker Rookies: OLB Paul Posluszny, FS John Wendling, DE C.J. Ah You Notes: The Bills impressed last year under first year DC Perry Fewell, who brought a new defense to the team, while starting a number of rookies as well. The young talent continues to come in this year. The pressure is on LB Paul Posluszny to help fill the void left by the loss of Fletcher and Spikes. To prove effective this year, this defense simply have to find a way to stop the run, an area in which Posluszny could certainly help. DT Darwin Walker was productive in Philly, and hopefully he can improve this team's rushing defense. While the Bills have gotten much younger the past few years, they've lost some talent from last year's team, and unproven players will now be forced to step up. If second year CB Ashton Youboty pushes for a starting spot this season, their secondary could see 3 of 4 positions manned by second year players. With such a young defense, they could be solid for years to come, but they also could face some bumps in the road this year. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 9
Tough Matchups: 6
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: NE - W10 (@ MIA) Solid Combination with: ATL and CAR. Other possibilities include SD and NO. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: MIA, @CLE, NYG Breakdown: Buffalo came out of nowhere to finish 2006 as the 9th best fantasy defense. They averaged 140.9 rushing yards per game (28th) and 188.7 passing yards per game (7th). They also cracked the top ten by averaging 19.4 PPG. With 24 takeaways, they ranked in the bottom half of the league. They fared very well against some great teams last year, including a good performance against NE, and solid games @ IND and home vs. SD. They had a superb stretch between weeks 9-15, before a poor performance against TEN week 16. They seemed to be a little better in away games last year, averaging 8.25 fantasy points, compared to 6 PPG in home games. Things aren't looking great for this year. First, they have a much tougher schedule. Even though I see potentially 9 startable games, there's at least 6 dangerous games to be weary of as well. Outlook: I'm not crazy about bumping down a top 10 fantasy unit from last season. One reason for that is based on other teams moving ahead of them in my rankings. But, they've lost some good players this offseason and the schedule seems much tougher this year. If they can prove that their younger talent is up to the task, and that they're capable of improving on their pedestrian numbers of takeaways last year, then I'll certainly look to bump them up a tier. For now, I see a good young defense with some startable games, a little inconsistent against divisional teams, but with a great fantasy playoff schedule. If you grab a top defense, I'd give them serious consideration as a combo/DEF2 with the possibility for another late season surge. How they might surprise: It won't take much to bump them back up into the top 10. The key is to assess how some new starters handle their new roles. Their first half of the season is considerably tougher than the second half, so if they show some consistent production during that stretch, grab them up and ride them out the rest of the year. After the CIN game week 9, it's no stretch to believe they can post high numbers every week. 20. Seattle Seahawks 2006 Fantasy Finish: 17th Defensive Losses: DE Grant Wistrom, DE Joe Tafoya, S Ken Hamlin Defensive Additions: DE Patrick Kerney, DE Brandon Green, SS Brian Russel, FS Deion Grant Rookies: CB Josh Wilson, DT Brandon Mebane, DE Baraka Atkins, LB Will Herring Notes: Russel has people talking this year, describing him as a born leader. He's an instant upgrade to this defense. Upgrading the safety position was key this year, as they gave up plenty of ground to opposing WRs last season. Hopefully DE Patrick Kerney can relive his 13 sack 2004 season. They also added more depth at DE in Brandon Green. Bottom line, the additions far outweigh the losses. Kerney adds some youth in place of Grant Wistrom, and both safeties were upgrades. This secondary undergoes a complete makeover this season, as their only returner, Marcus Trufant, is switching sides. From a special teams perspective, Nate Burleson is a great option as a return man. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
Keep a close eye on the performance of the secondary the first few weeks. They gave away WR points last year, but have upgraded since. 2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 5
Tough Matchups: 5
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: CHI, MIA - W9 (@ CLE) Solid Combination with: NO. Other possibilities include NYG Fantasy Playoff Schedule: ARI, @CAR, BAL Breakdown: The Seahawks finished 17th in fantasy scoring last season. They averaged 21.3 PPG (19th), 16th in passing YPG (203.5), and 22nd in rushing YPG (126.8). They also posted top 5 numbers in sacks (41). If you follow FBG's SOS analysis, they have a pretty favorable easy-tough game ratio. Also add the fact that they focused primarily on upgrading the defense during the offseason, not to mention their first 3 draft picks in April (minus a first rounder). I see no reason why they can't improve over last year's numbers. One thing though, I see a pretty bad stretch of games during the season against CIN, SF (who they didn't matchup well with last year), PIT, NO, STLx2, and CHI. The good news is, many of those games are home games. I'm not in love with their fantasy playoff schedule, but I've seen worse. Outlook: Due to the fact that I feel other teams have jumped up in front of them, they're starting a little further down the list than last year's finish. I'd be willing to overlook a late season slide like they suffered at the end of last season, if only they had a few more favorable matchups. Having said that, there's only a handful of truly elite offenses on that list, and Seattle is well worth giving a chance. There's no reason you shouldn't grab them in combination with another defense and play the matchups, even if they don't turn into a solid DEF1 starter. How they might surprise: Seattle was a weekly top ten ranked fantasy defense last year, but a disastrous fantasy playoff performance plummeted them down to 17th . Even a mediocre 4 fantasy points per game during the fantasy playoffs would've allowed them to finish the season ranked 10th . That same defense has suffered minimal losses, and even added some talent. It won't take much for them to bump right up to posting top 10 numbers again, especially if they can force more turnovers. 21. Green Bay Packers 2006 Fantasy Finish: 13th Defensive Losses: None Defensive Additions: CB Frank Walker Rookies: DT Justin Harrell, SS Aaron Rouse, LB Korey Hall, LB Desmond Bishop Notes: This defense lost virtually nobody, and added depth at CB. Most of their cap room was spent retaining veterans. Harrell and Rouse could step in this season and contribute, and together with former first rounder A.J. Hawk and 2nd rounder Nick Collins, this team has a solid mix of youth and veterans. The only glaring weakness last season was possibly S Marquand Manuel. He will be pushed this season by a number of younger players, including hard-hitting S Marviel Underwood, who was pushing for the job last year until an injury ended his season. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 6
Tough Matchups: 6
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: JAX - W4 (@ MIN) Solid Combination with: OAK (with the exception of two equally tough week 15 matchups.). Other possibilities include NE, KC and DEN. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: OAK, @STL, @CHI Breakdown: GB finished the season as the 13th scoring fantasy defense, although I would consider that number with a grain of salt. Their unreal 5 interception, 2 defensive TD performance against CHI at the end of last year really vaulted them up the rankings, and they likely would've finished at least 6-7 spots down had it been an average outcome. They allowed 22.9 PPG (25th), and averaged 114.1 rushing YPG (13th) and 206.8 passing YPG (17th). They really paid off last year in turnovers and sacks. Their 23 interceptions was 3rd in the league, and their 46 sacks ranked 4th. And they were very consistent against opposing teams last year. All of their bad fantasy performances came against playoff caliber teams (Every one of them made it except STL). Consider the fact that their defense has not changed one bit from last season, adding a few young players in the draft instead. Now the bad news, the schedule. According to FBG's Strength of Schedule analysis, there is only 1 ‘easy' game on the schedule, and 3 ‘tough' matchups. They have a semi-decent playoff schedule, with a home game vs. OAK week 14, and a game @ CHI week 16. Outlook: They get an instant bump in my book for playing in the NFC North. Almost half of their 23 interceptions came against NFC North opponents last season, and all three teams have QBs capable of multiple turnovers. If only the schedule was more favorable, there could be a solid argument in favor of them being drafted early as a DEF1, start-worthy in most games. Still, I would draft them and expect to start them occasionally, with a somewhat favorable fantasy playoffs. They're a solid sleeper/combo team this year, so pair them up with another solid defense if possible. With a very tough schedule, and an unrealistic finish to last season, I have to start them off further down than their 13th place finish to 2006. How they might surprise: Regardless of the tough schedule, there's room for a big leap from their current ranking. As I stated above, they really didn't have any head-scratching performances last season. You should be able to pinpoint the favorable matchups, and the not-so favorable matchups, on a week to week basis. At the very least, you're looking at a defense that you can plug into a favorable matchup with a good amount of certainty. Also, aside from playing in the shaky NFC North, they have 9 matchups this year against QBs with less than 2 full years of starting experience. Make that 10 if KC ends up starting Brodie Croyle. If they can repeat the same kind of numbers of turnovers and sacks, they could crack the top 10 very easily. One interesting item to note, in certain leagues that do not penalize or award fantasy points based on ‘points-allowed', they actually would've finished ranked in the top 5 last year. There's something to work with here. 22. New York Giants 2006 Fantasy Finish: 26th Defensive Losses: LB Lavar Arrington, LB Carlos Emmons, CB Frank Walker Defensive Additions: LB Kawika Mitchell, S Michael Stone Rookies: CB Aaron Ross, DT Jay Alford, LB Zak DeOssie, SS Michael Johnson Notes: One possible excuse for failure last season was that the Giants were plagued with injuries to the front seven, so hopefully they can get a fresh start this year under new DC Steve Spagnuolo. He enjoyed some success while a member of the PHI staff, so hopefully the Giants can benefit this year. The bad news is they made hardly any upgrades during the offseason Arrington is once again a FA, and Kawika Mitchell doesn't seem to be much of an upgrade to the LB core. The did spend a number of early picks on defense this year. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
Very QB friendly last season. 2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 6
Tough Matchups: 3
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: SD, CAR - W7 (Home vs. SF). Solid Combination With: OAK and NYJ. Other possibilities include IND and KC. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @PHI, WAS, @BUF Breakdown: After a great stretch last season between weeks 5-9, they completely faded the second half of the season, only topping 5 fantasy points once. They ended up finishing 26th in defensive fantasy points. They allowed 22.6 PPG last season (24th), ranking 14th in rushing YPG and 28th in passing yards. They also forced 28 total turnovers. I like them as a sleeper pick this year, with a great fantasy playoff schedule. They have a home game against WAS week 15, a game in which they fared quite well in last season, as well as a game @ BUF week 16. Outlook: They suffered some injuries last season, and now they have a new DC with an aggressive style. I can live with giving them a slight upgrade to their 2006 finish. I would avoid them as a DEF1, yet take them as a sleeper/combo defense with upside. Don't sleep on them for fantasy playoff consideration. How they might surprise: They were doomed for fantasy success last season. They opened up the season with a horrible schedule, and subsequent horrible fantasy performances, against IND, PHI and SEA, before starting to post respectable numbers. Also, there were just too many shoot-outs last year. I noted 7 games where they allowed at least 26 points. All of the non-divisional teams in which those shoot-outs occurred are not on the schedule for 2007. If they can cut down on those high-scoring games and focus on playing sound defense, while improving their performances against NFC East opponents (4 of 6 games were poor outings in 2006), then they have the possibility of pushing themselves into a top 15 defense. 23. Atlanta Falcons 2006 Fantasy Finish: 18th Defensive Losses: DE Patrick Kerney, LB Edgerton Hartwell, LB Ike Reese Defensive Additions: CB Lewis Sanders, LB Marcus Wilkins Rookies: DE Jamaal Anderson, CB Chris Houston, OLB Stephen Nicholas, DT Trey Lewis, CB David Irons, SS Daren Stone Notes: Free agency was just a mess. Sanders and Wilkins are depth pickups, probably not much more. Hartwell was a bust, and Kerney will be replaced by rookie Jamaal Anderson. Anderson and Houston should both fill in nicely as rookies, but as Atlanta transitions to ex-Dallas DC Mike Zimmer's 4-3 scheme, there will have to be some growing pains attached. A healthy John Abraham could increase their value this year, as he posted a respectable 4 sacks in only 6 games last year. Standout pass rusher Rod Coleman is possibly out for a few games after injuring his quadriceps in an offseason accident, which could leave the left side of the line vulnerable to start the season. Their secondary could see some new faces this year as well. One, a converted CB playing FS in Jimmy Williams, and the other possibly rookie CB Chris Houston. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
They were the worst defense in fantasy last season for opposing WRs. 2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
They were the textbook definition of inconsistency - 8 total games of 3 fantasy points or less. Startable Fantasy Weeks: 7
Tough Matchups: 4
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: JAX - W4 (Home vs. HOU) Solid Combination with: BUF and DEN. Other possibilities include DAL and OAK. Even though they share a bye-week, they also matchup quite well with ARI. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: NO, @TB, @ARI Breakdown: ATL finished the season as the 18th ranked fantasy defense. They allowed 20.5 PPG (15th), finished in the top 10 for rushing defense (103.6 YPG), and 29th in passing defense (229.3 YPG). They were very startable at times last year, but were also very inconsistent. I don't see those inconsistencies changing much this year with a completely new coaching staff. There is a good schedule to work with here though. I believe they'll start the season strong. I wouldn't worry about throwing them in vs. NYG week 6. The Giants are Tiki-less this year (He ran all over them last year for 227 total yards). They also complement Jacksonville's bye week very well, with a home game vs. HOU. Their fantasy playoff schedule is potentially favorable, with the exception of W14 vs. NO. Outlook: ATL flirted around with fantasy success often last season. I see as many as 7 favorable matchups this year, so I expect much of the same. With so many questions to answer this year, I believe they're a gamble as a DEF1, so proceed cautiously. Their increasingly tough schedule, combined with a subpar free agency, has me starting them further down the list than their 18th place finish last season. But if defense-by-committee is your thing, go ahead and pair them with somebody and see what happens. How they might surprise: If Atlanta can get on board with Mike Zimmer, and get full season from many of their playmakers, they have a shot at bumping up a tier. Pay attention to interceptions and sacks. They were near the bottom in picks last year, but very respectable in fumbles recovered. And they ranked near the top 10 for sacks, which is great considering no single player recorded more than 6. If all the gears can start turning in this defense, they have a chance to skyrocket back up into the top half of fantasy defenses by midseason. 24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2006 Fantasy Finish: 28th Defensive Losses: DE Dewayne White, LB Shelton Quarles, DT Booger McFarland (mid-2006) Defensive Additions: LB Cato June, DE Kevin Carter, DE Patrick Chukwurah, CB Sammy Davis Rookies: DE Gaines Adams, SS Sabby Piscitelli, LB Quincy Black, CB Tenard Jackson, DE Greg Peterson, OLB Adam Heyward, CB Marcus Hamilton Notes: DE Dewayne White really shouldn't be missed this season, as he really only came on strong while replacing the injured Simeon Rice. Cato June should come in and immediately impact this defense. Kevin Carter can play either DE or DT, and Patrick Chukwurah will add some pass rushing capability. Add in the most dominant DE in the draft in Gaines Adams, along with a handful of other defensive players that could step in this season. The Bucs not only added some playmakers this offseason, but they added some well needed depth and youth as well. Their defensive scheme relies heavily on the performance of their defensive linemen. If they stay healthy this year, after an injury plagued year last season, then they have a chance to return to their top ten form this year. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 4
Tough Matchups: 4
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: SD, CAR - W7 (@ DET). Also DEN, PIT - W6 (Home vs. TEN) Solid Combination with: DAL and MIA Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @HOU, ATL, @SF Breakdown: Overall, they finished 28th in fantasy scoring last season, allowing 22.1 PPG. They also finished 30th in interceptions (11) while only recovering 9 fumbles. Tampa was actually on my list of rising defenses this year. In my opinion, they did nothing but upgrade this offseason, both in free agency and the draft. But I had to drop them down a bit in my rankings. Unfortunately, their schedule just stinks. Even if you look at the Strength of Schedule breakdown, there are only two favorable matchups listed. Good news is, there are also only two ‘tough' games as well. It'll be slim pickings to start the season though, as they face SEA, NO, STL and IND during their first 5 weeks. Outlook: If their defense shows improvement, they could be worth consideration. With a few fresh faces, as well as hopefully a healthy Simeon Rice, they could surprise this year. I feel comfortable ranking them towards the bottom of the 3rd tier of defenses, as a low-risk defense with a stellar fantasy playoff schedule. How they might surprise: Honestly, even with an improved defense this season, I just don't see them rising very high in the rankings during the regular season. Here's where they could come out of nowhere though - the fantasy playoffs. They could be a very solid start throughout weeks 15-17, and they could even be sitting there on the waiver wire. Don't forget they have a late season bye week as well, as that could give them a slight boost down the stretch. 25. Arizona Cardinals 2006 Fantasy Finish: 19th Defensive Losses: None Defensive Additions: S Terrence Holt, CB Ralph Brown and CB Roderick Hood Rookies: DT Alan Branch, ILB Buster Davis Notes: Holt, Brown and Hood should all see some playing time in Arizona's thin secondary. The big question this year is whether or not Arizona can fit their defensive players into a new 3-4 scheme, which new HC Ken Whisenhunt is supposedly installing. This scheme will take advantage of an athletic group on defensive players, transitioning former down-linemen to the outside LB position. These players include Bertrand Berry, who is coming off two injury-plagued seasons since his 2004 Pro Bowl year, and Chike Okeafor, who led the team in sacks last season. The good news is that they spent their first two draft picks this year on players that should fit in well, even if it's not right away. I love the fact that this defense has lost nobody, and even drafted a few day 1 prospects. Plus, even with a new head coach, they're still retaining their DC from last year. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
They gave up the 3rd highest amount of points to opposing WRs last year. 2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 5
Tough Matchups: 7
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: New England - W10 (Home vs. DET). Also Chicago, Miami - W9 (@ TB) Solid Combination with: TB and DEN. Other possibilities include ATL (although they share a bye week), PHI and IND. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @SEA, @NO, ATL Breakdown: They finished as the 19th best fantasy defense in 2006. The question remains, is the talent there in Arizona good enough to make a fantasy impact? Their 24.3 PPG last season was the 29th worst in the NFL. They also forced 33 turnovers, and posted a respectable 38 sacks. At first glance, there are not many matchups that look favorable. I would keep an eye on how many situations play out though at the beginning of the season. If division rivals SF or SEA show any signs of regressing at all, then I would bump up the matchups that Arizona has with them, as both teams have QBs capable of turning the ball over if pressure is put on their running game. ARI's run defense was middle of the pack last year, so they could stand a chance at minimizing either team's running attack. Outlook: I'm not crazy about bumping Arizona down from last year, as they've really lost nobody this offseason Most of that has to do with me having to rank other teams ahead of them. If Arizona gets hot, then they are certainly worth picking up. They face some pretty tough competition on the road this year, with games @ CIN, NO, SEA and STL. They did prove last year that they can put up numbers against talented teams, such as CHI, SEA, and STL. But they do have some dangerous teams on deck, and a potentially brutal fantasy playoff schedule. I'd like to see how they perform against some solid teams weeks 2-5 before I bump them up too high. But their performance against tougher teams last season, together with a solid 19th place finish, is enough for me to start them off as the first team in my 3rd tier of defenses, as an extremely low-risk sleeper. How they might surprise: Like I stated above, they put up solid numbers against good teams last year, and they are returning basically the same unit. If they can get past some rough games to start the season, while maintaining their solid numbers of turnovers and sacks from the previous year, then I'm wrong about them and they'll deserve to rise up the rankings fast. |
