Breaking Down Team Defenses (Tier 2)Freelance Submission posted 7/25 by Mike Howerton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com Tier 2 Defenses - These teams are startable in the majority of all matchups, and have a highly ranked fantasy playoff schedule. Any one of these teams has the talent to bump up a tier. Whenever 2006 fantasy results are mentioned, this is the default scoring used:
6. Denver Broncos 2006 Fantasy Finish: t-10th Defensive Losses: CB Darrent Williams, MLB Al Wilson, DT Michael Myers, DE Courtney Brown, Defensive Additions: CB Dre' Bly, DT Alvin McKinley, LB Warrick Holdman Rookies: DE Jarvis Moss, DE Tim Crowder, DT Marcus Thomas Notes: Jim Bates will replace Larry Coyer as DC. Bates should bring a much more aggressive brand of defense to this already potent unit. If Dre Bly can play up to his potential this year, you're probably looking at the best pair of CB's in the league. The DL was in need this offseason, and they spent 3 of 4 draft picks in that area, including first rounder Jarvis Moss, who should be an instant upgrade as a pass rusher. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 10
Tough Matchups: 4
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Solid Combination with: SD. Other possibilities include MIA (Both have tough W16 matchups however.) and NE. If WAS and ATL prove to be worthy defenses this year, they also matchup quite well. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: KC, @ HOU, @ SD Breakdown: According to FBG's Strength of Schedule analysis, the Broncos saw the highest increase in strength of schedule between last season and this year, and they have an impressive 5-2, ‘Easy' to ‘Tough' game ratio. Not too shabby considering they finished tied for 10th in fantasy scoring last year. They allowed 19.1 PPG (8th best) and allowed 113.3 rushing yards per game (12th), while giving up 213.1 passing yards per game (21st). They posted above average numbers of interceptions and fumble recoveries (30 total). I love the schedule this year. Even before looking at the SOS breakdown, I thought it was so much better than last season. There's a few bumps along the road, with an Indy game and two SD games as well. The good news about these guys is that they are at least consistent. Last season, they performed fairly well in games they should've (OAK and CLE), and did not perform well in games that they were expected not to (IND, SD, SEA, STL). Also add in some surprisingly favorable games against BAL, KC and PIT. Outlook: There are two factors keeping them on the bubble of Tier 1 teams. First, they do have a new DC this year. Should that automatically bump any team down? No, not at all, but be advised that there could be a slight learning curve this season, especially with a few new faces likely starting this year. Second, I hate the fact that they play SD in the fantasy playoffs, week 16. No way would I ever consider starting them against SD this year. They gave up 83 points to them last season. So, still draft them pretty high, as they do have a much better overall schedule, and should limit your decisions most weeks at the D/ST position. Draft them higher if you're already targeting a combo team, or at least a solid fill in for week 16. Why they're ranked 6th: It was a tough decision for me to rank them ahead of all those other tier 2 teams. It's risky, but I like it. They have a high amount of favorable matchups this year, especially towards the end of the season. There's also a considerably low amount of games I'd stay away from (4). Remember that great stretch at the beginning of last season? Well, that's the same stretch I believe they have towards the end of the season this year, perfect timing for helping you make the playoffs, and possibly push for a title. Still, beware of week 16. How they might disappoint: Remember midseason 2006 when they were one of the hottest D/ST commodities? Out of nowhere, they were putting up monster numbers, and had a very stingy defense. Then, right around their first SD game, they just disappeared. The same situation could come into play this year, with an IND-SD-bye-PIT stretch that might hurt owners. Add that with the fact that there is a new defensive coordinator, and bumps in the road will sometimes follow. With those circumstances, don't be surprised if by midseason they've fallen to a mid-teens or worse ranking. But I believe they're a defense worth holding through all of it, and should be rostered early in every league. 7. Minnesota Vikings 2006 Fantasy Finish: 6th Defensive Losses: MLB Napolean Harris, CB Fred Smoot, DT Ross Kolokziej Defensive Additions: SS Mike Doss, LB Vinny Ciurciu Rookies: CB Marcus McCauley, DE Brian Robison, LB Rufus Alexander Notes: I'm not too excited about free agency this year, as the losses do outweigh the additions. MLB Napolean Harris had a solid year last year, and his loss will hurt their impressive run defense. They should remain very solid against the run, as long as Pro Bowl DT Pat Williams and Kevin Williams stay healthy. They will get Chad Greenway back this season, after a full season of injury. After injuring his knee in the 2nd game of the season last year, DE Erasmus James has been brought along slowly so far this offseason If he's ready to go this season, he should immediately impact this unit as a pass rusher, an area of need coming into this season. Another acquisition worth noting is new DC Leslie Frazier. He spent two years with Cincinnati, where they were not a stranger to forcing turnovers. I'm not automatically bumping them down just because of a new DC, as plenty of higher ranked teams have also lost defensive coordinators. There's something to work with here. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
As stingy as they come against opposing RBs. 2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 10
Tough Matchups: 5
Teams with great bye-week matchups
Solid Combination with: KC (SF, TEN, DET fantasy playoff combo). Other possibilities include IND (Although they share a tough week 9 matchup, their playoff combo consists of SF, OAK and HOU combined). Also consider CIN. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @SF, CHI, WAS Breakdown: Minnesota surprised everyone by finishing 6th in standard fantasy scoring last year. They allowed 20.4 PPG (14th), a league best 61.6 rushing yards per game (1st), but also a league-worst 238.6 passing yards per game. They also posted top 5 numbers in both interceptions (21) and fumble recoveries (15). They were just a turnover machine at times, posting at least 2 picks in 7 games. They have simply got to put more pressure on the QB. Their 29 sacks ranked them in the bottom five for that category. There is a decent schedule to work with here, as I see 10 very startable games. Plus, it certainly benefits them playing in the NFC North, as none of those teams have an offense immune to turnovers. I listed Chicago as a team to avoid, yet do keep in mind that they fared pretty well last season in both games with CHI (8 and 10 points). So keep tabs on Chicago's offense, as this could easily bump up as a very startable matchup. Outlook: Their fantasy playoff schedule is very favorable, with 2 home games thrown in there as well. If you can live with a pretty rough stretch of games weeks 6-9, I could very well see them being drafted as a DEF1 that could almost start any week. They also matchup quite well with KC and IND, so keep that in mind if you have space for another defense. Why they're ranked 7th: They drop one spot from last year, but that is due to Denver being ranked in front of them. I was actually disappointed about ranking them 7th. Had it not been for week 17's performance against STL (gave up 41 points), they would've pushed for 4th place in D/ST scoring. Taking their fantasy playoff schedule into consideration, combined with 10 possibly favorable matchups, and also playing in a weaker division, I think somewhere right on the edge of Tier 1 is perfect for this team. They might not be as talented as Pittsburgh or Jacksonville, but I believe the schedule speaks for itself. I don't think fantasy owners will be disappointed. How they might disappoint: Unfortunately, learning curves happen with new defensive coordinators. Mike Tomlin turned them into a legit fantasy defense after just one season, so it's not impossible to expect another solid year. However, if this unit fails to improve on last year's weaknesses, such as putting more pressure on the QB, and at least sustain their solid run defense and turnover ratio, you just might see the occasional head-scratching performance. 8. Jacksonville Jaguars 2006 Fantasy Finish: 7th Defensive Losses: S Deon Grant, DE Elton Patterson, S Donovin Darius Defensive Additions: S Kevin McCadam Rookies: FS Reggie Nelson, LB Justin Durant, DE Brian Smith, FS Josh Gattis, DT Derek Landri, LB Chad Nkang Notes: Losing Grant and Darius this offseason will hurt them, although they did address the secondary with their first round pick in April's draft. Having LB Mike Peterson and DE Reggie Hayward back from an injury plagued season could go a long way in helping them this year. Keep a close eye on the health of DT Marcus Stroud during training camp. He is an integral part of this defense, and if his injury slows him down, the defense could suffer. On special teams, they also added Dennis Northcutt, who could contribute as a punt returner. If Maurice Jones-Drew keeps returning kicks this season, expect a special teams touchdown, or two. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 7
Tough Matchups: 6
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Solid Combination with: OAK. Other possibilities include NO (although they do share a bye) and DAL. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: CAR, @ PIT, OAK Breakdown: JAX finished 7th in standard fantasy scoring last season. They allowed 17.1 PPG (4th) and were top 10 in both rushing and passing yards per game, as well as interceptions (20). The only negative stat that jumps out is their NFL-worst 4 fumble recoveries. Their schedule is very tough this year though. First, some very potent offenses are on the board this season (INDx2, NO, SD, DEN). Second, every non-conference team that they performed great against last season is not on the schedule this year. Add that to the fact that they were great at home, but downright horrible in away games. They averaged over 10 fantasy points per game in home games last season, even with a 0 point performance against NE W16. Compare that to just over 3 points per game in away games, with only 2 respectable games coming @ PHI and @ MIA (11 and 12 pts, respectively). The first few games of their fantasy playoff schedule are potentially dangerous. There are two home games during the playoffs, weeks 14 and 16. Keep tabs on the status of Carolina and Pittsburgh throughout the season. They had a great effort against PIT last season, shutting them out, but they will be seeing a different team this season, so be cautious. I have no reason to believe a home game against OAK week 16 will be a problem. Outlook: So on paper, there's no reason they shouldn't stay near the top of the list this season. Bottom line, I'd be reaching if I bumped them down from the top 12 teams, but I would classify them as a team that's startable most weeks, but could use a partner. If you spend an early pick on JAX, which you might have to, as I've seen them taken as a top 5 defense in many mock drafts so far, then do a little research and find a nice sleeper/combo defense to pair them with. As it stands, I just can't bump them up into my top 5 right now. Why they're ranked 8th: I'm only ranking them one spot lower than last year's finish. They have the talent to bump into tier 1, but they're inconsistencies and relatively low amount of favorable matchups has me keeping them at 8. How they might disappoint: There's just too many questionable matchups, and JAX is too inconsistent against weaker offenses, as well as on the road. I see plenty of weeks against teams like TEN, TB or HOU where, for no apparent reason, they just turn in a fantasy bust performance. It happened all too often last season. They also had a very tough time keeping everybody healthy last year, placing 15 players on IR, including many defensive players. If that trend continues this year, it will not coincide well with a difficult schedule. 9. Dallas Cowboys 2006 Fantasy Finish: 19th Defensive Losses: DE Kenyon Coleman, LB Ryan Fowler, Defensive Additions: S Ken Hamlin Rookies: DE Anthony Spencer, CB Courtney Brown, CB Alan Ball Notes: S Ken Hamlin should immediately upgrade this defensive backfield, which was one of the key reasons for Dallas' inconsistencies last year. DE Anthony Spencer could also see some significant playing time this season. Their most important acquisition this offseason has to be head coach Wade Phillips. He's made it obvious that he'll let Jason Garrett handle the offense, while he focuses on defense. Seeing what San Diego has done recently makes this promising. Phillips believes in getting after the QB, first and foremost, and that could result in some big plays from this unit. The Cowboys only had 1 sack from starting inside linebacker positions last season. Wade Phillips' new scheme should provide for some success up the middle, as he was able to squeeze out 9 sacks from those positions last season. LB Demarcus Ware led the team in sacks last year, and I'm interested in seeing what Wade Phillips can do with him this year. There's enormous potential with this unit, as they include a total of 7 first round draft picks. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 9
Tough Matchups: 4
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Solid Combination with: SD, CIN, and CHI. Also, if TB shows improvement, they have a great matchup as well. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @ DET, PHI, @CAR Breakdown: Dallas cooled off after Week 11 and ended up finishing as the 19th best fantasy scoring defense last season. They allowed 103.7 rushing yards per game (10th) and 219.1 passing yards per game (24th). They also allowed 21.9 PPG (20th). They also posted top ten numbers in both interceptions (18) and fumble recoveries (13). They were very up and down last year. 8 games were very favorable, with 8 poor performances, some against inferior teams (DET, TEN). They did manage a season-high performance against IND week 11 however. This season, they have a more favorable schedule, especially the second half of the year. Two games against PHI, weeks 9 and 15, only stick out as their potentially dangerous games during that stretch. Outlook: There's a good chance they'll finish much better than 19th this season. Their schedule is easier, and many of their tough matchups come at home this year (STL, NE, PHI). I would list their playoff schedule as one of the most favorable of all the tier 2 teams, with their toughest game coming at home, vs. PHI week 15. With potentially 9 startable matchups, as opposed to about 4 tough ones, I can put up a good argument for drafting them as a DEF1 this year. Wade Phillips is bringing an aggressive style of defense to the table, and they're a good gamble this year for fantasy production, although I'd love to see an increase to their 34 sacks from last year. Demarcus Ware could easily improve on his impressive 12 sacks from 2006, and don't forget that they'll likely get LB Greg Ellis back after an injured 2006 season. Why they're ranked 9th: A ten place jump from last year is pretty risky, but I believe it's plausible. I don't believe they've lost any ground since last year, and have added one hell of a defensive HC. It's unreal to just transfer SD's stats from last year, but I believe Wade Phillips will make a serious impact. Plus, do not sleep on them for fantasy playoff consideration. How they might disappoint: There's always a possibility for the typical growing pains associated with a new head coach. The good news is he comes straight from a superb defensive team, and has plenty of talent to work with. With a strong schedule the first half of the season, you might see a number of fantasy bust weeks along the way. Especially if Dallas continues to be very unimpressive against division rival teams. They averaged only 3.5 fantasy points per game vs. NFC East teams last year. 10. Pittsburgh Steelers 2006 Fantasy Finish: 12th Defensive Losses: LB Joey Porter, DE Rodney Bailey Defensive Additions: DT Nick Eason Rookies: OLB Lawrence Timmons, DE LaMarr Woodley, DE Ryan McBean, CB William Gay Notes: With the exception of Joey Porter, there were really no free agent moves of significance. The biggest acquisition for this defense was obviously their new head coach, Mike Tomlin. What makes it exciting for Pittsburgh, is not only a defensive-minded HC, but also the fact that he spent 4 picks in the first 5 rounds on defense. Lawrence Timmons seems penciled in to start immediately, and I believe LaMarr Woodley will soon follow. Tomlin instantly added some youth to this defense. James Harrison should move up to Joey Porter's vacant spot. Tomlin will be able to exploit DE Brad Keisel's athleticism by moving him around from a 3-point stance to the outside linebacker position. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 8
Tough Matchups: 7
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Solid Combination with: NO. Other possibilities include SD and MIA (although it would be unrealistic to expect to pair two top 12 defenses). Also consider NYJ and IND (Except they share a bye). Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @NE, JAX, @STL Breakdown: The Steelers finished 2006 as the 12th ranked fantasy defense. They allowed 19.7 PPG (11th), ranked 3rd in rushing yards per game (88.3) and ranked 20th in passing yards per game (212.1). They also had good numbers of sacks (39) and takeaways (27). Add that with the fact that they are only losing Joey Porter from last year's starting defense. There is certainly something to work with here, considering that they had a fairly tougher schedule last season. They do have a first year head coach, but the good news is that Dick LeBeau is still in town. Outlook: Their fantasy schedule is among the worst in the league. And when it all comes down to it, you want a defense that can win your Super Bowl, not just get you there. I hate two away games at NE and STL, two very potent offenses. They had an above average effort last season @ JAX (7 points), so week 15 could be favorable. They're an aggressive defense, with a new defense-minded head coach, so I can't realistically bump them down past the 2nd tier. I would however try to grab another defense to play off of their weaknesses, and one with a much more favorable playoff schedule. Why they're ranked 10th: You're looking at defense that I believe has the talent to rise up to Tier 1. The only reason I have them 10th, instead of possibly 5th, is their fantasy playoff schedule. I think it's the worst of all teams in the top 2 tiers. Now, that could all change instantly if this team proves it can handle anybody. How they might disappoint: I truly believe that this will be a better defense this season. But with such a bad fantasy playoff schedule, my concern is that they'll cost somebody a playoff loss if played every week. They're damn good enough to be a DEF1, just maybe not @ NE and @ STL. A few potential shoot-outs to end the season could plummet them down out of the top 10 for fantasy scoring. 11. Philadelphia Eagles 2006 Fantasy Finish: 8th Defensive Losses: SS Michael Lewis, CB Roderick Hood, SB Shawn Barber, Defensive Additions: LB Takeo Spikes, LB Chris Gocong (inj 2006), DT Montae Reagor, DT Ian Scott Rookies: DE Victor Abiamiri, LB Stewart Bradley, FS C.J. Gaddis, CB Rashad Barksdale Notes: If LB Takeo Spikes can play up to his ability, he will be a huge asset to this team. The defensive line was decimated with injuries last year. DE Jevon Kearse missed 14 games last season to injury, and DE Darren Howard was bothered all season long with a groin injury. 2nd round pick DE Victor Abiamiri could potentially be a major factor this season, and last year's first round pick, DT Broderick Bunkley, should finally see the field as well. Untested LB Chris Gocong will make the transition this year from DE to OLB. So far DC Jim Johnson has been pleased with his progress through minicamps and OTAs Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 9
Tough Matchups: 6
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
MIA (@ HOU) Solid Combination with: IND. (They face TB, ATL, OAK and HOU during Philly's bye week/tough matchups.) Other possibilities include CIN (although they share a bye week, they counter a rough fantasy playoff schedule very well.). Another combo that might work is ARI. If Arizona starts performing well defensively, consider pairing them up. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: NYG, @DAL, @NO Breakdown: Philly bounced back from a horrible 2005 season and finished 2006 as the 8th ranked fantasy defense. They averaged 136.4 rushing yards per game (26th) and 191.7 passing yards per game (9th). They were a top 10 producer in sacks, and finished in the top half of the league in turnovers as well. They were pretty consistent in matchups last season, with the only negative-points performance coming @ IND, a game I'm sure many avoided anyway. They also performed great against all division rivals (Averaging 11.6 pts). There were a few other duds, surprisingly against TEN and TB, and not so surprisingly against NO. Outlook: I believe they'll be a very hot defense to start the season, with all pretty much playable matchups leading up to the bye week. Even some of their “Weeks to Avoid” games are marginally playable. FBG's Strength of Schedule analysis lists their fantasy playoff schedule as one of the worst in the league. There could be some reason for optimism however. They play NYG and @DAL, two teams that they fared well against in each game last season. I wouldn't stress two much if you had to plug them in for either matchup. Week 16 is a little tougher however, so be sure to keep tabs on how they're playing by then. NO wasn't impossible to score fantasy points on last season, so don't throw in the towel just yet. There are still playmakers throughout this unit, and it is not impossible to think that they could match last year's totals. Why they're ranked 11th: They took a slight slide from last year's 8th place finish. That's partly due to some teams jumping up my list, but they also have a bit of a tougher schedule this year, and a potentially dangerous playoff schedule. I do believe they've improved their team enough to place in the rankings ahead of Carolina. Not too mention I'd take Philly's playoff schedule over Carolina's any day. How they might disappoint: The only thing that really sticks out is the secondary. They were very efficient intercepting the ball last season, with only 5 games without a pick. There'll be new faces starting this year, and if those turnover totals takes a dip, that's the difference between a 6th place finish and a 13th place finish (difference of 7 turnovers based on last year's scoring). 12. Carolina Panthers 2006 Fantasy Finish: 15th Defensive Losses: LB Vinny Ciurciu, LB Chris Draft, S Kevin McCadam, DE Al Wallace Defensive Additions: DE Dave Ball, DT Chad Lavalais S Deke Cooper, CB Curtis Deloatch, LB Terrence Melton Rookies: LB Jon Beason, DE Charles Johnson, ILB Tim Shaw, CB CJ Wilson Notes: Nothing really spectacular happened during free agency this year. At least they really didn't lose anybody of significance. DT Chad Lavalais adds some depth at the tackle position, keeping everyone in the rotation hopefully rested. More good news, they added a few talented players to their front seven through the draft, as Jon Beason and Charles Johnson should have a chance to contribute this year. If CB Ken Lucas stays healthy, the Panthers will have 3 solid corners heading into the season, but will need to address inexperience at the safety positions. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 9
Tough Matchups: 6
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Solid Combination with: IND. Other possibilities include KC (although you'd be faced to play a tough matchup week 8 vs. IND) and NE. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @JAX, SEA, DAL Breakdown: Carolina finished a disappointing 15th in standard fantasy scoring last season, finishing pretty much in the top 10 for all categories, except turnovers. That needs to improve this season for them to be a serious fantasy contender. Anywhere from 8-10 more turnovers, and they finish right around 7th or 8th. Heading into this season, they've suffered minimal losses, and even added some young talent through the draft. Last year, they were pretty consistent against the quality of teams they played. Meaning, they fared pretty well against the lesser offenses, and pretty poor against the tougher teams. They even shutout STL for their best performance of the year. So there's hope for this team. Another fact worth at least mentioning is that most of their poor non-division games last year came at the hands of NFC East teams, and only Dallas remains on the schedule this season (week 16). Outlook: I may be reaching here, but I don't think it's a stretch to consider them a strong play most weeks, even with a tougher schedule. Their last 9 games (not counting week 17) includes 6 home games, including all of their potentially dangerous matchups. If you miss out on a top defense, and are dead-set on picking one and only one team, I believe this can be that team. But there's also some great combos out there, as listed above, to counter those Indy and New Orleans matchups, as well as teams with an easier playoff schedule. Why they're ranked 12th: Even though there's two more teams in the 2nd tier of teams below here, the top 12 is an important number in my rankings. Many leagues average 12 members, so naturally I view the first 12 defenses drafted as basically the 12 teams I expect to serve as a DEF1 for most fantasy owners. Carolina checks in at the bottom of this list, due to a very tough playoff schedule, and a significantly tougher regular season schedule than last year. I would rank only Pittsburgh's playoff schedule as worse, although I believe them to be a better defense, so they're a bit higher than Carolina. How they might disappoint: Their schedule did get tougher this year, and they have one of the toughest fantasy playoff stretches out there. That right there could spell disappointment, when fantasy owners need them the most. That is the sole reason for me starting them off towards the bottom of 2nd tier teams (yet still ahead of last year's finish). Everything's in place for a successful run though. They had a bad habit last year of losing games in the second half, and in turn giving up more points than you'd probably like to see as a fantasy owner. With a tough schedule like theirs, that could mean bad news from a fantasy perspective, and could bump them into unstartable territory during some of their tougher matchups. If you notice the trend, tread lightly. 13. Cincinnati Bengals 2006 Fantasy Finish: 16th Defensive Losses: LB Brian Simmons, LB A.J. Nicholson, S Kevin Kaesviharn, DT Sam Adams, DT Shaun Smith, CB Tory James Defensive Additions: WLB Edgerton Hartwell Rookies: CB Leon Hall, FS Marvin White, DT Matt Toeaina, SS Nedu Ndukwe Notes: The Bengals got a hell of a lot younger this offseason, letting go of a number of players in their 30's. They cut LB Brian Simmons, who may have been the best linebacker on the team, and lost S Kevin Kaesviharn, who led the team with 6 interceptions. Re-signing Robert Geathers to a long term contract was important, as he led the team with 10 ½ sacks. Hartwell should fit in quite well. He was a highly sought-after FA 2 years ago coming out of Baltimore, and is looking to prove that his injuries are behind him. CB Deltha O'Neal needs to return to his 2005 form, where he posted 10 interceptions. He only totaled 1 pick last season. Look for rookie CB Leon Hall to step in right away this season. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 7
Tough Matchups: 4
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: Chicago, Miami - W9 (@ BUF) Solid Combination with: DAL (Although equally tough week 4 matchups, they combine for a spectacular DET-SF-CLE fantasy playoffs). Other possibilities include PHI (Although they share a bye week). Fantasy Playoff Schedule: STL, @SF, CLE. Breakdown: Cincinnati finished 2006 as the 16th best scoring fantasy defense. They gave up 20.7 PPG (17th), and allowed 355.7 yards per game offensively (30th), which is mostly to blame on their 2nd worst passing defense in the league. Due to their large number of takeaways the previous year, they were highly rated coming into the season. They got off to a huge start last year, with 9 interceptions in their first six games, before cooling off before week 11. They actually performed great down the stretch, with only 2 really bad games the second half of the season (against IND and SD, which weren't start-worthy anyway). I love their schedule this year. Besides New England, and a few marginal matchups @ SEA and vs. STL, there isn't anything extremely bench-worthy. They also have the highest rated fantasy playoff schedule according to FBG's Strength of Schedule analysis. Week 14 at home against STL could be tough, as both are solid offenses, but they finish it off @ SF and home vs. CLE. Outlook: Their schedule is much better this year, with a 14.5 % increase according to FBG's Strength of Schedule analysis. Bottom line is this, they still finished with a good number of interceptions and fumble recoveries last year. There is no reason to project them doing any worse. For once they have a great schedule to work with, and one hell of a fantasy playoff stretch. For those reasons alone, they're worth rostering. I tormented whether or not to rank them higher than OAK. Their fantasy schedule was the deciding factor. How they might disappoint: The Bengals were hot and cold last year in points allowed. In exactly half of their games, they allowed 17 points or less. There were a handful of shoot-outs as well. If their defense cannot step up this year, the possibility is there for many more high scoring games. That will cut deeply into their fantasy production, likely dropping them out of my 2nd tier of defenses. The good news is, of all the teams that scored 24+ points on this defense last season, only NE remains on the schedule this year. 14. Oakland Raiders 2006 Fantasy Finish: 21st Defensive Losses: DE Lance Johnstone, CB Tyrone Poole, DT Michael Quarshie Defensive Additions: S Donovin Darius Rookies: DE Quentin Moses, CB John Bowie, DE Jay Richardson, SS Eric Frampton Notes: The Raiders spent so much attention this offseason on the offense, that they barely addressed their defense. The good news is nobody of serious value was lost. They re-signed some important players before the start of free agency, including their best run-stuffer DT Terdell Sands. Even though 5 of their first 6 draft picks were offense, they still managed 4 quality defensive picks in the first 5 rounds. Quentin Moses should bolster this teams weaker pass rush. On 10 July, they also signed former JAX S Donovin Darius. If he can return to his 2004 form, he will certainly upgrade this already potent defense. DE Derrick Burgess has averaged 13 sacks per year the last 2 seasons. There's no reason he can't keep up that production. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
Keep tabs on their defense this season, as they were incredibly tough against opposing QBs and WRs. 2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: 10
Tough Matchups: 4
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Possible Bye Week filler for: Chicago, Miami - W9 (vs. HOU) Solid Combination with: JAX , NYG and NO. Other possibilities include IND and KC (Either way you'll have a potentially bad matchup week 6). Also, if TEN shows to be a capable unit this season, they counter each other's dangerous fantasy playoff games quite well. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @ GB, IND, @ JAX Breakdown: Oakland finished the season as the 21st ranked fantasy defense. They allowed 134 rushing yards per game (25th) and 150.8 passing yards per game (1st). They allowed 20.8 PPG (18th) and posted top ten numbers in interceptions (18). They need to improve drastically on their fumble recoveries though, as they had the second worst total in the league (5). No trends really jump out from last year's schedule, except that they performed quite well against some solid football teams (DENx2, PIT, CIN). This year, their schedule gets remarkably better. At least you won't have to face SD twice with this defense, unless your league plays up to W17. Even DEN is startable, as they fared pretty well in both meetings last year. Outlook: I count 10 favorable matchups this season. That's one of the highest amounts that I've listed so far, and is very worthy of upgrading them from their 21st place finish last season. I'm pretty comfortable with their fantasy playoff schedule as well, although I can't recommend starting them against Indy, even at home. Even if you like OAK for the whole year as your DEF1, which is plausible, it wouldn't hurt to find a W15 replacement. On the bright side, OAK proved to be effective even against elite QBs last season. So watch them closely leading up to their tough matchups, as you might just have to start them. How they might surprise/disappoint: They are the highest team I have ranked that I would classify as a bad team. That could work either way this season. Even if they lose many games, if they play tough defense, many losses could conceivably be of the 14-3 nature, which would normally produce great fantasy production. Looking at last year's schedule, it was slim pickings trying to find many favorable matchups. Their schedule is loaded with potentially great games this year, against many teams that finished in the bottom half of the league offensively. On the other hand, they'll at least bump down a tier if they don't improve their points-allowed per game. They only had 4 solid outings last year when opponents scored at least 17 points, and they'll be nothing more than a top combo defense if they don't improve that area. |
