Breaking Down Team Defenses (Tier 1)Freelance Submission posted 7/25 by Mike Howerton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com Tier 1 Defenses - These teams are must-start defenses in nearly all matchups. Unless certain matchups provide a no-brainer alternative, they should be started every week. Whenever 2006 fantasy results are mentioned, this is the default scoring used:
1. Chicago Bears 2006 Fantasy Finish: 2nd Defensive Losses: DT Tank Williams, DT Ian Scott, DT Alfonso Boone, S Todd Johnson, S Cameron Worrell Defensive Additions: SS Adam Archuleta, DT Anthony Adams Rookies: DE Dan Bazuin, LB Michael Okwo, FS Kevin Payne, CB Corey Graham, CB Trumaine McBride Notes: Former assistant head coach/linebackers coach Bob Babich replaces Ron Rivera as Defensive Coordinator this season. There's talk around certain circles that he is more on the same page with Lovie Smith's defensive scheme than Rivera was. Their biggest losses on the field will undoubtedly be their defensive tackles. 2nd year Dusty Dvoracek should finally be ready to play this season, after an injured rookie year. Hopefully he can help fill that void. Newly acquired DT Anthony Adams should also see some time in the rotation as well. Keep a very close eye on the Lance Briggs situation as well, as that could all change before the season starts. I'm also interested in seeing what they do with Adam Archuleta. He really didn't stand a chance in Washington. And Devin Hester will once again be a top return man in the league. I think more teams will limit his chances at returning on them, but he'll still get some. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: *All teams in my top 5 are startable most weeks, with exceptions provided below. Tough Matchups: 2
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Solid Combination with: KC (They match up perfectly with CHI's tough matchups) Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @WAS, @MIN, GB Breakdown: Chicago finished 2006 as the 2nd ranked fantasy defense. They allowed 99.4 rushing yards per game (6th) and 194.8 passing yards per game (11th). They were 2nd in the league with 24 interceptions, and 1st in fumble recoveries. Chicago also allowed 15.9 points per game (3rd). There were only a few head-scratchers last season for weekly matchups, all basically inferior teams, including a home game vs. MIA week 9 (not on the schedule this year) and a horrible choke during the fantasy playoffs (2 pts vs. TB, 5 pts @ DET). If you can take anything away from this, it's to not over-think starting them in tougher matchups. As stated above, they were a turnover machine last year. Only 4 games all season did they fail to post an interception, and they had multiple interceptions in 9 games. With outstanding depth in the secondary, I don't expect those numbers to change much. Outlook: They're the best defensive team in the NFL this year in fantasy terms. I just can't come up with many reasons to not like them as #1. The schedule is quite favorable this year. There is a tough matchup week 1 against San Diego. Hell, if you have a no-brainer option that week, by all means go with it. But I bet you'll have just about the same odds if you just let it roll with Chicago. There's also a pretty tough stretch from weeks 11-13, including two home games. The thing about Chicago is, they rise to the occasion. The tougher the opponent, the better they play. Take last year for example. All of their subpar performances came against much inferior teams. Even after one of their worst weeks, week 9 vs. MIA, they turn around and go on a 3 game road trip, against 3 playoff teams (NE, NYJ, NYG) and average 12.6 points per game. Bottom line is, I don't see how things could get worse this year. The schedule is slightly better, they have a solid fantasy playoff schedule. Why they're ranked 1st: I can't look at what I've written and put them anywhere else. So many different reasons. One - they have a good schedule. Two - they have a great playoff schedule. Three - they're by far the best team in a weak division. Four - they have an elite return man. Also don't overlook the fact that they have approximately 7 matchups this season against QBs with less than 2 years starting experience, and they have the defense to exploit that. They're my easiest decision this year in my rankings. How they might disappoint: With a very favorable schedule this season, and very few tough matchups, they are the early defense to beat. A few things could happen however, that could bump them a spot or two. One, keep tabs on the Lance Briggs situation. Together with Urlacher, they form one of the best linebacker tandems in the NFL, and this defense would suffer without him. Two, remember that you probably won't get 5 special teams touchdowns again this year. It's just a fact, teams know now how dangerous Hester can be, and if the game is within reach, I doubt he'll get as many kicks his way. That said, I believe that none of these factors are enough to bump them down from the #1 spot. They're as safe as any defensive pick this year. 2. San Diego 2006 Fantasy Finish: 4th Key Losses: LB Donnie Edwards, LB Steve Foley, SS Terrence Kiel, LB Randall Godfrey Key Additions: None Rookies: SS Eric Weddle, ILB Anthony Waters, ILB Brandon Siler, CB Paul Oliver (Supplemental Draft) Notes: DC Wade Phillips has left, replaced by Ted Cottrell. He will stay with the 3-4 defense ran by Phillips last season, which is great news considering the talent surrounding him. They also brought in former Chicago DC Ron Rivera as Linebackers Coach. SD added nobody this year through free agency. Most could agree that they really didn't need to. They did manage to sign many of their players to contracts before they had a chance to hit the open market, thus protecting their potent defense from unnecessary losses. Donnie Edwards played at a high level last season, and has since departed for Kansas City. LBs Edwards and Randall Godfrey will leave holes in the LB corps, as Matt Wilhelm and Stephen Cooper will step in. Both are inexperienced, but have spent time learning the system. Rookie SS Eric Weddle should see plenty of playing time this year as well. He's extremely versatile, regarded as one of the more experienced players in the draft. He played CB and SS in college, as well as a little RB and punt returner as well. They also spent a fourth round pick on CB Paul Oliver through the NFL Supplemental Draft on 12 July. He was assessed by some as a potential 1st-2nd round prospect in next year's draft, so that could turn out to be a steal. And last but certainly not least, OLB Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips just might be the best OLB tandem around. They combined for nearly 30 sacks between the two of them last season. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: *All teams in my top 5 are startable most weeks, with exceptions provided below. Tough Matchups: 3
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Solid Combination with: KC. Other possibilities include DAL and BUF. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @ TEN, vs. DET, vs. DEN Breakdown: San Diego finished 2006 as the 4th ranked fantasy defense. They allowed 100.8 rushing yards per game (7th) and 200.8 passing yards per game (13th). They had an average showing in turnovers, posting 16 interceptions (t-17th) and 12 fumble recoveries (t-14th). They also posted an amazing 61 sacks, leading the NFL. They allowed 18.9 PPG (7th). Cincinnati was their only negative-points performance last season, allowing a season-high 41 points. Otherwise they fared pretty well against most teams. Outlook: There's only a handful of tough matchups on the schedule this year, New England and Indianapolis being the worst. If you have a solid replacement during those games, feel free to use them. Even if you don't, San Diego is one of the best teams out there this year, and they're capable of posting multiple sacks and turnovers against anybody. Last year they had 7 games with 5 sacks or more, and 6 games with multiple interceptions. Even with a few tough matchups, their schedule is much easier this season. According to FBG's Strength of Schedule analysis, they saw a 15.3 % increase over last season. There's no reason to believe they will fare any worse this season as a fantasy defense. Why they're ranked 2nd: They finished in the top 5 last season, and there's no reason to bump them down. Their schedule is considerably better, and they have fantastic matchups throughout the entire season. They also have a much better fantasy playoff schedule than last season, including two home games. It also doesn't hurt that they'll have standout OLB Shawne Merriman for 4 more games than they did last season. Both he and LB Shaun Phillips posted double digit sacks last year. The pieces are there for this team to pick up right where they left off last season, and rise even higher. You could put up an argument for them being just as talented as any other team in the top 5, just shy of edging Chicago out as number 1. One glance at the schedule was all I needed to bump them ahead of BAL. How they might disappoint: As with any top team, the fact that they lost so many defensive coaches does not sit well with many fantasy owners. There could be some bumps along the road, especially with some new starters this year at ILB and in the secondary. They could post a few disappointing games along the way, if started every week. As mentioned above, the New England and Indianapolis matchups are not very favorable. Things should shape up come fantasy playoff time though. 3. Baltimore Ravens 2006 Fantasy Finish: 1st Defensive Losses: OLB Adalius Thomas, DT Aubrayo Franklin Defensive Additions: None Rookies: OLB Antwan Barnes, OLB Prescott Burgess Notes: OLB Adalius Thomas was by far their biggest loss of this season. They will look to LBs Jarret Johnson and Dan Cody to replace him. LB depth could be a concern for them this season. DT Haloti Ngata should also improve on an impressive rookie season. They did not add a single player in free agency though, and they spent only a 4th and 6th round pick on defense. On special teams, pay attention to how healthy KR/PR B.J. Sams appears to be during training camp. I considered him one of the elite return men last season. He'll also be pushed hard by 2nd round pick WR Yamon Figurs, as he should see some good looks on special teams as well. Don't be surprised to see a few returns for touchdowns this year. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: *All teams in my top 5 are startable most weeks, with exceptions provided below. Tough Matchups: 6
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Solid Combination with: OAK and NO. Other possibilities include MIN (although I think it's tough to imagine getting both defenses at the right price) and CIN. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: IND, @MIA, @SEA Breakdown: Baltimore finished 2006 as the #1 ranked fantasy defense, allowing 75.9 rushing yards per game (2nd) and 188.2 passing yards per game (6th). They allowed 12.6 PPG (1st) and led the league in interceptions (28), while posting an additional 12 fumble recoveries. They enjoyed a terrific fantasy season last year. No team scored more than 26 points against them, and they even contributed 2 shutouts along the way. They posted an interception in all but 2 games, totaling 10 games with multiple interceptions, and had 7 games with 5 or more sacks. Outlook: They will miss Adalius Thomas, as well as his 11.5 sacks from last year. Enter Jarrett Johnson to fill his spot, who really hasn't seen much action the past few years. Other than Thomas, they return the other 10 starters from last year's defense. The talent is still there for them to finish in the top 5 this year. Here's the kicker, the schedule is by far the worst in my top 5. While it did get a little easier than last season according to strength of schedule analysis, there is a very high number of tough matchups this year (6). That could prove to be nothing for this defense, as they performed reasonably well last year against many high-powered offenses, including New Orleans, Cincinnati and San Diego. What worries me this season is their schedule the second half of the season. After the bye week, they have an away game @ PIT, then home vs. CIN. After CLE the following week, they have a horrible stretch of games, including San Diego, New England and Indianapolis (Week 14), and then round out the playoffs with 2 away games @ Miami and Seattle. Their fantasy playoff stretch is ranked the lowest among all NFL defenses. Since you'll likely have to spend an earlier pick on Baltimore if you want them, this is something you'll have to seriously take into consideration. Why they're ranked 3rd: This was tough. After such a strong showing last season, I don't like ranking them 3rd. But I can't look at everything I've written and automatically pencil them in for 1st or 2nd, just because they're Baltimore. Baltimore could very well be the best defense on the board this year, but the schedule does not lie. There are two very talented defenses ahead of them with much more favorable matchups, and they have to be ranked higher. Even though they're returning 10 starters from last year's defense, their fantasy playoff stretch, and the rough patch of games preceding it, is quite enough for me to bump them down two spots. That said, they are still a top shelf defense, and anything lower than the top 5 would be a reach. How they might disappoint: Depending on how your league scores fantasy defense, I'm sure you loved the fact that they scored 6 defensive touchdowns last season. That was an impressive number, and it would be pretty difficult to match that total again this year. Like I've said this whole article, there's a good chance they might be mediocre in terms of fantasy points scored during the second half of the season. If you can get past that horrible week 10-14 stretch, then they would be a fine play the final two games of the fantasy playoffs. But with a stretch like that, there's a chance they'll fall in the rankings towards the end of the season. If you draft them as a top defense off the board, don't be surprised if they finish lower than that. 4. New England 2006 Fantasy Finish: 3rd Key Losses: LB Tully Banta-Cain, Key Additions: LB Adalius Thomas, CB Eddie Jackson, CB Tory James Rookies: FS Brandon Meriweather, DT Kareem Brown, LB Justin Rogers, CB Mike Richardson, LB Oscar Lua Notes: There's nothing but optimism here. They retained basically the same unit as last year, and signed possibly the best free agent defender in Adalius Thomas. They also signed a good return man in Wes Welker. Rookie Brandon Meriweather was the first of two consecutive draft picks in the NFL Draft, and could step in immediately at some point this season. Their DL, consisting of Richard Seymour, Ty Warren and NT Vince Wilfork, are as good as any in the league. I wouldn't expect their sack totals to fluctuate very much this season, especially if everyone stays healthy. The only negatives I see here is a possible holdout situation with Asante Samuel, who's 10 interceptions last season led the NFL. Watch that situation closely. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: *All teams in my top 5 are startable most weeks, with exceptions provided below. Tough Matchups: 4
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Solid Combination with: CAR and GB. Other possibilities include DEN. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: PIT, NYJ, MIA Breakdown: New England finished 2006 as the 3rd ranked fantasy defense. They allowed 94.2 rushing yards per game (5th) and 200.2 passing yards per game (12th). They were 4th in the league with 22 interceptions, and tied for 10th in fumble recoveries (13). New England also allowed 14.8 points per game (2nd). Those are some very solid numbers. Outside of Chicago and Baltimore, they were the most consistent fantasy defense last year, never scoring negative points. The fantasy playoffs weren't extremely productive though. Except a blowout against Houston week 15, they posted very average numbers @ MIA and @ JAX. Outlook: Here's another team that has a considerably easier schedule this year. There's some tough matchups during the first half of the season, mainly SD, CIN and IND. Things get much better after their week 10 bye though. Their fantasy playoff stretch is relatively favorable, and it includes all home games. They played very well at home late in the season last year. With hardly any losses from last season, including players and coaches, and the addition of Adalius Thomas, there's no reason they can't finish in the top 5 again this season. Why they're ranked 4th: New England just might be a better overall defense this year than San Diego, who you'll see ranked a few spots ahead of them. My single toughest decision for the entire top 5 was how to rank NE compared to Baltimore. NE has a much better overall schedule, but I'm just not ready to consider New England a better overall defense. If I could enter two teams tied for any spot in the top 5, it would definitely be NE and BAL. There's a slight drop from last year's finished shown here, but I'm sure we'll all be happy if they finish top five again this year. How they might disappoint: Their fantasy playoff schedule is primarily against division rivals this year, with the exception of Pittsburgh, week 14. They had both favorable and unfavorable matchups last season against NYJ and MIA, so there's a chance that they could post average numbers this year. They do face these teams at home this year though, so that could be favorable. Although I rank them as the #4 fantasy defense this year, a high number of tough matchups during the first half of the season could possibly knock them down towards the bottom of the top ten, or lower. Stay positive though, this is a very talented defense, and should be drafted like one. 5. Miami Dolphins 2006 Fantasy Finish: 5th Key Losses: DE Kevin Carter, DE David Bowens, CB Eddie Jackson, DT Jeff Zgonina Key Additions: LB Joey Porter, S Cameron Worrell Rookies: DT Paul Soliai, LB Kelvin Smith, DE Abraham Wright Notes: Some could argue against Joey Porter's production the last few years, but he's still a great addition to this defense. Their front seven was great last year against the pass and the run, and nothing should change much this year. Re-signing big DT Keith Traylor will keep some size and power in the middle of the line, but he's on the tail end of his career. Will Allen and Travis Daniels are projected as their starting cornerbacks, but depth is a concern with Andre' Goodman having offseason surgery. On special teams, top pick Ted Ginn could be a very dangerous weapon as a return man, if he proves healthy this year. Fantasy Points Allowed for 2006
2006 Stats
2006 Breakout/Bust Fantasy Performances
Startable Fantasy Weeks: *All teams in my top 5 are startable most weeks, with exceptions provided below. Tough Matchups: 4
Teams with favorable bye-week matchups
Solid Combination with: TB. Other possibilities include CAR and CIN. Fantasy Playoff Schedule: @ BUF, BAL, @ NE Breakdown: Miami finished 2006 as the 5th ranked fantasy defense, allowing 101.1 rushing yards per game (8th) and 187.9 passing yards per game (5th). Their passing yards per game ranked better than every other team in the top 10 for fantasy scoring defenses last season. They allowed 17.7 PPG (5th). One area that simply needs to get better was their interceptions. They ranked 31st in the league with 8. On a good note though, they did finish 2nd in the league with 19 fumble recoveries. This defense got consistently better as the season wore on last year. Most of their bad performances came on the front end of the schedule. They even performed quite well during the fantasy playoffs last year, shutting out New England as well. Outlook: I absolutely love the position Miami is in this year. On paper, there is no reason they shouldn't finish in the top 5. Where do I start? For one, they saw the second highest increase in strength of schedule this year, meaning it got considerably easier. They have the highest amount of ‘easy' matchups (8) according to FBG's Strength of Schedule analysis. They still have the two games against NE, but remember, they performed reasonably well in both matchups with New England last season, especially their Week 14 shutout. The Philadelphia game week 11 could be tough, in Philly, but the only other very high powered offense on the schedule is Cincinnati, week 17. So chances are you won't have to worry about that matchup, unless your league involves week 17. They have a reasonable stretch during the fantasy playoffs, and given their performances against New England last season, I'd go ahead and leave them in the lineup during all three games. There are some reasons for concern however, which are addressed below. Why they're ranked 5th: I hate ranking a team in the exact same position they ended up in last season, especially when they've gotten better, and have a better schedule. I just can't bump any team down that's currently ranked ahead of them. Chicago is not moving from my number 1 spot, and I'd be lying if I said I believed them to be a more talented defense than Baltimore, even with the better schedule. San Diego and New England are perfect right where they are to me, so there you have it. I can live with another 5th place finish from this defense. How they might disappoint: There's a chance that the secondary could continue to provide little fantasy contributions. Of all the projected starters, only FS Renaldo Hill started all 16 games last season. This is a situation worth paying attention to early. While I just don't see them having a problem in the regular season, there's always a chance they might somewhat disappoint in the fantasy playoffs. The home game vs. Baltimore actually worries me the least. Buffalo is tricky, as they really didn't perform very well overall against Buffalo last season. And New England is just a different team this year. They've made so many changes from last year. Those two away games could very well turn out to be fantasy letdowns. |
