ADP vs. Actual Rank

  Guest Submission posted 8/25 by Doug Helton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Each year, millions of fantasy football players go through the ritual of drafting players for their teams. Many of these drafts are done online and can be tracked, giving us the availability to create average draft positions for each player. After the season has run its course, we can look back and see how well fantasy football players in general drafted.

I thought about doing this analysis for previous year final rank vs. actual rank (and I still might do that one as well), but I decided to use ADP instead. ADP gives us a better idea of what the average fantasy football player is thinking at draft time, taking into account offseason player movement, injuries, retirements, and other factors. Now on to the numbers…

The Data

To get the data I needed to do this analysis, I first compiled year-end top 100 lists for QB, RB, and WR from 2000-2006 using the historical data dominator. Next I compiled top 30 ADP lists for those same three positions from 2000-2006 using MyFantasyLeague.com ADP lists. I chose not to use 1998 and 1999 lists due to the fact that both Ron Dayne and Jamal Lewis were included on the 1999 list. Both were still at their respective colleges in the fall of 1999, so I questioned the accuracy of the ADP for the last two years. It's important to note that we are comparing players at the same position. Any reference to ADP or final ranking refers to ADP or final ranking within the position.

Next I compared the two lists, noting how many of the top 10 ADP players finished in the top 10, 20, and 30 at their respective positions, how many of the top 20 ADP players finished in the top 10, 20, and 30, and how many of the top 30 players finished in the top 10, 20, and 30. I averaged these numbers for the seven years I looked at, and got the following results:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Explanations

For quarterbacks who have an ADP in the top 10 for QBs, there is a 47.5% chance they will not finish the year in the top 10 (QB1 in 10 team leagues, solid QB1 in 12 team leagues), a 22.5% chance they won't finish in the top 20 (QB2), and a 13.7% chance they won't finish in the top 30 (QB3). Furthermore, a top 10 ADP QB has a 52.5% chance of finishing in the top 10, an 11-20 ADP QB has a 27.5% chance of finishing in the top 10, and a 21-30 ADP QB has an 18.8% chance of finishing in the top 10.

For running backs who have an ADP in the top 10 for RBs, there is a 47.1% chance they will not finish the year in the top 10 (RB 1 in 10 team leagues, solid RB1 in 12 team leagues), an 18.6% chance they won't finish in the top 20 (RB2), and an 11.4% chance the won't finish in the top 30 (RB3). Furthermore, a top 10 ADP RB has a 52.9% chance of finishing in the top 10, an 11-20 ADP RB has a 20% chance of finishing in the top 10, and a 21-30 ADP RB has a 14.2 % chance of finishing in the top 10.

For wide receivers who have an ADP in the top 10 for WRs, there is a 52.9% chance they will not finish the year in he top 10 (WR1 in 10 team leagues, solid WR1 in 12 team leagues), a 34.3% chance they won't finish in the top 20 (WR2), and a 22.9% chance they won't finish in the top 30 (WR3). Furthermore, a top 10 ADP WR has a 47.1 % chance of finishing in the top 10, an 11-20 ADP WR has a 21.5 % chance of finishing in the top 10, and a 21-30 ADP WR has a 12.8% chance of finishing in the top 10.

Key Findings

There are several things that we can gain from this study:

1. A running back drafted in the top 10 at his position is a more consistent pick than a QB or WR.
   A top 10 ADP RB has a 52.9% of finishing in the top 10, comparable to QBs (52.5%) and slightly more than WR (47.1%). A top 10 RB has a reasonably greater chance of finishing in the top 20 at his position, though - 81.4% compared to 77.5% for QBs and 65.7% for WR. This would tend to correspond with fantasy players who feel it is important to draft a RB in the first round.



2. Running backs and wide receivers drafted in the top 10 at their positions have a greater chance of being starter material than quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 at their position.
   Assuming a starting requirement of 1 QB, 2 RB, and 3 WR and that "starter material" means top 10 QBs, top 20 RBs, and top 30 WRs, a top 10 drafted RB has an 81.4% chance of being a worthwhile starter, a top 10 WR has a 77.1% chance, while a QB has a 52.5% chance. This would tend to indicate that it would be better to wait on drafting a QB in most instances. It also lends credence to the idea of having 2 QB starters. That would give a top 10 ADP QB a 77.5% chance of being a worthwhile starter, more in line with RBs and WRs.



3. QBs and WRs who consistently place in the top 10 have more value than just their projected fantasy points.
   Because of the relatively low consistency ratings of top 10 QBs finishing in the top 10 at their position and a top 10 WR finishing in the top 20 at his position, QBs and WRs who consistently place in the top 10 at their position have slightly greater value than a player with similar fantasy projections. This includes players like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Marvin Harrison.



4. Players drafted in the top 30 at their positions follow a logical progression.
   There are more viable RBs than QBs, and there are more viable WRs than RBs, so it make sense that more of the top 30 QBs wind up in the top 10, 20, and 30 than RBs, and more of the top 30 RBs wind up in the top 10, 20, and 30 than WR.

This study does not identify why players finished with the ranking they had (injury, poor play, etc.). This study simply compares where players were drafted and where players finished the season. Standard FBG scoring was used. I'm sure there is some margin of error, and I don't know if using seven seasons of results makes this study statistically significant or not, but I thought it was interesting to look at.