Maximizing Your Draft: Tips and Techniques

  Guest Submission posted 8/22 by Doug Helton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

For many, the fantasy football draft is one of the most exciting times of the year. With anticipation reminiscent of childhood Christmas Eves, you gather together with friends to select the NFL players who over the next four months will bring you to dizzying highs, mournful lows, and hopefully a championship trophy. We are all looking for ways to improve our draft, so I have listed some tips and techniques that I have used to help me get the most out of my drafts. While most veteran fantasy football players probably already practice these, those who are relatively new to the game can use these to help them build a better team.

Pre-Draft

While it's certainly possible that you could get lucky and achieve success at your draft without doing much predraft preparation, the chances of that happening are very slim. Below are some areas you can focus on before the draft arrives.

Research

As a fan of the NFL, you probably pay fairly close attention to what's going on in football. Living in our information-rich society, though, gives you the chance to gather more information about players and teams that you have ever thought imaginable. A great place to start is right here at Footballguys.com with the message boards, daily updates, articles, and blog. I can't even begin to quantify the amount of information I have gained from these sources. Some areas that should be of particular interest to you when doing your research:

• Offseason movement: What players went where?
• Injuries and holdouts: What players might miss time due to holdouts and injuries?
• Training camp battles: What players look like they are going to earn a starting job?
• Offensive lines: Which OLs got better, and which ones got worse?
• Defenses: Which defenses got better, and which ones got worse?

When doing research, be sure to keep in mind what the fantasy implications might be in a certain situation. Also keep in mind that a lot of what you read in the press during the preseason will be "fluff" pieces, overly optimistic views from members of the media. If a report seems overly complimentary towards an unheralded rookie, take it with a grain of salt and file it away in the back of your mind. If you start seeing several reports of this nature, then it might be time to take notice.

Projections

Projections - attempting to estimate a player's statistics for the year - are a big part of fantasy football success. If you have good projections, chances are you will fare pretty well in your league. If you can allot the time, I recommend at least attempting to create your own projections. The process of doing projections is a very educational one, and you will learn more about players and teams from tackling this yourself. I won't get into the different ways to create projections in this article, but if for whatever reason you decided not to do your own projections, find professional projections that you trust, then tweak them based on your expectations for various players.

Analyze your league

Another key to having a successful draft is knowing your league. Obviously scoring systems and starting lineup requirements will have a big affect on how you want to draft. Pay special attention to any special starting requirements such as 2 QB or 3 RB. Also watch for things like points per receptions - these things can greatly alter your drafting strategy. Other elements are important as well. If you are allowed to keep any players from year to year, you should keep this in mind when formulating your draft strategy. League rules do two things - they determine the value of a position based on the number of points they score, and they determine the scarcity of players at each position.

Also, you might gain an advantage by knowing the drafting tendencies of your league. If you have access to past drafts of the same league, look to see if you can isolate any trends. How many players at each position normally get selected in each round? What's the highest number of players at a certain position selected in the first round? What's the fewest? Take this information and place it into a chart for easy reference.

When looking at past drafts, take some time and analyze each drafter. Do you see any tendencies among any of your league mates? Is there a specific team that always takes RBs in the first two rounds, or is there a specific team that always takes a QB in the second round? Do some teams stick to a general consensus, and do other teams seem to take a lot of gambles? This information can be very valuable, especially if you are drafting near either turn.

Analyze yourself

Think back to drafts that you have had in the past. What would you consider your weaknesses? Were you organized? Were you prepared? Did you have the proper materials and supplies? Were there times where you thought, "I wish I had brought _____ with me tonight?" Also look at your past drafts. Do you see any tendencies in your drafting? Do you always draft RB-RB-WR-QB? Even if you see tendencies, that doesn't necessarily mean you need to change your drafting strategy. If you see some trends in your drafting, though, someone else may have picked up on this as well, so keep that in the back of your mind.

Cheatsheets

It's imperative that you prepare some sort of cheatsheet or draft list that you can use during your draft. The cheatsheet should be specific to your league, taking into account starting requirements, scoring systems, and number of teams in the league. Don't try to just walk in and wing it, or draft from a list of players that are not in any sort of order. Have a list of players in order based on your rankings with some reasoning behind your rankings is key to having a good draft. The VBD cheatsheet at FBG is a good template to start with. Some qualities good cheatsheets have in common:

• Legible - don't print them out in a tiny font
• Value numbers - projected points and VBD numbers
• Bye weeks
• Sorted by position and overall

Once you have compiled your cheatsheets, I would recommend placing players into "tiers" or "buckets." Tiers should only be used when looking at one position - you should have tiers for your QBs, tiers for your RBs, and so on. The criteria for setting up tiers is based on personal preference, but a good guide for standard scoring leagues might be separating players based on 1 fantasy point per game, or 16 fantasy points. Simply go down your list of players, marking a line every 16 points (or an obvious break) to separate your tiers. There may be times where you can "fudge" a point or two on your tiers, and you may find that 1 fppg is either makes your tiers too big or too small. Once you have completed your tiers, double check to make sure that you feel the players in each tier are of relatively equal value to each other. If there is a significant discrepancy between the values of players in the same tier, you may want to revisit your projections. You may find that your projections were not where they should be, or you may find that your perception of a player is higher or lower than what your projections say your perception should be.

Average Draft Position

One good tool in helping you gauge where players will fall in the draft is average draft position (ADP). Average draft position compiles numerous drafts and gives you an average of where a player was drafted. These lists can be found at places such as MyFantasyLeague.com and Antsports.com as well as at FBG. It's important to remember that leagues with different scoring systems and starting requirements will have different average draft positions. Leagues that give a point per reception will have a little different ADP than leagues that do not; leagues that start 2 QB will have a little different ADP that leagues that start 1 QB. It is also important to remember that ADP is just a guide - it's very unlikely that your league will mirror ADP lists exactly, but at least it can give you a general feeling as to where some players are being drafted.

Mock Drafts

Participating in mock drafts can also help you prepare for the real thing. Especially if you are fairly new to fantasy football, mock drafts can help you feel more comfortable with the drafting process. Mock drafts also allow you to try out different draft strategies and get an idea of where some players might fall in the draft. Mock drafts can be done through web sites such as antsports.com, in person with friends (although it might be wise to take the results with a grain of salt if those friends are in your fantasy league), or through computer programs such as Draft Dominator. You can do numerous mock drafts in the Draft Dominator fairly quickly using different ADPs, helping you plan for different scenarios.

At The Draft

You have completed all of your predraft preparation, and now the time you have been waiting so anxiously for is here: it's draft time!

What to bring

The simple answer to the question, "What should I bring to the draft?" is "Bring whatever you need." Everyone has different preferences regarding tools to use at the draft, and I have listed some of them below.

• Cheatsheets
• Pen/pencil/highlighter
• Draft grid
• ADP lists
• NFL schedule/Strength of Schedule/Bye weeks
• Laptop
• Notes on other teams
• Scratch paper

Cheatsheets

Cheatsheets will the primary tool that most people use for a draft. As the draft goes along, use the cheatsheet as a guide to make your next selection. For the first 5-6 rounds, you should rely on an overall list with VBD numbers that allow you to compare values among different positions. As you get deeper in the draft, switch to positional rankings in order to fill specific needs.

As you are drafting, you will want to keep an eye on your tiers. If your pick comes up and there are 7 RBs left in the next tier but only 1 WR, you could select the WR and still probably get one of the RBs in that tier with your next selection. If you drafted a RB, chances are the WR would not be available at your next selection. The more you use tiers in your drafting, the more natural the process becomes.

You can also use cheatsheets (along with ADP lists) to help you compute dynamic VBD. DVBD allows you to estimate the drop off in value between your current pick and next pick, as well as draft picks later in the draft. Estimating who other teams will select can help you determine what position would give you the best value at a certain point in the draft.

Be sure to mark a line through players as they are drafted. Not doing this could lead to you trying to draft a player who has already been selected - don't be that guy.

QBBC/DTBC

While we would all love to have Peyton Manning as our QB, putting him in the starting lineup each week without thinking twice about it, sometimes the premier QBs get selected by other teams before there is enough value for you to select one. While other teams are reaching to select QBs, you can continue to stockpile RBs and WRs, then begin taking your QBs in the mid-rounds to form a Quarterback by Committee. When looking at QBBC, you are looking for QBs who have schedules that match up well and have the potential to have banner years. Then during the season, play the matchups or play the hot hand. QBBC can be risky, but when there is value at other positions in the early rounds, sometimes the strategy can pay off handsomely.

You can use the same theory for defenses. Unless you know value either will or will not be present at the QB or defense position, don't go into your draft planning to use QBBC, but don't go into it planning to draft a QB at a certain point in the draft, either.

Draft Grid

If your league does not provide a draft grid to keep track of the draft and other teams, I recommend bringing one to your draft. This allows you to keep track of how other teams are building their teams instead of just keeping track of what players have been drafted. Knowing what teams have what needs can be used to your advantage. For example, assume you need a QB and a WR. The team drafting after you has two picks before you pick again, and that team already has four WRs but no QBs. If you select the QB you want, the other team will most likely not select another WR, meaning it's possible that the WR will fall to your next pick (depending on how many other teams select between your picks). If you select the WR, it's likely the other team will select a QB with at least one of their picks, making it much less likely that the QB you wanted will fall to you.

ADP Lists

ADP lists can help you determine value when determining when to pick a player. If you have a player highly rated that most others do not, in most cases you can afford to wait on him a little while picking up other players, thus increasing the value of your draft. For example, in the second round, the player that you have valued as the #1 fantasy football WR is still on the board. According ADP, he is usually being selected in the fifth round. If you pass on him with your second round pick and select a player to fill another need, the chances of him still being there in the third are pretty good. As you get closer to his ADP, though, the chances of him being taken by another team increase, so keep that in mind as you wait for your "steal of the draft." There is a fine line between waiting on a player in order to create value and waiting too long and having another team select him. As noted earlier, you must consider the scoring system and starting requirements when it comes to ADP so you don't under or overestimate a player's value.

NFL Schedule/Strength of Schedule/Bye Weeks

These three things are very helpful when choosing backups later in the draft. You don't want your backup QB to have the same bye week as your starter. You may even take that further to see who your potential backup plays when your starter is on a bye. If you have a player like Tom Brady as your QB1, you may look to see what QBs have potential "easy games" the week he has his bye. Also, if you believe strength of schedule can be accurately predicted, this might be another tool that you can use to help determine backups as well as be the potential tie breaker between two players you have ranked fairly equally.

Laptop

Some of you may want to keep track of your draft on your laptop computer using a program such as the Draft Dominator. The DD can be a very useful tool for keeping track of other teams and identifying value. I would not recommend using any sort of computer program aft your draft for the first time without practicing with it first, though. Also, if your laptop will need an electrical outlet, make sure there will be one available at your draft site.

Strategy

While it is good to have a general plan going into the draft (especially for the first few rounds), locking yourself in to taking a certain player or position before seeing what other players are available when you pick can derail an otherwise solid draft. With variables such as league size, starting requirements, and scoring systems, the same strategy does not always apply across different leagues. The key with strategy is to be flexible.

Post-Draft

After the draft is over, you still have a little work to do. Look over your draft - evaluate where you made good decisions, and identify where you feel you could have done a little better. Besides the players you selected, also analyze your strategy and preparation. Did you reach for any players? Where did you get good value? Are these situations that could appear in future drafts? Were you prepared enough? Was there anything you could have done to be more prepared? Was there anything you wish you had at the draft that you did not have?

It's also a good idea to evaluate a draft after the season is over. What picks panned out? Which ones did not? Why or why not? Is there anything you can learn from looking at your draft in hindsight?

WRITE THESE THINGS DOWN. If you don't write them down, chances are you will forget some of them in a year's time.

Hopefully these tips and techniques will help you better prepare for your draft, perform better at your draft, and dominate your league.