Why Ben Roethlisberger Could Be a Top 10 Fantasy QB

Guest Submission posted 8/28 by Scott Girasia, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

When you think of the top 5 Fantasy Quarterbacks your list should look something like this: Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Marc Bulger, Tom Brady, not necessarily in that order. However, did you know that in 2006 Ben Roethlisberger played one less game than Tom Brady, but only 32 fantasy points separated them. That is less then 2 points per game. (These numbers are based on a 16 game standard scoring system of 1 pt/25 yards passing; 1 pt/10 yards rushed or received, 6 pts/TD, and -2 pts/turnover). If we look at the 2006 season statistics Ben finished with 3,513 passing yards good enough for 8th in the league, 26 less yards the Tom Brady and 125 more yards then Philip Rivers, and both Brady and Rivers played in one more game then Ben. Additionally, Ben was 13th in the league with 18 touchdown passes.

In 2006 Ben got off to a slow start. First, he was involved in a life threatening motorcycle accident, and then had an emergency appendectomy right before the start of the season. Recently, former Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt said that he felt Ben was rushed back to soon. Ben disagreed, but the numbers show that Ben was not the same quarterback when he returned to the field. In Ben's first two games he threw for 349 yards, an average of just 174.5 yards a game, and he did not throw a touchdown pass in his first three games back. However, after the month of September, Ben threw for 18 touchdowns, ran for two more and threw for 3,164 yards, an average of 243 yards per game, or 3,888 yards over 16 games. Not bad stats for a guy who missed the first game of the season.

I understand that the number of turnovers is hurting Ben's fantasy value, but did you know that in his first five seasons in the league Peyton Manning threw a total of 100 interceptions? Including 23 in 2001, his fourth season in the league. Or that Jon Kitna threw 22 interceptions in 2006? Despite Kitna's high turnover number he is still considered by many to be a top 10-fantasy quarterback. Regardless of the turnover numbers, Ben posted descent Fantasy numbers in 2006. I know it is now 2007, and no one cares what happened in the past. However, through the combination of current events and history we can start to see why 2007 could be the year that Ben Roethlisberger becomes a top 10 fantasy quarterback.

Ken Anderson

Anderson is the Steelers new quarterback coach. For those to young to remember Ken Anderson, he was the starting quarterback of the Cincinnati Bengal's from 1972-1984, and one of the most accurate short yardage passers the league has ever seen. In 1982 Anderson completed an NFL record 70.6 percent of his passes. I'm not trying to suggest that under the tutelage of Ken Anderson Ben will become a more accurate passer, or even that the short yardage passing game is glamorous and exciting, but if Anderson can help Ben in even the slightest, his numbers should improve over all. As far as short yardage passes not racking up the numbers, Anderson won four passing titles during his career. And with Willie Parker out of the backfield and Heath Miller at tight end the Steelers have the personnel to be successful in the short yardage passing game. With Ken Anderson the Steelers have an experienced quarterback's coach with a history of success in the league. In 1995, Bengals quarterback Jeff Blake threw for 3,822 yards and 28 touchdowns with Anderson as his quarterback's coach. Jeff Blake is not the only quarterback to find success under Anderson; Jon Kitna threw for over 3,000 yards in back to back seasons for the first time in his NFL career with Anderson as his quarterback's coach.

Bruce Arians

The Steelers new Offensive Coordinator, Bruce Arians, is no stranger to the quarterback position; in 1974 Arians was the starting quarterback for Virginia Tech. But it was not Arians numbers as a college quarterback that got him noticed, but his work as a quarterback's coach in the NFL. From 1998-2000, Arians was the quarterback's coach for the Indianapolis Colts, and tutored Peyton Manning for his first three years in the league. Under the guidance of Arians, Manning threw for 12,287 yards and 85 touchdowns. Arians success with Manning led to a job as the offensive coordinator of the Cleveland Browns. In 2000, the new Cleveland Browns had ranked dead last in points scored, 29th in passing yards and 30th in passing Touchdowns. In 2001 with Arians directing the offense, the Browns improved to 15th in points scored, 26th in passing yards, and 17th in touchdown passes. In 2002 the improvement continued as the Browns scored their most points as a team since 1987 and rank 15th in passing yards and 4th in touchdown passes.

It was during Arians time in Cleveland that names like Tim Couch and Kelly Holcomb became sleeper picks in fantasy drafts. Tim Couch had his best season in the NFL with 3,040 yards passing and 17 touchdowns with Arians calling the plays on offense. The numbers may not be earth shattering, but this was a Cleveland team led by William Green and Kevin Johnson, not Willie Parker and Hines Ward. Arians also brought back up quarterback Kelly Holcomb with him to Cleveland. From 1996-2000 B.A. (Before Arians) Holcomb threw for 454 yards, 1 touchdown, and 8 interceptions in 73 career passing attempts. In Cleveland, under the guidance of his former quarterbacks coach, Holcomb became only the third quarterback in NFL history to throw for over 400 yards in a regulation play-off game. Now with out Arians, Tim Couch is out of the league and Kelly Holcomb is fighting for a roster spot with the Eagles. Now Bruce Arians is in charge of the Steelers offense. Arians has said that he wants to scale back the playbook and throw more using three and four receiver sets. The Steelers offense should not need much time to make the transition from Ken Whisenhunt to Arians, since Arians was the Steelers wide receivers coach, and is already familiar with Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers passing game.

One might argue that new head coach Mike Tomlin is a defensive coach and will hinder the offense, but Coach Tomlin is used to working with offensive coaches Jon Gruden and Brad Childress. Besides, it is the offensive coordinator who calls the plays, and if Bruce Arians can improve the Cleveland Browns, imagine what he can do for Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers offense.

Santonio Holmes

If Holmes, who had a decent 2006 rookie year, can step up and become the Steelers number two receiver, that would help improve the Steelers entire receiving corp. In 2006 Holmes started the season on the bench, but the last four games of the season saw Holmes become the starter. During the four games that Holmes started, the Steelers had a record of 3-1 and Holmes had 16 receptions for 320 yards and 1 touchdown.

A Healthy Hines Ward

A hamstring injury slowed pro bowl receiver Hines Ward in training camp and lingered through the season. Then a knee injury late in the season caused Ward to miss two games. Even with the injuries and a lack of a legitimate second wide receiver, Ward still managed to average 69 yards a game for a total of 975 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. If you take Wards average multiplied by 16 games Ward would have had over 1,100 yards receiving on the year. Now that Santonio Holmes is prepared to take the next step as a starting receiver, a healthy Hines Ward will return as Ben's primary target.

The Running Game

For years, the Steelers have had one of the best running attacks in the league, and with Willie Parker in the backfield there is no sign of that changing. A strong running game will help take some of the pressure off Ben and keep opposing defenses honest. And the three- and four-receiver sets will open up additional running lanes for Willie Parker. More running lanes for Fast Willie may seem like a negative for Ben in the passing game, but it is quiet the opposite. In 2006 Fast Willie rushed for 100 yards or more in six of Ben's starts. In that six game span, Ben threw for 1,340 yards 8 touchdown passes and added two rushing touchdowns. In 5 of those 6 games Ben threw for over two hundred yards. Additionally, Ben threw at least one touchdown in all but one of Willie's 100 yard games. The only game in which Ben failed to toss a touchdown was against the Bengals, and that was in his second game back from the appendectomy. It was during these six games that the better Willie ran the better Ben played. Ben had a 264 yard three touchdown game against the Saints, a game where Willie Parker ran for over 200 yards and two scores. Later in the season Fast Willie added a second 200 plus yard game against the Browns. Ben responded with 225 yards, 1 touchdown pass and a rushing touchdown of his own. A quarterback's stats improving with the running game should not be a surprise. Even in the world of fantasy football top quarterback's have been supported by top running backs. Some examples from fantasy seasons past include John Elway / Terrell Davis, Kurt Warner / Marshall Faulk, Marc Bulger / Steven Jackson, Trent Green / Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson, Peyton Manning / Edgerrin James, now we may be able to add Ben Roethlisberger / Willie Parker to this list.

Large Targets

The Steelers already had a huge target in TE Heath Miller, but in the 2007 draft they added 3rd round pick Matt Spaeth and 7th round pick Dallas Baker. This trio could add to an increase in red zone passes for Ben.

Ben Can Run

Ben is not afraid to run with the ball. If the pass protection breaks down Ben has the size and legs to scramble around till one of his receivers can get open, and if he can't find a receiver he is not afraid to run with the ball. He will not put up rushing numbers like Michael Vick or Vince Young, but Ben will run in the occasional touchdown. In 2006 Ben ran for 2 touchdowns, that is two more then Marc Bulger, Philip Rivers, or Tom Brady.

Your next question might be why do I believe that Ben can turn all of this into success? Well because he has done it in the past. In college, Ben set a Miami of Ohio school record by throwing 84 touchdowns passes in his career, and the record setting continued in the NFL:

Most wins by a rookie quarterback with 13
Highest quarterback rating as a rookie 98.1. Peyton Manning only had a 71.2 rating in his rookie year.
Highest completion percentage as a rookie 66.4%. Compared to Peyton Manning's rookie year where he completed 56.7% of his passes.
Youngest quarterback to win a Super Bowl, Breaking Tom Brady's record.
Youngest quarterback to start a Super Bowl. Surpassing both Tom Brady and Dan Marino.
First quarterback to start a Conference Championship game in each of their first two seasons.
Ben Roethlisberger was the first quarterback in 34 years and only the second at that time to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award; Vince Young won the award last year, a reward that has been won 30 times in 39 years by a running back.

Ben Roethlisberger has found success at both the college and professional level. Now, one year removed from the pressure of repeating a Super bowl, a motorcycle accident and emergency appendectomy, Ben Roethlisberger appears set to move into the top 10 of fantasy quarterback's for 2007 and beyond. I'm not suggesting that he will become an elite QB like Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer, but I do feel that he will put up similar fantasy points to the likes of Philip Rivers and Tom Brady. The difference is you can draft Ben Roethlisberger 3-5 rounds after those guys allowing you to build a solid team without losing out at the quarterback position If you are a fantasy team owner who likes to wait to draft a quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger may be the right pick for you.