When To Draft Peyton Manning

In 2006, Manning was T-3rd in overall points, equaling Larry Johnson's output. And that is in leagues where receptions count for points! In 2005, only four RBs outdid Manning, while in 2004, when he threw for 49 TDs, he scored a whopping 459 points, bettering the next highest scorer, Tiki Barber, by more than 100 points. In this format, only six RBs scored over 300 points in any of the last three years, meaning Manning averages more than 75 points better than the 6th best RB. It is true that RBs are more valuable than QBs, but they are not that much more valuable. Anyone picking later than 5th in the first round must give Peyton Manning serious consideration in a format that rewards 6 points per TD, especially if receptions do not count for points. What about more conservative scoring systems? Here are the top 10 fantasy point scorers at every position according to the FBG system (TD = 4; Pass Yd = -05; receptions = 0)

FBG Scoring System (all positions)

A more conservative scoring system makes QBs even more valuable. In two of the three years in question, Manning finished 2nd overall, and only four RBs outscored Manning in all three years combined! Looking strictly at the numbers, Manning deserves to be selected in the middle of the first round. Considering that he is a QB, he could drop a few slots, but not so far as to drop out of the first round altogether. But when other factors are considered, Manning becomes an even smarter pick than the raw numbers indicate.

High value, low risk

Every year he has been in the league, Manning has produced enviable numbers. Even in his worst season he produced 253 points, and that was his rookie year when he threw 28 interceptions. Unlike many RBs, Manning has never has a bad season, and has never had a serious injury, making him possibly the safest pick in the draft. When that safety comes with the promise of scoring over 300 points every year, it compels owners in the middle of the first round to give him a good hard look.

Manning's consistency also dwarfs that of most of the top RBs. According to the FBG scoring system, Manning was the only player to rank in the top 10 for each of the last three seasons. Tomlinson was 12th in 2004, and Alexander would have been in the top 10 in 2006 if not for an injury. Also, Johnson and Jackson were not starters in 2004, and Gore has only been the feature back for one season. All of these RBs can be argued to belong ahead of Manning, but if Johnson is still holding out on draft day, he should not be picked ahead of Manning. The question is: should anyone else be ranked ahead of Manning? We will address that question after we review the third reason why Manning should be drafted earlier than his ADP.

Quality RBs will be available in the 2nd and 3rd rounds

If an owner in the last half of round one picks Manning, the RB that he gets in round 2 will not be appreciably worse than the one he would have had in round one. For example, in a mock draft using FBG's scoring system in a 12 team league, I picked Peyton Manning with the 7th overall selection. I was able to get Ronnie Brown with my 2nd pick. The runner FBG would have selected 7th was Joseph Addai, with Brown the RB2. That leaves the Manning owner selecting a RB2 in round 3 with WRs in the next two rounds. Let us compare that to two drafts with Addai as the 7th overall pick, one with the QB picked in round 4, the other in round 6. Here is what the first six rounds produced, followed by each player's projected total points, according to David Dodds.

Those numbers are close enough to justify taking Manning with the 7th overall pick. Moreover, even with a slightly lower point total, I still prefer the team with Manning on it, because he is more likely to match or exceed his projected numbers than Brees or Kitna, each of whom has produced as many points as they are projected for exactly once in their careers, while Manning has done it twice in the last three years. By the way, Dodds projects Peyton Manning to be the #1 fantasy point scoring player at any position this year.

I am not arguing for Manning to be the first overall selection this year, although only a few years ago he was in some drafts. Tomlinson, Jackson, Gore, and Alexander should be picked first. Johnson should also go before Manning. In leagues that award points for receptions, Addai should be picked ahead of Manning, but where receptions do not count for points, the decision becomes difficult. That leaves Manning as a potential 6th pick, and in my estimation, the best player available at #7.