Fool's Gold - Week 16
Posted 12/19 by Marc Faletti, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
As the season winds down, fantasy owners are either plugging in the studs that got them this deep into the playoffs or thinking about next year. Last week, we discussed players who might fall off down the stretch based on their remaining schedule, and now we turn our attention towards 2008. Several running backs performed well above or below expectations this year, and this week we reveal those whose performances in 2007 reeked of Fool's Gold.
Expect these players to do a 180 in 2008:
Shaun Alexander, RB, SEA
He's not even looked as good as his numbers, and that's really bad. Pass at all times next year.
Reggie Bush, RB, NO
Bush was a massive disappointment based on his ADP, but in PPR leagues he's still in the top 16 based on weekly average. The concern that he won't be used as a traditional feature back should send him pretty far down the board in 2008 -- he could easily be a 3rd or 4th round pick in many leagues. For sharks, that represents tremendous value. Bush has a lot to learn, but he's an electric talent with a great work ethic. Those traits should help him continue to improve his game, and just a little patience will go a long way for his rushing totals. Moreover, Bush doesn't need to be used like a traditional back to rack up points, especially in PPR leagues. 1400 total yards with 90 catches and 7 TDs are still very possible for him in 2008.
Justin Fargas, RB, OAK
He's a tough kid who earned his 1000 yard season by learning to set up his blocks and then relying on his speed to shoot him through the gap. A back who can pile up nice stats on a losing team often deserves sleeper status because any team improvement will likely result in even more robust rushing totals, but don't be so sure with Fargas. He will probably get a new deal from the team in the offseason, and one has to wonder if his sudden improvement in a contract year will stick after he gets a fat signing bonus. Additionally, the team may cut Rhodes and Bush, but don't forget about Michael Bush, who has the talent to supplant Fargas in 2008. He also may be too injury prone to tote the rock for a full 16 games.
Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ
He ran hard on every play and looked good doing it, but his team held him back. If the Jets improve at all, he could leap into the top 12 very easily. Leon Washington will get 8-10 touches a game, but Jones' embarrassing TD total belies that fact that he's their man in the red zone. A *lot* of his carries were stopped at the 1 this year, and you can be sure that enough of those will turn into scores next year that he'll get back into the 8 TD range. Assuming the New York coaching staff is as smart as they say, then they'll probably realize one of the mistakes they made was going away from Jones too early in games. If they rectify that problem, look out.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAX
Any NFL team would love to have him, and I would love to have him on my fantasy team -- as a RB3. Look, Fred Taylor's the new CuMar. He's ageless and still going strong with a contract that doesn't end any time soon. That leaves MJD in a committee once again in 2008, and while I expect him to finish around RB20 with several up and down performances, you'll probably have to pay at least RB15 prices again if you want him.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR
He's the better back, and assuming John Fox is gone, we should also expect the bizarre loyalty shown to DeShaun Foster to vanish. Williams has elite feature back tools, and with the stench of this year's disappointing season on him, he'll be available cheap.
Selvin Young, RB, DEN
You'd think this season would drive home the point that the Denver running game's just too unpredictable to waste anything but flier fantasy picks on their RBs. Still, someone out there's already pegging Selvin Young as a sleeper and hoping to snatch him up in the middle rounds of their next draft. That would be a mistake. Young will always struggle to stay healthy when asked to carry the ball 20 times for more than a few games, and, oh yeah, he's no lock to get those kinds of touches with Travis Henry and Andre Hall and whatever undrafted gem they unearth again next year fighting for time.
