Faceoff - QB Vince Young, Tennessee Titans

Posted 8/8, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Maurile Tremblay

Vince Young is coming off a season in which he led the Titans to a surprising 8-5 record as the starter (including a 6-0 streak toward the end of the season), was named Offensive Rookie of the Year, made a trip to the Pro Bowl, and earned a place on the cover of Madden '08.

It's hard not to be impressed.

As much as he means to the Titans' offense, however, Young may prove to be an even better fantasy QB than he is an NFL QB. That's because Young is a more effective runner than passer at this stage of his young career, and rushing production is worth significantly more than a similar amount of passing production in most fantasy scoring systems. (Witness Michael Vick's fantasy ranking of QB4 last year even as he completed only 52.6% of his passes.)

Young suffers from an absence of exceptional targets to throw to - but his prowess as a rusher can turn that weakness into a strength. If his receivers struggle to get open, Young will tuck the ball and gain 0.1 fantasy points per rushing yard instead of 0.04 or 0.05 fantasy points per passing yard.

In Young's 13 starts last season, he averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game. Over the course of a 16-game season, that is 283.3 points - surpassed last year by only six quarterbacks. Not bad for a rookie. Quarterbacks generally show substantial improvement in their second NFL seasons (see Lewin, "Quarterbacks: Career Progression" in Pro Football Prospectus 2007), so it is natural to expect Young to improve on those 17.7 fantasy points per game this year.

And despite Young's impressive fantasy numbers last year - largely a result of his effectiveness as a rusher - he does have plenty of room to improve as a passer. He completed only 51.5% of his passes last season and averaged only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. His 66.7 passer rating was 30th in the league.

If Young can improve his passing efficiency to an extent typical of a second-year quarterback while maintaining his per-game averages of 40 yards and 0.5 TDs rushing, he will easily be a top five fantasy QB in 2007.

And those are far from unrealistic ifs - assuming Vick can avoid the Madden Curse.

Downside - by Jeff Haseley

Vince Young is an incredible athlete. He is amazing. I have been in awe since the National Championship game where he led the University of Texas, almost single-handedly, over the might men of Troy from the University of Southern California. Vince was drafted by the Tennessee Titans and took over as the starting quarterback in game two after playing some in the season opener.

Vince Young finished the 2006 season ranked as quarterback twelve. It was an amazing rookie season. Young's rookie season was one of the best rookie seasons by a quarterback in some time. But, the 2007 season looks much different for Young and the Titans. The Titans lost their top running back in Travis Henry, and the top two wide receivers in Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade. Travis Henry led the Titan running game to a top five finish in rushing yards. Now, the Titans will rely on disappointing LenDale White, injury-prone Chris Brown, and raw rookie Chris Henry. The Titan run game will not be what it was in 2006. The Titans also lost two receivers that combined for 79 catches in 2006. That may not sound like a lot, but the remaining Titan receivers only had 45 total catches for Tennessee, and that includes David Givens who may not play in 2007 due to an injury. The passing game is in a period of transition. The Titans just signed Eric Moulds, who was not even asked back in Houston and the Texans are more desperate for receivers than the Titans. The entire offense is in transition and 2007 does not look pretty.

Vince Young finishes his rookie season as quarterback twelve. He loses the best running back and the two top receivers and is now being drafted as the ninth quarterback off of the board. That makes no sense. Even the Footballguys.com staff has Young ranked as the eighth best quarterback. To make things worse for the superstitious fantasy owner, Young was the dreaded cover boy for Madden in 2007. The 2007 season for Vince Young and the Titans looks bleak. Young is a player who is as exciting as any in the game. But, for fantasy owners, he is way overvalued and should be avoided.