Faceoff - RB Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Posted 7/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Yudkin

Cadillac Williams is currently ranked 20th by the FBG staff and has an ADP of RB 22. Last year was a disaster for Tampa Bay and the team hopes to start fresh in 2007. Williams should benefit from better health to the offensive line, and if Williams can avoid injuries should be able to rank better than expectations due to the workload that he should receive.

Like most running backs, Williams has done very well on a per game basis when given the ball extensively. In 12 career games with at least 20 carries, he's averaged 110 rushing yards. The Bucs went 9-3 (.750) in those games (with two of the losses by three points). The team dipped to 6-14 (.300) when Caddy did not get 20 carries (or did not play) over the past two seasons. Clearly, Williams did not win those games by himself, but the team certainly fared better with him wearing down defenses and chewing up clock.

And I'd take the "over" on Williams besting his 2006 touchdown total (he had but one touchdown on the season). Up until now, he's scored an alarmingly low amount of touchdowns (one every 81 touches), but we all know that TD scoring can vary greatly from year to year. Prior to last year, Jon Gruden-coached teams had averaged 14 touchdowns by running backs. The Bucs running back corps scored 16 TD in 2005 but slumped to only five scores in 2006. Look for a rebound in 2007.

Tampa Bay scored 89 fewer points and had 480 fewer yards of offensive last year compared to the 2006 season. The triumpherent of Chris Simms, Tim Rattay, and Bruce Gradkowski left a lot to be desired, and steadier quarterback play should go a long way in opening up running lanes for Williams.

Cadillac Williams may not make an assault on the Top Five, but he still is his team's primary ball carrier and not really in huge danger of splitting many carries with other backs when he's healthy. Given that most of the dedicated ball carriers will be off the draft board and mostly RBBC members will be available, he should be able to out produce his draft position.

Downside - by Jason Wood

Sometimes these face-offs almost write themselves. I mean, is it really that hard to argue the Low Side of Cadillac Williams? After this year, I wouldn't be surprised if he's renamed "El Camino" Williams, because that better approximates his fantasy value.

After winning offensive rookie of the year honors in 2005, Williams COMPLETELY fell apart last season. 225 carries for 798 yards (3.5 yards per carry) and ONE TOUCHDOWN. He threw in 30 receptions for a whopping 196 yards and no scores. That was good enough to rank 39th among fantasy RBs; flat out one of the biggest busts of the 2006 season.

So fantasy leaguers, ever optimistic when it comes to RB sleepers, have decided that Williams' 2006 season was an anomaly. Fair enough, I too think he'll outperform his 2006 numbers. How could he not? But yet I see no logical reason why he can or will deliver much beyond the RB20-25 range of production; which just isn't exciting enough to pull the trigger.

His offensive line is a major question mark, so much so that the Bucs raced to sign tackle Luke Petitgout, who the New York Giants were okay with letting go. The QB situation is also untenable, with six QBs on the roster and Gruden is still out looking for alternatives (witness Daunte Culpepper).

But at the end of the day, the reason you should avoid Cadillac Williams is because of Cadillac Williams. Coming into the league his critics wondered whether he could take an NFL pounding. At 205 pounds having never been a full-time back, the Bucs still rolled the dice on him. Yet, two years into his career and it appears the skeptics may have been onto something. His constant position on the injury report means one of two things: either he's a slow healer OR coach Gruden is underplaying the significance of Williams' maladies.

Do yourself a favor, let someone else roll the dice on Williams' comeback season. He's not a difference maker at the goal line, he's not an above average receiver, he's behind a subpar offensive line, and has a head coach that is enamored with the passing game. Punt, pass & kick.