Faceoff - LB Matt Wilhelm, San Diego Chargers

Posted 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by John Norton

After being the Chargers 4th round pick in '04, Wilhelm has spent three seasons waiting for his opportunity. While he hasn't seen a great deal of action, he is not exactly inexperienced. What is most important is that when he's had opportunity, Wilhelm has taken advantage of it. The box score numbers haven't been explosive but then he hasn't held a full time role so that's to be expected. What matters is that despite the limited action, he has impressed the coaching staff so much that they are confident in his ability to step into the starting role. Wilhelm is obviously unproven but the situation he now finds himself in is anything but. He replaces the departed Donnie Edwards, who in 5 seasons with the Chargers, never fell short of 100 solo tackles and never finished worse than 3rd in the final fantasy rankings. Edwards is a phenomenal player and I won't begin to claim that Wilhelm is of equal talent. He is however a good linebacker and there can be no argument that the situation he steps into is easily among the most fantasy productive that the game has to offer. The one big risk here is that until we see them in action, there is no way to know what the Chargers personnel package will be in passing situations. Wilhelm is joined at ILB by fellow first time starter Stephen Cooper, who has replaced Randal Godfrey. In the base defense Wilhelm will line up at right ILB just as Edwards did, but few linebackers in the history of the game have been as strong in coverage as Edwards and it remains to be seen who will handle the nickel linebacker role now that he is gone. If Wilhelm can secure that role as well, he could be a 90+ tackle guy with decent big play production and a likely top 15 ranking. Even if he isn't on the field in every situation, he should easily break the 80 solo tackle mark and land in the top 25.

Downside - by Aaron Rudnicki

It seems like there are players like this every single season on both sides of the ball. They are everybody's favorite picks as a fantasy sleeper early on in the offseason, but eventually they get so much attention that they actually become overvalued. I believe that exact phenomenon has happened with Wilhelm. The Chargers parted ways with their two veteran inside linebackers Donnie Edwards and Randall Godfrey this offseason and will replace them with two young guys in Matt Wilhelm and Stephen Cooper. Since Wilhelm is expected to take over the same position that Donnie Edwards played the past few years, IDP owners are salivating at the possibility that a guy they found on the waiver wire in most leagues could put up top-5 type numbers. Those types of expectations are far from realistic, however, as Wilhelm doesn't really have the same instincts, experience, athleticism, or skill set that helped make Edwards the fantasy stud he was. While some players are a product of the system they play in, I think Edwards was a player who would be very successful no matter what system he played in and he proved that throughout the course of his career. Wilhelm, in contrast, is completely unproven at this point in his career. There is certainly a lot of positive buzz surrounding him and he was an exceptional linebacker in college, but my impression of him is that he's a bit of an overachiever who is a bit stiff in coverage but works hard and defends the run well. If he doesn't hold up well in coverage, he's in danger of being replaced in passing situations and that could wind up limiting his numbers considerably. I think Wilhelm certainly has enough upside to warrant grabbing him at a reasonable price if you can, but I think many owners looking for the next IDP stud will wind up disappointed. I happen to believe Cooper is the better football player but that may not necessarily translate into on field production if he winds up playing a less desirable position as many anticipate. I still like Cooper more than Wilhelm in dynasty leagues as a result.