Faceoff - WR Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts

Posted 6/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

When it comes time to take a wide receiver in the late second/early third, after the group of bona fide perennial #1 target studs (Smith, Ocho Cinco, Holt, Owens) is gone, Reggie Wayne may not jump out as the obvious choice. Wayne definitely emerges as one of the safest picks at that point, but what is not as apparent is the hidden upside that comes with those assurances.

A selection of Reggie Wayne is one of the trustworthy picks you can make in the early rounds. He has never missed a game in his six year career. He has a hall of fame QB in the prime of his career who has never missed a game. Let's dwell on this for a moment -- every time you plug Wayne into the lineup, you are plugging in Peyton Manning's arm and brain -- it's never a bad thing to have your fantasy team tied to Peyton in any way. He has a hall of fame partner at WR (Marvin Harrison) who has missed one significant game in the last eight years. He plays in a potent offense. It is very unlikely that any part of the foundation that supports Wayne's production will fail in 2007 -- Wayne's floor is very high.

Almost every indicator of Reggie Wayne's productivity is heading in the right direction. His targets, receptions, and receiving yards were all career highs in 2006. His numbers were good enough to be the #3 fantasy wide receiver in FBG scoring, and 2007 has the potential to push his ceiling even higher.

The one number that was not a career high for Wayne in 2006 was touchdown receptions -- he set that back in Manning's record setting 49-TD season of 2004. While another record setting season is unlikely, there are reasons to think that there will be more touchdowns to catch this year. The Colts lack a bruiser who can be counted on to punch it in the red zone. In a sign of things to come, Manning called his own number inside the red zone enough to score four rushing touchdowns in 2006. Seven of Wayne's nine touchdown catches came in the red zone, three came inside the five. As the Colts rely less on the run to score, they should rely more on Wayne.

There are some more remote possibilities that could cause Wayne's numbers to explode. As reliable as Marvin Harrison has been, the years have to catch up to him eventually. If that happens, Wayne could be looking at a year more like Harrison's 2002 (143/1722/11 - the last year before Wayne was a true #2) than anything he's done thus far in his career. The Colts also have a target on their back as the Super Bowl champs. Even bad teams will play them tougher, and they are unlikely to be running out the clock in blowouts.

Wayne's foundation is as solid as they come, and it can support a towering amount of production -- don't be afraid to pull the trigger after the top 4 WRs are off the board.

Downside - by Colin Dowling

It's not easy to find something wrong with Reggie Wayne. Not easy at all. In Wayne's last three seasons, he has produced numbers that would make any fantasy owner proud. In those seasons, Wayne has averaged 82 receptions, 1,191 yards, and just shy of 9 touchdowns. As important, Reggie Wayne hasn't missed a game in five seasons. There is a lot to like, no -- LOVE, about Reggie Wayne.

With that kind of praise and consistency, what could possibly represent a low-side for Reggie Wayne? Simply put, I think this is the best you can expect from Reggie Wayne. Not that these numbers are a bad thing, but with Marvin Harrison still chugging along on the other side of the field and, more importantly, Peyton Manning working harder than ever to utilize every player on the field, it is hard to imagine that Reggie Wayne will ever be a 100 catch, 1,400 yard, double-digit touchdown receiver now or in the near future.

Reggie Wayne's current average draft position (ADP) is as WR5, right around the end of the second round. Interestingly, Wayne is being selected just ahead of his teammate Marvin Harrison. Clearly, fantasy football players realize that both players have plenty of opportunity for production in the Indianapolis offense and value them as near equals.

The problem with selecting Reggie Wayne so highly is that you must pass on your second running back for a player that has very little chance of greatly exceeding your expectations at the receiver position. Wayne will be given every chance to produce as a top five receiver, and assuming he stays healthy, he likely will. But the presence of Marvin Harrison, Joe Addai, Dallas Clark, and Anthony Gonzalez all but make it certain that Reggie Wayne isn't going to have the kind of breakout, top-tier season that we've seen in the past from players like Randy Moss, Steve Smith, and the aforementioned Harrison (prior to Wayne emerging as a true compliment).

Would I select Reggie Wayne as a number one wide receiver in fantasy football? In a second. He is consistent, highly productive, and an integral part of the league's most potent passing attack. That said, I would do so realizing his upside is limited and plan accordingly.