Faceoff - TE Ben Watson, New England Patriots

Posted 5/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Chris Smith

The New England offense has the look of a juggernaut going into the 2007 season. QB Tom Brady is the 'Montana' of this era with his consistency and ability to lead the Patriots to victories. The Patriots addressed a weakness at receiver by signing Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker, and everybody's attention has been on those players so far during the offseason. However the player that may benefit the most with the extra talent brought in at receiver may not automatically be Brady but instead fourth-year tight end Ben Watson.

Watson is a former first round pick of the Patriots back in 2004 and has made giant strides as a player over each of his first three seasons. Both his receptions and receiving yardage have jumped up each season, and last year he was on pace for a 736-yard receiving season before missing the final couple of games. He still managed to finish as the tenth-best fantasy tight end last season, and with Daniel Graham no longer with the team, Watson is the clear #1 tight end option in New England.

Watson has the ideal size for a tight ends involved in passing situations. At 253 pounds, he is often too big and powerful for smaller defensive backs to slow down near the line of scrimmage, but he is athletic enough to run away from the majority of linebackers in the league. He really made strides last year in finding the open holes in zone defenses and making things happen once the ball is in his hands.

He will benefit from all the talent brought in at receiver this year in a big way. Last season, the questionable talent at receiver allowed defensive units to single cover the receivers while focusing their attention on stopping both the running game and the passes to the tight end position. Fast forward to the 2007 campaign - with Randy Moss on one side, Donte Stallworth on the far side and Wes Welker in the slot, defenses will have to gear their coverage scheme to shutting down the fast, talented wide outs, freeing up tons of space for Watson to take advantage of down the field.

Factoring in his size, athleticism, youth, confidence and opportunity, Watson has a tremendous chance to leap into the top-five of fantasy tight ends. Brady already has confidence in throwing him the football, and Watson will have lots of room to show off his skills thanks to the huge upgrade at receiver. There is no chance of Watson falling outside of the top-ten at tight end this season, and nobody should be shocked if he elevates into the upper echelon.

Downside - by Andy Hicks

Ben Watson is one of many players just outside the elite level of fantasy tight ends this year. When ranking this level, upside is crucial, and I can't see that coming from Ben Watson.

First of all let's list the elite fantasy tight ends: Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap, Jeremy Shockey, Alge Crumpler, Kellen Winslow, Jr. and Chris Cooley. These players are all either the primary or secondary targets in their teams passing game.

That leaves Watson in with a pool of players fighting to become fantasy starters. There isn't much between these guys, but here are six that are better options than Watson:

• Vernon Davis has the potential to join the very top group. He flashed game breaking skills and is going to be the number 1 or 2 option in the 49ers passing game.
• Jason Witten has posted elite fantasy numbers for receptions and yardage in each of the last three years. His touchdown figures were excellent until last year. This year that will improve.
• Dallas Clark is the No.3 option the Colts need and given the stellar numbers Peyton Manning puts up every year, has great value. It will be a year or two before Anthony Gonzalez will attempt to take this role.
• L.J. Smith is a safe starting option with numbers that won't be radically different to the last two years.
• Heath Miller is a proven red zone threat and with a stronger passing game should crack a top 12 spot this year.
• Randy McMichael is probably the riskiest of the group. He moves from Miami to St. Louis but has been a top 12 tight end in every year of his career.

Why doesn't Ben Watson deserve to be ahead of these guys?

Last season was his chance to shine. He was the No.1 target on a team lacking quality passing options, but failed to deliver stats that a No.1 receiver should. To address this, in come Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker, all of who could get more targets than Watson. Not only does Watson have to worry about these guys stealing looks, he has second-year prospect David Thomas lurking. Thomas is highly rated within the Patriots organization and it wouldn't be a shock to see a split that will not please Watson owners. With Kevin Faulk and Laurence Maroney also to be heavily involved in the passing game the prospects for Ben Watson to become an elite TE are remote. Another concern with Watson is his tendency to miss games. He has yet to play a full season due to various injuries. In addition to that Watson has a habit of losing concentration and was responsible for numerous drops and even worse fumbled the ball on crucial occasions.

Watson, unlike many of his rivals, has little upside heading into 2007. He has always had the ability to make it and last year had the opportunity. This year he won't.