Faceoff - WR Javon Walker, Denver Broncos

Posted 7/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Maurile Tremblay

Playing for a new team on a newly reconstructed ACL last year, Walker reestablished himself as one of the more dangerous receivers in the league. He finished ninth in total fantasy points for WRs, and second in fantasy points per target (minimum 100 targets). Now, two years removed from his knee injury, and a year removed from switching teams, Walker is poised to build on last season's work.

So why is his 2007 average draft position lower than his 2006 finish? Mostly, it seems, because of a misplaced concern over his drop in production through the final five games of 2006 when Jay Cutler took over at quarterback.

In the first eleven games of the season, with Jake Plummer at QB, Walker averaged 12.7 fantasy points per game; in the final five games of the season, with Jay Cutler at QB, Walker averaged 7.0 fantasy points per game. That troubles a lot of fantasy owners, but here's why it shouldn't.

1. Five games is too small a sample to draw meaningful conclusions from. In the final five games of the season, Walker's targets dropped slightly from 8.2 per game to 7.0 per game. More significantly, Walker's receptions per target dropped from 57% to 51%, and his yards per reception dropped from 16.7 to 12.8. I'll take five seasons of data, however, over five games of data, given the choice. In Walker's five seasons in the league, his receptions per target has been 57.7% and his yards per catch has been 15.6. It seems, therefore, that the last five games, not the first eleven, were the aberration. Moreover, they were an aberration that can be explained rather easily.
2. There's a simple explanation for why Walker's production declined in the final five games. We saw that Walker's reception percentage and his yards per catch each declined over the final five games of last season. But because we are dealing with such a small sample of games, that difference in production hinges on just a few plays. In week 13, Cutler went deep to Walker several times but his throws were errant. In week 14, Cutler's deep attempt to Walker was almost intercepted, with Walker breaking up the play. In Week 17, Walker was again targeted deep several times, but Cutler's balls were uncatchable. If just two of those deep attempts to Walker had been catchable -- and caught -- for, say, forty yards each, it would have brought Walker's reception rate and yards per catch over those five games up to his career averages. How much should we penalize Walker in our rankings over two plays (that weren't his fault)?
3. The QB play in Denver should be improved this year. In 2006, Denver's quarterbacking chores were divided between a surprisingly ineffective Jake Plummer, and a rookie in Jay Cutler. Now Plummer is gone, and Cutler has a year of NFL experience under his belt. He will also have the benefit of working with the first team throughout training camp and the preseason this year. Moreover, Cutler excels at throwing the deep ball (further evidence that his missed attempts to Walker last year were an aberration), so his strengths and Walker's overlap nicely.

In summary, I believe Walker is much more likely to surpass last year's production than to fall short of it.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

Javon Walker surprised everyone by defying terrible QB play in the form of Jake Plummer and being only one year removed an ACL tear to finish as the #9 fantasy wide receiver in 2009. While there are reasons to believe Walker could improve on that finish, there are just as many reasons to think that Walker might tread water or even fall back a bit. He's a fine #1 WR as long as you are drafting him in the 10-12 range, but he is not worth reaching for in the 3rd round.

Walker was about the only thing that worked in the Denver passing offense when Jake Plummer was the QB. Walker and Plummer actually hooked up for two multi-touchdown games. He had seven of his nine double digit fantasy point games with Plummer at the helm. The sad reality (especially for Broncos fans, until week 13) is that the offense was actually more open under Cutler, the rookie, than it was under Plummer, the ten year veteran. Cutler not only used Walker and old stand-by Rod Smith, he also worked emerging weapons and fellow rookies Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler into the mix. Walker posted only 18/230/2 in the five games with Cutler, a far cry from the pace he had set with Plummer.

Cutler did have better timing and chemistry with Marshall and Scheffler because he had been working with them from day one, while Walker was working out with the first team. He and Walker will surely have a much stronger connection this year. Walker's fantasy outlook gets a bump from that likely development, but it also has taken some situational hits in the offseason. The Broncos signed three key free agents. Brandon Stokley will give Cutler another viable target from the slot. Daniel Graham will be another athletic target from the TE position and he'll also give a boost to the run game of a team that often ranks near the top of the league in rushing attempts and bottom of the league in pass attempts. Travis Henry gives the Broncos the most ideal feature back they've had since Clinton Portis. The bottom line is that Walker will have a smaller part of the passing game than a typical #1 WR, and that passing game is smaller than the norm to begin with.

Walker is a top talent, and Cutler's arm will harness his deep speed. He will surely have a few huge fantasy games. On the other hand, there's too much risk that he will be a middle of the road option when the Broncos establish the running game and keep Cutler closer to 25 attempts than 35. The offense will not run through Walker, it will run through Henry, and secondarily through Cutler's ability to use his many options in the passing game. I would love to have Walker on my fantasy teams, but only if the price is right.