Faceoff - WR Donte Stallworth, New England Patriots

Posted 6/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Baker

Donte Stallworth, a previous first round draft pick, has always been a tremendous talent when healthy. The trick, it seems, is for him to just be healthy. He's had hamstring issues since he entered the league, and other injuries have surfaced from time to time as well. For all the talk about his injuries, though, he has still played in at least 11 games in every season. The one thing we know is that when Stallworth is healthy, he can perform.

Just look at last year, his sole season with the Eagles. He began the season healthy and had 11 receptions for over 220 yards and two touchdowns in the first two games before his hamstring forced him to miss four of the next five games. But the outlook for 2007 from a health standpoint is positive and early camp reports indicate a quick, fast and, most importantly, healthy Stallworth. In his first camp with his new team, Stallworth ran crisp routes and caught several Tom Brady passes, some particularly impressive. While it will still take plenty of work for Stallworth to understand the entire playbook, early results show it may not take as long as some think. And we know that a healthy Stallworth culminated as recently as 2005 with 70 receptions for 945 yards and seven touchdowns.

Stallworth is a big play guy with elite speed who is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. With Randy Moss opposite him, he won't face double teams. Moss will attract so much attention that it's not hard to imagine Stallworth finding himself open with regularity. And with Brady, Stallworth found himself a quarterback who excels at the deep pass. It seems that the pairing of Stallworth and Brady is a match made in heaven. Few players stretch defenses better than Stallworth. He has averaged an impressive 15.1 yards per reception over his five-year career.

The Patriots have notoriously spread the ball around a lot in recent years, but they've never had the kind of talent at WR that they have now. Stallworth is arguably the most talented receiver the team has had since Irving Fryar, and while he's no Randy Moss, look for the Patriots to throw more to their receivers than they ever have.

There are a number of reasons to think that Stallworth does not produce much in 2007. Health will always be a question for Stallworth, and the Patriots have usually spread the wealth across various receivers in their offense. With Moss on the team, Stallworth also won't be the number one option. But I think having Moss will actually benefit Stallworth, as he'll get single coverage almost exclusively. And although they've rarely had receivers with much fantasy success, they've never had receivers as talented as the crew they have now, and Stallworth is their number two WR. It all boils down to his health. If Stallworth can remain healthy, look for numbers close to what he did in 2005.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

By the end of 2007, Donte Stallworth will have put up some big games. His year-end numbers should be good enough to finish as a top 40 WR, as he has in four of his five seasons in the NFL. That doesn't mean he should be drafted in the top 40 wide receivers, and he certainly doesn't merit his current ADP of WR29. There are too many variable factors in Stallworth's production to feel comfortable that you will get to reap the benefits of drafting him.

First, there are the injuries. Stallworth's hamstring injury last year caused him to miss four games and really took him out of fantasy consideration for six. This is not an isolated incident. Stallworth has battled hamstring injuries for his entire career, and the possibility of future injuries hangs over him like a dark cloud. Anytime "Stallworth" and "hamstring" is in the same sentence, you can hear a collective groan from his owners all over the country.

Then, there's the hot and cold nature of his production. His gaudy 15.1 YPC might seem like a good thing at first, but it subjects his fantasy owners to maddening peaks and valleys. Stallworth had three games in the second half of 2006 in which he could not even muster one fantasy point. If his owners got frustrated by his two catches for nine yards performance in week 12 vs. Indianapolis and benched Stallworth for the week 13 contest vs. Carolina, they missed his best game of the second half of the season, with four catches for 111 yards and a touchdown. Even his most productive season of 2005 followed this pattern. Weeks two and four brought over 100 yards receiving. Weeks three and five brought one catch for six yards -- combined.

Stallworth's inconsistency in production will only be heightened by Tom Brady's ability to spread the ball around. Stallworth will be competing with Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Reche Caldwell, Kelley Washington, and a host of tight ends for targets -- and Brady is proficient at using all of those targets. Even when he was consistently featured in a passing attack, he was an inconsistent producer. With Stallworth in New England, you'll need to be able to read tea leaves to determine the weeks that he'll go off.

As your draft gets into the 7th/8th/9th rounds, resist the temptation to take Stallworth and his hit or miss big play profile. There are too many dependable veteran and promising young wide receivers that can stay healthy and not cause you to tear your hair our trying to predict which will bring the stat line of the week and which will bring the dreaded goose egg.