Faceoff - TE L.J. Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

Posted 5/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Clayton Gray

L.J. Smith looks like a player that will have a little bit of value this season. Despite finishing as the ninth most productive fantasy TE in each of the last two seasons, Smith has been ranked at TE11 by our staff. While many are attempting to find the next solid TE, they are passing over a guy that has already shown to be a current solid TE.

Solid

One reason people are passing Smith could be that he won't be the next Antonio Gates (or even the next Todd Heap). With Smith, you will not get a difference-making TE. You will not get a player capable of flirting with a 1000-yard season. You will simply get a solid producer. In three seasons at Rutgers, Smith produced about 30 catches for about 300 yards and about three TDs. In his last two seasons as the unquestioned starting TE for the Eagles, Smith has about 55 catches for about 650 yards and a handful of scores. You also get a guy that doesn't miss games as he has missed only one contest in his four years as a pro. This is crucial for those that want to roster only one TE.

Very Productive With McNabb

In 2005, Donovan McNabb played in nine games. In those games, Smith caught 42 passes for 417 yards and three TDs. In 2006, McNabb played in ten games. In those games, Smith hauled in 37 receptions for 449 yards and three scores. In those two seasons, McNabb has played in only 59% of the games. Those games have seen Smith catch 71% of his passes for 67% of his yardage and 75% of his TDs. At that pace for 32 games, Smith would average 103 fantasy points per season, which would have ranked him seventh in 2005 and eighth in 2006 and put him fifth in among TEs in our 2007 projections. With McNabb on the field, Smith is definitely a starting fantasy TE in all but the tiniest of leagues.

How About Without McNabb?

While it would be nice to pencil the McNabb/Smith combo in for 16 games of fantasy heaven, recent history shows us that McNabb can not be counted on for a full season. When his preferred QB is on the sidelines, Smith's stats do slip to a rate of 67 fantasy points per season. That level would have put him at TE15 in 2005 and TE14 in 2006 and rank as TE13 in our 2007 projections. While those aren't stellar numbers, he would remain a borderline fantasy option.

Smith's dip in ranking this preseason is a bit baffling. While it could be explained as worry over McNabb, Smith has shown the ability to at least be a decent option with other QBs under center. There is no concern over McNabb missing the entire season, so the excellent McNabb/Smith production will surface this season. And it appears that it will be available on the cheap.

Downside - by Mark Wimer

L.J. Smith is a skilled tight end on a powerful NFL offense. The Eagles will be getting back one of the top-5 starting QBs in the league this year, assuming Donovan McNabb is able to bounce back from November 2006 ACL surgery. So why would anyone (like me) rank him below the 10 top among fantasy TEs?

The answer is simple -- I think that in the Eagle's spread-the-ball-around passing attack, Smith's ceiling is somewhere around 50-60 receptions for 600-some yards and 4-5 TDs. He was in that neighborhood both of the last two seasons (61/682/3 during 2005, ninth-best fantasy TE in the land; 50/611/5 last year, again ranking ninth among fantasy TEs). In my opinion, at best Smith may land on the margins of the top-10 fantasy TEs again this year. Brian Westbrook (when he's on the field - which he was for 15 games during 2006 -- racking up 109 targets for 77/699/4) is such an outstanding receiver out of the backfield that he limits the number of times Smith sees an opportunity to catch the ball on short-to-intermediate routes. Smith had 80 chances to catch balls last year, compared to 119 passes routed to Antonio Gates (71/924/9); 103 passes thrown to Tony Gonzalez (73/900/5); 116 targets for Todd Heap (73/765/6); 115 passes thrown to Jeremy Shockey (66/623/7); and 103 targets for Alge Crumpler (56/780/8), to name a few examples of higher-ranking fantasy TEs during 2006.

Further lowering Smith in my rankings for 2007 are the new circumstances for exciting young talents like Ben Watson (13 games played with 92 targets for 49/643/3 last year) -- he won't have Daniel Graham around to siphon off targets, receptions and TDs this year. Vernon Davis (10 games played with 42 targets for 20/265/3) has a year of experience under his belt, and last year's rival Eric Johnson is now in New Orleans. Both Watson and Davis have a golden opportunity to improve over last year's numbers (in Davis' case, to vastly improve), bumping them over Smith (due to limited upside) in my rankings.

L.J. Smith is a fine football player, but I don't think he'll better his #9 ranking of the previous two seasons in fantasy football terms - and I think there is a good chance he'll drop out of the top ten this year.