Faceoff - DL Richard Seymour, New England Patriots

Posted 6/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Bob Magaw

Seymour is 6'6" 310 and is one of the most versatile DL in the NFL. He has played DE and DT in the 3-4 and 4-3 during his NFL tenure, and has already notched five Pro Bowls (every year since his rookie season) despite being just 27. Seymour is a player that is admittedly more important in actual football terms than as a fantasy weapon. It is well known that playing extensively from a 3-4 alignment is a challenge to becoming an IDP difference maker that few DL are able to overcome. The reason is easy to identify, as they effectively function as blocking sled dummies, enabling LBs to make plays within the scheme. He has finished as the #55 ('06) and #51 ('05) DL in the past two seasons. Aside from an 8 sack outburst in '03, he has averaged about 4-5 sacks in the other seasons since his rookie year. Some DL are able to compensate for low sack numbers by racking up tackles, yet Seymour has only averaged about 30 solos over his career. I have him at #33 DL, which may be a bit high in retrospect. Though it is important to remember that the difference between the #50 DL and #30 DL in FBG scoring was only about 10 pts in '06 (a little more than a half point per week).

Some possible causes for optimism looking forward to the upcoming season are as follows. He was banged up a lot last year. Seymour had arthroscopic knee surgery in the offseason, and suffered an elbow injury which turned out to be worse than the team let on, causing his play to suffer noticeably at times. The Pats have an up 'n coming DL with the likes of Vince Wilfork at NT and bookend DE Ty Warren (who had a breakout season as #9 DL in FBG scoring, and showing it is possible to excel as 3-4 DE), as well as adding one of the top defensive free agents in the league in ex-Raven LB Adalius Thomas, who could be the best playmaker at rush backer since Willie McGinest in his prime, all which could create more opportunities for Seymour. Also, many pro football observers think NE had one of the best offseasons in the league because of their myriad additions to the OFFENSIVE side of the ball (Randy Moss, Donte' Stallworth, Wes Welker and Ben Watson are a RIDICULOUS array of receiving weapons, and shaping up to be easily the best group Tom Brady has ever worked with). If the Pats offense has their way with opponents early and often, the defense will get to play downhill and more aggressively. A confluence of the above factors could lead to an uptick in his IDP scoring and FBG ranking. While I may have Seymour ranked higher than my esteemed IDP colleagues, he is not the kind of player you should blow up your team to acquire. His upside may be as a marginal starter or solid depth in deeper leagues that break out DE and DT scoring separately.

Downside - by Jene Bramel

Richard Seymour is the defensive equivalent of Troy Aikman in individual defensive player value. He is unquestionably one of the best 3-4 ends in the league and an anchor in the highly successful Patriot 3-4 hybrid front defense. He has tremendous size and speed and is versatile to play inside or outside. Despite his perennial Pro Bowl talent, however, Seymour's responsibilities within the scheme prevent him from the same impact in the box score as he has on the field.

As a 3-4 end with two gap responsibility, Seymour isn't free to penetrate immediately off the snap. Instead, he must read the play before filling the correct gap. Because of his talent and reputation, he often draws double teams, which helps the defense greatly but keeps him from making plays. When the Patriots play a four man front, Seymour usually moves inside, again blunting his box score potential.

His career stats tell the story. In six seasons, Seymour has never approached double digit sacks and has had more than six sacks only once (eight in 2003). While some 3-4 ends make up for the lack of pass rush responsibility and sack production with good tackle numbers, Seymour has never had more than 36 solo tackles in a season. He has had only one top 25 season in balanced leagues, finishing 15th by FBG scoring in 2003. Seymour has finished outside the top 30 in every other season and hasn't placed in the top 50 among defensive linemen in the past three years.

Seymour has also been an injury risk over his career. Before 2006, he has missed at least one game every season of his career. Though he played every game last year, Seymour was limited with an elbow injury for much of the season. He also needed arthroscopic knee surgery this off-season to repair new cartilage damage while addressing an older, chronic problem.

Seymour may be worth rostering in deep tackle heavy leagues. His 11-6-2 over the first three games of 2006 suggests that Seymour has the potential to have some IDP value. But six seasons of marginal box score production and questionable durability make Seymour risky as anything more than a DL4. Let someone else roster him on name value and hope for the best while you take a chance at a player with higher upside at that roster spot.