Faceoff - DB Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh Steelers

Posted 6/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Pasquino

Troy Polamalu returns to Pittsburgh for his fourth season and his third as the starting strong safety for the Steelers. In 2004, Polamalu was the leading tackler for Pittsburgh and he followed that sophomore season with another 90-plus tackle season, finishing in the top four tacklers for his team in their Super Bowl season. Polamalu finished at #16 and at #9 in FBG scoring in both those seasons, making him a very valuable commodity in the IDP landscape.

Last season, Polamalu was on a pace for 90+ tackles for the 3rd consecutive year as a starter before succumbing to a knee injury in December which cost him three games. He had it scoped and was able to return to the lineup before the 2006 season ended, so the injury should be a non-issue for this coming year. He was still able to record seven or more tackles in more than half of last season's starts.

Polamalu is just 26 years old and is entering the prime of his career. With his past three seasons under his belt, he should be poised to put up strong DB#1 numbers again and 2007 and may challenge to be the top DB in all of Fantasy Football. Two additional factors that should contribute to this will be that the Steelers will no longer have Joey Porter at linebacker, so there will be a void to fill as far as tackles and big plays, and also Palmdale's contract situation.

The Steelers have had some trouble as of late in retaining their talent on the defensive side of the ball. Polamalu is more than likely well aware of this situation, as he is in his final contract year with Pittsburgh. He will be playing not just for his team and for his own personal goals, but also for his next contract -- the largest payday he may ever see.

Head coach Mike Tomlin has identified Polamalu as one of the Steelers' players that defy any particular scheme. Polamalu transcends any particulars of a defensive look or style, and his playmaking ability and unique talents are hard to script. It is noteworthy to see that the new Pittsburgh head coach views him in this light, which likely will afford him many opportunities to be a big play safety this season. When you put all of these changes in the Pittsburgh defense together with his motivation from his contract status it is easy to see why Polamalu may have a career year in 2007.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

Troy Polamalu is absolutely one of the three or five most talented defensive backs in the league. He might even be one of the three or five best overall defensive players in the league, but if you are drafting him as one of the three of five best fantasy safeties in the league, you will be disappointed. For Polamalu to finish in the top five fantasy defensive backs, he will have to overcome many factors pointing in the wrong direction, some of which are not under his control.

First, Polamalu has never finished higher than DB9 -- that's with the sacks, the interceptions, the defensive touchdowns. Polamalu's role in the Steelers scheme allows him to roam and freelance, but he doesn't have a set role in the scheme that funnels tackles to him, or fixes him in the box. Polamalu's career best fantasy season of 2004 saw him play all 16 games, so that's not an excuse.

Speaking of 16 games, Polamalu was only able to play in 13 games last year. He suffered concussion number five and six of his football career, and an injured MCL. The injuries stained an otherwise clean NFL health report for Polamalu, which would normally mean that there is little reason to worry that his problems would carry over to 2007. The concussions make that impossible. Polamalu had gone his entire NFL career without a concussion, which was a problem that plagued him in his amateur career. Unfortunately, Polamalu is moving into Dan Morgan territory, and he will either risk shortening his career if the concussions continue to happen frequently, or take an edge off the aggressive play that has been his hallmark. Either way, it's not good for his fantasy outlook.

Then there's that scheme -- a scheme is likely to morph towards a Tampa 2 with the installation of new head coach Mike Tomlin, who made his name as a coach in the Tampa 2. That means more deep coverage responsibilities for Polamalu and less freelancing. The team also drafted two excellent pass rushers -- Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley -- which could contribute to stranding Polamalu in deep coverage instead of having him blitz on obvious passing downs. He could also struggle adjusting to new responsibilities do more than dabble in Tampa 2 sets this season.

Troy Polamalu is one of the most fun players to watch in the league, and it's even more fun if he's on your fantasy squad. If you overdraft him in the top five defensive backs, the experience could go from joy to despair. Injuries, an inflated perception of fantasy worth, and the Steelers new scheme converge to make a steep hill for Polamalu to climb if he's going to live up to those lofty expectations -- don't be the owner that sets himself up for disappointment by taking him that early.