Faceoff - RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Posted 7/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Haseley

I believe Adrian Peterson is in a great spot with Minnesota to showcase his talents, not just for his pro career, but beginning this season. To further explain my reasons, let's start with understanding the Vikings current offensive system. Minnesota has an inexperienced QB in Tarvaris Jackson, with an equally inexperienced corps of wide receivers that features a newly acquired WR1 in Bobby Wade. Wade, in 5 seasons has only 101 receptions and 2 TDs to his name. In the WR2 slot is the disappointing Troy Williamson, who is far from a fantasy consideration after ranking only 78th among all WRs using Footballguys standard scoring format, followed by a ranking of 87 in his 2nd year. The Tight End position doesn't get any better. The combination of Jim Kleinsasser and newly acquired former Giants backup TE, Visanthe Shiancoe doesn't exactly spell production. Kleinsasser has definitely seen better days as evidenced by his 31 total receptions over the last 3 years. Shiancoe, who has been a backup TE behind Jeremy Shockey all of his career, has never had more than 12 receptions in a season. He will likely see at least double that this season, but is he anything special to the offense? Probably not. I think it's safe to say the Vikings passing game is among the leagues worst, when looking ahead to the 2007 season.

As a result of the Vikings expected porous passing offense, one must believe the running game will see significant action. Last season the Vikings were led by 5th year veteran Chester Taylor, who amassed 1500 total yards from scrimmage, which also included 42 receptions - a fairly impressive season for a RB. The addition of rookie phenom Adrian Peterson was somewhat surprising considering what Chester Taylor was able to accomplish last season. Why draft a RB then? Perhaps the answer to that question is - Adrian Peterson is not just any RB. In his 3 years of college at Oklahoma, Peterson averaged 5.3 YPC. Coincidentally, LaDainian Tomlinson averaged 5.25 YPC in the less competitive Mountain West Conference. In his last 10 games, not including the crushing Fiesta Bowl loss to Boise State, Peterson averaged 156.1 rushing yards and 1.9 TDs per game.

The Vikings would be crazy not to put that kind of talent on the field as often as possible, especially considering their lack of a strong passing game. As for projections, the Vikings' RBs ran the ball 393 times in 2006. Suggesting that number will likely increase this season, let's project 420 carries. Let's say Peterson will average 4.4 YPC (a modest number, considering his achievements in college). Let's project numbers based on % of carries that Peterson will see in the offense.

• 50% at 4.4 YPC = 210 carries for 924 yards
• 55% at 4.4 YPC = 235 carries for 1034 yards
• 60% at 4.4 YPC = 255 carries for 1122 yards
• 65% at 4.4 YPC = 275 carries for 1210 yards

Those numbers will increase or decrease based on your opinion of his % of carries or your opinion on his yards per rush. Do you own math with your own thoughts, but even at 50% of the shareload Peterson is inching towards the 1000-yard milestone in his rookie season. As for TD production, if he can average 0.8 TDs per game, which is far less than his college numbers, that's still 12-13 TDs. If coach Brad Childress, who historically likes to use one primary RB to captain his running game, decides that Peterson is too good to platoon, look out. We could be looking at a player that reaches 280 carries, at 4.5 or 4.6 YPC which would put him at 1288 yards. How's that for a RB currently being taken in the 4th or 5th round?

Downside - by Marc Levin

Adrian Peterson and incumbent starting RB Chester Taylor carry similar ADP positions. Peterson, as the RB27 and 51st overall player, is a riskier investment. True, the Vikings spent a #7 overall selection on Peterson. True, Peterson is a phenomenal talent who will eventually be the Vikings starting RB.

But, Peterson must first win a starting role from Taylor if he is to live up to his ADP. Obviously, if mid-August roles around and Peterson makes a strong case to be the team's feature back rather than split time, this article will be outdated. But, at this point, it is hard to imagine Peterson winning the feature role absent poor performance or injury by Taylor. As of this writing in mid-July, Peterson has not been cleared for contact due to a collarbone injury, though he is expected to be ready for contact soon.

Moreover, the Vikings have been discussing, and practicing, two-back sets as part of their third down offense. Taylor was a solid workhorse back in 2007. His best use is with 18 or more carries. I will admit that Peterson in a feature role has a lot of high side. But, given the current situation in the Vikings backfield, an owner selecting Peterson may have to be content with around 10 touches per game for much of the season.

Instead of choosing Peterson, an owner could choose safer RB3 options. Those options include players like Warrick Dunn, Fred Taylor, or either of the Detroit Lions RBs. Those players are more likely to see feature back time, and are more likely to produce feature back numbers. It is also much easier to predict when those players will have a good opportunity to have a significant number of touches.

If the owner is happy in the 4th/5th round with a player who might see only 10 touches a game for half the season or more, then Peterson is a high risk/high reward choice. Personally, I don't like my RB3 to be a guy who could see more bench time than game time during the fantasy regular season, even if he could blossom by mid-season. Consider this - would you rather have drafted Reggie Bush at his cost last year, or would you rather have traded for him as your RB3 at a bargain cost at mid-season? A smart owner will make a trade play for Peterson in week 4 or 5 and save his 4th/5th round draft spot for a player who will make an early season impact.