Faceoff - QB Chad Pennington, New York Jets

Posted 6/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Shick

Chad Pennington returned from two shoulder surgeries in two years to earn the 2006 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award. He finished as the number 16 ranked quarterback in terms of fantasy points while posting career highs in attempts, completions, and passing yards. For some reason Pennington is being drafted in the early twenties compared to other NFL quarterbacks in fantasy drafts. It can only be because of his injury history. If he's able to start all sixteen games again this coming season, he's a lock to finish middle of the pack in fantasy production.

The injuries appear to be a thing of the past. He started all sixteen games in 2006 and head coach Eric Mangini committed to Pennington as his starter in the coming season during a February press conference after he directed the Jets back into the playoffs. What this comes down to is trying to predict injuries. That's just folly in my book. Every player in the NFL is an injury risk. Trying to predict which players will make it isn't worth bothering about. The list of players that acquired injury tags only to grind out complete seasons is very long: Fred Taylor, Joey Galloway, Muhsin Muhammad, need I go on? When it comes to predicting fantasy production rational thought should rule the day. Pennington has been healthy now for well over a year. We shouldn't let paranoia and the past errantly influence our guesstimates of the future. I currently have him ranked as the number fifteen quarterback (one spot higher than he finished last year). Is there room for improvement in his game? Of course there is. He's still relatively young for a player at the quarterback position. Pennington has fewer than four years starting experience.

Bottom line. I'm a fan. I respect his game and think Pennington is a winner. As long as he's on the field I think he gives his team a chance to win and will produce average fantasy starter points along the way.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

Chad Pennington deserves a ton of credit for coming back from a second shoulder surgery last year to lead the Jets to the playoffs. He's an excellent game manager and his style does translate into Ws -- for the Jets. He's a good decision maker with a weak arm - one that can pop off for a good game against a weak defense, but generally has average or below average fantasy games because of the high percentage, non-vertical passing game he pilots. That may make Pennington seem like a safe (if boring) investment, but he also carries a higher than average risk that he won't finish the season as the starter.

Other than a short stretch in his sensational debut season, starting Pennington has been the fantasy equivalent of treading water. Last year, you were more likely to get a sub 200 yard game than one over 200 yards. Pennington averaged almost exactly one touchdown pass and one interception per game. These are slightly below but still align well with his career averages. Starting Pennington on your fantasy squad was better than taking a donut, but the chances of him giving you an advantage over your opponent's QB were remote. The reality is that his per game numbers were not appreciably better than vastly overmatched rookie Bruce Gradkowski and were not as good as a guy who has taken his rightful place as a career backup, Joey Harrington.

So, Pennington won't give you much more than an average QB for bye week/injury starts, in fact he won't give you much more than any starting QB on the waiver wire, even a retread or rookie in over his head. If you still aren't convinced that Pennington is barely worth drafting, consider that he may not even provide that merely adequate production for the whole season. The Jets moved up in the second round last year to take Kellen Clemens. Now that Clemens has his redshirt year learning the offense and adjusting to the pros under his belt, the replacement watch can commence. Pennington is still the official starter, but the leash can not be very long since Pennington does not really add any dimension to the offense. Even if he doesn't lose the job due to poor play or the curiosity of the coaching staff, he could lose it due to injury. Pennington played a grand total of 26 games from 2003-2005. There is no denying that he is a brittle QB, one likely to get injured based on his track record and somewhat slight build. A one-game opening may be all Clemens needs to seize the job.

If Chad Pennington was a business, his slogan would be "Bringing you painfully average fantasy totals in between injuries since 2002!" I have nothing but respect for his comebacks and gritty play, but he's not on any of my fantasy teams and shouldn't be on yours unless you start two QBs or play in a deep league where more than 25-30 QBs are rostered at any given time.