Faceoff - RB Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers

Posted 5/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

Willie Parker established himself as one of the truly elite fantasy running backs last year with a top-five finish. A new offense and the possibility of a bounce back season for Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers makes Parker an easy choice if you're picking in the 5-8 range of the first round.

Willie Parker reinvented himself last year as a true feature back in the wake of Jerome Bettis' retirement. Parker went down on first contact much less frequently than he did in 2005, and he showed the willingness to grind in tight spaces to get the tough yards. Parker assumed the role of the go-to guy inside the five, scoring ten of his 13 rushing TDs in that crucial area of the field. Many assumed that Pittsburgh would bring in another big back after Bettis' departure, but they did not for the second straight season, which means Parker will still be called on to get the toughest and most valuable of all fantasy assignments.

One thing that did not change during Parker's transformation was his signature speed. "Fast Willie" is still the best threat from the RB position to take any run to the house. Bruce Arians, the Steelers new offensive coordinator, is planning to put Parker's speed in more combustible situations with three- and four-WR sets that spread the defense and give Parker bigger gaps. There are also plans afoot to get the ball to Parker in space in the passing game. Parker scored three touchdowns on receptions last year, and this number could grow with a new commitment to take advantage of Parker's game breaking ability.

While Parker was galloping to a top-five fantasy finish, Ben Roethlisberger was woozily struggling through his worst year as a pro. Defenses were able to thwart Parker with eight (and sometimes more) in the box because the Steelers predictably relied on their running game. When the Steelers fell behind early, Parker was rendered almost useless. Five games saw Parker get less than 15 carries. Any sort of improvement in the play of Roethlisberger and Steeler passing game should translate to improvement in Parker's numbers.

The first round is fraught with risk, but not for the fantasy GM that takes Parker. He's already broken into the top-five in a season filled with struggles for his unimaginative offense. Anyone with a first round pick falling sixth or later should feel comfortable building around Parker.

Downside - by David Shick

Willie Parker finished the 2006 season as the number five running back in fantasy points. He posted nearly 1700 yards of offense including 16 touchdowns. Is it fair to expect these numbers in 2007? Is this a player on the rise or a player that has statistically peaked? I'm betting that his numbers have nowhere to go but down in the coming season. Don't get me wrong. I would love to have Parker on my roster this coming season, but I won't be drafting him with anything other than a late first round pick in redrafts.

Jerome Bettis spent ten storied years in Pittsburgh battering linebackers in a rush intensive offense. He achieved double-digit touchdowns only twice (11 in 1996 and 13 in 2004). To expect Parker to repeat his touchdown per game pace from 2007 is unreasonable. Realistic projections must place him in the 10 to 12 score range. Parker's increased value in 2006 stemmed from the inflated touchdown numbers. Sure, it could happen again, but I seriously doubt it. There are just too many factors in Pittsburgh that make me worry about the Steeler offense.

• QB Ben Roethlisberger embarrassed himself with atrocious play in the Steeler Super Bowl win of 2005. He's continued to struggle on and off the field ever since Pittsburgh won in spite of his horrific play. The Pittsburgh offense will rely on Roethlisberger to rebound.
• Head coach Bill Cowher is gone. Mike Tomlin steps in and appears to largely be a Cowher clone with a defensive coordinator background, but will he be able to keep the Steelers focused while maintaining the historically tough and disciplined Steeler image?
• All-World G Alan Faneca isn't a happy camper. His contract ends after the coming season and he's publicly let it be known that he feels the Steelers are mistreating him. He's already missed both mandatory and voluntary practices and made it known in the press that he wants out of Pittsburgh.
• I'm worried about the Steelers. They struggled through a tough 8-8 season last year. How will they rebound? Football is an emotional game. Its easy to throw that fact aside, but without Jerome Bettis, Bill Cowher, and Joey Porter on the roster I have concerns that the Pittsburgh Steelers are inline for an ugly fall.

  I think Parker is in line to have a fine season in 2007, but I feel more confident in a small handful of other running backs. I see big things in store for Willis McGahee and Laurence Maroney. Each will be playing for a better team and seem virtual locks to get force-fed the ball. It feels a bit odd writing up rationale on why I'm "down" on a guy I project as a first round redraft pick. Further, there's very little variation on where our staff has Parker ranked. Regardless, I doubt Parker will be on many of my rosters this season.