Faceoff - RB Jerious Norwood, Atlanta Falcons

Posted 7/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Chris Smith

Yes it is true the face of the Falcons rushing attack over the past several years has been RB Warrick Dunn but that is about to change this season. Jerious Norwood is a gifted second year running back who is in a great position to have a break out season in 2007.

Reasons for Optimism in 2007

1. Tremendous upside: Norwood has a great mix of speed, quickness, size and vision. He has the burst needed to get through a small crease yet can power over a would-be tackler if need be. His vision and ability to get into space quickly both help him to get to the second tier quicker than many other backs can.
2. New Favorable offensive scheme: The Falcons are moving away from the zone-blocking scheme they have been using in years past and will be favoring more of a power-rushing attack in 2007. With aging veteran Warrick Dunn ill-suited for such a role, it appears that the starting position is there for the taking.
3. Success as a rookie last season: Last year, Norwood let everyone know that the Falcons made no mistake selecting him in the NFL Draft. He finished with 633 rushing yards on only 99 carries and looked explosive whenever he got the ball into his hands.
4. His time to shine:Many running backs take time at the NFL level to find their stride. Many star running backs had to wait behind proven veteran running backs before getting their opportunity to be the man. Norwood learned under Warrick Dunn last year while showcasing just enough to let everybody see his potential.

Comparison with other NFL running backs...

Jerious Norwood Rookie season: 99 carries, 633 yards, 2 touchdowns, 85 FP

Michael Bennett Rookie season: 172 carries, 682 yards, 3 touchdowns, 109 FP His 2nd season: 255 carries, 1,296 yards, 6 touchdowns, 201 FP

Shaun Alexander Rookie season: 64 carries, 313 yards, 2 touchdowns, 47 FP His 2nd season: 309 carries, 1,318 yards, 16 touchdowns, 262 FP

Steven Jackson Rookie season: 134 carries, 674 yards, 4 touchdowns, 110 FP His 2nd season: 254 carries, 1,046 yards, 10 touchdowns, 197 FP

Larry Johnson Rookie season: 20 carries, 85 yards, 1 touchdown, 15 FP 2nd season: 120 carries, 581 yards, 11 touchdowns, 152 FP

Rudi Johnson Rookie season: 17 carries, 67 yards, 0 touchdowns, 10 FP His 2nd season: 215 carries, 957 yards, 9 touchdowns, 164 FP

All the cards are in place for Jerious Norwood to step in and become to go-to running back for the Falcons this season. Warrick Dunn's career in winding down and he doesn't really suit the new offensive system of the Falcons. In limited action a season ago, Norwood impressed with his explosiveness, vision and power and he'll be given every chance this season to take the bull by the horns. I have his projected at 1,150 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns this season.

Downside - by David Yudkin

The Atlanta backfield situation mirrors Jacksonville's, as both feature aging but still productive veterans (Warrick Dunn and Fred Taylor) trying to hold off phenoms that posted eye-popping numbers as rookies (Jerious Norwood and Maurice Jones-Drew). In both cases, the veteran is free falling in fantasy drafts while the hype meter churns on for the youngsters.

Dunn completed his third straight season playing in every game (over his 10-year career, he's played in 15+ games eight times). His 3,662 rushing yards ranks him 7th in the league in that time span. He had the most carries of his career in 2006 and has been a regular contributor to the Falcons' offense. He also ranks ninth in yards from scrimmage since 2004 and has maintained a 4.4 YPC across those seasons. His production does not seem to have tailed off much (if at all).

Dunn continues to be unappreciated, as he has ranked in the Top 25 fantasy RB nine times. The only time he didn't was a year he missed five games and finished 27th (he ranked 12th at the time of his injury). Yet the majority of FBG staffers only have Dunn ranked in the mid- to high-30s in their RB rankings.

Norwood, on the other hand, had an off-the-chart 6.4 YPC on 99 carries for 633 rushing yards as a rookie. However, at this point, Dunn still should be considered the starter - and the team plans to get him more involved in the passing game after a career low in receptions. Dunn also has been a civic and community leader for years and was awarded as the NFL's Man of the Year in 2005. He's a fan favorite and a public relations dream - especially given the Michael Vick fiasco. Benching Dunn would be met with harsh criticism.

Norwood has been getting drafted up to two rounds earlier than Dunn in several fantasy drafts. Some FBG staffers have Norwood projected at 1,300+ yards from scrimmage - essentially double what he had a year ago and more than Dunn had with 308 touches. Norwood should see an increased workload and Dunn likely won't have 300+ touches, but that's A LOT of yardage for someone currently sitting as a backup running back. Norwood may do better than last year, but vaulting into the Top 20-25 RBs will be difficult unless he can assume a majority share of the workload.