Faceoff - WR Santana Moss, Washington Redskins

Posted 7/31, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Yudkin

Santana Moss is getting drafted and ranked somewhere around the 20th wide receiver this year. A healthy Moss has proven to be a Top Ten receiver twice in the past, and his reduced production in other years has been directly tied to hamstring problems. His hamstrings are better heading into the season, and that should again give him the burst he needs to get open and break away from defenders.

In his time in Washington, even including his disappointing numbers from last year, Moss ranks as the ninth best fantasy producer as WR over the 2005 and 2006 seasons. The Redskins offense should continue to improve, as Al Saunders mixes in elements from the high flying offenses he's been involved with in the past (Chargers, Rams, and Chiefs). All three of those teams ranked #1 in the league in points scored at some point with Saunders on the coaching staff, and the Redskins offense should continue to make strides in 2007.

Teams that Saunders has coached (in a variety of roles) have produced many other Top 20 receivers over the years. Those players included Wes Chandler, Charlie Joiner, Stephone Paige, Willie Davis, Andre Rison, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, and Eddie Kennison.

The Redskins scored slightly better with Jason Campbell leading the offense after he took over for Marc Brunell (20.2 ppg vs 18.3 ppg). Campbell continues to get rave reviews from players and coaches alike and also should make a marked improvement from last year. Moss and Campbell were able to connect three times for touchdowns over the season's final five games.

Moss remains the number one receiving threat in Washington. High profile imports Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd were marginal contributors last year, even with Moss being hampered with injuries and missing two games.

A robust rushing attack should also serve to help Moss' cause. Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts should force teams to defend the run, leaving Moss fewer defenders in the vertical passing game. He's already shown that he is elusive enough to score from anywhere on the field and at this point in his career has already had several big gainers go the distance.

With better health, an improving offense, more reps with Campbell, and a track record for an offensive system to put up big numbers, Moss could be again be in position to be a Top Ten fantasy receiver.

Downside - by Jeff Haseley

Santana Moss was supposed to have a big season in 2006 based on his Pro-Bowl numbers from 2005, but that did not happen. In fact, Moss didn't come close to his 2005 numbers - he barely reached half of his yardage totals.

• 2006: 55 rec, 790 yds, 6 TD - rank 27th among WRs
• 2005: 84 rec, 1483 yds, 9 TD - rank 3rd among WRs

I don't foresee the same trend for 2007, but I don't see him with 1400+ yards again either. He is currently ranked 20th among WRs, which if he finished there at the end of the season would equal about 9.0 FPPG (non PPR). Last year, he ranked 27th or 8.2 FPPG (non-PPR), so that would be a slight increase from those numbers.

Is Santana Moss more valuable than the 27th or the 20th best WR? That's for you to decide, but the chances of him reaching elite status once again this year are slim, in my opinion. Here's why.

Washington's future at QB is 2nd-year pro Jason Campbell. Santana Moss played in six games in which Campbell started last year. In those six games Moss had 24 rec, 46 targets, 563 yds, 3 TD. An average of 4 rec, 56 yds, 7.6 targets and 0.5 TD per game. Over a full season, that would equal 64 rec, 896 yds, 8 TD. Interestingly enough that would be 137 FP or a ranking of somewhere between 21 and 20 among WRs, which is exactly where his ranking is right now by the panel of Footballguys staff. The odds of this season's numbers matching exactly the average from last year with Campbell is very unlikely. However, it's not out of the realm of probability that he'll fall somewhere relatively close to those numbers and most assuredly not reaching elite status.

Other factors to consider when deciding upon drafting Santana Moss

• 7 games in 2006 with less than 6 FPPG
• 9 games of 50 yards receiving or less in 2006
• Played 16 games in a season only twice in his six year career