Faceoff - LB Shawne Merriman, San Diego Chargers

Posted 6/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

I'll admit it. When the Chargers took Shawne Merriman at the #12 overall pick in 2007, I wrote off his chances of ever being an elite fantasy LB. 3-4 outside linebackers opportunity for tackles is closer to defensive end than linebacker, and fantasy linebackers need to be in triple digit tackle territory to merit strong consideration -- something that is virtually impossible for a 3-4 OLB. His 10 sack rookie season was outstanding, but it was only good for the #50 fantasy LB in FBG scoring -- further proving that even the most talented 3-4 OLBs will struggle to make a fantasy impact, right?

Wrong. Merriman blew that assumption up in 2006. He finished as the #20 fantasy linebacker -- despite playing in only 12 games. He was #1 among all fantasy LBs on a points per game basis. Before you say, "But why did he miss four games?" let's put the steroid talk to rest. The NFL released Merriman's drug test results in the offseason, and the results were striking. He tested negative on 19 out of 20 times -- clearly not the profile of a habitual steroid user.

The more compelling argument against chalking up Merriman's production to steroids came by just watching him. Merriman's tireless offseason included adding 10 pounds of muscle, extended film study, and boxing training. It showed as Merriman became a more involved, more aware player when he wasn't rushing the passer. When he was rushing the passer, Merriman was nothing short of exceptional, with 17 sacks in 12 games, a pace that would tie Michael Strahan's single season record of 22.5 sacks.

Merriman's play punched a hole in the fantasy conventional wisdom about 3-4 OLBs. Not only did he take over games and lead both the Chargers and his fantasy owners to victory with five multi-sack games (again, in only 12 games played), his auxiliary fantasy stats improved enough that his low on the season was four fantasy points -- shattering the idea that 3-4 OLBs will cripple your lineup a few weeks a year. In fact, he had at least eight fantasy points in 2/3 of his games.

A closer examination of the surrounding factors in Merriman's game sets him up to stay on the blistering pace he set in 2006. He has an excellent pass rush partner that opposing teams can not ignore in Shaun Philips. The starting defensive linemen, Igor Olshansky, Jamal Williams, and Luis Castillo, are forces in their own right and punish teams that try to single block them. The Chargers are set for a Super Bowl run and should be playing from ahead a lot -- allowing Merriman more opportunities to pin his ears back and headhunt. To top it off, he had offseason surgery to fix an ailing shoulder than has been bothering him during his first two years in the league. Opposing QBs must shudder at the possibility of Merriman being comfortable physically and playing at an even higher level, but you should comfortably pull the trigger if you can snag Merriman anywhere near the staff consensus ranking of LB19.

Downside - by Aaron Rudnicki

Merriman is an outstanding talent and clearly one of the most impressive outside linebackers to enter the league in some time. It is tough to find much fault with a player who produced 10 sacks as a rookie and was named defensive rookie of the year. Then he went and backed that up with an even more impressive sophomore season that saw him collect 17.5 sacks in just 12 games. There are some problems with Merriman, however, that limit his upside as a fantasy linebacker. First, and most importantly, he plays OLB in a 3-4 defense and very few players have been able to consistently perform among the league's elite while playing a similar position. The biggest drawback for these types of players is that their fantasy value comes almost completely from sacks and big plays as even the elite 3-4 OLBs will put up tackle numbers that rank below the league average for starting linebackers. A lack of consistent tackle numbers from week to week makes them boom or bust type players to include in your starting lineup. Sure, Merriman is always going to have the potential to put up a 3-sack game in a given week (he did it three times last season), but he also has a good chance to finish with 2 or fewer solos and 0 sacks as well.

Another problem for Merriman is the 4-game suspension he received last year for violating the league's steroid policy. That places him one step closer to a full-year ban if he tests positive again. Additionally, Merriman has had a lot of success playing under Wade Phillips the past two years but he left to become the head coach in Dallas this year. Taking his place will be Ted Cottrell who coached under Wade earlier in his career, but the lack of consistency at defensive coordinator could certainly lead to a less productive year from Merriman if Cottrell has different ideas about how to use him. I also don't believe a Cottrell-coached defense has ever really produced an OLB with great fantasy numbers, although he arguably has never had a player as talented as Merriman at his disposal either. On top of a new coaching staff, Merriman will have a new ILB tandem playing alongside him this year. Veterans Donnie Edwards and Randall Godfrey are gone, and taking their place will be the inexperienced duo of Matt Wilhelm and Stephen Cooper. Neither of the new guys are likely to be as effective in coverage as Edwards was so that change could result in more coverage responsibilities for Merriman this year. Bottom line is that Merriman will almost certainly finish with double digit sacks once again this year, but last year's pace looks like a career year that is unlikely to be matched. Even if he manages to play all 16 games, a total of 12 sacks and 65 solos seems like a reasonable projection for him.