Faceoff - QB Steve McNair, Baltimore Ravens

Posted 6/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Chris Smith

At first I was surprised when asked to take on Steve McNair's upside in fantasy football this season. After all, I have him ranked 18th at the quarterback position which is nothing better than a depth player in almost all fantasy football leagues. However some of our other staff members have him down at 30th overall amongst quarterbacks which is surprising considering last season he struggled and still finished 17th.

Reasons for optimism

1. Familiarity breeds success: This will be McNair's 2nd season with the Ravens. Last year he didn't always look comfortable, but that was understandable as he was playing for a new team after 11 seasons with the same organization. Ravens head coach Brian Billick is on record this offseason that he expects McNair to play better than last season, when he led the Ravens to a franchise-best 13-3 record. "This is his system now. He knows it," Billick said. "To be able to start the offseason [camps] with that, that's kind of exciting to think what we might be able to do offensively with Steve really knowing the offense."
2. Past success: Aside from his injury-plagued 2004 campaign, McNair has had nine straight top-seventeen seasons including five inside the top-ten
3. Surrounding talent is really good: With Derrick Mason and the emerging Mark Clayton at receiver, Todd Heap at tight end and the newly-signed Willis McGahee at running back, the talent on the offensive side of the ball is quite skilled. McNair will have plenty of options and with what should be a more explosive running attack this season, McNair should have more room down the field to exploit via the passing game.
4. Finished well in 2006: Take away the Browns game in week fifteen where he was injured and McNair averaged 247 passing yards per game over his final eight starts with nine touchdowns thrown. He looked very comfortable in the offense, and he developed great chemistry with young, talented receiver Mark Clayton who emerged as a legitimate threat. He is also very comfortable getting the ball to Derrick Mason having played with him for many years in Tennessee.

In conclusion, there are many reasons to believe McNair will put together a nice season in 2007 with no legitimate reason to believe he will plummet to amongst the worst quarterbacks in fantasy football. While McNair shouldn't be counted on as a QB1 each week in fantasy football, he does have the experience and surrounding talent necessary to sneak into the top-14 this year.

Downside - by Andy Hicks

Once the Iron man of the NFL, Steve McNair is rusting away before our eyes.

Consider that he hasn't:

• Played a full season since 2002
• Rushed for more than 140 yards since 2002
• Scored more than 1 rushing touchdown since 2003
• Passed for more than 16 touchdowns since 2003
• Finished as a starting caliber QB since 2003

In his second year at Baltimore, McNair is expected to get the Ravens to the playoffs again. To help with the offense Baltimore traded for Willis McGahee, formerly of Buffalo. After the woeful performance of the running game in 2006, where the Ravens recorded the second-worst yards per carry in the league, despite running the ball 476 times, McGahee will be expected to shoulder most of the offensive workload.

Letting the run game dictate the Ravens offense is a better situation for the team considering McNair and fellow former Titan, Derrick Mason are at the end of their careers, while Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams are at the start of theirs.

McNair technically started all 16 regular season games in 2006, but was forced out very early in two games. He missed two games in 2003 and 2005, as well as 8 in 2004. McNair can no longer be relied upon every week and unless you can carry three quarterbacks, he makes for a risky proposition for bye week coverage or part of a QB committee. Baltimore has solid coverage in former first round pick Kyle Boller. In the two games he was called on for extensive duty, Boller posted QB ratings of 97 and 112. Boller posted better fantasy stats in those two games than McNair did for all bar three or four games.

McNair was once a great running QB, recording 20 rushing TDs in a three-year span in the late 90s and 12 more in a three-year stretch from 2001 to 2003. Expecting McNair to turn back the clock to those years is foolhardy at best. These days all McNair has is his passing game, which given the conservative nature of the Raven offense is not going to result in fantasy points for your team. When McNair plays, he'll record on average one passing TD a game. Also, based McNair's record over the last three years, he'll record a similar number of interceptions to go with that.

Steve McNair is a solid NFL quarterback, but please don't confuse that with fantasy prowess. McNair's name will be one of the players you will consider as your backup. It would be best to look for a player who is capable of big games, especially in bye week coverage. McNair would be better suited as part of a three-man QB committee, if you have the roster space. At best McNair would be worth a start only once or twice all year, as would most QBs in the fantasy free agent pool.