Faceoff - QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles

Posted 5/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mark Wimer

Through week 10 of 2005, Donovan McNabb was the top fantasy QB in the land in total fantasy points (192.2) and points per game (21.36). Through week 10 of 2006, Donovan McNabb was the top fantasy QB in the land in total fantasy points (229) and points per game (25.44). With Terrell Owens (2005) around and causing huge problems, without T.O. at all (2006) -- McNabb just takes the surrounding cast in Philadelphia and makes good things happen. When healthy, he's been a fantasy stud -- of course, the qualifier "when healthy" is the rub with McNabb lately.

McNabb has run into bad luck the last two years, starting with a progressively worsening sports hernia that plagued him during 2005, eventually leading to a season-ending surgery in late November of that year. Last year, he tore his right ACL in week 11 vs. the Titans and ended up having another season-ending surgery in late November.

The good news about these old injuries is this: neither one is the result of a degenerative condition (like a deteriorating meniscus cartilage in a knee, a condition that ended Curtis Martin and Marshall Faulk's NFL careers). In other good news, McNabb is right on schedule rehabbing his ACL injury, and as of May 14th, he is expected to resume his role of starting QB when the Eagles open training camp. "He's been throwing once a week, and he looks good in that area," HC Andy Reid said. "So, we're expecting him, when camp starts, to be able to participate." While knee injuries are not to be taken lightly, McNabb's ACL tear wasn't nearly as catastrophic as the knee injury that Daunte Culpepper is still struggling to recover from -- renowned Orthopedist Dr. James Andrews felt that McNabb had a good shot to start Game 1 this year from the very beginning of the rehab process, and Andrews is the leading expert on this type of injury in the nation.

The Eagles added speedy Kevin Curtis to the WR stable this offseason, and Reggie Brown made great strides last year, developing into a very respectable NFL-caliber receiver (46/816/8 receiving, a 17.7 YPC average). Brian Westbrook has logged between 616-703 yards receiving in each of his last three seasons, and L.J. Smith has caught 50+ balls and topped 600 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons. There is a wide arsenal of weapons for McNabb to deploy in the passing game against his NFL foes again this year.

To recap: Donovan McNabb was the top fantasy QB in the NFL when his seasons ended during the last two years. His rehabilitation is going well, and he returns to an offense that is well-stocked with veteran, talented receivers at all of the surrounding skill positions (RB, WR, and TE).

What's not to like here? Assuming his run of bad injury luck ends, McNabb has a shot at being the #1 fantasy QB in the land by season's end, and a top-5 finish should be well within his reach.

Downside - by Colin Dowling

Perhaps Donovan McNabb still has a lot of wins left in him. Maybe he has a lot of touchdowns and yards still stored up in his arm. That said, I can't help but think we've seen the best of Donovan McNabb. Consider...

• McNabb has missed close to 30% of the Eagles' games in the last three seasons.
• In his career, McNabb has missed 14% of the Eagles' regular season games.
• McNabb has failed to finish the season healthy four times in eight years (50%).

It would be easy to pick apart McNabb's passing numbers. It would be easy to talk about how he is not likely to be the threat in the rushing game that he was as a younger man. It would be easy to mention that his set of receivers as a group this season may be one of the worst he has had to work with in his career. However, those arguments would be overkill. All you really need to know about Donovan McNabb is that he has shown an inability to make it through a full season unscathed and uninjured, and in fantasy football, that is simply unacceptable. Furthermore, the Eagles themselves seem to subscribe to the theory that McNabb can not stay healthy considering they (a) re-signed A.J. Feeley (b) acquired Kelly Holcomb and (c) used their first draft selection, a second round pick, on a quarterback. No one wants to make it to the fantasy playoffs of their league only to look up and find their quarterback injured.

Even worse, if you happen to think prior injuries are no indicator of future injuries -- a point with which I tend to disagree when it comes to quarterbacks -- then you need look no further then McNabb's average draft position (ADP) when considering if he would be a solid fantasy selection. At present, McNabb is being selected as the seventh quarterback off the board, near the middle of the fifth round. As a matter of fact, Donovan McNabb has finished seventh or higher in fantasy points among quarterbacks exactly twice in eight seasons (2004 -- third, 2000 -- fifth).

To select Donovan McNabb as the seventh quarterback, you would be gambling that at the age of 30, he is capable of matching the best 25% of his career without the benefit of Terrell Owens (2004) or the rushing ability of his younger years (six touchdowns on the ground in 2000). Now, if I told you that young, improving players like Philip Rivers (QB11 in 2006) and Ben Roethlisberger (QB10) were among those available more then two rounds later, it would make passing on McNabb a no-brainer, wouldn't it?