Faceoff - QB Eli Manning, New York Giants

Posted 5/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Yudkin

Eli Manning is currently ranked as the #14 QB even though he ranked fourth and 11th the past two seasons. Those down on Manning this year have to consider how the retirement of Tiki Barber will impact the Giants offense as a whole. The team will have a long way to go to recoup the 1,600+ yards Tiki Barber gained on the ground last season.

Up-and-coming receivers Sinorice Moss and Steve Smith should go a long way in helping to improve the passing game, as will the return of Amani Toomer to the lineup. With upgrades, new additions, and better health on defensive, the offense should see the ball more often than it did in 2006 (New York ran 50 fewer offensive plays than the previous season).

Getting back to the loss of Barber, recent history suggests that the 2007 version of the Giants will see their passing production rise. In the past 15 years, several teams have lost elite running backs. Those teams saw a 15% drop off in team rushing yards and rushing TD but saw team passing totals increase by 15%.

• The 2006 Colts let Edgerrin James walk but their passing yardage went up 200 yards.
• The 2004 Broncos traded Clinton Portis but their passing totals jumped by 900 yards and eight TDs.
• The 2004 Dolphins lost Ricky Williams and saw their passing yards increase by 300 yards and their passing TD inch up by two TDs.
• The 1999 Colts traded Marshall Faulk but had their passing yardage shoot up by 450 yards.
• The 1999 Lions lost Barry Sanders to retirement and then upped their passing totals by almost 700 yards and 5 TDs.
• The 1995 49ers lost Ricky Watters but saw their passing totals jump up by 400 yards and six TDs.

In Manning's case, if he did see his numbers go up by 15%, that would give him 3,731 passing yards and 28 passing TDs, which would have ranked him 7th last year in the year-end QB rankings. He likely will be drafted as a QB2 but should be in line for QB1 production, especially if his accuracy and completion percentage keep improving.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

Eli Manning's statistics make him appear to be a starting quality fantasy QB, but they conceal poor play and inconsistency. Manning is just as likely to hamper your team as he is to help it. He gave his fantasy owners little to feel good about in 2006 and is not worth a pick as anything more than a backup fantasy QB.

Manning posted gaudy numbers in September, but his three touchdown performances against Philadelphia and Seattle were against defenses that had let up because they were protecting huge leads. Over the last 12 games of the 2006 season, Manning had over 200 yards passing in three of them -- two less than his number of games of with multiple interceptions in the same stretch.

Manning's fantasy production and play were barely adequate, and there's little reason to think 2007 will bring a revival. The team will have a new player protecting Manning's blind side, as they have parted ways with Luke Petitgout. Manning's most reliable target, Amani Toomer, is recovering from ACL surgery. The offseason saw the installation of Manning's QB coach, Kevin Gilbride, as offensive coordinator -- which might suggest a bump in production, except that Manning's play has plateaued under Gilbride. It's hard to chalk up his accuracy issues and mistakes to the offensive scheme instead of Manning himself.

The Giants have lost Tiki Barber, the engine of their offense, to retirement this offseason. In his place, they will employ Brandon Jacobs and Reuben Droughns, a combination that will not preoccupy opposing defenses. Manning is not primed for a breakout year; he's primed for a year that makes the Giants start to look elsewhere for the future of their QB position.

Manning is not even one of the top QBs to pick as a backup or second part of a QBBC. Other QBs in the 13-16 range, such as Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, and Philip Rivers, offer more upside as they settle into their offenses. QBs going after Manning, such as Alex Smith, J.P. Losman, and Jason Campbell, offer just as much upside with similar risk, except that they played their best ball late in 2006 instead of early in the season. There are too many viable options at backup fantasy QB to spend a pick on Eli Manning before the owner in your league attracted to the Manning family name decides to invest in the little brother.